Happy Halloween, and welcome to Week 9 for fantasy football. The NFL continues to toss us tricks, treats, and trades (hello, Diontae Johnson). I’m sure there will be more insanity before the trade deadline gets here, so get ready.

Before we dive into the NFL action for this week, considering the wonderful holiday that falls upon the day of the release of this article, I thought I would share my top five hated Halloween candy selections. Why? Just for poops and laughs and to trigger a few unsuspecting souls with this fun intro. Alight, here it goes.

• 5. Tootsie Rolls: This isn’t real chocolate. It’s brown wax. GROSS!
• 4. Dots: The one gummy that I swear has zero taste and could crack a tooth.
• 3. Butterscotch candies: I just can’t. I have a strong sweet tooth, but these things overpower it every time.
• 2. Sixlets: M&M’s ugly cousin. No, thank you.
• 1. Good & Plenty: More like Nasty & Never. Am I right?

No, you won’t find Candy Corn on this list. That is the 1.01 of Halloween candy. Deal with it. 🙂

Welcome to the Week 9 Primer. Enjoy.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

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Fantasy Football Primer

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -3, O/U 52
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Dallas ranks fifth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
• This game will be an extravaganza of play volume and passing rate. The Falcons are second and fifth in neutral pace and passing rate, respectively.

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London
• CeeDee Lamb
• Kyle Pitts

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Well, Cousins has made it abundantly clear that he can carve up the Bucs. In those two games, he has finished as the QB1 and the QB3 in weekly fantasy scoring. In his other starters, he has surpassed 12.5 fantasy points only once. Overall, he is the QB17 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, and 13th in CPOE. Cousins is set to torch the Dallas secondary this week. Dallas’s pass defense doesn’t resemble the same unit that we once feared when Dan Quinn was at the controls. The Cowboys have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest CPOE.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Prescott is the QB19 in fantasy points per game, which sounds gross, but the reality is that even that ranking in fantasy circles has been propped up by volume. Prescott has the seventh-most passing attempt and the third-most passing yards per game. His per-dropback metrics have been frightening. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 33rd in CPOE, 24th in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the third-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. His matchup this week with Atlanta offers a juicy bounceback spot for Prescott to possibly turn back the clock and look like last year’s version. The Falcons have arguably been a putrid pass defense, giving up the 11th-highest success rate per dropback, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the third-highest CPOE. Prescott could walk away from Week 9 with his third QB1 outing of the season.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Dowdle was a surprise inactive last week as he fell ill quickly with a 102 fever. He opened this week with a full practice, so I expect him to resume his role as leader of this backfield after a week where Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook both looked washed. In his two games played prior to Detroit throttling Dallas, Dowdle played 45-50% of the snaps, averaging 17 touches and 87.5 total yards. He was the RB22 and the RB3 in weekly scoring. He hasn’t managed an explosive run this season while only having a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.25 yards after contact per attempt. Those numbers don’t inspire confidence, but there’s no back on this depth chart that should be challenging him for the team lead in work. Atlanta has been giving to backs, allowing the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest explosive run rate.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Allgeier’s blowup in Week 6 is an obvious outlier this season. Last week was the only other game this season where he has surpassed ten touches in a game. Allgeier finished with 12 carries and 33 rushing yards while playing 35% of the snaps. Over the last two weeks, Allgeier’s touchdown equity has shriveled up to nothing, with only 9.1% of the red zone snaps. Allgeier will likely see 8-10 touches this week, and you’re praying that he gets into the end-zone, which makes him a low-end flex. Dallas still can’t stop the run, giving up the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the second-highest yards before contact per attempt and rushing success rate.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney has turned out to be one of the best late-round picks you could have made in drafts this offseason. He is the WR21 in fantasy points per game with five top 36 fantasy scoring weeks among wide receivers (WR18, WR10, WR27, WR3, WR32). He has seen four red zone targets over the last four games and overall ranks tenth in deep targets among wide receivers. Mooney has a 20.5% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 27.2% first-read share. Since Week 2, Dallas has had the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (61.4%). Against single high, Mooney has seen his target share fall to 16.9% with 0.95 YPRR and a 22.3% first-read share. While I don’t project a huge day for Mooney this week, it only takes one converted deep target for him to prove me wrong, and the Dallas secondary has bled out production to wide receivers. Dallas has allowed the 14th-highest fantasy points per game and the ninth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jalen Tolbert (WR)

Tolbert is the WR42 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn’t managed more than 8.3 fantasy points in three of his last four games. His usage has dried up some, as he also hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 5. The three red zone targets he saw against Pittsburgh were his only red zone targets in his last four games. Overall, he has a 13% target share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share. These aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers. Since Week 4, Atlanta has utilized two high with 58.3% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Tolbert has seen his usage increase with a 17.2% target share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share. This looks like a good spot to flex Tolbert, as Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson continues to move through the season as the uninspiring TE12 in fantasy points per game. He has only two red zone targets since Week 3 and hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. He is the TE5 in expected fantasy points per game, so I guess we should start expecting a regression to the mean game incoming. That could be this week. Since Week 4, Atlanta has utilized two high with 58.3% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Ferguson leads the team with a 23.2% target share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 26.9% first-read share. Atlanta is 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends, but they have also given up the tenth-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

N/A

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

• WAS -4, O/U 44
• Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Commanders have been picking up the pace. Since Week 4, they rank seventh in neutral pace and eighth in neutral rushing rate.
• Across their last four games, New York has the third-slowest neutral pace and the 11th-highest neutral passing rate.

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Terry McLaurin
• Malik Nabers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Tracy Jr. has cleared the concussion protocol and will be ready to rock this week. Last week, in the first three quarters, before leaving with the concussion, Tracy Jr. played 69% of the snaps, 84% of the rushing play snaps, 57% of the passing down snaps, and he had 67% of the red zone snaps. Overall, Tracy Jr. had 22 touches and 150 total yards in a horrible matchup. In Weeks 5-8, Tracy Jr. averaged 18.3 touches and 104.8 total yards while playing 57-84% of the snaps as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, among 44 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. ranks 11th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. He should slice and dice the Washington run defense this week. They have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-highest missed tackle rate.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

With Robinson Jr. out, Ekeler should operate as the team’s workhorse in Week 9. Ekeler should flirt with 15-17 touches this week as a rock-solid RB2. In his only other start this season, he played 75% of the snaps with 13 touches and 69 total yards against Baltimore (one of the worst matchups for running backs). New York is definitely a more advantageous spot for Ekeler this week. New York has allowed the highest missed tackle rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest explosive run rate.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking fourth among wideouts in red zone targets. He has soaked up a 23.3.% target share and a 26.4% first-read share with 1.29 YPRR. Washington has tightened up as a pass defense since Week 6, but Robinson could still rack up yardage in this game. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers while still giving up the 11th-highest receiving yards per game. Robinson remains a decent flex, especially in PPR formats.

Noah Brown (WR)

In his last five games played, Brown has had a 61% route share, a 14.6% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 16% first-read share. In that span, he has two red zone targets. Since Week 3, the Giants have had the fourth-highest single-high rate (63.9%). Against single-high, Brown is fourth in TPRR (19%) and second in YPRR (1.81) among Commanders receiving options. Brown is a decent flex play this week, squaring off against a New York secondary that has allowed the eighth-highest fantasy points per game and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Jones has cemented himself as a basement-level QB2 as the QB26 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 30th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. Washington has tightened up as a pass defense over the last three weeks. Since Week 6, they have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Sit Jones.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. has been ruled out for Week 9.

Devin Singletary (RB)

With Tyrone Tracy Jr. clearing the concussion protocol, Singletary falls right back into a backup role this week. Last week, in the first three-quarters of the game, Singletary only played 26% of the snaps with three touches and 19 total yards. Don’t drop him because he has become a high-end handcuff, but he shouldn’t come anywhere close to your starting lineup this week.

Darius Slayton (WR)

In the six games Malik Nabers has been active, Slayton has only an 11.8% target share, a 23.2% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 9% first-read share. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz continues to surprise this season as the TE13 in fantasy points per game. He is fourth among tight ends in red zone targets. He has a 19% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share. Among 57 qualifying tight ends, he ranks third in separation and second in route win rate. Sit Ertz this week against a Giants team that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

• LAC -1.5, O/U 42.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 5, the Chargers have continued to move slowly (eighth-slowest neutral pace), but they are leaning on Justin Herbert‘s arm (eighth-highest neutral passing rate).
• In Jameis Winston‘s first start, the Browns were 14th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral passing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• David Njoku

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Dobbins is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.7 touches and 88.8 total yards. He is 14th in snap share, 19th in opportunity share, and 18th in weighted opportunities. Since Week 3, his tackle-breaking numbers have really taken a tumble. Among 60 qualifying backs in that span, he has logged the eighth-highest stuff rate while ranking 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 49th in yards after contact per attempt. As the volume has piled up, Dobbins has looked more like the back I thought we would see in 2024. I hope that he can reverse these numbers as we move through the season, but I’m not overly bullish that he will. We’ll see if Dobbins can take advantage of a slightly above-average matchup against the Browns’ run defense this week. Cleveland ranks 18th in yards before contact per attempt while giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest missed tackle rate.

Nick Chubb (RB)

Last week, Chubb saw a big uptick in his workload with 59% of the snaps, 16 carries, and 52 rushing yards. He played 74% of the snaps on rushing plays, saw a 54% snapshare on passing downs, and handled 57% of the red zone snaps. His efficiency numbers still didn’t look great, but they also trended up with a 6.3% explosive run rate, a 13% missed tackle rate, and 2.25 yards after contact per attempt. I also have to mention that Baltimore has been a top-five run defense, so it’s not like Chubb posted these numbers in a wonderful matchup. The Bolts are a slightly above-average matchup for Chubb this week. They have allowed the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the 12th-highest yards per carry-to-zone runs, and the 13th-highest rushing success rate to zone runs (Chubb 51.9% zone).

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Tillman has been awesome over the last two weeks as the WR10 and WR3 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has drawn a 22.6% target share (tied for the team lead), a 36.8% air-yard share, and a 27.3% first-read share (team-leading) with 2.22 YPRR and 90 receiving yards per game. He also tied for the team lead with three end-zone targets over the last two games. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (59.5%). Since Week 7, against two high, Tillman ranks third on the team with an 18.8% target share, first with 2.63 YPRR, and third with an 18.2% first-read share. Tillman could keep the train rolling this week with the Chargers starting two backups (Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still) with Asante Samuel Jr. (IR since Week 6) and Kristian Fulton out. On paper, the Bolts have remained strong after losing Samuel Jr. (since Week 6, they have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers), but losing Fulton too this week could make it a more advantageous matchup for Tillman.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey has pulled his season-long status up to WR25 in fantasy points per game after last week’s blow-up game. He has four weeks this season as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver. He has drawn four deep targets and six red zone looks (28th among wideouts). McConkey has a 22.2% target share with 2.14 YPRR and a 27% first-read share. Cleveland still has the highest single high rate in the NFL (69.5%). Against single high, McConkey has had a 23.7% target share with 2.85 YPRR and a whopping 29.7% first-read share. McConkey should get peppered again this week, but the matchup isn’t as juicy as last week. Cleveland has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and ranks 18th in receiving yards per game allowed to slot receivers.

Elijah Moore (WR)

Moore has flashed a pulse over the last two weeks with an 18.3% target share, 1.85 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. He has a red zone target in each of his last four games. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (59.5%). Since Week 7, against two high, Moore has ranked second on the team with a 25% target share, had 2.09 YPRR, and had a 22.7% first-read share. He’s a viable flex this week in deeper leagues in a tough matchup. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target and the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 9 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert logged his first QB1 outing last week against the Saints (QB9), as the Bolts have leaned on his arm more in the last two games. Even with that encouraging game, Herbert is still just the QB25 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Herbert is 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, 16th in CPOE, and 13th in highly accurate throw rate. Herbert likely turns in another QB2 week against the Cleveland pass defense. The Browns have turned into a middling unit, allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 21st in CPOE, 15th in fantasy points allowed via passing, and giving up the ninth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Jameis Winston (QB)

Winston balled out in a good matchup as the QB10 in fantasy last week. Last week, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Winston ranked 14th in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, and 18th in CPOE and catchable target rate. The Chargers aren’t nearly the inviting matchup through the air that Winston enjoyed last week, so temper your expectations with him this week. A QB2 outing is far more likely in Week 9. Los Angeles has kept quarterbacks in check with the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest CPOE, and the third-lowest success rate per dropback allowed.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Johnston will be back this week. I can’t play him this week with D.J. Chark returning to the fold. The Chargers have utilized somewhat of a wide receiver committee at times, with receivers behind Ladd McConkey this season. Chark might not see more than 20-30% of the snaps this week, but that’s enough to impact Johnston and/or Joshua Palmer’s outlooks. This isn’t a good enough matchup for Johnston to be willing to stomach that risk in your lineups.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

This doesn’t project as a week to look at flexing Palmer. Cleveland still has the highest single high rate in the NFL (69.5%). Against single high, Palmer is fifth on the team with a 14% TPRR, third in first-read share (14.1%), and fourth in YPRR (1.80). This has been a quiet year for Palmer after he flashed upside last year. He is droppable at this point.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Since Week 7, Jeudy has ranked fourth on the team with a 14% target share while posing 1.07 YPRR and an 18.2% first-read share (fourth). He has been hopped in the target pecking order by Cedric Tillman and it looks like Elijah Moore. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate in the NFL (59.5%). Since Week 7, against two high, Jeudy has had a 9.4% target share, 0.60 YPRR, and a 13.6% first-read share. Hold him on your bench if you have the space, but I have no issues with dropping him to the waiver wire if you have to.

HOU vs. NYJ | DAL vs. ATL | WAS vs. NYG | LAC vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | NO vs. CAR | NE vs. TEN | LV vs. CIN | DEN vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | JAC vs. PHI | DET vs. GB | LAR vs. SEA | IND vs. MIN | TB vs. KC