Week 7 is the parade of the walking wounded for Fantasy Football. As we get further and further into the 2024 Fantasy Football season, the list of injured players continues to grow. I know exactly how it feels to open My Playbook and scroll through your teams and wonder how you are going to fill out a lineup when your IR cup is running over.

As you ponder that pain, now add in the insanity of the NFL trade landscape. Amari Cooper gets set free from the hell of uncatchable targets in Cleveland, but now he might not play this week. Davante Adams gets reunited with Aaron Rodgers, but every Fantasy GM with Garrett Wilson now doesn’t know whether they should rejoice or scream into a pillow. Oh, what a tangled web of fantasy points and torment the NFL has created in just a few short days.

Now, let’s try to make sense of it all for Week 7 with the Primer. Enjoy.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

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Fantasy Football Primer

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -6, O/U 42
• New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Jacksonville ranks 15th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
• Last week, in Drake Maye‘s first start, New England was tenth in neutral pace and first in neutral rushing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

*Stevenson is an RB2 if active. If Stevenson is out, Gibson is an RB3/flex play. If Stevenson plays, Gibson is an RB4.*

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Evan Engram

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

This has been an extremely disappointing season so far for Lawrence as the QB22 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 22nd in CPOE. As bad as it has been for him, he could enjoy the rare strong game in Week 7. New England’s pass defense outside of Christian Gonzalez has been abysmal. They have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, the highest CPOE, the 12th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-highest success rate per dropback.

Drake Maye (QB)

Maye surpassed my expectations in Week 6. It wasn’t so much a Maye issue that I had but bigger concerns with the offensive line and the play-calling. The offensive line concerns were real as Maye faced the eighth-highest pressure rate and had the 13th-lowest time to pressure last week. Maye still finished the week as the QB9 in fantasy. Among 26 qualifying passers, he was 11th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, 11th in CPOE, and 20th in catchable target rate. Maye scrambled on 29.4% of his pressured dropbacks last week and compensated for the pressure by either running or tossing it to underneath routes (2.2 pressured aDOT, second-lowest of the week). Maye should have more time in the pocket this week against a Jacksonville defense that has the 11th-lowest pressure rate. Maye should carve up this terrible secondary. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the second-highest CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Last week, Bigsby only played 27% of the snaps with seven carries and 24 rushing yards. This was despite Travis Etienne getting injured. The team instead rode D’Ernest Johnson in negative game script. In the second half of his Week 6 game against the Bears, Bigsby only played 28.6% of rushing play snaps and 17.9% of passing down snaps. Bigsby should see more work this week if Jacksonville can get a lead or at least keep the game in a neutral environment. Bigsby should be the early down hammer in Week 7. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks first in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. New England’s defense offers a plus matchup this week. The Patriots have allowed the tenth-highest rushing touchdown rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the ninth-highest success rate to gap runs (Bigsby 65.9% gap).

Christian Kirk (WR)

Overall, Kirk has had a letdown season to this point as the WR49 in fantasy points per game. Jacksonville’s offense and Trevor Lawrence have been dysfunctional. Kirk has had a 19.5% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Kirk is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. Lawrence should lean on Kirk this week. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Kirk ranks second on the team with a 28% TPRR, first in YPRR (2.38), and first in first-read share (30.5%). Kirk will run about 80% of his routes against Marcus Jones (66.7% catch rates and 83.3 passer rating). New England has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Ja’Lynn Polk (WR)

Since Week 3, Polk has tied DeMario Douglas for the team lead in route share (69.9%) while seeing a 14.4% target share and an 18.2% first-read share. Polk, sadly, has only produced 0.56 YPRR and 15 receiving yards per game. It hasn’t been pretty. This could be the week he breaks out. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Polk has seen a team-leading 24.4% target share, 38.6% air-yard share, and 29% first-read share. New England should pepper him with volume. The big question is whether he will do anything with the targets, but Jacksonville has been a wide receiver’s dream matchup. The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Polk will run about 85% of his routes this week against Montaric Brown (69.2% catch rate and 104.6 passer rating) and Ronald Darby (78.8% catch rate and 141.8 passer rating).

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Douglas has established himself as New England’s WR1. Since Week 3, he has been the WR30 in fantasy points per game with a 22.4% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, 2.18 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. During this span, he has averaged 58.3 receiving yards per game while seeing an end-zone target. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Douglas has had a 19.5% target share with 2.02 YPRR and a 22.6% first-read share. Jacksonville has been scorched by slot receivers, giving up the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to the position.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Since Week 3, Henry has only had a 9.6% target share with 0.92 YPRR and a 9.1% first-read share. During that stretch, he has only averaged 23.5 receiving yards per game and seen one end-zone target. Jacksonville has the tenth-highest rate of two-high (49.2%). Since Week 3 against two-high, Henry has only had a 7.5% target share with 1.05 YPRR and a 3.2% first-read share. Henry might not see much volume this week, but he is on the low end of the matchup-based streaming spectrum. Jacksonville has been wretched against tight ends (hello, Cole Kmet), allowing the third-highest yards per reception and the most receiving touchdowns to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson didn’t practice this week until Friday, when he logged a full session. He has been listed as questionable. He has stated that he should be able to play. This is something to monitor on Saturday, and everyone should have a backup plan in place. Steveson is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18 touches and 78.6 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson faces a Jacksonville run defense that has allowed the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest rushing yards per game.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne has been limited all week in practice (hamstring). He has been listed as questionable and ruled as a game-time decision. Etienne left last week’s game with the injury. He played only 18% of the snaps with three touches. In the previous game, he played 38% of the snaps with 12 touches and 60 total yards. He played only 35% of the rushing play snaps while handling 47% of the passing down snaps. If Etienne is active this week, I expect him to be the passing down back with some scattered rushing usage. Tank Bigsby would handle the bulk of the early down work. Etienne hasn’t been great on a per-touch basis this season, ranking 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Even his receiving numbers have been snooze-worthy. Among 44 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in YPRR and 30th in receiving yards per game. New England has been a middle-of-the-road defense against pass-catching backs, ranking 17th in yards per reception and 15th in receiving yards per game allowed. Etienne is an uninspiring flex play if active.

Antonio Gibson (RB)

If Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t good to go this week (it seems like he will start), Gibson will draw the start this week. Last week, as the starter, he played 48% of the snaps with 16 touches and 43 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt and second in yards after contact per attempt. It looks like another rough week for Gibson incoming. Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Gibson is a volume-fueled flex option.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. is the WR21 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20% target share with a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.48 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team in end-zone targets and red-zone targets. Thomas Jr. could see shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez this week. Last week, Gonzalez followed Stefon Diggs on only 51.9% of his routes despite Diggs playing 65% of his snaps on the boundary in Week 6. He allowed Diggs to secure four of his five targets with 39 receiving yards and a score. Previously, Gonzalez had followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk on 53.8-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf finished with more than 60 receiving yards in his coverage in that span. Gonzalez is a worry, but if he is only following Thomas Jr. on half of his routes this week, it isn’t a major concern. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Thomas Jr. has been marginalized, ranking fifth on the team in TPRR (17%) with only 1.37 YPRR and an 18.6% first-read share. Thomas Jr. could have a quiet Week 7.

Gabe Davis (WR)

I’m not chasing Davis’ performance last week. That was his first double-digit PPR point outing of the season. New England has the ninth-highest two high rate (49.6%). Against two high, Davis ranks sixth in TPRR (19%) and has only seen a 17.2% first-read share while producing 1.17 YPRR. Sit Davis.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -3, O/U 43.5
• Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Colts rank second and 12th in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.
• With Tyler Huntley as the starter, the Dolphins have operated in a similar manner to the Colts, ranking ninth in neutral pace and second in neutral rushing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Richardson almost suited up in Week 6, but Indy played it safe. Richardson should be back this week. He has been uneven this season with weekly finishes of QB4, QB21, QB31 in his three full games played. Richardson has struggled as a passer. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth in yards per attempt and fifth in fantasy points per dropback, but he is also 36th in passer rating and CPOE. HIs rushing equity has been solid but not outstanding ranking eighth in carries per game (5.2) and seventh in rushing yards per game (35.2) among quarterbacks. Miami has been solid as a pass defense overall, but they struggle with defending a core principle of Richardson’s game at this point. Miami has yielded the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the seventh-lowest passer rating while ranking 16th in success rate per dropback. The Dolphins big weakness has been at defending the deep ball. They have allowed the fourth-highest passer rating, the 11th-most passing yards, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. 18.2% of Richardson’s passes (the highest mark in the NFL) have been throws of 20 or more yards. This is a quiet get right spot for Richardson.

Tyler Huntley (QB)

Huntley has put up basement-level numbers as Miami’s interim starting quarterback. In his two starts, he has finished as the QB20 and QB25 in weekly scoring, managing only 5.5 rushing attempts and 23.5 rushing yards per game. That’s not nearly enough rushing production to compensate for his passing stats. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Huntley ranks 27th in CPOE, 29th in catchable target rate, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. This week’s matchup could be where he turns it around (at least for one week). The Colts have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing yards per game, the tenth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most fantasy points to passing. Huntley is a strong QB2 this week.

De’Von Achane (RB)

Achane is practicing in full as he returns from a concussion. We only have one game this season as a sample, with Achane and Mostert both active and playing a full game. In Week 1, Achane played 52% of the snaps with 17 touches and 100 total yards. In that game, Achance and Mostert split the red zone snaps 50/50. Achane’s fall from grace as one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL last year to one of the most inefficient this season has been tough to watch. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Indy could help cure what ails this ground game, though. Indy has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Mostert should work in as Achane’s running mate this week. We only have a one-game sample of these two backs on the field together. In Week 1, Mostert played 44% of the snaps with eighth touches and 19 total yards. He split the red zone snaps 50/50 with Achane. The Dolphin’s training room apparently was invaded this offseason by the aliens of Moron Mountain because all of the special tackle-breaking ability of this backfield has disappeared. Mostert hasn’t forced a missed tackle this season while ranking 36th in explosive run rate and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Hopefully, Indy can restore their big play juice for at least one week. Indy has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

With Huntley under center, Hill has finished as the WR51 and WR31 in weekly fantasy scoring. Hill has commanded a 28.3% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, and a 35.7% first-read share while churning out 2.04 YPRR and 46 receiving yards per game. Since Week 4, Hill has seen three of the team’s four end zone targets. Indy has the fifth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (60.4%). Against single high with Huntley, Hill has seen his numbers climb with a 37.5% target share, a 57.4% air-yard share, 2.72 YPRR, and a 42.9% first-read share. Hill could post the type of numbers this week that remind people that he remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Indy has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Hill will run about 61% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (62.9% catch rate and 71.2 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (44.4% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating).

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

With Huntley chucking the rock, Waddle has finished as the WR57 and the WR47 in weekly fantasy scoring. He has seen a 26.4% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, and a 28.6% first-read share with 1.67 YPRR and 41 receiving yards per game. He hasn’t drawn an end zone target in that two-game span. Indy has the fifth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (60.4%). Against single high with Huntley, Waddle has seen his numbers dip with a 25% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, and 1.09 YPRR. The matchup is great this week on paper for Waddle as wide receivers have feasted on Indy, but with the coverage shell, this could just been a huge Hill game. Indy has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Waddle will run about 76% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (62.9% catch rate and 71.2 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (44.4% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating).

Josh Downs (WR)

Since his return to the lineup, Downs has been the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a whopping 26.3% target share, 59.8 receiving yards per game, 2.34 YPRR, and a wonderful 34% first-read share. He has three end zone targets and ranks second on the team with five red zone targets. Miami is tied for 12th in two-high rate (47.2%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Downs has seen his YPRR jump to 2.57 and his first-read share trickle up to 34.7%. Downs should continue steamrolling slot corners this week. Miami has been league average against the slot, ranking 16th in rating when targeted and 19th in PPR points per target allowed. Downs will run about 86% of his routes against Kader Kohou (66.7% catch rate and 63.2 passer rating).

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce could have another standout day this week on limited volume as the Colts’ deep threat. He leads the team with 13 deep targets, which account for 59% of his target volume. Overall, Pierce has an 11.8% target share, a 31.9% air-yard share (26.6 aDOT), 2.36 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. He is a high upside/low floor option at the flex this week, and that could yield fantastic results if he and Richardson hook up for a long score or two. Miami has allowed the fourth-highest passer rating, the 11th-most passing yards, and the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trey Sermon (RB)

Sermon will draw another start this week for the injured Jonathan Taylor. Over the last two weeks, Sermon has played 59-60% of the snaps with RB6 and RB47 weekly finishes. He has averaged 17 touches and only 46 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 61st in yards after contact per attempt. Sermon faces a tough matchup this week. Miami has held backs to the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, the third-lowest yards per carry to zone runs, and the eighth-lowest success rate to zone runs (Sermon 56.8% zone).

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman Jr. has looked like a shell of himself as he has been playing through a back issue. Pittman Jr. is the WR44 in fantasy, seeing a 22% target share with 1.64 YPRR, four end zone targets, and a 24.2% first-read share. Miami is tied for 12th in two-high rate (47.2%). Against two-high, Pittman’s YPRR has fallen to 1.45 while his target share has slightly bumped to 23.1%, and his first-read share has jumped to 28.2%. Temper your expectations for Pittman Jr. this week with the coverage matchup and against a secondary that has yielded the fifth-lowest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Pittman Jr. will run about 75% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (66.7% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (42.9% catch rate and 74.1 passer rating). Pittman didn’t practice on Wednesday or Friday, but he practiced in full on Thursday. He has been listed as questionable.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -9.5, O/U 41
• Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Titans have the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral rushing rate.
• Buffalo is 16th in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Dalton Kincaid
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Pollard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and the RB14 in expected fantasy points per game. Pollard has averaged 18.8 touches and 84.2 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, he ranks 29th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. If Will Levis can limit the mistakes and turnovers, Pollard can walk away from Week 7 with another strong game. The Bills have been bleeding out production to backs. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest gap success rate, and the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 71% gap).

Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis has proven to this point in the 2024 season that he’s not the long-term answer for the Titans. He is the QB32 in fantasy points per game. Levis is benchable even in Superflex formats. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and he has the 14th-highest off-target rate. Buffalo remains a strong pass-defense. Even if they weren’t, it wouldn’t matter to Levis. The Bills have kept quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest yards per attempt and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback while also ranking 18th in passing yards per game allowed.

Ray Davis (RB)

Davis popped up with a calf issue on Thursday. He was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday and has been listed as questionable. With James Cook back this week and off the injury report, Davis will fall back into this previous backup role. Prior to last week, he averaged only six touches and 18.6 total yards per game. Sit Davis.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears has been ruled out.

Amari Cooper (WR)

It looks like Cooper will be active this week after the Bills previously stated he likely would be out. Cooper has had roughly four days to acclimate to his new surroundings. That simply isn’t enough time to learn the playbook and build rapport with his new quarterback. I’d expect Cooper to be a part-time player on obvious passing downs and possibly in the red zone. This all equals a player who is tough to plug into any fantasy lineup with any sense of confidence. I understand if your fantasy team is decimated by injuries or bye weeks (or both), but in most situations, I’m sitting Cooper this week. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Last week, Ridley had eight targets and goose-egged the box score. Ridley has been frustrated, and it’s easy to see why. Only 50% of his target volume has been deemed catchable. Ridley has had a 14.1% target share, a 44.4% air-yard share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. If Levis couldn’t feed Ridley decent targets in a smash matchup last week, I don’t have any faith that he can do so this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Ridley.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Last week was the first time Hopkins has played close to a full-time role with a 63% route share, a 22.2% target share, a 36.7% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 24% first-read share. Playing Hopkins implies at least some inkling of faith in Levis’s ability to provide catchable targets to Hopkins. I’m sorry I don’t have that faith. Buffalo has held wide receivers to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Hopkins.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman has only managed a 12.6% target share, a 20.8% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 20.2% first-read share this season. He has only one red zone target this season and one weekly finish higher than WR46. Sit Coleman this week against a Tennessee pass defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Shakir opened this week as a full participant in practice (ankle). Last week, he only had a 43% route share with an 8% target share and a 6.7% first-read share. While I think he probably sees an uptick in playing time this week, it’s not for certain, as he is clearly not 100% healthy. Sit Shakir this week against a tough slot matchup. Tennessee has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI