Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Pace and playcalling notes
- Cincy has the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral passing rate.
- The Browns have operated in a similar manner with the 11th-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral passing rate.
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
*I’m avoiding the entire Cleveland backfield this week. The workload could easily be split three ways between D’Onta Foreman, Nick Chubb, and Pierre Strong. The entire Cleveland backfield has averaged only 17.6 carries over the last three games. That’s simply not enough volume to go around to support anyone this week. We could see all three backs get 5-7 carries this week. *
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Chase Brown (RB)
Last week, Brown took the lead in the Cincy backfield. He finished as the RB18 for the week with 12 touches and 64 total yards (one score). He played 62% of the snaps, 72% of the rushing play snaps, 56% of the passing down snaps, and he had 100% of the red zone backfield snaps. Among 61 qualifying backs, Brown has crushed every efficiency stat I can find, ranking tenth in explosive run rate, second in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Brown could build upon last week’s stats against the Browns. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Tee Higgins (WR)
Since his return to the lineup, Higgins has been the WR15 in fantasy, drawing a massive 25.7% target share, 38.1% air-yard share, and a 36.6% first-read share with 1.98 YPRR. Higgins leads the team in red zone targets (six). This week, he faces a Cleveland secondary that leads the NFL in single-high rate (73.2%). Against single-high, Higgins is second on the team with a 24.6% target share, a 32.6% air-yard share, and 2.13 YPRR. He leads the team against single-high with a 38.2% first-read share. Cleveland ranks 17th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Higgins will run about 79% of his routes against Martin Emerson Jr. (63% catch rate and 127.3 passer rating) and Denzel Ward (45.5% catch rate and 71.5 passer rating).
David Njoku (TE)
In his first full game of the season, Njoku had a 63.3% route share, a 30.4% target share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. He was the TE17 in fantasy scoring last week. While many think Jeudy will take over as the team’s WR1 with Amari Cooper, it could be Njoku who leads the way weekly. Njoku could walk away from Week 7 with a wonderful stat line. Cincy has been giving to tight ends, allowing the tenth-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Deshaun Watson (QB)
Watson remains a bottom-three quarterback in the NFL. He is the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 36th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and he has the 11th-highest off-target rate. The only reason he remains the starter for the Browns is because of his contract and the Cleveland front office. It is a sad situation in Cleveland, and I don’t think it will get better in Week 7. The Bengals could be a bottom-five pass defense, and Watson still wouldn’t be able to post a good day through the air. Cincy has been up and down as a pass defense, allowing the eighth-highest success rate per dropback and the sixth-most passing touchdowns while also giving up the tenth-fewest yards per attempt. To be honest, the defensive metrics matter little when discussing Watson’s weekly outlook.
Jerome Ford (RB)
Ford has been ruled out.
Zack Moss (RB)
Moss entered last week’s game at less than 100% health. He ended up playing a season-low 45% of the snaps with seven touches and 15 total yards. Moss could be losing his footing in this backfield. Chase Brown entered the game also not fully healthy, so we can’t just chalk it up to health for the snap split. Moss hasn’t been great this season on a per-touch basis. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 42nd in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Moss’s matchup this week is a good one on paper, but we’ll see if he still only gets a handful of touches this week. If so, he’s only a middling flex play at best. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-highest rushing success rate.
Jerry Jeudy (WR)
Jeudy’s production has sagged as the WR59 in fantasy points per game. Watson’s pitiful play can be traced to the issues, as Jeudy is the WR38 in expected fantasy points per game. Among 77 qualifying receivers, he ranks 33rd in separation and 36th in route win rate. Jeudy has a 17.5% target share, a 33.2% air-yard share, 1.19 YPRR, and a 19.4% first-read share. Jeudy leads the team in red zone and end-zone targets. Without Amari Cooper, I expect Jeudy’s market share to grow. Cincy has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Jeudy will run about 62% of his routes against D.J. Turner (52.6% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (65.5% catch rate and 123.6 passer rating).
Andrei Iosivas (WR)
Iosivas is droppable at this point. Since the return of Tee Higgins, this passing offense has run through Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins. Since Week 3, Iosivas has only managed a 9.6% target share, 39 receiving yards per game, and a 7.3% first-read share. The Browns have held slot receivers in check with the 11th-lowest PPR points per target allowed.
Mike Gesicki (TE)
Gesicki’s usage has been falling. Last week, he didn’t draw a target and only had a 38.2% route share. Erick All was the only Cincy tight end to draw a target in last week’s game. Gesicki is droppable.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Green Bay jumped out in Week 1 and looked like a pace-up and pass-happy offense. Since Jordan Love‘s return, Green Bay has settled in as a run-balanced attack, ranking 16th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral rushing rate.
- Houston has picked up the pace and passed more over the last few weeks, climbing to 12th in neutral pace and 11th in passing rate in close games.
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
Jacobs has been underwhelming this season. He is the RB19 in expected fantasy points per game but the RB24 in actual fantasy points per game. This is despite ranking 18th in opportunity share, ninth in weighted opportunities, and tenth in red zone touches. Jacobs has had a number of smash matchups this season, and he has turned in good but not amazing numbers. He has averaged 19.8 touches and 94.1 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs should have another solid week against a run defense that has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Since Week 4, Jacobs 58.7% zone).
Stefon Diggs (WR)
Diggs is humming along as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. He has seen three deep targets and three red zone targets. Last week, without Nico Collins, he absorbed a 21.9% target share, a 43.6% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share while playing more on the perimeter (70.4%). Green Bay has utilized single-high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Digg is tied for the team lead with a 26% TPRR while leading the way with a 30.2% first read share and producing 2.33 YPRR (second on the team). Green Bay has allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target. Diggs could be shadowed by Jaire Alexander (60% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating). Alexander has shadowed twice this season, following A.J. Brown and Calvin Ridley on 69.4-74.1% of their routes. Shadow coverage for Diggs here doesn’t frighten me. This doesn’t hurt his Week 7 outlook.
Tank Dell (WR)
Last week, Dell saw an elevated role with Collins out (WR16 for the week). Dell had a 28.1% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 1.78 YPRR, and a team-leading 42.9% first-read share. Dell is third on the team with three red zone targets. Green Bay has utilized single-high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Dell has ranked third on the team in TPRR (21%), YPRR (1.60), and first-read share (20.7%). Green Bay has allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target. If Jaire Alexander follows Diggs all day, Dell will matchup with Keisean Nixon (63.3% catch rates and 103.2 passer rating) for most of the game. If not, Dell will run about 73% of his routes against Nixon and Alexander (60% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating).
Romeo Doubs (WR)
Last week, Doubs returned and posted a strong stat line as the WR11 for the week. Doubs had a 12.5% target share, a 26.4% air-yard share, 49 receiving yards (1.88 YPRR), a 15% first-read share, and two scores. Houston is 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. The Texans have the eighth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (58.3%). Against single-high, Doubs is fourth on the team in TPRR (17%) and YPRR (1.87) while running first in first-read share (24%). Doubs could be leaned on this week as Jayden Reed‘s running mate for the team lead in targets.
Tucker Kraft (TE)
Kraft is the TE6 in fantasy points per game with a 13.3% target share, 1.79 YPRR, and a 10.9% first-read share. He leads the team with five red zone targets. Bump down your Kraft expectations this week against a pass defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest yards per reception and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Schultz has been an afterthought in fantasy this season as the TE27. Last week without Collins, Schultz did see a bump in usage with a 21.9% target share and a 14.3% first-read share. Overall, he has had a 13.1% target share, 0.81 YPRR, an 11.9% first-read share, and one red zone target. This week, he could see closer to his Week 6 workload in a great matchup. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving yard and fantasy points per game to tight ends. Schultz is a matchup-based streaming option.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Christian Watson (WR)
Last week, Watson finished as the WR20 in fantasy, garnering a 62.9% route share (second among wide receivers) with a 12.5% target share, a 36% air-yard share, 3.09 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share (tied for second on the team). Watson is second on the team in end-zone targets. Watson faces a Houston secondary that is 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers. The Texans have the eighth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (58.3%). Against single-high, Watson ranks fifth on the team in TPRR (13%), YPRR (1.22), and first-read share (10%). Sit Watson this week.
Dontayvion Wicks (WR)
Wicks is dealing with a shoulder issue. He has been limited in practice all week and listed as questionable. If he is active, he could play a handful of snaps and fall back into fantasy irrelevancy this week. With Christian Watson back, Wicks becomes just a bench stash again.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pace and playcalling notes
- This game could go absolutely bonkers. Atlanta ranks first and fifth in neutral pace and passing rate, while Seattle is third in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate. This game should be a play-volume and point-scoring bonanza.
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Geno Smith (QB)
Chef Geno has been chucking it, leading the NFL in passing attempts and passing yards per game. His per-dropback metrics are solid but not elite, as he ranks 19th in yards per attempt, seventh in CPOE, and 14th in hero throw rate. Smith is the QB10 in fantasy points per game and should continue his surprising QB1 season moving along this week. Atlanta ranks 13th in success rate per dropback and passing touchdowns allowed while also sitting with the ninth-highest CPOE given up.
Kirk Cousins (QB)
Kirko Chainz could swag out this week. Cousins is the QB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 12th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating and CPOE, and sixth in highly accurate throw rate. Seattle’s pass defense has fallen off a cliff after a hot start against bad quarterbacks. Since Week 4 against Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones, they have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest success rate per drop back, and the second-most fantasy points via passing.
Tyler Allgeier (RB)
Last week, Allgeier got a bump in work against the Panthers as the team was salting away the clock. Allgeier played 41% of the snaps with 19 touches and 108 total yards. Prior to that game, he played 18-36% of the snaps weekly, averaging 7.8 touches and 44.6 total yards. Allgeier has run well this season when he’s had opportunities. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. If Seattle can’t keep pace with Atlanta this week, Allgeier could have an expanded role again this week. The Seahawks’ run defense has melted down. They have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Smith-Njigba is the WR34 in fantasy points per game with four red zone targets and four deep targets this season. He has drawn a 19.1% target share, a 22.8% air-yard share, and a 20.5% first-read share with 1.32 YPRR. Since Week 4, Atlanta has leaned more two-high heavy (fifth-most 58.3%). Against two high, Smith-Njigba has seen a bump with a 20% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a team-leading (tied) four end-zone targets. Smith-Njigba will run about 89% of his routes against Dee Alford (82.4% catch rate and 115.4 passer rating). Atlanta has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Mooney continues to be one of the best values from draft season as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. Among wideouts, he is seventh in deep targets (nine), and he also has drawn two red zone targets. Mooney has drawn a 20.7% target share, a 34% air-yard share, and a 26.8% first-read share with 1.86 YPRR. Since Week 4, Seattle has utilized single-high on 57.6% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Mooney has seen his numbers drop to an 18.3% target share, a 0.94 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share. The saving grace for Mooney this week could be his role as the field stretcher. Seattle has allowed the 13th-highest passer rating and the tenth-highest CPOE to deep passing. Mooney faces a secondary that, since Week 4, has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Noah Fant (TE)
Fant is the TE17 in fantasy with zero deep targets and one red zone look this season. He has been held below 30 receiving yards in four of his six games this season. He has drawn only a 9.4% target share with 1.10 YPRR and an 11.8% first-read share. Fant isn’t on the streaming radar this week against a Falcons defense that has held the position to the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Tyler Lockett (WR)
Lockett is the WR39 in fantasy points per game with two top 24 wide receiver weeks this season (WR22, WR18). Lockett has a 14.3% target share, 1.65 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead in end-zone targets (five). Since Week 4, Atlanta has leaned more two-high heavy (fifth-most 58.3%). Against two high, Lockett has seen his target share drop to 13.6%, his YPRR decline to 1.33, and his first-read share sit at 16.9%. This is a good week to keep Lockett on the bench.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and playcalling notes
- Detroit remains committed to the run, ranking tenth in neutral rushing rate with the eighth-slowest neutral pace.
- The Vikings rank 19th in neutral pace, but they continue to toss it around the yard at a high rate (sixth-best neutral passing rate).
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
*It sounds like T.J. Hockenson will likely be out this week with next week being the target for his return.*
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jared Goff (QB)
Goff has been cooking as the QB11 in fantasy. He is blowing the doors off efficiency metrics, ranking first in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, tenth in fantasy points per dropback, and fifth in hero throw rate. He will face a tough test against Minnesota this week. The Vikings have been locking down passers, allowing the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating in the NFL, and the 12th-lowest CPOE. Minnesota ranking second in blitz rate and first in pressure rate has been a big part of their success. Goff could torch this secondary this week, as he has also been excellent against the blitz. Goff is 13th in passing grade, sixth in big-time throw rate, and first in yards per attempt when blitzed.
Jameson Williams (WR)
Williams is the WR18 in fantasy points per game and is in the midst of a breakout season. It has been wonderful to watch. This is the version of Jameson Williams that I loved as a prospect entering the NFL. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, Williams is first in separation and fifth in route win rate. He has earned a 19% target share, a 39.2% air-yard share, and a 27.1% first-read share while producing 2.59 YPRR. Goff will lean on Williams this week if Brian Flores blitzes like he has so far this season. Minnesota is second in the NFL in blitz rate (41.1%). Against the blitz, Williams has had a 25% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 4.77 YPRR (holy crap!), and a 35.3.% first-read share. Each of those metrics ranks first on Detroit against the blitz. Williams will run about 68% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (66.7% catch rate and 69.7 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (42.9% catch rate and 49.1 passer rating).
Sam LaPorta (TE)
I think we need to question how healthy LaPorta is right now. Even in the first half of last week’s game, before Detroit had blown Dallas’s doors off, LaPorta only had a 56% route share. That’s puzzling. Overall this season, he has a 66% route share, a 9.2% target share, 1.79 YPRR, and a 9.3% first-read share. These aren’t the type of numbers that we thought we would be getting this season. LaPorta has been quite good when targeted, but Jameson Williams‘ ascension and breakout season are what has crushed him. Also, Detroit’s love for leaning on the run game this season. LaPorta could have a bounceback game this week against a defense that has allowed the 12th-most receptions and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Sam Darnold (QB)
After a tough Week 5 performance before the bye, Darnold is the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks sixth in yards per attempt, fourth in passing touchdowns, seventh in passer rating, and 16th in CPOE. The Lions have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, but that’s because teams can’t run the ball at all against them as well as Detroit has been leaving plenty of teams in negative game script trying to catch up. Detroit has become one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, holding quarterbacks to the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Don’t excect a huge game from Darnold this week.
David Montgomery (RB)
Montgomery is the RB8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in carries, 13th in red zone touches, and fourth in total touchdowns. He has averaged 17 touches and 89 total yards per game. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery faces an uphill battle this week against a Minnesota run defense that has allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing yards per game, and the third-lowest rushing success rate.
Aaron Jones (RB)
Jones’ injury has been clarified as a hamstring issue and not a hip problem, as it was previously reported. Jones sounds likely to play this week after limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Jones is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, averaging 20 touches and 116.1 total yards in his full games played. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 12th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt. Jones has an uphill climb this week against one of the NFL’s best-run defenses. Detroit has allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-fewest rushing yards per game. If Jones plays close to his normal role, he’s a volume-based RB2.
Ty Chandler (RB)
Chandler would draw the start this week if Aaron Jones is unable to go. In Week 5, Chandler played 63% of the snaps with 16 touches and 39 total yards in relief of Jones. We have already seen this scenario play out, though. Last year, Chandler started a game against the Lions where he played 65% of the snaps with eight touches and 17 total yards. His touchdown in that game saved his week from utter disaster. We could see a repeat of that stat line in Week 7. Chandler remains one of the worst tackle breakers in the NFL. Among 61 qualifying backs, Chandler ranks 47th in explosive run rate, 55th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 60th in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit remains a top-shelf run defense, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-fewest rushing yards per game.
Jordan Addison (WR)
Addison is the WR33 in fantasy points per game, but that’s being powered by his Week 4 outing against the Packers (WR7). In his two other games this season, he has finished as the WR61 and WR55 in weekly scoring. Yes, in one of those games, he only played 54% of the snaps as he left due to injury. Addison has a 19% target share, a 33% air-yard share, 2.01 YPRR, and a 26.4% first-read share. Since Week 4, Detroit has leaned more heavily on two-high with the eighth-highest rate (54.1%). Against two-high, Addison has seen his target share dip to 16.7%, his YPRR fall to 1.44, and his first-read share dip to 22.2%. Detroit has given up the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Addison this week.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
