New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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• NYJ -2, O/U 38
• New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New York has the second-highest neutral passing rate while ranking 18th in neutral pace.
• Pittsburgh has the 13th-slowest neutral pace while flaunting the third-highest neutral rushing rate.

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris missed Wednesday’s practice as he’s dealing with a rib issue. We’ll have to see how he progresses through practice this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Last week, Warren returned to the huddle. He played 37% of the snaps with nine touches and 18 total yards. If Harris misses Week 7, Warren could be the team’s workhorse. I’ll update his outlook on Friday once we know about Harris’s Week 7 status.

Davante Adams (WR)

Adams will be active this week. The question is, what are we going to get out of him in his first game back with Rodgers? That’s up for debate. How much of the playbook is familiar from his time in Green Bay? How high is his snap share coming off a hamstring injury? It’s all up in the air. Adams opened this week with a full practice, so it’s fair to consider his hamstring close to 100%. The last time we saw Adams catching passes from Rodgers regularly (2021), he had a 31.6% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 23 deep targets (15th), and the third-most red zone targets among wide receivers. Adams was the WR2 in fantasy points per game that season. Yes, it has been a few years, but Adams should still be force-fed volume this week. Adams faces a secondary that has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. He’s best viewed as a volatile WR2 this week.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

Wilson’s stock takes a hit with the arrival of Davante Adams. The question is, how much? Wilson is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 29.3% target share, a 35.8% air-yard share, a 35.7% first-read share, and producing 1.77 YPRR. Well, we know those market share metrics will be impacted. We’ll have to see how much, though. Wilson leads the NFL in red zone targets. He faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has the second-highest rate of single-high (68.2%). Against single-high, Wilson’s market share and efficiency numbers look nearly identical to his overall stats. Wilson is a WR2 this week, as we see how the work will be split up between him and Adams. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Conklin has been a matchup-based streaming option again this season. He is the TE19 in fantasy points per game with three deep targets and three red zone looks. He has been a TE1 twice this season (TE4, TE12). Conklin has a 12.4% target share, 1.04 YPRR, and a 7.8% first-read share. Conklin is a low-end streaming option again this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Rodgers is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks (QB12, QB10) this season. Rodgers has struggled so far this season with uneven play. Maybe that will change this week with the arrival of Davante Adams, but we need to see it first. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, and 33rd in CPOE. Pittsburgh has been stout against passing, allowing the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest CPOE.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson has been deemed fully healthy and is taking first-team reps this week. It looks like he will make his first start of the season as the team benches Justin Fields, although he has been winning and playing well. Make it make sense, Mike Tomlin. Fields would be in starting consideration this week in fantasy because of his rushing equity, but Wilson should be left on the bench in fantasy leagues. I’m not rushing to start an aging veteran quarterback against a pass defense that has allowed the lowest success rate per dropback, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE. New York has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to passing this season.

Braelon Allen (RB)

In the first game for the Jets with a new coaching regime, Allen’s role was marginalized. He is not strictly a handcuff with very little stand-alone value. He played only 19% of the snaps, with three touches and eight total yards.

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens is the WR47 in fantasy points per game with two WR2 outings this season (WR23, WR24). He ranks fifth in deep targets and tenth in red zone looks among wide receivers. Pickens has a 26.7% target share, a 47% air-yard share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. He is a volume play this week in a tough matchup. New York has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Allen Lazard (WR)

Lazard has been extremely productive this season as Wilson’s running mate, but that looks to come crashing down in Week 7 with the arrival of Adams. This isn’t a great coverage matchup for Lazard, so even if Adams weren’t on the Jets, I would advise sitting him this week. With Adams on the team, it makes it an even easier call. Lazard faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has the second-highest rate of single-high (68.2%). Against single-high, Lazard has seen only a 14.4% target share and 14.3% first-read share producing 1.28 YPRR. If you need room for a flex play in a better matchup, Lazard is droppable.

Mike Williams (WR)

Williams wasn’t at practice on Wednesday (personal). It looks like he is taking a page out of Davante Adams‘ playbook and sitting out awaiting a trade to another team. Williams will likely be out this week. Even if he is active, he is likely the WR4 on the team and in a part-time role.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with the sixth-most red zone targets among tight ends. Freiermuth has a 15.5% target share, 1.36 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. He’s a borderline TE1 this week with a horrible matchup. New York has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-lowest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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• BAL -3.5, O/U 49.5
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Baltimore has the 11th-best neutral pace while ranking second in neutral rushing rate.
• The Bucs have the slowest neutral pace in the NFL while sitting at 13th in neutral passing rate.

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Baker Mayfield
• Derrick Henry
• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers is in the midst of a second-year breakout as the WR27 in fantasy points per game. His full-season pace right now is 136 targets, 94 receptions, and 1,136 receiving yards. Flowers is the WR17 in expected fantasy points per game. Among 77 qualifying receivers, Flowers is seventh in separation and 13th in route win rate. Flowers has a 26.6% target share, a 27.1% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 32.2% first-read share. The Bucs have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61.1% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Flowers has seen his target share balloon to 30% with 2.70 YPRR and a 38.3% first-read share. These are monster market share metrics. Flowers will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (47.1% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (66.7% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). The Bucs have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Sterling Shepard (WR)

Across the last three games, Shepard has been a regular starter with a 61.7% route share, a 10.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.05 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. He is a deep-league flex option. Baltimore has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton is the TE20 in fantasy points per game. That doesn’t really tell the entire story of his season so far. Since Week 3, his usage has increased. Across the last four weeks, he is the TE12 in fantasy with a 17.9% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and a 15.5% first-read share. Otton is third on the team with five red zone targets. He has a glorious matchup this week and should flirt with TE1 value again in Week 7. Baltimore has allowed the most receiving yards and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Mark Andrews (TE)

Last week, Andrews FINALLY led the tight end group for Baltimore in route share (53%). He turned the playing time into a 15.4% target share, 66 receiving yards (4.13 YPRR), and an 18.2% first-read share. Andrews’ playing time this season has been puzzling, but it seems that Baltimore is finally waking up and realizing that playing Andrews more means good things for this offense. Overall, Andrews has 1.68 YPRR and a 12.7% first read share. He is fifth on the team with only two red zone looks, but they have both come in the last two games. This is a great matchup to consider Andrews for lineups this week. Tampa Bay is 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.

Isaiah Likely (TE)

Likely has a 53% route share this season with a 14.1% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. Likely leads the team in red zone targets (six). Half of those looks inside the 20-yard line have come in the last two games. Likely is a matchup-based streaming option at tight end this week who could finish as a TE1 this week. Tampa Bay is 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rachaad White (RB)

White is dealing with a foot injury. He had a limited practice last week on Wednesday before missing Thursday and Friday’s practices. I don’t anticipate him suiting up for Week 7, but I’ll update his status on Friday.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Irving was the team’s leadback last week, and he looks to reprise the role in Week 7. Last week, he played 65% of the snaps overall, 73% of the passing down snaps, and had an 84% snap rate in the red zone. Irving finished last week with 16 touches and 105 total yards as the RB12 for the week. He has been impressive this season on a per-touch basis. Among 61 qualifying backs, Irving ranks second in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. He has a brutal matchup this week against a Baltimore run defense that has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. Irving is a volume-based RB2 this week.

Sean Tucker (RB)

Last week, Tucker worked as the RB2 for the Bucs, but you’d never know that from the boxscore. Tucker had a 38% snap rate, but he had 17 touches, 192 total yards, and two scores as the RB1 for the week. Don’t chase the massive stat line, though. Tucker only had a 30% snap share on passing downs and only 15% of the red zone snaps. The matchup for the Bucs’ ground game this week is horrible. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Tucker.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 or higher games on his 2024 ledger (WR19, WR35). Overall, he has had a 14.7% target share, a 26% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. He is tied for third on the team in red zone targets. The Bucs have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61.1% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Bateman’s target share has fallen to 10%, with his YPRR sitting at 1.21 and his first-read share at a minuscule 10.6%. Sit Bateman this week.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals

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• LAC -2.5, O/U 43.5
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Arizona has the 12th-fastest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate.
• The Bolts have the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• J.K. Dobbins
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray might be the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t really tell the full story about his season. He has two monster games this season that are carrying all the water for his fantasy points per game. Against the Rams and 49ers, he finished as the QB1 and the QB5 for the week with at least 25.1 fantasy points in each game. In his four other starts, he hasn’t finished better than QB15 in weekly scoring and hasn’t surpassed 15.8 fantasy points. His rushing equity is helping cover up his rough passing stats. Murray is tenth in carries per game and third in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and 36th in highly accurate throw rate. He faces an average Bolts’ pass defense, so maybe he can log his third good game of the season in Week 7. The Bolts have held passers in check with the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, but they also rank 15th in passer rating and have given up the 12th-highest CPOE.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert has limped to QB29 in fantasy points per game this season. He hasn’t finished higher than QB21 in any week this season. Herbert ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 31st in passing yards per game, 13th in passer rating, and 26th in CPOE. It’s been rough. All of the Greg Roman worries have been proven correct so far. As bad as it has been, Herbert could be headed for his best game of the season. Yes, I know that’s a low bar to surpass, but it’s still true. Arizona has been a bottom of the barrell pass defense, allowing the second-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is the only Chargers wide receiver in consideration for fantasy. He is the only Chargers’ wide receiver who had more than a 53% route share and 12% target share last week. The Bolts utilized wide receiver by committee, with McConkey being the only exception. McConkey is the clear WR1 for the Bolts, seeing a 24.4% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, and a 30.5% first-read share with 1.99 YPRR. He leads the team with three end-zone targets. He is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two WR19 weekly finishes this season. He could add a third WR2 finish to the 2024 resume this week. Arizona has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. McConkey will run about 70% of his routes against Garrett Williams (61.1% catch rate and 69.4 passer rating).

Michael Wilson (WR)

Wilson is the WR58 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 weeks on his 2024 ledger (WR28, WR32). He should operate as the team’s WR2 (behind McBride) this week with Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined with a concussion. Wilson has had a 17.6% target share, a 26.1% air-yard share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 20.5% first-read share. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate (59.2%) in the NFL. Wilson has seen his first-read share increase to 21.3% against two high while his other metrics have stayed relatively stable. Los Angeles has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

James Conner (RB)

Conner left last week’s game with an ankle issue. We’ll have to see what his practice reports look like this week. I’ll update his status on Friday or Saturday after we have some practice news.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Vidal isn’t startable right now, but he has entered the high-end handcuff territory. Last week, he made his 2024 debut, playing 24% of the snaps with six touches and 51 total yards (one touchdown). Stash him now where you have room. If anything were to happen to J.K. Dobbins, he would immediately fall into the RB1/2 bucket.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

The talented rookie sustained a concussion last week and is likely out for Week 7.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*