The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -9, O/U 46.5
• Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5, Denver has ranked 14th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last four games, Baltimore has been 16th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral rushing rate.

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Nix is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with QB1 outings in three of his last four games (QB8, QB9, QB2). Since Week 5, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 19th in yards per attempt, seventh in passing touchdowns, sixth in CPOE, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. His rushing ability has been surprising all year, as he ranks fifth in red zone carries, fourth in rushing yards, and third in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Nix should post another QB1 week against Baltimore, who has allowed the most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest CPOE.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Only Courtland Sutton had a route share above 48% last week. No other Denver pass catcher is viable in fantasy right now, as the team is running a full-blown committee with its receiving depth chart. Last week, Sutton finished with a season-high of 100 receiving yards and eight grabs as the WR21 for the week. He could follow that up with another box score stuffer in Week 9. Overall, Sutton has a 21.7% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 1.58 YPRR, and a 29.9% first-read share. He faces a Baltimore secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Williams fell flat last week in a smash matchup with Carolina as Nix and the passing game stole the show. This week, Williams is headed toward a dreadful day against one of the league’s best run defenses. Williams is the RB32 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in snap share, 11th in weighted opportunities, and fourth in targets among backs. He has averaged 14.7 touches and 64.9 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers is the WR26 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in deep targets among wide receivers. He has not seen a red zone target since Week 2, so his chances of scoring a touchdown weekly are slim. We’ll see how much he is impacted by the addition of Diontae Johnson moving forward, but I’m more worried about him receiving shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain this week. Surtain hasn’t shadowed since Week 4, but that doesn’t mean he won’t this week, especially considering how consolidated the Ravens target tree is. Surtain followed D.K. Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Garrett Wilson on 60.4%-95.8% of their routes. None of them surpassed 30 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Flowers has had a 25.3% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. These market shares will be dented moving forward once Johnson is up to speed, but again, the bigger worry for his Week 9 outlook is Surtain. Denver has allowed the tenth-lowest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

Johnson follows the same must-sit protocol as previously traded wide receivers this season. With a limited window of opportunity to learn the playbook and build rapport with Lamar Jackson, there’s no way to start Johnson with any confidence this week, both from a snap share and target share projection. It’s not like this is a wonderful matchup either, where he could still succeed on a limited workload. Denver has allowed the tenth-lowest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman has been Baltimore’s deep ball specialist this season. The math has been simple. If a team struggles versus deep passing, then he is in play as a flex. Well, Denver has been good versus deep passing, allowing the sixth-fewest deep passing yards per game with the sixth-lowest CPOE. Also, now with Diontae Johnson in town, Batemen’s snap share weekly could be an issue if the team doesn’t transition into a more 11 personnel heavy offense. If they still deploy multiple tight-end sets aplenty, Bateman’s snaps will be hurt, and that could begin this week to an extent. Sit Bateman.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Last week, Andrews saw his highest route share since Week 2 (67.4%). Since Week 5, he has been the TE7 in fantasy points per game with a 14.1% target share, 2.48 YPRR, three end zone targets, and a 15.7% first-read share. Andrews could own more of the tight end route share in this offense if they transition to more 11 personnel with only one tight end on the field at a time. He faces a tough matchup this week against a Denver defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Isaiah Likely (TE)

Likely is a sit candidate with Baltimore’s multiple tight-end personnel rate up in the air. If the Ravens utilize more 11 personnel from the jump this week, the easy candidate to see a possible snap cut is Likely. Last week, his route share dipped to 48.8%. While he compensated by converting all of his targets (four, 10.5% target share) into 47 receiving yards, if his route share dips into the 30% range, it will be a coffin nail to his already meager fantasy value.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -1.5, O/U 44.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 4, Chicago has had the sixth-best neutral pace while ranking second in neutral rushing rate. In that same timeframe, Arizona has been third in neutral pace and fifth in neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• James Conner
• D’Andre Swift
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Last week, Williams struggled for most of the game. Through three quarters, he had a 30.8% completion rate, 36 passing yards, and 2.7 yards per attempt. He racked up nearly all of his production in the fourth quarter. We’ll see if he can bounce back this week in a great spot. Prior to his Week 8 issues, he had back-to-back QB1 games (QB6, QB1). Overall, he is the QB19 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 28th in yards per attempt and CPOE, 23rd in passer rating, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate. Arizona has been a wonderful matchup for quarterbacks. They have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the 13th-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. Williams should have a stronger game this week and flirt with QB1 production.

DJ Moore (WR)

Moore is the WR30 in fantasy points per game, ranking 13th in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets among wide receivers. He has seen a 22.9% target share, a 30.3% air-yard share, and a 27.7% first-read share while producing 48.7 receiving yards per game and 1.44 YPRR. In Week 8, it was very interesting that he was third on the team in target share (16.7%) and was second in first-read share (23.1%). We’ll see if he reclaims his top spot in the pecking order in Week 9 or if this is the beginning of a trend. Arizona has been giving to perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen hasn’t produced like many had hoped this year. He is the WR54 in fantasy points per game, with only one game inside the top 24 wideouts in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen better usage of late, with three red zone targets in his last three games. Overall, he has a 20.1% target share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. We’ll see if he can take advantage of a solid matchup in the slot this week, but it’s tough to trust him as anything more than a dice roll WR3/flex. Arizona has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Odunze has had a rough rookie season as the WR65 in fantasy points per game. He has only one game with a WR2 or better weekly finish this week. His usage has been better recently in the red zone, with six targets inside the 20-yard line in the last six games. Did the Bears flip the script after the bye and install Odunze as the new WR1? It’s a one-game sample, so I won’t get ahead of myself and say that, but Odunze’s Week 8 usage was interesting despite the snooze-worthy box score (three receptions and 41 receiving yards). Odunze led the team in Week 8 in target share (25%), air-yard share (41.1%), YPRR (1.71), and first-read share (30.8%). We’ll see if that was a blip on the radar or a snippet of things to come. Odunze has just as good of a chance as Moore and Allen to pop off in Week 9. Arizona has been giving to perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison Jr. popped up with a big game in Week 8, pulling up his season-long ranking to WR31 in fantasy points per game. That game was encouraging, as is his ranking of 13th in deep targets among wide receivers, but Harrison Jr. still only has four red zone targets this season. He hasn’t seen a look inside the 20-yard line from Kyler Murray since Week 4. I’ve discussed his coverage splits weekly, so people shouldn’t be surprised with this information. It could be another big week for Harrison Jr. against a Bears’ secondary that has the fifth-highest rate of single high (59.8%). Against single high, Harrison Jr. has had a 25.5% target share, a 40.3% air-yard share, 2.92 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share. Chicago started the year hot but has since regressed into a middle-of-the-road matchup for perimeter wide receivers, ranking 16th in receiving yards per game and 19th in fantasy points per game allowed. The Bears have also recently had issues defending the deep ball. Since Week 4, they have allowed the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the 11th-most passing yards per game to deep passing. Harrison leads the team in deep targets.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet is coming off a down game, but he is still the TE8 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. He only has one red zone target in his last four games, though. Kmet has a 13.5% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 12.1% first-read share. This is a neutral matchup for Kmet as Arizona is 14th in receiving yards per game and 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray’s season has been a rollercoaster, with four QB1 outings and four games as the QB15 or lower in weekly scoring. It also shows up in his passing stats. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 12th in passer rating, 19th in CPOE, and 36th in highly accurate throw rate. His rushing has helped him immensely, as he is 12th in carries per game, fourth in rushing yards per game, and seventh in rushing touchdowns. This week, he has another tough matchup coming up. The Bears have put a hurting on quarterbacks, allowing the lowest passer rating, the fewest passing touchdowns, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Wilson is the WR55 in fantasy points per game with three weeks as a WR3 in weekly fantasy scoring this season. He has three red zone targets in his last four games. Wilson is second on the team in deep targets (six), which could come in handy this week. Since Week 4, Chicago has allowed the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the 11th-most passing yards per game to deep passing. While his role in the deep passing game should help him, the coverage shell matchup this week doesn’t do him any favors. Chicago has the fifth-highest rate of single high (59.8%). Against single high, Wilson has had a 17% target share, a 23.1% air-yard share, only 1.35 YPRR, and a 19.7% first-read share. Against single-high teams, the Cardinals’ passing attack has heavily flowed through Harrison Jr. and McBride. This week, you’re really hoping for him to convert a deep target against this secondary to pay off as a flex. The Bears are 16th in receiving yards per game and 19th in fantasy points per game against perimeter wide receivers.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -7.5, O/U 45.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Eagles are 15th in neutral pace with the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL.
• Jacksonville is 13th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• DeVonta Smith

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Evan Engram (TE)

Last year without Christian Kirk, Engram went nuts as the TE3 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 25.5% target share and 25.6% first-read share with 1.79 YPRR. Engram has more target competition this season, but his usage is about to spike massively starting in Week 9. Since Week 3, Philly has transitioned to a two-high heavy secondary with the sixth-highest rate (54%). Against two high, Engram has led the way with a 22.6% target share, 1.70 YPRR, and a 23.8% first-read share. Engram should be the first person Lawrence is looking for this week when he drops back to pass. Philly has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but it might not matter this week with how much volume Engram should see in Week 9.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence is the QB16 with two QB1 games this season. I was hoping he would blossom into a high-end QB1 this season, but it hasn’t happened, as Jacksonville has been struggling to find its way this season. Lawrence is 13th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces an improving Philly pass defense when half of the receiving depth chart is banged up. It’s not good. Lawrence could struggle this week. Philly has kept quarterbacks in check with the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns, the 11th-lowest CPOE, and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback allowed.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Bigsby has operated as the team’s workhorse over the last two weeks with at least 66% of the snaps while averaging 23 touches and 102 total yards. Bigsby could retain this role even if Etienne returns this week. While his snap share could drop to nearly 50% if Etienne is back, I do think Bigsby holds onto the lion’s share of the early down work. Bigsby ranks fifth in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby will need every ounce of efficiency this week against a tough Eagles run defense. Philly has allowed the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-lowest gap success rate (Bigsby 50.4% gap).

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne opened this week with a limited practice. This has been the trend, and he has been continually ruled out weekly. I’ll update his status on Friday with the hope that he can get a full session in by Friday and play in Week 9.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. is the WR13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in deep targets among wide receivers. He has four red zone targets across his last three games. Thomas Jr. has a 19.4% target share, a 28.1% air-yard share, 2.81 YPRR, and a 23.3.% first-read share. Since Week 3, Philly has transitioned to a two-high heavy secondary with the sixth-highest rate (54%). Against two high, Thomas Jr. has seen his target share decline to 15.2% with 2.15 YPRR and a 19.2% first-read share. The team will likely have to bump up his usage this week with Kirk gone, but the Jags passing attack will flow through Evan Engram this week. Philly has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Parker Washington (WR)

Washington steps back into the starting lineup this week after Christian Kirk‘s season-ending injury. Last year, in Weeks 13-18, as the Jag’s starting slot, he had a 59.8% route share, an 8.2% target share, 0.80 YPRR, and a 7.9% first-read share. Nothing here screams that he is a player to be highly considered for a flex spot this week. If that isn’t enough, since Philly made Cooper DeJean their starting nickel, they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Gabe Davis (WR)

Davis is dealing with a shoulder injury. He practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He’s no sure thing to play this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Goedert logged a DNP. This could be another week of the Grant Calcaterra show. Check back on Friday.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

• DET -3.5, O/U 48
• Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Green Bay is 17th in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Detroit is 16th in neutral pace with the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jordan Love
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Love is dealing with a minor groin issue (per MRI), but he’s pushing to play this week. Green Bay has historically been conservative with injuries, so if he suits up he should be good to go. I’ll update his status further on Friday. If he’s ruled out, we’ll get the Malik Willis show in Week 9.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff has become a dependable QB1 as the QB11 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in three of his last four games. Goff is tenth in passing yards per game, first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Goff should have a productive day against a secondary that has allowed the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed has been quiet in recent weeks. He hasn’t had more than 55 receiving yards in any game since Week 5. That could change this week. Reed is the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He has seven deep targets but only two red zone targets over his last four games. Reed has a 17.1% target share, 2.68 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. I expect the Lions to utilize single-high heavily this week against Green Bay. In their two meetings last year, they utilized it with 59.9% of their defense snaps. This season overall, they have utilized single high with 55.6% of their defensive snaps. They had a brief dalliance with two high in Weeks 3-5, but they have utilized single high on at least 60.8% of their snaps in their four other games this season. Against single high, Reed has ranked third on the team in TPRR (20%) with 2.65 YPRR (second-best) and an 18.4% first-read share (second-best). Detroit has been victimized by slot receivers all year, allowing the most fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to the position.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs is the WR39 in fantasy points per game with two top 15 wide receiver finishes in his last three games. Across his last four games, he has four red zone targets. Overall, he has had an 18.7% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, 2.01 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share. I expect the Lions to utilize single-high heavily this week against Green Bay. In their two meetings last year, they utilized it with 59.9% of their defense snaps. This season overall, they have utilized single high with 55.6% of their defensive snaps. They had a brief dalliance with two high in Weeks 3-5, but they have utilized single high on at least 60.8% of their snaps in their four other games this season. Against single-high, Doubs ranks second on the team with a 22% TPRR and first in YPRR (2.78) and first-read share (30.1%). He should have another productive day against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

Last week without Jameson Williams, we saw Sam LaPorta get a usage boost with a 69.6% route share, a 31.6% target share, 3.00 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. He was the TE8 for the week. Overall, he has a 10.7% target share, 1.85 YPRR, and an 11% first-read share. We’ll see if the usage from last week carries over into Week 9, but the matchup is right for it, too. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 12th-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery keeps trucking as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking 20th in carries and tenth in red zone touches. He has averaged 15.3 touches and 79 total yards per game. Montgomery ranks 20th in explosive run rates and 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He will have to deal with an improved Packers run defense this week. Green Bay has allowed the tenth-lowest rushing yards per game, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Josh Jacobs (RB)

Jacobs has been a volume monster as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 13th in snap share, fourth in weighted opportunities, first in carries and tenth in red zone touches among backs. He has averaged 20.2 touches and 97.8 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs will have a tough time this week against a stout Detroit Lions run defense that has shut down zone runs. Since Week 5, 62.2% of his Jacobs runs have been with zone concepts. The Lions have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the lowest yards per carry, and success rate to zone runs.

Christian Watson (WR)

This isn’t the week to consider flexing Watson. He has been much better against two high this season. I expect the Lions to utilize single-high heavily this week against Green Bay. In their two meetings last year, they utilized it with 59.9% of their defense snaps. This season overall, they have utilized single high with 55.6% of their defensive snaps. They had a brief dalliance with two high in Weeks 3-5, but they have utilized single high on at least 60.8% of their snaps in their four other games this season. Against single-high, Watons ranks fourth on the team with an 18% TPRR, and he has had only 1.43 YPRR and a 13.7% first-read share.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Kraft is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has commanded a 12.5% target share and 10.3% first-read share with 1.90 YPRR. Kraft remains a TE1 this week, but don’t expect smash numbers against a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to the position.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC