Thanks to Mike Gesicki, I went one for three on my bold predictions last week. My season tally is at 8-18 (.308). My batting average for bold predictions is right in the sweet spot. This week’s bold predictions include a quarterback, two teammate wide receivers and a pair of opposing running backs.
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Fantasy Football Week 10 Bold Predictions
Justin Herbert is a Top-12 Quarterback in Week 10
Los Angeles’s season began with the expected play-calling from offensive coordinator Greg Roman. The veteran coach and Jim Harbaugh are known for their ground-and-pound tendencies. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Chargers were tied for the sixth-lowest situation-neutral pass rate (48%) and ran the ninth-fewest situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (56) through Week 4. Since their Week 5 bye, LA has had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) and is tied for the sixth-most situation-neutral plays per 60 minutes (64).
Predictably, Justin Herbert has benefited from the change. Through Week 5, Herbert was the QB32 in points per game (10.6). Since Week 6, he’s the QB14 in points per game (18.0). Additionally, Herbert has scored 24.1 and 19.5 fantasy points in the previous two games, finishing as the QB9 in Week 8 and the QB12 in Week 9.
He’s the QB18 in expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 10. However, I expect Herbert to finish as a top-12 quarterback against a pass-funnel defense. Since Week 6, the Titans are tied for facing the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%). Herbert can make them pay for their pass-funnel tendencies.
Amari Cooper Outscores Khalil Shakir in All Scoring Formats
The Bills, like the Chargers, have dialed up the pass. Since Week 7, Buffalo has the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%). This week, the Bills are also tied for the third-highest implied total (26.0). Therefore, it could be a fruitful week for Buffalo’s pass-catching weapons.
The ECR has Khalil Shakir as the WR24 in standard, the WR23 in half PPR and the WR23 in PPR in Week 10 versus WR32, WR33 and WR34, respectively, for Amari Cooper. Shakir has the benefit of more career reps with Josh Allen, and Cooper was out last week with a wrist injury.
Cooper has been a limited participant in practice through Thursday, setting the stage for a return, which will be critical for Buffalo’s passing attack if Keon Coleman‘s injury sidelines him. It makes sense for Shakir to be ranked ahead of Cooper at a blush.
Yet, a deeper dive into the matchup is encouraging for Cooper’s outlook and discouraging for Shakir’s. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Cooper’s two games played with the Bills (Week 7 and Week 8), he aligned wide 88.6% of the time, and Shakir was wide only 30.4% of the time. Shakir was in the slot at a 61.5% clip. Meanwhile, since Week 6, Indy has faced the eighth-highest target rate (42.2%) wide and the lowest target rate (25.0%) to the slot.
It makes sense for teams to avoid targeting the slot against the Colts. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kenny Moore has played 258 snaps in the slot versus 138 wide, and Moore is Indy’s best cornerback. Unless Allen wants to make his life more difficult, picking on Indy’s perimeter corners is the more straightforward path to success. In turn, Cooper should be busier than Shakir. Gamers picking between Cooper and Shakir in season-long leagues or DFS contests should choose Cooper.
James Conner Outscores Breece Hall in All Scoring Formats in Week 10
Breece Hall hasn’t lived up to his lofty preseason expectations, and things have worsened lately. Since Davante Adams joined Gang Green’s offense in Week 7, Hall tied for the RB15 in standard points per game (12.5), the RB19 in half PPR points per game (14.0) and the RB19 in PPR points per game (15.5).
Funny enough, James Conner was directly ahead of Hall in each of those formats, ranking as the RB14, RB18 and RB18 in standard, half PPR and PPR since Week 7. Nevertheless, Hall is the RB7 in ECR in all scoring formats, and Conner is the RB17, RB16 and RB17 in standard, half PPR and PPR this week.
The Jets are 1.5-point favorites against the host Cardinals. Yet, the gap between Hall and Conner doesn’t pass the sniff test. The Jets are a pass-happy team, and the Cardinals are a run-happy team. Since Week 7, the Jets have been tied for the ninth-lowest situation-neutral rush rate (41%), and the Cardinals have been tied for the fourth-highest rate (53%).
Moreover, teams have attacked the Cardinals through the air and the Jets on the ground. Since Week 7, Arizona’s defense is tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (65%) against them, and New York’s has faced the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (52%). Finally, Conner has been a more productive runner than Hall this year, and the latter’s PPR scamming has dried up with a second target-hog wideout in the mix. As a result, I’m predicting Conner will outscore Hall this week in all formats.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
