The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

• PHI -3, O/U 43
• Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Philly has the ninth-best neutral pace while ranking sixth in neutral rushing rate.
• The Giants have the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral passing rate.

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• A.J. Brown
• Malik Nabers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Devin Singletary (RB)

Singletary is still dealing with a groin issue. He had a limited practice on Wednesday. He practiced in a limited fashion all last week and still missed the game, so that doesn’t help us with projecting his availability for Week 7. I’ll update his status on Friday.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Tracy Jr. could draw another start in Week 7 if Singletary misses the game. Over the last two weeks, Tracy Jr. has crushed as the RB7 in fantasy points per game, averaging 21.5 touches and 118.5 total yards. Since Week 5, among 35 qualifying backs, Tracy Jr. ranks 15th in explosive run rate and 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Tracy Jr. would be a volume-fueled RB2 again this week. Philly has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate while ranking 15th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

Smith has been amazing this season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game. Slim Reaper has commanded a 25.2% target share, a 38.2% air-yard share, and a 32.9% first-read share, producing 2.44 YPRR and 75.8 receiving yards per game. Smith is tied for the team lead in red zone targets (four). New York has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.6%). Against single-high, Smith has seen his numbers explode with a 30.9% target share, 3.29 YPRR, and a 35.6% first-read share. Deonte Banks will likely shadow A.J. Brown this week, which leaves Andru Phillips (71.4% catch rate and 75.9 passer rating) and Cor’Dale Flott (77.3% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating) guarding Smith all day. New York has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson is the WR29 in fantasy points per game this season, ranking tenth in the NFL in red zone targets. He has a 24.5% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Robinson is a strong WR3/flex this week against a Philly secondary that has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Robinson will run about 90% of his routes against Cooper DeJean (50% catch rate and 57.3 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Jones is headed for another meh-level QB2 box score. While Jones has led us astray with some QB1 games this year, as the season has moved along, he has regressed and has been the player we have known for most of his career. He has finished as the QB22 or lower in 50% of his games. Overall, he is the QB23 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a Philly secondary that has allowed the 15th-lowest success rate per dropback, the 11th-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-lowest passing touchdowns.

Grant Calcaterra (TE)

With Dallas Goedert injured during last week’s game, Calcaterra took over this full-time tight-end role with an 84.6% route share, a 16% target share, 3.05 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share. Cacaterra isn’t on the matchup-based streaming radar this week. The Giants have allowed the 12th-lowest yards per reception and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. The passing attack will be heavily concentrated through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this week.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -6.5, O/U 43.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Rams continue to turn back the clock and run fast and pass a ton. They are ranked sixth and fourth in neutral pace and neutral passing rate.
• Last week in Aidan O’Connell‘s first start the Raiders has the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral passing rate.

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers
• Kyren Williams
• Cooper Kupp

We’ll see how Kupp’s practice reports look this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but if he is all systems go, then he should be in your lineups.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Stafford is the QB31 in fantasy points per game. He is a solid QB2 this week despite his lackluster numbers to this point. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 30th in passing touchdowns, 23rd in passer rating, and 27th in CPOE. The Raiders are a nice matchup for Stafford to have a bounceback game if Kupp is back. Las Vegas has allowed the 13th-most passing touchdowns, the tenth-highest passer rating, and the seventh-highest CPOE.

Zamir White (RB)

White was spotted practicing on Wednesday. We’ll see if he can ramp it up this week without any setbacks and return for Week 7. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Alexander Mattison (RB)

Mattison could be the Raiders’ starter again this week or he could be shoved back into a backup role. We’ll have to see what Zamir White is able to do in practice this week and if he’s able to make it back for Week 7. It’s not like he has blown the doors off as the team’s starter for the last two weeks. He has played 57-68% of the snaps weekly with 18 touches per game and only 63 total yards. I’ll update his status on Friday.

The Rams wide receiver usage behind Kupp this week could be a frustrating committee. If Kupp is out, things will be clarified more. If he’s active, Kupp is the only Rams wide receiver I would start in Week 7.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aidan O’Connell (QB)

Last week, O’Connell finished with 227 scoreless passing yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, and only one passing score as the QB24 in fantasy. That is pretty much the low bar that O’Connell hits every week, it seems when he’s been under center. He has surpassed 18 fantasy points in only two of his career starts. The Rams improved as a pass defense with the reshuffling of their secondary in Week 5, but they still weren’t great. Los Angeles allowed the 13th-highest passer rating, the sixth-highest yards per attempt, and the seventh-highest CPOE of Week 5. O’Connell should be able to post serviceable QB2 numbers in Week 7 but don’t expect more than that.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Meyers didn’t practice on Wednesday (ankle). He missed last week’s game. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Tucker could operate as the team’s WR2, with Brock Bowers taking the lead if Jakobi Meyers is unable to suit up. Tucker hasn’t shown much without Davante Adams, so I don’t have high hopes for him this week, regardless of who is starting opposite him. Since Week 4, Tucker has had a 12.9% target share, 0.62 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. He has averaged only 19.7 receiving yards per game and 6.7 fantasy points per game. Tucker is best left on the waiver wire.

Colby Parkinson (TE)

Parkinson is the TE18 in fantasy points per game. He leads the Rams in red zone targets while drawing a 17.6% target share and 16.1% first-read share and producing 1.08 YPRR and 33 receiving yards per game. Parkinson is an easy sit this week. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

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Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -8, O/U 51
• Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Andy Dalton under center, the Panthers have had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while passing at the 13th-highest rate in neutral script.
• Washington has begun to lean into its passing game and move quicker. Since Week 4, Washington has had the 12th-best neutral pace while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels
• Chuba Hubbard
• Diontae Johnson
• Terry McLaurin

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Andy Dalton (QB)

Since taking over as Carolina’s starter, Dalton has been the QB23 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings (QB8, QB12). Dalton has ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and ninth in hero throw rate. He’s a fantastic streaming option this week. Washington’s secondary has improved marginally as the season has moved along. However, they still have allowed the second-highest success rate per dropback, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the third-highest yards per attempt. Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points via passing.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Last week, as Washington’s workhorse running back, Ekeler played 75% of the snaps with 13 touches and 68 total yards. He handled 67% of the snaps inside the ten-yard line. Among 61 qualifying backs, Ekeler hasn’t impressed with his elusiveness, ranking 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 51st in yards after contact per attempt. While that has been disappointing, his receiving abilities haven’t been. Ekeler remains one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 12th in target share, first in YPRR, and second in receiving yards per game. Ekeler likely gets another week in the starter’s chair against a run defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate. Carolina is also 17th in receiving yards per game allowed to backs.

Xavier Legette (WR)

In his last two full games played, Legette has finished as the WR13 and WR33 in weekly scoring. In that small sample, he has drawn a 17.7% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, two end zone targets, and a 25% first-read share. Legette has produced 1.35 YPRR and 44.5 receiving yards per game. This week, he faces a Commanders’ secondary that has the sixth-highest two-high rate (53.7%). Against two high, Legette’s numbers haven’t impressed with a 19% TPRR (fifth best for CAR), 0.81 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. Legette will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Sainristil (78.3% catch rate and 122.4 passer rating) and Benjamin St. Juste (62.8% catch rate and 111.4 passer rating). Despite the rough numbers against two-high, Legette remains a solid flex play because the matchup is great. Washington has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Noah Brown (WR)

Since Week 3, Brown has had a 57.4% route share, a 17% target share, a 23.2% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 20.6% first-read share (second on the team). Brown is fifth on the team with two red zone targets. Carolina has the third-highest single-high rate (67.9%). Across his last three games against single-high, Brown has ranked second on the team with a 24% TPRR, third in YPRR (1.58), and first in first-read share (26.7%). Brown is a better flex play this week than it might at first appear on the surface. Carolina has allowed the most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Brown will run about 83% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (48.1% catch rate and 87.0 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (64.9% catch rate and 94.5 passer rating).

Jalen Coker (WR)

Over the last two weeks, Coker has had a 67.9% route share, a 9.6% target share, 1.78 YPRR, and an 11.6% first-read share. Washington has the sixth-highest two-high rate (53.7%). Against two high in this small sample, Coker has had a 12% TPRR, 1.82 YPRR, and a 12% first-read share (third on the team). Coker is flex viable in deep leagues this week against a Washington secondary that has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Coker will run about 77% of his routest against Noah Igbinoghene (64% catch rate and 102.8 passer rating).

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game. He has had a 16.6% target share, 1.49 YPRR, and a 16.8% first-read share. Ertz leads the team in red zone targets, but he still hasn’t gotten into the end zone. That could change this week. Carolina has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE)

Over the last two weeks, Sanders has had a 70% route share, a 16.4% target share, 1.09 YPRR, and a 16.3% first-read share. He has seen a red zone target in each of his last three games. Washington has the sixth-highest two-high rate (53.7%). Against two high, Sanders is second on the team with a 24% TPRR and third in first-read share (12.3%). Washington has faced the fourth-fewest tight end targets per game this season, but they have allowed the 11th-highest yards per reception and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to the position. Sanders is a matchup-based streaming option this week.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

I’ll be surprised if Robinson Jr. plays this week. He didn’t practice at all last week (knee). I’ll update his status on Friday.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -1.5, O/U 47
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The 49ers have the third-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Kansas City remains a pace-up offense (tenth in neutral pace), but it is run-balanced (16th in neutral passing rate).

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jordan Mason
• Deebo Samuel Sr.
• Travis Kelce
• George Kittle

Assuming practice reports are good for Mason this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday if it looks iffy.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy has been doing Purdy things as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. He remains one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking second in yards per attempt, tenth in passer rating, eighth in passing touchdowns, and third in hero throw rate. Purdy should flirt with QB1 numbers again this week. Kansas City’s pass defense has been good but not elite this season. They have held passers to the 13th-lowest yards per attempt and sixth-lowest CPOE, but they are also 16th in passer rating and 19th in success rate per dropback. Kansas City has the second-highest two high rate in the NFL. Against two-high, Purdy has the seventh-best fantasy points per dropback.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Before their Week 6 bye, Hunt operated as the clear leadback for the Chiefs. He played 63% of the snaps with 28 touches and 117 total yards as the RB5 for the week. He had a 50% snap rate on passing downs and a 58% snap share in the red zone. He hasn’t broken an explosive run yet, and while his 2.12 yards after contact per attempt isn’t anything to write home about, his 22% missed tackle rate is solid. Hunt could post another solid stat line this week. San Francisco has allowed the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the 14th-highest zone run success rate (Hunt 61% zone).

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Oh…Mahomes. It has been another tough year to roster him in fantasy football. Mahomes is the QB20 in fantasy points per game. The last time he posted 20 fantasy points in a regular season game was Week 12 of last season. If you’re wondering why he isn’t in the must-start section, this is why. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes ranks 13th in yards per attempt, 19th in passer rating and passing touchdowns, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. This looks like another week where Mahomes posts a forgettable QB2 stat line. The 49ers have permitted the 11th-lowest passer rating, the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the fifth-lowest CPOE.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

Aiyuk has had one blow-up game this season. Overall, he has been disappointing as the WR51 in fantasy points per game. Aiyuk has only three deep targets, but he is 11th in red zone targets among wideouts. Aiyuk has a 20.5% target share, a 27.2% air-yard share, 1.85 YPRR, and a 21.5% first-read share. Kansas City has the second-highest two high rate in the NFL (67%). Aiyuk has blended into the background against two high with a 15.8% target share, 1.19 YPRR, and a 16.4% first-read share (fourth on the team). Sit Aiyuk this week. The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR)

Smith-Schuster popped off with a big game in Week 5 with a 20.5% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 5.0 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. He finished with seven grabs and 130 receiving yards. Smith-Schuster could be a trusted weapon for Mahomes weekly, but this doesn’t look like the Rashee Rice role. Only 12.5% of his targets were designed, and his first-read share was tied for third on the team behind Worthy and Travis Kelce. Maybe I’m wrong here, but I don’t want to chase Smith-Schuster’s Week 5 performance. He’s a sit this week. The 49ers have allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. If Smith-Schuster proves me wrong, so be it.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

In his first full game without Rashee Rice, Worthy had a 15.4% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 0.81 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Worthy has five deep targets and three red zone looks this season. Worthy is a sit this week. Mahomes will continue to lean on him and Travis Kelce weekly, but this doesn’t project as a huge Worthy game. The 49ers have allowed the fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI