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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 10
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Tua Tagovailoa has played well since returning from a concussion, completing 80.3% of his pass attempts. The veteran quarterback has averaged 232.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 16.1 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks. More importantly, he is coming off his best performance in 2024, completing 89.3% of his pass attempts, totaling two touchdowns and 17.5 fantasy points against a talented Buffalo Bills defense. Tagovailoa had only three passing touchdowns over his other three games this season before totaling two on Sunday against the division rivals.
The Rams “held” the Las Vegas Raiders quarterbacks to 0.4 fantasy points in Week 7. However, they have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. By comparison, Los Angeles has surrendered 2.3 passing touchdowns and 19.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in the other six contests since Week 1, surrendering 18+ in back-to-back weeks. Furthermore, Geno Smith had three passing touchdowns and 22.1 fantasy points last week against the division rivals despite missing DK Metcalf. Tagovailoa should have his second consecutive two-passing touchdown performance.
Coming off a bye, San Francisco ranks second in total yards per game (412.4) and is tied for sixth in EPA/play (0.06). Perennial fantasy superstar Christian McCaffrey has returned to practice this week.
The 49ers have been more efficient throwing than running on the season. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards per play (7.9). However, Brock Purdy is down in completion percentage (64.5%) and yards per attempt (8.7) relative to 2023. Purdy is being blitzed more this season but is keeping the 49ers’ offense productive under pressure.
San Francisco is fifth-best in sacks allowed (16) and fourth overall in passing yardage per game (253.4). Purdy is the fantasy QB10 with an opportunity to improve in the second half with his weapons getting healthy.
The pass-catchers in San Francisco have faced injuries all season, but George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are on track to play in Week 10.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Things haven’t played out how the Dolphins hoped in 2024 but a get-right game looms against the Rams, who have recently righted their ship. The Rams’ run defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and has allowed a middle-of-the-table 4.38 yards per carry. Where they should be worried is the receiving game, as they are giving up 25+ yards in each of the last three games to running backs.
De’Von Achane is averaging a 20% target share in games with Tua Tagovailoa and has had at least six catches and 50 receiving yards in each of Tagovailoa’s three full games, scoring two touchdowns as well. Those kinds of receiving lines would be worth over 16 PPR points per game, something many wide receivers would be envious of.
The Rams play the fifth-most single-high coverage, which Tagovailoa leads the league in catchable ball rate against, mainly because he ranks 34th in average depth of target (aDOT) against these looks. Achane has seen six targets in the last two games versus single-high coverage, according to Fantasy Points.
The Cowboys’ season has taken a turn for the worse with Dak Prescott (likely) out for several weeks. Which is a shame, because Rico Dowdle was just starting to build some momentum. On Sunday, with Ezekiel Elliott inactive, Dowdle was given 18 opportunities (second-most in a game this season) and he had a 71% snap share, by far his highest of the season.
He also ran a route on 48% of the snaps, his most of the season, which is especially encouraging with how often Dallas will be passing the ball. It was also great to see that Dalvin Cook (two opportunities on seven snaps) was essentially a non-factor. While I would normally suggest this as a sell-high point for Dowdle, his value is diminished because of the Prescott injury, so I would prefer to hold onto him for now.
After the Patriots decided to do goofy things earlier this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has returned to getting bell-cow usage. Over the last two games, he has played at least 74% of snaps in each game while averaging 19 touches and 59.5 total yards. Stevenson has remained awesome on a per-touch basis. Among 47 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt.
Stevenson is in a low-key, great spot this week. Since Week 5, Chicago has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the eighth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs (Stevenson – 56.1% gap run rate).
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR – TEN)
If all these first-rounders rostered in over 30% of leagues are too mainstream for you, consider Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. A five-year vet who has never reached 500 yards in a single season during his NFL career, Westbrook-Ikhine is not exactly the kind of player normally thought of as an upside waiver wire stash. However, coming off four straight weeks with touchdowns, there are a few things to like about his profile.
By far the most notable stat that has me featuring Westbrook-Ikhine in this article is his route participation over the last two weeks. Along with Calvin Ridley, Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on at least 91.7% of the Titans’ dropbacks in both Week 8 and Week 9. It’s not surprising that those were his two best weeks of the season, including a five-catch, 50-yard, one-touchdown performance on Sunday.
Yes, route participation isn’t everything. But the power of simply being out there on a team that will be playing from behind often should not be underestimated. As long as the Titans keep concentrating their wide receiver routes on their top two players, Westbrook-Ikhine is interesting as a deep-league option.
Second on the week in target share (42.3%) and 50th in total air yards (59) is not a combination you see often in today’s NFL. Call it the Daniel Jones effect, or whatever you want it to be, but Malik Nabers seeing only a 5.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) has to be some kind of anomaly for this young rookie receiver. It is. Nabers’ aDOT on the season is over 10.6 yards, but for one week, the Giants thought they should cut that in half.
Nabers is near the top of the wide receiver leaderboards in many categories, including target share (28.7%), air yards share (40.9%), and overall air yards (895). He has done this by the Giants not being afraid to target him downfield 10-15 yards from the line of scrimmage. He is a talented enough playmaker that he can go get balls, even if Jones’ accuracy is somewhat off. Hopefully, this is just an outlier, and we don’t see many days for Nabers where he has excellent usage but inefficient production.
Cedric Tillman is going to be a league winner this year. In the three games that Tillman has played without Amari Cooper, Tillman has averaged an incredible 18.7 half-PPR points per game. Though he’s scored three touchdowns in that span, I don’t find his production unsustainable.
In the last three weeks, the second-year receiver is running a route on 88% of the team’s dropbacks and leads the team in both air yards share (35%) and target share (24%). While the 10+ targets per game average may not hold, pass volume for Cleveland should remain high as their 70% pass rate on the year leads the league and Jameis Winston has attempted at least 40 throws in the two games he’s started. I’m in.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
An athletic fourth-round rookie out of Penn State, Theo Johnson has been decently involved in the Giants’ offense all season, with a 68% route participation rate for the year. However, he hasn’t seen many targets, never reaching even a 15% target share in this very concentrated offense… until last week, in which he posted a 23% target share, catching three of his six looks for 51 yards and his first career touchdown.
Now, he gets a good chance to follow up that breakout performance with another solid week as he faces off against a Panthers defense that has been shredded by TEs so far this season. Carolina has given up 15.0 points per game to opposing TEs, easily the most of any team in the league. A solid chunk of that production has indeed been touchdowns, but sometimes a lucky TD is all you can hope for with a streaming TE. If you are looking for a punt play at TE this week, Johnson is probably the best choice available in most leagues.
Otton has been a fantasy star this season. The third-year pro is the TE3 for the year, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. After a slow start, he has been outstanding with Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) out of the lineup. Otton has averaged 10.3 targets and 18.8 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, totaling three receiving touchdowns in the past two contests. Furthermore, the former Washington star has had at least eight receptions for 77 receiving yards in three consecutive games.
However, Otton put up those numbers against three teams that struggle to defend tight ends. Unfortunately, he won’t have a fantasy-friendly matchup before the Buccaneers’ bye week. The 49ers have held tight ends to 7.8 fantasy points per game, the 10th-fewest in the NFL. They have surrendered fewer than 5.4 fantasy points to tight ends in half of their matchups. Furthermore, San Francisco has given up only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends, with none since Week 5. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers consistently double-team Otton.
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