The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

• LAR -1.5, O/U 48.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Los Angeles is 11th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate. Seattle continues to sprint and pass a ton, ranking fourth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kenneth Walker III
• Kyren Williams
• DK Metcalf
• Puka Nacua
• Cooper Kupp

Metcalf missed last week’s game (knee). We’ll see what his practice reports and availability look like for Week 9, but assuming he is available this week, he should be in your fantasy lineups.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith has seen his stock drop somewhat, as he is now QB14 in fantasy points per game. He has been propped up by his passing volume all season, ranking first in passing attempts and passing yards. His per-dropback metrics have continued to tell the real story about his play. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. Saying all that, this is a good spot for Smith to post his sixth QB1 performance of the season. The only worry for Smith is his offensive line. He has faced the 14th-fastest time to pressure. That’s not great against a pass rush that is ninth in pressure rate and second in quarterback hurries. If he can navigate pressure well or his offensive line can hold up, Smith can walk away with a good day. Los Angeles remains a pushover pass defense, allowing the seventh-highest success rate per dropback and passer rating, the second-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-highest CPOE.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

With all of his weapons back last week, Stafford balled out as the QB5 for the week. Now, he is primed for an encore performance against a bottom-five pass defense. Overall, Stafford is the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 18th in yards per attempt, 25th in CPOE, and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, the second-highest passer rating, and the fourth-most fantasy points allowed via passing.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett looks like a wide receiver on the back nine of his NFL career as the WR51 in fantasy points per game. He has earned a 13.9% target share with 1.55 YPRR and an 18% first-read share. Among 98 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 55th in separation and 67th in route win rate. However, this week’s matchup could help boost his season-long numbers. The Rams have the eighth-highest single-high rate (58.2%). Against single-high, Lockett has seen his YPRR climb to 1.75. Los Angeles’ struggles have been mainly against perimeter wide receivers, as they have allowed the fifth-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to the position. Lockett gets a boost in the flex ranks this week.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Robinson flashed a nose for the end zone last week with two scores with a full-strength Rams offense. Outside of those two scores, though, his day wasn’t very eventful, so I don’t want people chasing touchdowns. This season, Robinson has a 12.4% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Since Week 4, Seattle has ranked 12th in single-high rate. Against single-high, Robinson has seen his YPRR increase to 1.46. It’s not an overwhelming efficiency bump, but it’s worth bringing up. Robinson is a deep league or desperation flex only. Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest fantasy points per game and the seventh-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant is a wonderful tight-end streamer this week. While his first-glance optics aren’t great, bear with me here. He is the TE23 in fantasy points per game and hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. Since Week 6, he has had an 11.8% target share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 12.3% first-read share. His per-route efficiency really jumps off the page. The Rams also have been ripped to shreds by tight ends. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Colby Parkinson (TE)

Parkinson also finds himself hitting the streamer radar this week. He is the TE24 in fantasy points per game, with six red zone targets in his last six games. He has a 15% target share with 1.14 YPRR and a 13% first-read share. Nothing outside of the usage inside the red zone will perk up the senses, but the matchup is glorious. Seattle has allowed the tenth-highest yards per reception to tight ends and the eighth-most fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njiba hasn’t had the breakout season I was hoping for this year, but that doesn’t mean he has been terrible as the WR37 in fantasy points per game. He has seen six deep targets and six red zone looks in his last five games. He has a 19.7% target share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 22% first-read share. Among 98 qualifying wide receivers, he is 51st in separation and 77th in route win rate. Neither of those metrics are great, and I don’t think they will improve after this week’s game. Los Angeles has held slot receivers to the fewest receiving yards per game and the fewest fantasy points per game.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• MIN -5, O/U 46.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Joe Flacco under center, Indy ranked ninth in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
• Minnesota has the sixth-slowest neutral pace with the ninth-best neutral passing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Aaron Jones
• Jonathan Taylor
• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Darnold continues to surprise in the fantasy realm as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing touchdowns, sixth in CPOE, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate. He should keep the QB1 train rolling down the tracks this week. Indy continues to bleed out production to passers, giving up the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest passer rating, the 11th-highest CPOE, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing.

Joe Flacco (QB)

Well, it happened. The Colts benched Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco. We’ll see how long this lasts, but here we go for Week 9. In Flacco’s two starts, he has finished as the QB4 and the QB18 in weekly scoring. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 30th in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate, and he has the fourth-highest off-target rate. Not great, Bob. We’ll see how well Flacco holds up against Brian Flores and his blitz-heavy approach. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate (41.4%). Against the blitz, among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, Flacco ranks 29th in passing grade and 35th in yards per attempt. If he can stay upright, he should post decent numbers through the air. Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns while ranking 14th in CPOE and 15th in yards per attempt.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

The Colts passing attack will get an infusion of volume this week with Joe Flacco back under center. That can only help Pittman, who has had a tough season. We also need to understand that, when looking at Pittman’s season, he likely isn’t 100%. I’m old enough to remember when he almost went on the injured reserve list with a back issue. In Flacco’s two starts, Pittman had a 14.5% target share with only 1.01 YPRR and a 15% first-read share. He did tie the team lead with two end-zone targets. Pittman should see more volume this week, but it’s not guaranteed. The matchup is good for him, though, as Minnesota has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs has been playing out of his mind this season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game while seeing seven red zone targets in his six games played. He’s been a top 20 wide receiver in weekly scoring in four of six games. In Flacco’s two starts, Downs has had a 25.3% target share, 2.14 YPRR, and a 31.7% first-read share. All of these metrics are elite. Minnesota has been gashed by slot receivers this season and will be again in Week 9 by Downs. The Vikings have allowed the third-highest fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest receiving yards per game to the position.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Let’s keep this simple. Pierce’s role in this passing attack is as the deep ball specialist. 55.2% of his target volume has come from deep targets. Minnesota ranks 15th in deep passing yards allowed while giving up the 11th-highest passer rating and ranking 14th in adjusted completion rate on throws 20 yards or further downfield. Pierce has seen more than five targets in only two games this season, so if you’re flexing him, it is with the belief that he can cash in with one or two deep shots this week. The avenue exists in this matchup for him to possibly do so.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison’s touchdown luck from last season hasn’t been replicated in 2024, and we’ve seen his fantasy stock plummet because of it. Addison is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with three deep targets this season and only one red zone look. Addison has a 16.9% target share, a 31% air-yard share, 1.83 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. Indy has utilized single high with 57.1% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Addison has seen his usage increase while his efficiency has taken a hit with an 18.4% target share and 26% first-read share, but he has had 1.65 YPRR against the coverage. Addison retains his WR3/4 or middling flex appeal this week against a Colts secondary that ranks 18th in fantasy points per game and eighth in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

Hockenson should be active this week, but there’s no way to project how big of a role he will play. You’ve had him sitting on the bench or in your IR spot all season, so what’s one more week? If you are in desperation mode in a deep league, or if you’re a psycho and play in a start two-tight-end league and have to start him, I get it. Indy has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, so at least the matchup is conducive to him possibly paying off with a touchdown on a snap count.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• KC -9, O/U 45.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Chiefs are tenth in neutral pace but a nauseating 18th in neutral passing rate.
• The Bucs have taken a similar snail approach to pace (third-slowest) while ranking 11th in neutral passing rate.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Kelce
• Cade Otton

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Mahomes remains a snooze-worthy QB2 for fantasy. He hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 1 of this season. He is 15th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, eighth in CPOE, and 21st in fantasy points per dropback. I’ll say this is a nice matchup through the air for Mahomes to break his QB2 weekly finish streak. The Bucs have allowed the third-highest success rate per dropback, the 12th-highest yard per attempt, and the tenth-highest CPOE.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield found a way to get it done last week as the QB7 in fantasy. Mayfield has been the model of consistency this season. He has finished as the QB7 or higher in weekly scoring in every game except one this season. Overall, he is the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He is tenth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, sixth in passer rating, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. If there was a team to break Mayfield’s streak of awesomeness, it could be the Chiefs, who have allowed the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the tenth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the tenth-lowest CPOE.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Hunt has been a top 24 back in each of his three full starts as “the guy” for Kansas City (RB5, RB11, RB23). He has averaged 24.6 touches with only 81 total yards. Volume has been king for Hunt, while efficiency has been harder to come by. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. He still hasn’t managed one explosive run with his 84 rushing attempts. Hunt has another good matchup on the ground this week to rack up volume against. The Bucs have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the 13th-most rushing yards per game, and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Worthy has been a hollow source of volume since Rashee Rice went down. Last week, it was much the same. He had a 64.3% route share, a 21.1% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share, with only 37 receiving yards to show for it. Maybe this is the week he finally converts the strong usage into fantasy points. Time is running out because once Hopkins is fully integrated into this offense, I think he will take the WR1 crown and compete weekly with Travis Kelce for the team lead in targets. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Last week, Shepard played 54.3% of his snaps from the slot, which will come in handy this week. He sadly only drew an 8% target share and 6.1% first-read share with 0.51 YPRR, but that could easily change this week. The weakness in the Kansas City secondary has been with defending tight ends and the slot. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers this season. Shepard could explode with a healthy stat line this week and surprise people if he retains the primary slot role in Week 9.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rachaad White (RB)

Over the last two weeks, White has been awesome, primarily splitting work with Bucky Irving. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 89 total yards with weekly finishes as the RB2 and RB17. Among 43 qualifying backs, White ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, the fantasy points train gets derailed this week for White against a tough Kansas City defense. The Chiefs have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate. They have also held backs to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game, so White likely can’t use the passing game usage to save him in Week 9.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Over the last two weeks, Irving has been the RB16 and RB18 in weekly scoring, averaging 14 touches and 80.5 total yards. He has played 35-42% of the snaps. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate, fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. This is a good week to consider flexing another player over Irving. The Chiefs have allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing yards per game, and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate. They have also held backs to the 11th-lowest receiving yards per game, so Irving likely can’t use the passing game usage to save him in Week 9.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Last week, Hopkins only had a 33.3% route share and a 7.9% target share. His route share likely climbs this week, but like with Amari Cooper, we can’t be too aggressive with our ramp-up expectations. Asking wide receivers to absorb complex playbooks quickly and ascend to full-time roles immediately is a bit much. Could Hopkins have a 70% route share this week? It’s possible. It’s also possible that he is sitting in the 40-50% range with a target share in the mid-teens, and you’re praying that he scores a touchdown to save you from a poor fantasy lineup decision. Sit Hopkins again this week, as we need to see how his role expands in Week 9 before starting him with confidence.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

Last week, McMillan had an 82.4% route share, a 14% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, 0.83 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. He didn’t do much with the volume, with only 35 receiving yards. He didn’t take over the “Chris Godwin role” as many hoped, as he played 71.4% of his snaps from the perimeter. This week, everyone should be sitting McMillan in a dreadful matchup with the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Trey Palmer (WR)

If you picked up Palmer off the waiver wire, I’m sorry, but he’s droppable. Last week, with a 70% route share, he only managed to draw a 4% target share and an 8.1% air-yard share. He’s Tampa Bay’s new cardio king. Let him burn those calories on the waiver wire.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*