Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -11, O/U 45
• Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, Tennessee was 13th in neutral pace with the 14th-best neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 4, Detroit has become even more run-heavy and slow, with the slowest neutral pace in the NFL and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

N/A

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff has been balling this season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game. He is third in passing yards per game, first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. Goff will be tested this week against what has been a very good Tennessee pass defense this year. The Titans have allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest CPOE, the fifth-fewest fantasy points to passing, and the second-fewest passing yards per game. Keep expectations for Goff in check this week.

Mason Rudolph (QB)

Rudolph looks to be getting the start again this week. Last week, he wasn’t lights out as a game manager, finishing with 10.9 fantasy points. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt, 35th in passer rating, and 25th in CPOE. He is in play only in Superflex leagues if you’re desperate. Detroit has become a damn good pass defense allowing the sixth-lowest passer rating, the third-fewest passing touchdowns, and the eighth-lowest fantasy points vis passing.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in carries and seventh in red zone touches. He has averaged 16.2 touches and 85.9 total yards. Among 66 qualifying backs, he is 20th in explosive run rate and 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He’ll have to rely on his volume and touchdown equity to carry him this week. Tennessee has the third-highest stuff rate while yielding the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to rushing.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Pollard has surpassed every off-season expectation for him this season. He is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, 13th in carries, and seventh in targets among running backs. Pollard has averaged 18.7 touches and 81 total yards. Among 66 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit has been an incredible run defense, but there’s some sneaky hope for Pollard this week when looking at the deeper metrics. The Lions have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to rushing, the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt. All of that sounds like nightmare fuel, no doubt, but Detroit has also been terrible at defending gap runs. They are elite versus zone concepts, but the Lions have given up the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the 13th-highest rushing success rate to the run type (Pollard 69.1% gap). If Pollard can break one long run and possibly get into the end zone, he’ll likely pay off this week with the remaining volume he’ll rack up.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears is practicing to open this week (hamstring). He didn’t practice at all last week and missed the game. I doubt he will play this week, but I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams is facing a possible suspension. It’s up in the air if he will be playing in Week 8. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

It’s easy to look at Ridley’s stats this year and understand why he has been frustrated. He is the WR69 in fantasy points per game with the third-most unrealized air yards and a catchable target rate of 40.7% (95th). I’m not saying it gets much better with Mason Rudolph, but it can’t get much worse than dealing with Will Levis. Ridley will remain the clear WR1 in this passing offense, so at least the volume could help him weekly (hopefully). He has had an 18.7% target share, a 47.4% air-yard share, 1.14 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Ridley could rack up yardage this week if Rudolph can get him catchable targets but don’t expect an efficient outing either due to quarterback play or the secondary matchup. Detroit has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while also holding them to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

It has been a frustrating season for anyone who drafted LaPorta this year. He is the TE21 in fantasy points per game, with only three games this season as a TE1 in weekly scoring. Sammy Ballgame has only two red zone targets (one across his last five games). Jameson Williams‘ ascension has hurt him, but I also question how healthy he truly is. He has only a 66.2% route share, which isn’t typical for LaPorta. He has only drawn an 8.4% target share and 8.3% first-read share despite posting 1.71 YPRR. Among 55 qualifying tight ends, he still ranks tenth in separation, so it hasn’t been an effectiveness issue for LaPorta. Unfortunately, it looks like LaPorta is headed for another down game against a pass defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -3.5, O/U 45.5
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Week 1, with Tua Tagovailoa playing a full game, Miami ranked tenth and 16th in neutral pace and passing rate.
• Arizona ranks eighth in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Tyreek Hill (assuming Tua Tagovailoa is starting)
• James Conner
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

We essentially have a little less than two games this season with Tagovailoa under center, so take some of the numbers with a grain of salt here. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Tagovailoa ranks eighth in yards per attempt, first in highly accurate throw rate, 26th in fantasy points per dropback, and 30th in CPOE. The big thing to focus on for Tagovailoa this week is the matchup. Arizona has fielded a bottom-three pass defense this season, allowing the highest yards per attempt and success rate per dropback, as well as the fourth-highest passer rating and CPOE. This is a wonderful matchup for Tagovailoa to return and post strong QB1 numbers with.

De’Von Achane (RB)

Last week, Achane returned to play 58% of the snaps with 17 touches and 85 total yards. Achane had a 48.6% snap rate on rushing plays, a 67.7% snapshare on passing downs, and a frightening 14.3% snap rate in the red zone. The red zone snap rate I’m not freaking out about too much, as Miami didn’t move the ball well all day, and they only had a total of seven snaps inside the 20-yard line. Achane looked arguably the best he has all season on a per-touch basis, with a 6.7% explosive run rate and a 20% missed tackle rate. He can continue to build upon last week’s encouraging game this week against a run defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt. Miami’s offensive line had been a bottom-tier unit to being the season in run blocking, but they have at least pulled that up to respectable levels, ranking 15th in yards before contact per attempt. Achane should find plenty of running room in Week 8.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Last week, Mostert played 33% of the snaps with 11 rushing attempts and 50 rushing yards. He was a zero in the passing game and only had a 29% snap rate on passing plays. He did, however, retain a red zone role with an 85.7% snap rate inside the 20-yard line. Now, it was only a seven-snap sample, so let’s not get carried away here. It was encouraging to see that Achane didn’t hog all the red zone work. Mostert didn’t look a ton better as a rusher last week. Yes, he posted an 18% missed tackle rate, but he had zero explosive runs and only 1.45 yards after contact per attempt. Mostert has seen his fantasy stock water down to be a touchdown-dependent flex/RB3. He could pay off this week, though, with a great rushing matchup that could help fluff his boxscore. Arizona has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

It’s tough to take much away from Waddle’s small sliver of a usage sample with Tagovailoa under center, but here we go. In the first two games of the season, Waddle had an 11.8% target share, a 19.3% air-yard share, 2.78 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. To be honest, a lot of these numbers check out. Waddle has been a highly efficient player over the last two years, but Tyreek Hill has gotten the bulk of the market share, which has hurt Waddle. Assuming Tagovailoa is under center this week, it’s time to fire Waddle back up as a WR2/3 in a wonderful matchup. Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target. Don’t overthink this one.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Harrison is the WR43 in fantasy points per game, which isn’t the way that we all thought his rookie season would play out. In half of his full games played, he has finished as a WR3 or higher (WR1, WR20, WR26). Overall, he has had a 21.4% target share, a 38.8% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 25.7% first-read share. He is ninth in deep targets among wide receivers and has also drawn four red zone looks. Miami has utilized single-high on 55.6% of their defensive snaps. Harrison Jr. has been much better against single high this season. Against single high, his target share has increased to 27% while his air-yard share has risen to 41.1%, with his YPRR jumping to 2.75 and his first-read share checking in at 29.9%. The big issue for Harrison Jr. this week is that while the coverage matchup is in his favor, the Dolphin’s pass defense has been quite good. Miami has allowed the 11th-lowest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Murray hasn’t been a great passer this season, so the tough matchup could hurt his ceiling this week.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Across his last two games, Smith has had a 56.7% route share, a 26.3% target share, 4.16 YPRR, and a 28.2% first-read share. Yeah, if you felt like you were reading a Tyreek Hill usage line, you wouldn’t be alone. This type of usage for Smith has been bonkers, but I don’t see this continuing with Tua Tagovailoa back in the huddle. With Tyler Huntley under center, Miami’s talented wide receivers were marginalized. I don’t see that happening again in Week 8 with Tagovailoa. Smith still belongs on the streaming radar with a strong matchup incoming. Arizona has allowed the eighth-most receiving yard and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray is the QB12 in fantasy. His rushing production is doing the heavy lifting for his fantasy value. Murray ranks 11th in carries per game, third in rushing yards per game, and sixth in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in passing yards per game. We’ll see if Murray’s legs can help him out of another jam against a tough pass defense this week. Miami has allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Sit Wilson this week. Miami has utilized single-high on 55.6% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Wilson has only registered an 18% target share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share. Those numbers alone aren’t a coffin nail, but add in the brutal secondary matchup and he gets bumped down the flex rankings. Miami has allowed the 11th-lowest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

• CHI -2.5, O/U 43.5
• Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 3, the Bears have had the second-highest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Last week, with Marcus Mariota under center, Washington had the second-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels is dealing with a rib issue. His status for Week 8 is up in the air. I’ll update his outlook on Friday. If he is active, then he should be in your lineups. Under the same umbrella, if Daniels is starting, McLaurin is a must-start. I’ll adjust McLaurin’s outlook in the Primer on Friday if Daniels is out.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Williams has finished as a QB1 in each of his last two starts (QB6, QB1). The talented rookie signal caller looks like he has turned a corner since Week 3. Since Week 3, among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. He should continue the feel-good train in Week 8 against Washington. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-highest success rate per dropback, the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the ninth-highest CPOE.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Swift should have an awesome Week 8. He is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and 13th in snap share. Since Week 4, he has averaged 22.3 touches and 134.7 total yards per game. While Swift has been crushing for fantasy, that doesn’t mean that he has been amazing when it comes to breaking tackles. Among 66 qualifying backs, he is 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 60th in yards after contact per attempt. He has been greatly helped by his offensive line, who, since Week 4, ranks 11th-best in yards before contact per attempt. Swift should dominate on the ground this week against a run defense that has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the third-highest yards before contact per attempt, the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the third-highest success rate to gap runs (Since Week 4, Swift 63% gap).

DJ Moore (WR)

Moore remains the Bears’ unquestioned WR1 as the WR22 in fantasy points per game. He is 13th in deep targets and seventh in red zone targets among wide receivers. Moore has a 23.6% target share, a 32.8% air-yard share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share. Washington is fifth in two high rate (53.6%). Against two high, Moore leads the team with a 23% TPRR and ranks second with 1.65 YPRR and a 25% first-read share. Washington has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen is the WR48 in fantasy points per game with five red zone targets in his four games played. He finally had a get-right game against the Jaguars, where he finished with 41 receiving yards and two scores (WR9 for the week). Overall, he has a 20% target share, 1.21 YPRR, and a 26.4% first-read share. Washington is fifth in two high rate (53.6%). Against two high, Allen ranks second in TPRR (22%) while leading the team with a 30.8% first-read share. This looks like another smash matchup for Allen. Washington has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Odunze hasn’t managed double-digit fantasy points in five of his six games this season. His blow-up game against the Colts is the only game where he has had more than 40 receiving yards. He has a 15.1% target share, a 30.6% air-yard share, 1.37 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. Odunze does have six red zone targets in his last five games. Washington is fifth in two high rate (53.6%). Against two high, Odunze is fourth in TPRR (19%), third in YPRR (1.56), and third in first-read share (22.9%) among the Bears main four pass catchers. He’s a decent flex play this week against a team that has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Since Week 2, Kmet has been the TE3 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 16.5% target share and 14.8% first-read share with 2.39 YPRR. He has four red zone targets across his last four games. Washington is fifth in two high rate (53.6%). Since Week 2 against two high, Kmet has led the team in TPRR (22%), YPRR (2.71), and FD/RR (0.143). Kmet is a strong TE1 again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 15.5 touches and 77.3 total yards. In his last two games played, he has seen his volume cut as he is dealing with a knee issue. He has averaged 36% of the snaps with 9.5 touches and 44.5 total yards per game. Among 66 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in explosive run rate, 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. With the volume reduction and the tough matchup incoming, consider fading Robinson Jr. this week. Chicago has held backs to the second-lowest missed tackle rate, the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Over the last two games with Brian Robinson at less than full health but active, Ekeler played 41-49% of the snaps with seven touches and 58.5 total yards per game. He was the RB25 and the RB46 in weekly fantasy scoring. This week, Ekeler could play an elevated role again. I don’t expect Ekeler to have much success on the ground against a run defense that has held backs to the second-lowest missed tackle rate, the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. He likely won’t find many big plays in the passing game either, as the Bears have held backs to the second-lowest yards per reception. Ekeler is a deep-league flex at best.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE14 in fantasy points per game with a 17% target share, 1.58 YPRR, and a 16.4% first-read share. He finally got into the end zone last week and has six red zone targets across his last three games. He’s a decent TE2 this week in a tough matchup. The Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

• NYJ -7, O/U 41
• New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Davante Adams‘s first game with the team, the Jets ranked 16th in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
• In Drake Maye‘s two starts, the Patriots have had the third-slowest neutral pace and the 11th-best neutral passing rate.

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Rodgers remains a QB2 (QB21 in fantasy points per game) with only two QB1 weeks this season. Among 39 qualifying passers, he has been unspectacular, ranking 28th in yards per attempt, 25th in passer rating, 36th in CPOE, and has compiled the 11th-highest off-target throw rate. It hasn’t been pretty. This week offers Rodgers a matchup to cure what ails him. New England has been a pass funnel for most of this season. They have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating, the third-highest success rate per dropback, and the highest CPOE. Rodgers could turn back the clock this week and look like “prime Aaron Rodgers.”

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson opened this week with a DNP (foot). We’ll see if he is good to go this week after returning last week from a foot injury. Last week, he played 50% of the snaps with nine touches and 25 total yards. This season, he has averaged 16.5 touches and 70 total yards. Among 66 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 19th in explosive run rate, 14th in missed tackle rate, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. He has arguably been the team’s best player all season. While the Jets’ pass defense remains scary, their run defense shouldn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart. They have allowed the ninth-highest rushing success rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Davante Adams (WR)

In his first game as a Jet, Adams had a 90% route share, so the hamstring was a non-issue with his playing time. He had a 15.4% target share, a 20.7% air-yard share, 0.83 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. Adams operated as the WR2 in the offense, but he was peppered early in the game before Rodgers began to turn to Garrett Wilson. The last time the Jets faced the Patriots, Christian Gonzalez followed Garrett Wilson on 88.6% of his routes in shadow coverage. I could say that I think Gonzalez gives Adams this treatment in Week 8, but I lean more that Gonzalez doesn’t shadow either player. Gonzalez hasn’t truly shadowed a wide receiver since Tyreek Hill in Week 5. Adams should post a strong stat line in Week 8 against a secondary that has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

Last week, in Davante Adams‘ debut, Wilson still led the team with a 23.1% target share, a 45.8% air-yard share, and a 26.9% first-read share. Wilson should remain in the top two of the passing pecking order this week against New England. The last time the Jets faced the Patriots, Christian Gonzalez followed Garrett Wilson on 88.6% of his routes in shadow coverage. I don’t think history repeats itself this week. Gonzalez hasn’t truly shadowed a wide receiver since Tyreek Hill in Week 5, and I don’t think he will shadow either Wilson or Adams this week. Rodgers’ top two receivers should each thrive this week against a secondary that has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Last week, only Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte had route shares above 60%. Douglas was ill, so that can account for his drop in playing time. Douglas should see his playing time and usage quickly rebound this week. Douglas has had a 16% target share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. In his last meeting with the Jets, Douglas led the way through the air with a 34.6% target share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 45% first-read share. He secured seven of his nine targets with 69 receiving yards. We could see New England lean on him again in this matchup. Douglas hasn’t drawn a red zone target this season. He’s a stronger play in PPR formats. Surprisingly, the Jets have been meh against slot receivers, allowing the ninth-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-best passer rating when targeted.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Henry is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and fourth in red zone looks at the position. He has a 16.4% target share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 16.3% first-read share. The Jets are 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Henry should flirt with TE1 value again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 8 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye has finished as the QB10 and QB7 in fantasy in his two starts. I think the surprising QB1 train stops this week. Maye ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 11th in passer rating, and 34th in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. He has the 14th-highest time to throw, which could be problematic against a defense that is ninth in pressure rate. If that isn’t enough to worry about Maye this week, then consider the Jets’ secondary is still quite nasty. They have permitted the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest CPOE, and the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Allen Lazard (WR)

Lazard missed Wednesday’s practice with a chest issue. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Last week, with Davante Adams on the team, Conklin saw only a 10.3% target share and a 7.7% first-read share. Conklin has fallen down a rung or two on the target pecking order. The passing offense will flow through Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall. Sit Conklin against a defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

MIN vs. LAR | BAL vs. CLE | GB vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | TEN vs. DET | ARI vs. MIA | CHI vs. WAS | NYJ vs. NE | ATL vs. TB | NO vs. LAC | BUF vs. SEA | CAR vs. DEN | PHI vs. CIN | KC vs. LV | DAL vs. SF | NYG vs. PIT