The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -6, O/U 49
• Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Tua Tagovailoa‘s first game back, Miami had the tenth-slowest neutral pace but ranked 12th-best in neutral passing rate.
• Don’t look now, but over the last two games Buffalo has ranked tenth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• De’Von Achane
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Last week, Mostert saved his fantasy day with two rushing touchdowns, but otherwise, it was a meh-level boxscore. Mostert played 46% of the snaps with ten touches and 30 total yards. He only played 45% of the passing down snaps, but he had a 67% snap rate in the red zone. It looks like age has finally caught up with Mostert this year. Among 69 qualifying backs, he ranks 64th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 67th in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a touchdown-dependent flex only. Buffalo has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Mostert 51.1% gap).

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Since Amari Cooper walked in the door, Shakir has finished as the WR18 and the WR10 in weekly fantasy scoring. In that two-game snippet, he has had a 23.9% target share, 3.07 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. The big issue for Shakir hasn’t been volume, as it has been high-leverage usage. He has seen only one deep target and three red zone targets, but I expect that to trend up if he remains this much of a focal point of the passing attack. Miami has flip-flopped between single high and two high all year (53.8% single high). Buffalo has faced the second-highest rate of single high this season (60.9%), so I’m projecting Miami to use single high this week to defend Buffalo. In their last meeting, Miami utilized single high on 60% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, leads the team in TPRR (26%) and first-read share (21.3%) while ranking second in YPRR (2.80). Miami has been more giving to slot receivers, allowing the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted and ranking 16th in fantasy points per game.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

In his first game back under center, Tagovailoa was the QB22 in fantasy and that was with a wonderful matchup. This definitely isn’t that. We’ve already seen this play out. In Week 2, before Tagovailoa left the game with a concussion, he had three interceptions with a 56.7 passer rating and 5.8 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa is a must-sit this week. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 19th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating and CPOE, and 27th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Buffalo secondary that has given up the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, and the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Amari Cooper (WR)

In Week 8, Cooper saw his route share increase to 62.2%, but the production didn’t follow, with only a 5.9% target share and a 9.5% first-read share. It’s obvious Cooper is still working his way into this offense. That makes his weekly outlook and role volatile until we get that “ok, now he’s cooking” game, which is eventually coming. Over the last two weeks, Cooper has had a 10.4% target share, 1.97 YPRR, and a 15.2% first-read share. This makes Cooper a volatile WR3/flex moving forward until he is fully up to speed with Josh Allen and the playbook. Miami has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

In Waddle’s two full games with Tagovailoa under center, Waddle has only seen a 14.7% target share, a 29% air-yard share, and a 19.3% first-read share despite producing 0.130 FD/RR and 2.85 YPRR. Waddle remains a highly efficient player, but the Miami passing attack still flows heavily through Tyreek Hill. In those two games, Waddle hasn’t seen a red zone target. Without volume to feed his talent, Waddle remains a WR3 with a wide range of weekly outcomes. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman is the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in deep targets and 20th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Since Amari Cooper‘s arrival, he has had a 20.9% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 3.68 YPRR, and a 21.7% first-read share. He has seen three end zone targets over the last two games. Miami has flip-flopped between single high and two high all year (53.8% single high). Buffalo has faced the second-highest rate of single high this season (60.9%), so I’m projecting Miami to use single high this week to defend Buffalo. In their last meeting, Miami utilized single high on 60% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Coleman has a 21% TPRR, 2.97 YPRR, and a 20.2% first-read share (second-best). Miami has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid is the TE16 in fantasy points per game, but he has finished as a TE1 in three of his last six games. He would have four TE1 notches on the belt, but last week, the tight end position went nuts as Kincaid posted a healthy 13.1 PPR points (TE14). In any other week, that is a strong TE1 game. Kincaid does have issues in this passing attack, though, with only one red zone target in his last five games. Kincaid has a 19% target share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 20.7% first-read share. Temper expectations for Kincaid this week against a defense that has held tight ends to the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Since Week 6, Smith has had a 63.9% route share, a 20.3% target share, 2.52 YPRR, and a 22.7% first-read share. Last week, while his route share stayed stable, Smith’s target share dropped to 15.8%, and his first-read share decreased to 17.2%. With Tua Tagovailoa back, the wide receivers got more work in the passing attack. Sit Smith this week in a terrible matchup. Buffalo has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-lowest yards per reception.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

• NO -7.5, O/U 43.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New Orleans is ninth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
• Carolina has the slowest neutral pace in the NFL while sitting at 12th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is the RB19 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 87.6 total yards. He ranks tenth in snap share, 15th in opportunity share, and 17th in red zone touches. He could see his snaps cut into more this week by not only Miles Sanders but Jonathon Brooks if he is active. Among 43 qualifying backs, he is 16th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should have a solid day against a Saints’ run defense that has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the eighth-highest success rate to zone runs (Hubbard 66.1% zone).

Chris Olave (WR)

In his first game back without Rashid Shaheed in the lineup, Olave was an absolute target hog with a 31% target share, a 57.9% air-yard share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 40.6% first read share. Olave should flirt with these amazing numbers weekly with Shaheed out. Among 98 qualifying wide receivers, Olave is 23rd in separation and 30th in route win rate. He should destroy the Carolina secondary team this week, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Mason Tipton (WR)

Over the last two games, Tipton has had an 86.6% route share, a 13.6% target share, 0.70 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. He’s a deep-league desperation flex only. Carolina has the second-highest single-high rate this season (69.2%). Against single high, Tipton has only 0.38 YPRR and an 11% TPRR. Carolina is a giving secondary to perimeter wide receivers, so maybe that helps Tipton succeed this week. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Legette (WR)

In the six games this season, Legette has played at least 59% of the snaps, he has had a 16.3% target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 20.1% first-read share. He has six red-zone targets and five end-zone targets in those games. Legette has disappointed on a per-route basis. Among 98 qualifying receivers, he ranks 79th in separation and 78th in route win rate. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fifth-highest two-high rate (54.2%). In that six-game sample, against two high, Legette has had a 21% TPRR and only 0.79 YPRR. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. They also rank 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Legette is a volume-based, low-end flex play.

Jalen Coker (WR)

Since assuming a starting role in Week 5, Coker has had a 10.9% target share, 1.94 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share with two end zone targets. Since Week 3, New Orleans has had the fifth-highest two-high rate (54.2%). Since Week 5, against two high, Coker has had 1.88 YPRR and a 14.3% first-read share. His usage hasn’t really changed versus two high, and he’s remained efficient. The matchup this week is glorious for Coker. The Saints have been unable to stop slot receivers giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill is a great tight-end dice roll this week. Last week, he returned to the lineup, playing 40% of the snaps with four rushing attempts and 20 rushing yards. He even attempted a pass and completed it for three yards. Hill also had a 38.8% route share, a 9.5% target share, and 21 receiving yards. His full skillset could be on display again this week. Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL while also giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Derek Carr (QB)

Carr might be back this week. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Bryce Young (QB)

Young will start again this week for Carolina. He hasn’t finished higher than QB19 in fantasy in any of the games he has started. Even in a good matchup, I have no interest in starting Young. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating and CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest CPOE. I have zero confidence in Young’s ability to put up fantasy points, even in garbage time.

Jonathon Brooks (RB)

Brooks is nearing the end of his 21-day window. I expect him to be activated possibly this week. Even if he is active, he’s not in play as a flex. The team will ease him in with a handful of snaps.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Thielen opened this week with a limited practice (hamstring). I’ll update his status on Friday.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

• TEN -3.5, O/U 38
• New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New England has the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Tennessee has the fifth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral rushing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Pollard is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in snap share, 11th in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. He has averaged 19.3 touches and 86.2 total yards per game. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a New England run defense that he should slash this week. The Patriots have allowed the 11th-highest rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the eighth-highest yards per carry-to-gap runs, and the 13th-highest success rate to gap runs (Pollard 63.2% gap).

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Drake Maye is in the concussion protocol. I’ll update Brissett’s status on Friday, but it looks like he probably starts for the Pats in Week 9.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis could be back under center in Week 9. I’ll update his status on Friday. It could also be another week with Mason Rudolph as Tennessee’s starter.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson is the RB23 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in snap share, 18th in weighted opportunities, and tenth in red zone touches. He has averaged 17.5 touches and 69 total yards. He was back to a workhorse-level workload last week with an 81% snap share. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. This will be another tough matchup for Stevenson this week. Tennessee has given up the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate, the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the fifth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs, and the ninth-lowest success rate to gap runs (Stevenson 58.7% gap).

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears was back at practice to open this week (hamstring). I’ll update his status on Friday. He has missed the last two games because of the hamstring issue.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley is the WR49 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets. After this blowup game last week, he is the WR49 in fantasy points per game. That was only his second game of the season with more than 55 receiving yards. Ridley has commanded a 22.3% target share, a 47% air-yard share, and a 28.3% first-read share with 1.64 YPRR. Ridley is likely to see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez this week. Gonzalez has followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyreek Hill on 77.8-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf surpassed 60 receiving yards in his primary coverage, and only Wilson and Metcalf got in the end zone. Fade Ridley this week and sit him.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Douglas’ usage has been all over the map this season. Just when you think it’s safe to start him, then BOOM… nothing burger. It has been frustrating because he is a talented player that has crushed when he has been leaned on this season. Overall, he has a 15.2% target share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share. Even if he does get volume this week, his chances of scoring a touchdown are slim. Douglas has only one red zone target this season (none since Week 5). Douglas is an easy sit this week against a Tennessee secondary that has held slot receivers to 18th in fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Henry is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with three TE1 games this season. He has seen four red zone targets in his last five games. Henry has a 16.9% target share with 1.67 YPRR and a 17.7% first-read share. All of these are wonderful metrics for a tight end. The problem for Henry is this is a terrible matchup. Tennessee has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -7, O/U 46.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bengals have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while leading the NFL in neutral passing rate.
• The Raiders have operated similarly to Cincy, with the fourth-slowest pace and the eighth-highest neutral passing rate.

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins
• Brock Bowers

Tee Higgins opened the week with a DNP (quad) after missing last week’s game. Assuming he is good to go for Week 9, he should be in your lineups, but I’ll update his status further on Friday.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Alexander Mattison (RB)

Since Week 5, Mattison has been the workhorse for Las Vegas, playing at least 57% of the snaps weekly, averaging 20.3 touches and 73.3 total yards. During this stretch he has been the RB29 in fantasy points per game. Mattison remains a volume bet only weekly because we’re not getting efficiency here. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a great matchup on the ground for Mattison this week, where his volume could carry him a bit further. Cincy has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest zone success rate (Mattison 62.7% zone), and the highest rushing success rate. We’ve seen Mattison pile up the volume and finish with a nice day (RB19 vs. LAR), and it easily could happen again this week.

Chase Brown (RB)

Brown has been the leader of the Bengals’ backfield since Week 6, averaging a 56% snap rate overall while handling 74% of the rushing play snaps, 46% of the passing downs, and 79% of the red zone snaps. He has averaged 14.3 touches and 50.3 total yards during this span. Among 43 qualifying backs, Brown ranks 13th in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Brown should post a big game this week against a suspect Raiders run defense. Las Vegas has allowed the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, the sixth-highest yards per carry-to-zone runs, and the ninth-highest zone success rate (Brown 55.1% zone).

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Since Week 4, without Davante Adams, Meyers has been seeing alpha-level volume. He has had a 27.5% target share, a 36.2% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 32.8% first-read share. He’s had four red zone targets over his last three games, with weekly finishes of WR48, WR29, and WR20. He should crush again this week against a Cincy secondary that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Mike Gesicki (TE)

I’ll update Gesicki’s outlook on Friday because it is inherently tied to Tee Higgins‘ availability. Last week, Gesicki saw a big bump in usage with Higgins out as he operated as the team’s WR2. He had a 60% route share, a 21.6% target share, 3.04 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. If Higgins suits up, Gesicki will get shoved down the target hierarchy, but if he’s out, he could reprise this high-value role in Week 9.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Gardner Minshew II (QB)

Minshew has been barely on the fantasy quarterback radar as the QB32 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in any week. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 24th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, and 33rd in fantasy points per dropback. The Bengals are an average pass defense that Minshew likely can’t take advantage of. Cincy has allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback while sitting at 18th in CPOE and 17th in passer rating.

Zack Moss (RB)

Moss has taken a backseat to Brown since Week 6, averaging only 8.4 touches and 31.3 total yards. He has been the team’s passing down back. He isn’t startable even in good matchups at this point. Hold him as a handcuff to Brown, but if you don’t have the space, he’s droppable.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC