The Primer: Week 8 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -2.5, O/U 46
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Atlanta continues to run at a breakneck pace and pass a ton, ranking first in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
• The Bucs have the slowest neutral pace in the NFL while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate.

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London
• Kyle Pitts

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield remains the QB2 in fantasy points per game, and by this time, he would be a must-start, but after last week, I have to talk more in-depth about Mayfield. The Bucs’ receiving depth chart was decimated last week, with Mike Evans lost for a few weeks and Chris Godwin for the rest of the season. The Bucs will attempt to retool moving forward with a starting trio of Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Trey Palmer. This will be a wonderful litmus test for Mayfield in this new offensive system. Mayfield ranks sixth in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, fifth in passer rating, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. The Falcons offer up a soft secondary for this new-look passing attack this week. Atlanta has allowed the tenth-highest success rate per dropback, the eighth-most passing touchdowns, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE. The Falcons also have the 13th-lowest pressure rate, so Mayfield should have time to find open receivers this week.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Cousins had a disappointing Week 7 in a smash spot (QB22). He still only has two QB1 outings this season despite ranking 13th in yards per attempt and seventh in passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, and highly accurate throw rate. The Bucs secondary has been bleeding out production to passers, allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-highest CPOE, and the seventh-highest success rate per dropback. The big factor for Cousins’ success this week will be his ability to navigate the blitz. Tampa Bay has the seventh-highest blitz rate and the 14th-highest pressure rate. Cousins is 17th in passing grade and 16th in yards per attempt against the blitz.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Allgeier was shoved back into the handcuff-only bucket last week with only 23% of the snaps, six touches, and 45 total yards. Hold him on rosters where you can, but I wouldn’t be looking to flex him this week. If you’re forced to play him, the matchup is quite good, so I get it if you’re in a pinch. The Bucs have allowed the highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while also giving up the 14th-highest missed tackle rate.

Rachaad White (RB)

The Bucs made good on their proclamation to utilize three backs last week. White played 47% of the snaps overall with a 42% snap share on rushing plays, 50% of the passing down snaps, and 50% of the red zone snaps. He finished with 16 touches and 111 total yards (two scores) with the bulk of his production coming through the air (71 receiving yards). The backfield competition has lit a fire under White who is now excelling in tackle-breaking ranking 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. White should have another productive day as the lead back for the Bucs. Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and top-eight success rates to zone and gap runs.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, ranking tenth in deep targets. He also has seen four red zone targets in the last three games as the team tries to get him more involved inside the 20-yard line. Mooney has a 20.5% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 26.8% first-read share. He should enjoy a nice week, especially if he and Cousins can connect deep against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-most deep passing yards and the tenth-highest deep passer rating. The Bucs are 16th in PPR points per target and have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton stands to get the biggest boost in the passing game with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out. Since Week 3, he has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.9% target share with 1.68 YPRR and a 17.5% first-read share. Otton has seven red zone targets across his last six games. He is a strong TE1 this week with a middle-of-the-road matchup with Atlanta, who is 16th in receiving yards and 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Irving opened this week with a DNP (toe). I’ll update his outlook on Friday. This backfield could be a two-headed monster of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker if Irving misses Week 8.

Sean Tucker (RB)

Irving opened this week with a DNP (toe). I’ll update Tucker’s outlook on Friday. This backfield could be a two-headed monster of Rachaad White and Tucker if Irving misses Week 8.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

Everyone is speculating who lines up where in this new-look Bucs passing attack. Well, here goes nothing. I don’t know if McMillan’s role as an outside receiver this season changes much with the shuffling of receivers. He has played 71% of his snaps on the perimeter his season, and in the fourth quarter of last week’s game, he played 80% of his snaps from the boundary. I could easily be wrong here, or the Bucs could move all three guys around the formation, but right now, I lean that McMillan will remain an outside receiver, so that’s how I’m approaching his Week 8 outlook. McMillan will be thrust into a larger role moving forward, but it’s worth questioning how effective he will be in the elevated role. McMillan has had a 7.1% target share, 0.70 YPRR, and a 7% first-read share. Among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranks 89th in separation score. McMillan has five deep targets and one red zone look this season. If possible, I’m sitting McMillan this week to see how this reshuffling of the guard works out. Atlanta has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 19th in receiving yards per game allowed. The matchup is good, so if you’re willing to embrace the risk and are in a flex pickle for Week 8, I get plugging him into a lineup.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Since being inserted into the wide receiver rotation in Week 4, Shepard has drawn a 7.9% target share with 0.94 YPRR and an 8.3% first-read share. I could easily be wrong, but I look for him to take over as the team’s primary slot option. Shepard has played 61.3% of his NFL snaps from the slot. This season, with Chris Godwin previously owning that role, Shepard had been on the perimeter for 71% of his routes. Atlanta has allowed the 15th-most receiving yards per game and ranked 15th in PPR points per target to slot receivers. Shepard is a volatile flex this week.

Trey Palmer (WR)

Palmer is the one player in this new Bucs passing attack that I’m fully committed to sitting this week. During his brief NFL career, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Last week, in the fourth quarter, he ran 70.8% of his routes from the perimeter. I think he’ll be Jalen McMillan‘s running mate on the outside, moving forward until Mike Evans returns. Palmer has had a 14% TPRR and 0.94 YPRR when on the field. Last year was a similar story as he served as the team’s starting slot for plenty of weeks with a 15% TPRR and 1.01 YPRR. If you’re in deep leagues, I get picking up Palmer, but I’m not playing him in Week 8. I’d rather bet on Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, or Cade Otton leading the passing attack this week.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -7, O/U 40.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Spencer Rattler under center, the Saints have ranked first in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate. Does it make any sense? Nope.
• Los Angeles has the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara
• J.K. Dobbins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in weekly scoring this season. Last week, he should have walked away with a better fantasy day, but he finished with zero passing touchdowns. He was surgical against the Cardinals, though, completing 69.2% of his passes with 8.9 yards per attempt and 349 passing yards. Since Week 5, he has been playing good football, ranking eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and 14th in hero throw rate. He could surprise and flirt with QB1 value this week. The Saints defense has fallen apart. Since Week 5, they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Since returning to the lineup in Week 4, Palmer has had a 64% route share, an 11% target share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 15.6% first-read share. Last week, his route share increased to 70.5%, and his first-read share bumped up to 20%. He has drawn two red zone targets in his last three games. He could offer sneaky flex appeal and upside this week. The Saints have the ninth-highest two high rate (49.1%). Among 80 qualifying receivers, Palmer ranks 20th in separation score and 13th in route win rate against two high. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-highest receiving yards per game and ranked 16th in fantasy points per game given up to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Spencer Rattler (QB)

Rattler will get another start this week. He has been objectively bad so far, with weekly finishes as the QB20 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 35th in yards per attempt, 37th in passer rating, 31st in CPOE, and he has the eighth-highest off-target throw rate. The Saints aren’t exactly a warm and fuzzy environment for a rookie quarterback to see their first NFL action in, but that doesn’t excuse Rattler’s bad games. Rattler looks destined for another rough game against a pass defense that has allowed the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest success rate per drop back, and the sixth-fewest passing yards per game.

Chris Olave (WR)

Olave opened this week with a limited practice (concussion). I’ll update his outlook on Friday. We need to see how his practice reports are trending as he remains in the concussion protocol.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is banged up with a hip ailment. He opened the week with a DNP. I’ll update his Week 8 status on Friday.

Bub Means (WR)

Since assuming a starting role over the last two games, Means has had a 79.2% route share, a 16.5% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 1.08 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. He has one end-zone target in this span. Means has been the WR21 and WR49 in weekly fantasy scoring. Sit him this week. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Johnston opened this week with a DNP (ankle). He missed last week’s game because of the bum ankle. It wouldn’t shock me to see him out again this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill may return to the huddle this week (ribs). He has missed the last three games as he has been dealing with fractured ribs. It’s likely a coin flip for Week 8. Check back for his Week 8 status on Friday.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

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Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks

• BUF -3, O/U 47
• Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle ranks third in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
• Buffalo is 13th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral rushing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Kenneth Walker III
• James Cook
• DK Metcalf
• Dalton Kincaid

Metcalf is dealing with an MCL sprain. The team said they will see how it feels on Friday. If he is active this week, he is in your lineups.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Last week, in his Bills’ debut, Cooper had a 34.3% route share, a 15.2% target share, 5.50 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. The usage was encouraging, especially considering the short window of time Cooper had to get up to speed. His route share will increase this week. The question is how much. Cooper walks into a plus matchup against a Seattle secondary that has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman is the WR57 in fantasy points per game with two weeks of WR3 or higher weekly fantasy scoring output. Take out Week 3, when the team benched him, and Coleman has had a 16.1% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 2.17 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share. Seattle has utilized single high with 55% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Coleman has seen his target share increase to 17.7% in that six-game sample with 2.78 YPRR and a 23.7% first-read share. Coleman has seven deep targets and two red zone targets in his last four games. This is a fantastic game to consider flexing Coleman. Seattle has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, which is fueled by his insane passing volume. He leads the NFL in passing yards and passing attempts. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 15th in passing touchdowns, and ninth in CPOE. Buffalo is a tough but not insurmountable matchup this week. Buffalo has held passers in check with the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest success rate per drop back, and the 12th-lowest passer rating, but they have also given up the 15th-most passing touchdowns and the 14th-most passing yards per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle leaned on Kenneth Walker more this game, though. Buffalo is an easier rushing matchup than attacking them through the air.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Smith-Njigba is the WR39 in fantasy points per game while ranking 16th among wide receivers in red zone targets. He is a strong regression candidate for the rest of the season, as he is the WR23 in expected fantasy points per game. Smith-Njigba has a 19.3% target share, a 21.7% target share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Smith-Njigba could rack up yardage against Buffalo as they have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to opposing slot receivers, but you shouldn’t expect him to be incredibly efficient as the Bills have also held slot receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Shakir is the WR32 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 17.3% target share and a 20.6% first-read share with 2.53 YPRR. Shakir has been awesome this season when he has been targeted. His lack of high-leverage usage is the big issue with his profile. He has only one deep target and has only two red zone targets (none since Week 3). Seattle has utilized single high with 55% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Shakir’s usage has remained in line with his overall numbers. Shakir might be on the outside looking in this week of Buffalo’s point-scoring bonanza. Seattle has limited slot receivers to the seventh-lowest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with two WR2 weeks in weekly fantasy scoring this season (WR22, WR18). Lockett has seen his red zone usage tick up lately, with five targets inside the 20-yard line in his last four games. He has a 14.6% target share, 1.69 YPRR, and an 18.6% first-read share. Lockett is best left on the bench this week. Buffalo has kept perimeter wide receivers in check with the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the eighth-lowest PPR points per target permitted.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant has seen his usage increase since Week 3 with a 10% target share, 1.62 YPRR, and an 11.7% first-read share. He’s had at least four receptions and 60 receiving yards in three of his last five games. The big problem for Fant is that his touchdown equity in this offense is nearly nothing. He hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. This isn’t the week to chase those recent box scores, though. Buffalo has kept tight ends held at bay with the third-lowest yards per reception and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game allowed.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -10, O/U 41.5
• Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Denver has begun to lean on their ground game more and move slower. They are 14th in neutral pace and have the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 4, Carolina has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral rushing rate.

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Nix is the QB18 in fantasy points per game, which has been fueled by his rushing production. Surprisingly, he ranks seventh in carries per game, fourth in rushing yards, and fourth in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Since Week 5, his passing skills have improved. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 17th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, 11th in CPOE, and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. This week, he is a strong QB2 in a great matchup. Carolina has been wrecked by quarterbacks, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the 11th-highest CPOE.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Williams has slowly begun to flash his former form in recent weeks, with RB12 and RB5 weekly finishes in two of his last three games. Overall, he has averaged 13.7 touches and 66.7 total yards. He should pile on another banner day for his resume this week. Williams is 14th in weighted opportunities and third in targets among running backs. Among 66 qualifying backs, he ranks 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game and fantasy points to rushing while also giving up the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt and fourth-highest rushing success rate.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Well, I didn’t have Sutton getting blanked in the box score last week on my bingo card. Sutton found himself on a milk carton despite logging a team-leading 69.7% route share. He didn’t even draw a single first-read look or target. It was head-scratching and concerning. I doubt this happens again in Week 8, but it does and should give anyone pause when considering him for a lineup. Prior to last week, Sutton was a target hog with a 23.2% target share, a 43.2% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 32.6% first-read share. We have a much larger sample of Sutton being an integral part of this passing attack, so I’ll shrug my shoulders at last week and toss it in the trash can. Sutton ranks fifth in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks this season. Nix should lean on him in a bounce-back spot this week. Carolina has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This secondary has also struggled to stop deep passing, allowing the eighth-highest deep passing yards, the seventh-highest passer rating to deep shots, and the fourth-highest CPOE to targets 20 yards or further downfield. Sutton leads the team in deep targets (nine).

Troy Franklin (WR)

Over the last two weeks, Franklin has stepped up as the WR2 in this offense with a 65% route share. He really stepped to the forefront last week with a team-leading 23.1% target share, a 31.7% air-yard share, and 2.38 YPRR. His first-read share was only at 10%, which was third on the team, but I think that can change, considering how well he earned volume last week with little first-read action and zero designed looks. Franklin is a sneaky flex play this week with substantial upside. Carolina has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. This secondary has also struggled to stop deep passing, allowing the eighth-highest deep passing yards, the seventh-highest passer rating to deep shots, and the fourth-highest CPOE to targets 20 yards or further downfield. 40% of Franklin’s target volume has come via deep passing targets. He is second on the team in deep targets, behind only Courtland Sutton.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE)

I’ll update Sanders’ outlook on Friday. Tommy Tremble has been out the last two weeks, which has led Sanders to the starting chair. Tremble could return this week, which could hurt Sanders’ playing time.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

There’s no way I’m starting Bryce Young in any format. Do I want him to succeed this week? Yep. Does that mean that I strongly believe that it will happen? Nope. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Young is near the bottom of every statistical category, ranking 39th in yards per attempt, passer rating, and CPOE. The Broncos pass defense will smother him this weekend. The Broncos have allowed the lowest yards per attempt in the NFL while also giving up the eighth-lowest passer rating and CPOE. Sit Dalton.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.8 touches and 90 total yards. He is 12th in snap share and opportunity share while also ranking fourth in weighted opportunities and ninth in red zone touches. Among 66 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in explosive run rate and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard will be skating uphill this week. Denver has brick-walled backs with the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest rushing success rate.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

Johnson is the WR31 in fantasy points per game and has fallen upon tough times in the last three games with two outings with less than six PPR points. The Panthers’ passing attack has been struggling, and it has crushed everyone on the receiving depth chart. It doesn’t look much better for Week 8 for Johnson and this receiver group. Johnson has a 24.8% target share, a 37.8% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a stout 34.6% first-read share. He ranks third in the NFL in red zone targets. Johnson is set for a long day with Patrick Surtain shadowing him. Surtain has shadowed five times this season following D.K. Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, Jakobi Meyers, and Garrett Wilson on 50-96% of their routes. No receiver in his primary coverage finished with more than 30 scoreless receiving yards. Johnson will get whipped off the board this week if Surtain is in his back pocket nearly all day.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Since assuming a starting role in the offense, Legette has captured a 13.6% target share with 1.04 YPRR and a 17.4% first-read share. He hasn’t surpassed 23 receiving yards since Week 4. This isn’t the week to consider flexing Legette. Denver has held perimeter receivers to the sixth-lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT