Week 7 is the parade of the walking wounded for Fantasy Football. As we get further and further into the 2024 Fantasy Football season, the list of injured players continues to grow. I know exactly how it feels to open My Playbook and scroll through your teams and wonder how you are going to fill out a lineup when your IR cup is running over.
As you ponder that pain, now add in the insanity of the NFL trade landscape. Amari Cooper gets set free from the hell of uncatchable targets in Cleveland, but now he might not play this week. Davante Adams gets reunited with Aaron Rodgers, but every Fantasy GM with Garrett Wilson now doesn’t know whether they should rejoice or scream into a pillow. Oh, what a tangled web of fantasy points and torment the NFL has created in just a few short days.
Now, let’s try to make sense of it all for Week 7 with the Primer. Enjoy.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
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Fantasy Football Primer
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
- Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
- DEN -3, O/U 37
- Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- New Orleans ranks 15th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral rushing rate.
- The Broncos continue to up the play volume ranking eighth in neutral pace while sitting at only 17th in neutral passing rate.
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB2 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB3 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB5 |
| Audric Estime | RB | RB6 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR3/4 |
| Davaughn Vele | WR | WR5 |
| Troy Franklin | WR | WR6 |
| Lucas Krull | TE | TE2 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Spencer Rattler | QB | QB2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | RB1 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | RB5 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | RB4 |
| Chris Olave | WR | OUT |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | OUT |
| Bub Means | WR | WR4/5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE2 |
| Taysom Hill | TE | Doubtful |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Nix has been pulling off his best Daniel Jones impression over the last four weeks. In three of the last four weeks, he has finished as a top 13 fantasy quarterback (QB13, QB8, QB8) despite remaining a bottom-of-the-league passer. Since Week 3, among 37 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating, 29th in passing yards per game, and 28th in CPOE. His rushing production has helped to make his shortcomings through the air. Nix has averaged 6.2 rushing attempts and 30 rushing yards per game while logging three rushing scores. This week, he could keep the fantasy hot streak rolling against what has become a beatable New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
The New Orleans Saints’ run defense has begun to crumble, which could allow Williams to post his best-rushing line of the season. Williams is the RB37 this season in fantasy, and sadly, he hasn’t looked much better this season than he did last year. He has averaged 13.1 touches and 59.3 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Williams ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. New Orleans has been allowing backs to run all over them, giving up the 13th-highest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.
Sutton is the WR45 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 23.2% target share, a 43.2% air-yard share, and a 32.8% first-read share. He has churned out 1.53 YPRR while ranking third in the NFL in red zone targets. This week’s matchup is an upgrade for Sutton. New Orleans has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton will run about 85% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (54.5% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (60% catch rate and 67.7 passer rating).
With all of the injuries to the Saints’ pass-catching depth chart, Johnson could see an elevated role in Week 7. Since Week 4, he has been more involved in the offense with a 9.9% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. Johnson has only one red-zone target this season. Denver has been an average matchup for tight ends. The Broncos are 15th in receiving yards and fantasy points per game allowed to the tight-end position.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Rattler had a passable first start for fantasy purposes as the QB18 for Week 6, but his per-dropback metrics are all worrisome. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Rattler ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Denver will face the Saints without Patrick Surtain (concussion), but this is a tough enough pass defense that you should consider sitting Rattler, even in Superflex formats. Denver has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest passer rating, the third-lowest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest CPOE.
Means could operate as the team’s WR1 this week. Last week, in Rattler’s first NFL start, Means had a 70.8% route share, a 20% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, one end zone target, and a team-leading 26.9% first-read share. Means is only a deep-league flex option. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Levi Wallace (71.4% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating) and Riley Moss (60.5% catch rate and 77.7 passer rating). Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Shaheed has been ruled out (knee) for Week 7. He has a meniscus issue that could result in him missing the rest of the season.
Olave has been ruled out for Week 7 (concussion).
Hill has practiced in a limited fashion this week (ribs), but he has been ruled as doubtful and will miss Week 7.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pace and playcalling notes
- Jacksonville ranks 15th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
- Last week, in Drake Maye‘s first start, New England was tenth in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | TBD |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | TBD |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | WR | WR4/5 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR3/4 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR | WR5/6 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE2 |
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Travis Etienne | RB | TBD |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB3 |
| D’Ernest Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR2/3 |
| Gabe Davis | WR | WR5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR3 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
This has been an extremely disappointing season so far for Lawrence as the QB22 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 22nd in CPOE. As bad as it has been for him, he could enjoy the rare strong game in Week 7. New England’s pass defense outside of Christian Gonzalez has been abysmal. They have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the highest CPOE, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest success rate per dropback.
Maye surpassed my expectations in Week 6. It wasn’t so much a Maye issue that I had but bigger concerns with the offensive line and the play-calling. The offensive line concerns were real as Maye faced the eighth-highest pressure rate and had the 13th-lowest time to pressure last week. Maye still finished the week as the QB9 in fantasy. Among 26 qualifying passers, he was 11th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, 11th in CPOE, and 20th in catchable target rate. Maye scrambled on 29.4% of his pressured dropbacks last week and compensated for the pressure by either running or tossing it to underneath routes (2.2 pressured aDOT, second-lowest of the week). Maye should have more time in the pocket this week against a Jacksonville defense that has the 11th-lowest pressure rate. Maye should carve up this terrible secondary. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
Last week, Bigsby only played 27% of the snaps with seven carries and 24 rushing yards. This was despite Travis Etienne getting injured. The team instead rode D’Ernest Johnson in negative game script. In the second half of his Week 6 game against the Bears, Bigsby only played 28.6% of rushing play snaps and 17.9% of passing down snaps. Bigsby should see more work this week if Jacksonville can get a lead or at least keep the game in a neutral environment. Bigsby should be the early down hammer in Week 7. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks first in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. New England’s defense offers a plus matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed the tenth-highest rushing touchdown rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the ninth-highest success rate to gap runs (Bigsby 65.9% gap).
Overall, Kirk has had a letdown season to this point as the WR49 in fantasy points per game. Jacksonville’s offense and Trevor Lawrence have been dysfunctional. Kirk has had a 19.5% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Kirk is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. Lawrence should lean on Kirk this week. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Kirk ranks second on the team with a 28% TPRR, first in YPRR (2.38), and first in first-read share (30.5%). Kirk will run about 80% of his routes against Marcus Jones (66.7% catch rates and 83.3 passer rating). New England has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
Since Week 3, Polk has tied DeMario Douglas for the team lead in route share (69.9%) while seeing a 14.4% target share and an 18.2% first-read share. Polk, sadly, has only produced 0.56 YPRR and 15 receiving yards per game. It hasn’t been pretty. This could be the week he breaks out. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Polk has seen a team-leading 24.4% target share, 38.6% air-yard share, and 29% first-read share. New England should pepper him with volume. The big question is whether he will do anything with the targets, but Jacksonville has been a wide receiver’s dream matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Polk will run about 85% of his routes this week against Montaric Brown (69.2% catch rate and 104.6 passer rating) and Ronald Darby (78.8% catch rate and 141.8 passer rating).
Douglas has established himself as New England’s WR1. Since Week 3, he has been the WR30 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. During this span, he has averaged 58.3 receiving yards per game while seeing an end-zone target. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Douglas has had a 19.5% target share with 2.02 YPRR and a 22.6% first-read share. Jacksonville has been scorched by slot receivers, giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to the position.
Since Week 3, Henry has only had a 9.6% target share with 0.92 YPRR and a 9.1% first-read share. During that stretch, he has only averaged 23.5 receiving yards per game and seen one end-zone target. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Henry has only had a 7.5% target share with 1.05 YPRR and a 3.2% first-read share. Henry might not see much volume this week, but he is on the low end of the matchup-based streaming spectrum. Jacksonville has been wretched against tight ends (hello, Cole Kmet), allowing the third-highest yards per reception and the most receiving touchdowns to the position.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Stevenson didn’t practice (foot) to open the week. It looks like he’ll miss another game, but I’ll update his status on Friday.
Etienne is dealing with a hamstring injury. He opened the week doing some side work, but he’s unlikely to play this week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
Gibson is likely the starting running back for the Patriots again this week. Last week, he played 48% of the snaps with 16 touches and 43 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and second in yards after contact per attempt. It looks like another rough week for Gibson incoming. Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Gibson is a volume-fueled flex option.
Thomas Jr. is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20% target share with a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.48 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team in end-zone targets and red-zone targets. Thomas Jr. could see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez this week. Last week, Gonzalez followed Stefon Diggs on only 51.9% of his routes despite Diggs playing 65% of his snaps on the boundary in Week 6. He allowed Diggs to secure four of his five targets with 39 receiving yards and a score. Previously, Gonzalez had followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk on 53.8-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf finished with more than 60 receiving yards in his coverage in that span. Gonzalez is a worry, but if he is only following Thomas Jr. on half of his routes this week, it isn’t a major concern. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Thomas Jr. has been marginalized, ranking fifth on the team in TPRR (17%) with only 1.37 YPRR and an 18.6% first-read share. Thomas Jr. could have a quiet Week 7.
I’m not chasing Davis’ performance last week. That was his first double-digit PPR point outing of the season. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Davis ranks sixth in TPRR (19%) and has only seen a 17.2% first-read share while producing 1.17 YPRR. Sit Davis.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Colts rank second and 12th in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.
- With Tyler Huntley as the starter, the Dolphins have operated in a similar manner to the Colts, ranking ninth in neutral pace and second in neutral rushing rate.
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
| Tyler Huntley | QB | QB2 |
| De’Von Achane | RB | RB2 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | RB3 |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | RB5 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | WR2 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR3 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | TE2/3 |
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Anthony Richardson | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | TBD |
| Trey Sermon | RB | TBD |
| Tyler Goodson | RB | TBD |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | WR3/4 |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR4/5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR5 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Taylor missed Wednesday’s practice (ankle). I’ll update his outlook on Friday. Trey Sermon is also dealing with a knee issue and didn’t practice on Wednesday. This could be Tyler Goodson‘s backfield in Week 7.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Richardson almost suited up in Week 6, but Indy played it safe. Richardson should be back this week. He has been uneven this season with weekly finishes of QB4, QB21, QB31 in his three full games played. Richardson has struggled as a passer. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in yards per attempt and fifth in fantasy points per dropback, but he is also 36th in passer rating and CPOE. HIs rushing equity has been solid but not outstanding ranking eighth in carries per game (5.2) and seventh in rushing yards per game (35.2) among quarterbacks. Miami has been solid as a pass defense overall, but they struggle with defending a core principle of Richardson’s game at this point. Miami has yielded the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the seventh-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in success rate per dropback. The Dolphins big weakness has been at defending the deep ball. They have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating, the 11th-most passing yards, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. 18.2% of Richardson’s passes (the highest mark in the NFL) have been throws of 20 or more yards. This is a quiet get right spot for Richardson.
Huntley has put up basement-level numbers as Miami’s interim starting quarterback. In his two starts, he has finished as the QB20 and QB25 in weekly scoring, managing only 5.5 rushing attempts and 23.5 rushing yards per game. That’s not nearly enough rushing production to compensate for his passing stats. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Huntley ranks 27th in CPOE, 29th in catchable target rate, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. This week’s matchup could be where he turns it around (at least for one week). The Colts have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, the tenth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most fantasy points to passing. Huntley is a strong QB2 this week.
Achane is practicing in full as he returns from a concussion. We only have one game this season as a sample, with Achane and Mostert both active and playing a full game. In Week 1, Achane played 52% of the snaps with 17 touches and 100 total yards. In that game, Achance and Mostert split the red zone snaps 50/50. Achane’s fall from grace as one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL last year to one of the most inefficient this season has been tough to watch. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Indy could help cure what ails this ground game, though. Indy has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Monster should work in as Achane’s running mate this week. We only have a one-game sample of these two backs on the field together. In Week 1, Mostert played 44% of the snaps with eighth touches and 19 total yards. He split the red zone snaps 50/50 with Achane. The Dolphin’s training room apparently was invaded this offseason by the aliens of Moron Mountain because all of the special tackle-breaking ability of this backfield has disappeared. Mostert hasn’t forced a missed tackle this season while ranking 36th in explosive run rate and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Hopefully, Indy can restore their big play juice for at least one week. Indy has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
With Huntley under center, Hill has finished as the WR51 and WR31 in weekly fantasy scoring. Hill has commanded a 28.3% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, and a 35.7% first-read share while churning out 2.04 YPRR and 46 receiving yards per game. Since Week 4, Hill has seen three of the team’s four end zone targets. Indy has the fifth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (60.4%). Against single high with Huntley, Hill has seen his numbers climb with a 37.5% target share, a 57.4% air-yard share, 2.72 YPRR, and a 42.9% first-read share. Hill could post the type of numbers this week that remind people that he remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Indy has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Hill will run about 61% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (62.9% catch rate and 71.2 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (44.4% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating).
With Huntley chucking the rock, Waddle has finished as the WR57 and the WR47 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen a 26.4% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, and a 28.6% first-read share with 1.67 YPRR and 41 receiving yards per game. He hasn’t drawn an end zone target in that two-game span. Indy has the fifth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (60.4%). Against single high with Huntley, Waddle has seen his numbers dip with a 25% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, and 1.09 YPRR. The matchup is great this week on paper for Waddle as wide receivers have feasted on Indy, but with the coverage shell, this could just been a huge Hill game. Indy has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Waddle will run about 76% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (62.9% catch rate and 71.2 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (44.4% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating).
Since his return to the lineup, Downs has been the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a whopping 26.3% target share, 59.8 receiving yards per game, 2.34 YPRR, and a wonderful 34% first-read share. He has three end zone targets and ranks second on the team with five red zone targets. Miami is tied for 12th in two-high rate (47.2%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Downs has seen his YPRR jump to 2.57 and his first-read share trickle up to 34.7%. Downs should continue steamrolling slot corners this week. Miami has been league average against the slot, ranking 16th in rating when targeted and 19th in PPR points per target allowed. Downs will run about 86% of his routes against Kader Kohou (66.7% catch rate and 63.2 passer rating).
Pierce could have another standout day this week on limited volume as the Colts’ deep threat. He leads the team with 13 deep targets, which account for 59% of his target volume. Overall, Pierce has an 11.8% target share, a 31.9% air-yard share (26.6 aDOT), 2.36 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. He is a high upside/low floor option at the flex this week, and that could yield fantastic results if he and Richardson hook up for a long score or two. Miami has allowed the fourth-highest passer rating, the 11th-most passing yards, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Pittman Jr. has looked like a shell of himself as he has been playing through a back issue. Pittman Jr. is the WR44 in fantasy, seeing a 22% target share with 1.64 YPRR, four end zone targets, and a 24.2% first-read share. Miami is tied for 12th in two-high rate (47.2%). Against two-high, Pittman’s YPRR has fallen to 1.45 while his target share has slightly bumped to 23.1%, and his first-read share has jumped to 28.2%. Temper your expectations for Pittman Jr. this week with the coverage matchup and against a secondary that has yielded the fifth-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Pittman Jr. will run about 75% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (66.7% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (42.9% catch rate and 74.1 passer rating). Pittman opened this week with a DNP (back). I’ll monitor his status throughout the week, but I expect him to play in Week 7.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
- BUF -9.5, O/U 41
- Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Titans have the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral rushing rate.
- Buffalo is 16th in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Will Levis | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | TBD |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR4 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | WR6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE3 |
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
| Josh Allen | QB | QB1 |
| James Cook | RB | TBD |
| Ray Davis | RB | TBD |
| Amari Cooper | WR | TBD |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR5 |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WR6 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | WR4/5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE1 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | TE3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Pollard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and the RB14 in expected fantasy points per game. Pollard has averaged 18.8 touches and 84.2 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. If Will Levis can limit the mistakes and turnovers, Pollard can walk away from Week 7 with another strong game. The Bills have been bleeding out production to backs. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest gap success rate, and the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 71% gap).
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Levis has proven to this point in the 2024 season that he’s not the long-term answer for the Titans. He is the QB32 in fantasy points per game. Levis is benchable even in Superflex formats. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the 14th-highest off-target rate. Buffalo remains a strong pass-defense. Even if they weren’t, it wouldn’t matter to Levis. The Bills have kept quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest yards per attempt and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback while also ranking 18th in passing yards per game allowed.
Davis could get the starting nod again for Week 7. Last week, he finished as the RB13 for the week with 23 touches and 152 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Davis ranks ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Davis will have an uphill climb to produce a similar stat line in Week 7. Tennessee’s run defense remains a tough opponent. They have allowed the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt and the fifth-lowest rushing success rate and yards per carry to gap runs (Davis 54% gap). Davis is a volume-fueled RB2/3.
Cook missed last week’s game with a toe injury. He opened this week with a limited practice. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but I expect him to miss Week 7.
Spears didn’t practice to open this week (hamstring). He’s been ruled week-to-week. I don’t expect him to play this week.
Cooper’s status for Week 7 is up in the air with such a short window to learn the offense. It’s best to consider him a long shot to play in Week 7.
Last week, Ridley had eight targets and goose-egged the box score. Ridley has been frustrated, and it’s easy to see why. Only 50% of his target volume has been deemed catchable. Ridley has had a 14.1% target share, a 44.4% air-yard share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. If Levis couldn’t feed Ridley decent targets in a smash matchup last week, I don’t have any faith that he can do so this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Ridley.
Last week was the first time Hopkins has played close to a full-time role with a 63% route share, a 22.2% target share, a 36.7% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. Playing Hopkins implies at least some inkling of faith in Levis’s ability to provide catchable targets to Hopkins. I’m sorry I don’t have that faith. Buffalo has held wide receivers to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Hopkins.
Coleman has only managed a 12.6% target share, a 20.8% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 20.2% first-read share this season. He has only one red zone target this season and one weekly finish higher than WR46. Sit Coleman this week against a Tennessee pass defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Shakir opened this week as a full participant in practice (ankle). Last week, he only had a 43% route share with an 8% target share and a 6.7% first-read share. While I think he probably sees an uptick in playing time this week, it’s not for certain, as he is clearly not 100% healthy. Sit Shakir this week against a tough slot matchup. Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI