FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
It’s Thanksgiving Week in the NFL, featuring three games to feast on Thursday, plus a bonus Black Friday contest the following day. This special edition of our weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article serves up one must-know stat (turkey) nugget for each position, plus a bonus Black Friday stat for dessert.
These insights will give you something extra to be thankful for this week. Click on each author’s byline to savor the full article. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
2024 Thanksgiving Slate
- Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
- New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
- Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (Black Friday Game)
TL;DR Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Special
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stat
Jared Goff is currently ranked as the QB12 in the FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) for Week 13. That’s also exactly where he ranks in scoring so far this season — just barely squeezing into the QB1 range. However, this doesn’t set up as a week in which Goff should be trusted as your QB1. The Bears’ defense ranks as the third-toughest matchup for opposing quarterbacks, giving up just 13.2 points per game. They also rank seventh-lowest in dropback EPA per play allowed.
If we’re looking for reasons for optimism, the Bears rank closer to average with the 13th-fewest passing yards allowed per game, but they make up for it by giving up just 0.82 passing touchdowns per contest (the third-fewest in the league). To be fair, Ben Johnson could probably scheme up a productive day for Goff against just about any defense in the league. But, with the Lions 10-point favorites at home on Thanksgiving Day, he likely won’t need to. We know Detroit is happy to run up the score against outmatched opponents, but they’re more likely to do it on the ground this week, leading to a down fantasy outing from Goff.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stat
Thanksgiving’s three-game slate kicks off with an NFC North matchup between the last-place Bears and first-place Lions. Furthermore, it’s D’Andre Swift’s first game against the team that drafted him in 2020. The veteran is the RB18 for the year, averaging 12.9 half-PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has been wildly inconsistent. Swift has scored 18.9+ fantasy points in 36.4% of the games. By comparison, the former Georgia star has scored eight or fewer fantasy points in 45.5% of the games, including two of the past three.
Furthermore, Swift has been in a slump lately. He has averaged 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 10.4 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks, totaling one touchdown. More importantly, Swift has played fewer than 58% of the snaps in both games under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Meanwhile, Detroit has held running backs to 14.7 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered 9.7 or fewer fantasy points to running backs in 45.5% of their games, including 3.5 to Jonathan Taylor last week.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stat
Much more valuable in PPR leagues than in standard scoring leagues, Wan’Dale Robinson gobbles up receptions but offers only modest yardage and touchdown totals. Robinson has 61 receptions on the season and is on pace for 94. Yet, he’s scored only two touchdowns and is on pace for just 682 receiving yards.
He’s averaging 7.2 yards per catch and 5.0 yards per target. Those are the types of numbers you normally see from running backs, not wide receivers. But in PPR leagues, all those empty-calorie receptions have some benefit. The Giants face some wobbly pass defenses in the coming weeks, so Robinson might be worth adding in PPR formats.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stat
Luke Schoonmaker’s 10 targets in Week 11 didn’t bump up his roster percentage high enough before Week 12’s games, but you can be sure his roster percentage is going through the roof after 55 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders. With Jake Ferguson likely to miss another game, Schoonmaker should be back on the field for the majority of the snaps once again on Thanksgiving.
The encouraging thing for Schoonmaker is there could be room for more usage. He played just 65% of the snaps and was complemented by 50% of snaps from Brevyn Spann-Ford. Schoonmaker did see an increase in snaps from 53% in Week 11 to 65% in Week 12, so we can hope for a large jump like that in Week 13 against the Giants. The Cowboys have been the fourth-highest team by passing rate over expectation the last three weeks. Even with Cooper Rush, it’s clear Schoonmaker can be streaming worthy while Ferguson is out.
Bonus Black Friday Must-Know Stat
It may seem ironic to be calling Noah Gray a stash coming off his second straight finish inside the top five of fantasy tight ends. However, outside of the last two weeks (in which he scored four touchdowns), Gray has averaged just 3.7 half-PPR points per game. We have no reason to believe those big games are anything more than a fluke. He did post his season-high in route participation rate at 66% in Week 11, but that number promptly fell right back to 49% on Sunday.
At a season average participation rate of 42%, Gray is not a startable player. However, these two big weeks were a reminder of the fact he is one of the best No. 2 TEs in the league. Gray’s 76.8 Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade ranks eighth among all tight ends, above plenty of starting tight ends (including teammate Travis Kelce).
If Kelce were to miss time — which becomes more and more likely as the Chiefs start looking toward the playoffs — Gray would immediately be a TE1. In deeper formats where you can afford to stash a handcuff tight end (which I usually wouldn’t recommend, for the record), Gray joins Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews in the top tier of one-injury-away options.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
