Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
- TEN -2.5, O/U 42.5
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Indy has the second-fastest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The Titans will look to slow things down as they have the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
| Anthony Richardson | QB | Out |
| Joe Flacco | QB | QB2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | Out |
| Trey Sermon | RB | RB2 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | GTD |
| Josh Downs | WR | WR3/4 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | WR5 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | WR4/5 |
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
| Will Levis | QB | QB2 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | RB2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB3/4 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | WR3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR4 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | WR6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Levis is dealing with a shoulder issue, but the Titans sound optimistic he will play this week. That’s how we’ll approach the situation until we hear an update. The Levis rollercoaster in 2024 has been real. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in yards per attempt, 31st in passer rating, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback, but he is also eighth-best in CPOE and 11th in catchable target rate. If there was ever a “get right” matchup for Levis and this passing game it is the Colts. They have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest passing yards per game and CPOE.
Pollard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game and the clear leader in the Tennessee backfield. He has averaged a 64% snap rate with an 80% snapshare in the red zone. Pollard has averaged 18.6 touches and 83.3 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 26th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard faces an Indy run defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt. He should have a banner day.
Spears is a low-end flex and handcuff. He has averaged only 33-45% of the snaps with 9.8 touches and 40.8 total yards per game. Among 59 qualifying backs, he has been extremely disappointing this season with zero explosive runs and ranking 44th in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt. The matchup is great this week, so maybe Spears will break off a long run to pay off this week. Indy’s run defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Downs has been the WR24 in fantasy points per game since his return, drawing a 27.4% target share with 2.37 YPRR and a 35.7% first-read share. He has been awesome and already has two end-zone targets. Tennessee has the seventh-highest two high rate in the NFL (50.4%). Against two-high, his target share has remained a strong 25.5% with 2.45 YPRR and a 34.4% first-read share. Tennessee hasn’t yet been tested by a strong slot receiver who is receiving a heavy workload. Jayden Reed only saw six targets with a run-heavy game script with Malik Willis, but he converted those into four receptions and 50 receiving yards. Tennessee has faced the fifth-fewest slot targets and allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards. Downs should be the focal point of the passing attack this week.
Ridley is the WR56, drawing a 15.7% target share with a 42.5% air-yard share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share. Ridley hasn’t drawn an end-zone target or a red-zone look. Indy has the 11th-highest single-high rate (58.3%). Against single-high, Ridley leads the team with an 18.9% target share, a 45.6% air-yard share, 1.44 YPRR, and a 26.3% first-read share. Ridley could have a huge game if Levis is willing to test this secondary deep. Ridley leads the team in deep targets (38.9% of his target volume). Indy has allowed the most deep passing yards and the 12th-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Indy has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Flacco was wondrous last week as the QB4 in fantasy. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, 12th-best in CPOE, and 11th in fantasy points per dropback. I bet the Browns are wishing they had held onto him for the 2024 season right about now. This isn’t the matchup to chase last week’s results, though. Tennessee has fielded a strong pass defense this season. They have smothered quarterbacks with the lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the lowest success rate per dropback. With Anthony Richardson ruled out this week, Flacco is a QB2.
Richardson has been ruled out for Week 6.
Taylor has been ruled out for Week 6.
Sermon surprised as a volume-driven RB1 last week (RB8). He was the clear lead back for the Colts with a 59% snap rate, 16 touches, and 63 total yards (one score). Sermon also had a 66.7% snap share in the red zone. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in explosive run rate and 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt. This is another tough rushing matchup for Sermon if he draws the start, but like in Week 5, he can likely overcome it with volume. Tennesse has the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (Sermon 52.6% gap).
So…earlier this week, it was announced Pittman Jr. was dealing with a back issue and could possibly be sent to the IR. Now, after not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday, he has been listed as a full participant in the Friday walk-through and has been listed as questionable. I feel like Indy is hoodwinking us with all of this mess. We’ll see if Pittman Jr. actually suits up for Week 6 (I doubt it.). Pittman Jr. has drawn a 24.3% target share with a 24% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 27.6% first-read share. He ranks 11th among wide receivers in red zone targets. If Pittman suits up, I worry that he will be whipped off the map by L’Jarius Sneed (41.7% catch rate and 59.4 passer rating). Sneed followed Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson, and D.J. Moore on 53.3-66.7% of their routes. None of them surpassed 35 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. If Pittman does play in many leagues, I’ll be sitting him.
This isn’t the matchup to consider chasing a big Pierce week. Pierce remains the field stretcher for Indy. 55.6% of his target volume has been on deep targets. Tennessee has shut down deep passing, allowing the fewest deep passing yards per game and the lowest CPOE to targets 20 or more yards downfield.
Mitchell is a must-sit this week. If Michael Pittman plays, Mitchell is tossed into a part-time role. If Pittman is out, Mitchell will become a full-time player, but he will likely get shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed. Mitchell has been a part-time player this season. Last week, he drew a 15.4% target share and an insane 58% TPRR with only a 24% route share. Overall, this season, he has had a 31% TPRR, 1.08 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. Mitchell has two end-zone targets. Sneed (41.7% catch rate and 59.4 passer rating) followed Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson, and D.J. Moore on 53.3-66.7% of their routes. None of them surpassed 35 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Tennessee has the seventh-highest two high rate in the NFL (50.4%). Against two-high, Mitchell has seen his TPRR drop to 25% as his YPRR has cratered to 0.33. Stash Mitchell, but don’t look to put him in lineups this week. Tennessee has given up the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Hopkins still hasn’t been a full-time player this season. In Week 4, he had only a 52.2% route share with a 19% target share, 49% air-yard share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share. Indy has the 11th-highest single-high rate (58.3%). Against single-high, Hopkins ranks third on the team in TPRR (18%) and first-read share (15.8%). The matchup is amazing this week, but Hopkins hasn’t been the go-to versus this coverage type, and without seeing Hopkins in a full-time role this season, it’s easy to leave him on the bench this week.
Okonkwo has been droppable in all formats. He only has a 47% route share with an 8.7% target share, 0.77 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. Okonkwo is averaging only 12.8 receiving yards per game.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Browns continue to do wild things. Operating as a pass-happy offense with one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL is a choice (not a good one). Cleveland ranks fifth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
- The play volume in this game will be nice. Philly is ninth in neutral pace and 19th in neutral passing rate.
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
| Deshaun Watson | QB | QB2 |
| Jerome Ford | RB | RB2/3 |
| D’Onta Foreman | RB | RB4 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | WR3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | WR3/4 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | WR6 |
| David Njoku | TE | TE1/2 |
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| Will Shipley | RB | RB5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB5 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR1 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR1/2 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Ford is the RB27 in fantasy points per game. He has played at least 58% of the snaps in four of five games while averaging 13.6 touches and 67.4 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. The Eagles have been a prime matchup for backs, allowing the highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. It’s fair to question whether the offense will get Ford into scoring position or the team will feed him enough volume to take advantage, though.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Watson has been absolutely dreadful this season as the QB26 in fantasy points per game. At this point, I don’t trust him in any fantasy lineup or format. He has had countless solid to amazing matchups to this point in 2024, but he hasn’t been able to capitalize in any game. Despite the coaching staff’s affirmations that Watson is the starting quarterback, we can’t rule out that Watson could get benched during a game moving forward. At some point, sanity and common sense have to return to the decision-making for this franchise. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Watson ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 20th in CPOE, 29th in passer rating, and 32nd in fantasy points per dropback. Philly has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the 14th-highest passer rating, and the tenth-most passing yards per game.
Cooper has been receiving a truckload of hollow volume from Watson all year. He has a 26.6% target share, a 51.1% air-yard share, 1.06 YPRR, a measly 41.6 receiving yards per game, and a 33.6% first-read share. Only 59.6% of his target volume has been deemed catchable. He is tied with Jeudy for the team lead in end-zone targets. Philly is 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Cooper remains a volume or plug-and-pray play.
Jeudy has handled an 18.1% target share with a 30% air-yard share, 1.13 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. He is tied with Cooper for the team lead in end-zone targets. Jeudy has three top 36 wide receiver weekly finishes this season (WR33, WR27, WR31). If you’re in a bye-week jam, Jeudy is a low-end flex or WR3 option, but in most formats and situations, you’re not starting him. It’s tough to have any faith in any part of the Cleveland offense right now. Philly is 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Goedert is the TE2 in fantasy points per game, but that is inflated with Philly dealing with no DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown for nearly two weeks. Both should be expected to return this week. In Weeks 1-2, Goedert was the TE13 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 14.1% target share with 1.21 YPRR and a 15.8% first-read share. The Browns have been a difficult assignment for tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Njoku will be back this week. He has played only 37% of the snaps in Week 1 and 42% of the snaps last week. Njoku has a 15% TPRR, 1.41 YPRR, and an 11.1% first-read share. Njoku hasn’t seen a deep target or red zone target this season in his limited action. He’s a borderline TE1 in a tough matchup this week. Philly has limited tight ends to the third-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
- HOU -6.5, O/U 37.5
- Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Houston has operated with the 17th-fastest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral passing rate.
- The Patriots have had the 12th-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB1 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | RB2 |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | RB4 |
| Cam Akers | RB | Sit |
| Xavier Hutchinson | WR | WR6 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR2/3 |
| Tank Dell | WR | WR3/4 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE1 |
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
| Drake Maye | QB | QB2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Out |
| Antonio Gibson | RB | RB2/3 |
| Ja’Lynn Polk | WR | WR4/5 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | WR4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | WR7 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Dell has had a rough 2024 season so far as the WR70 in fantasy points per game. Dell has seen only a 13.3% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, and a 13.3% first-read share with 1.07 YPRR. Dell has one end zone target and two red zone looks this season. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two-high this season (51.3%). Against two-high, Dell has had a disappointing 13% TPRR, 0.84 YPRR, and a 13% first-read share. Last year, against this coverage type, Dell posted a 20% TPRR, 2.02 YPRR, and a solid 17.4% first-read share. With Diggs likely to get the Christian Gonzalez treatment, Dell could be leaned on this week. Dell is likely to see Jonathan Jones (69.2% catch rate and 106.9 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (career: 69.3% catch rate and 115.2 passer rating) for most of the day.
Schultz has been on the outside looking in this year. Houston hasn’t leaned on him much, but that could change this week. Schultz is the TE25 in fantasy points per game with an 11.6% target share, 0.77 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. He has two red zone targets this season. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two-high this season (51.3%). Against two-high this season, Schultz only has an 11% target share and an 11% first-read share. Last year, against two-high, he was second on the team in TPRR (25%) and first-read share (18.5%) with a strong 1.79 YPRR. The matchup this week also leans in the direction of Houston, featuring the tight end position. New England has allowed the third-highest yards per reception and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
New England is tossing Maye into the fire. I hope that the talented rookie doesn’t get scarred from the experience. The Patriots offensive line is allowing the second-highest pressure rate and the sixth-lowest time to pressure. Houston is fourth in pressure rate. This isn’t a recipe for success for a quarterback who needed some seasoning entering the league and didn’t wow anyone with his preseason performance. Among 53 quarterbacks in the preseason, Maye ranks 18th in passing grade, 35th in yards per attempt, 36th in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in clean pocket passer rating. While Maye scrambles to find open receivers this week, he’ll face a secondary that has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest CPOE.
Mixon looks to be back this week. He had limited practices on Thursday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable, but he’s expected to play and handle a sizable workload. In his only full game this season, he handled 33 touches and produced 178 total yards. Mixon has only forced a missed tackle on 10% of his runs, with 2.28 yards after contact per attempt. These aren’t great numbers, and this week, while Mixon is playing, he is likely still not 100%, so we can’t expect his tackle-breaking to be much better than that baseline. He has a tough matchup this week, but if he sees anything close to his usual volume and red zone role, he’s somewhere in the RB2 realm. New England has allowed the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-lowest rushing success rate.
Pierce will be back this week, but with Mixon playing, Pierce is a firm sit in all formats.
Akers isn’t playable in fantasy. Mixon and Pierce will be back, pushing Akers back to RB3 on the depth chart.
Stevenson has been ruled out for Week 6 (foot).
Stevenson has been ruled out for Week 6 (foot). In a part-time role, Gibson has played 22-47% of the snaps weekly, averaging 8.6 touches and 58.6 total yards. He’s been explosive with his touches, ranking eighth in explosive run rate and second in yards after contact per attempt (among 59 qualifying backs). Gibson is a volume play against what is a tough Houston run defense. The Texans have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, but they have also crushed gap runners, giving up the seventh-lowest yards per carry and the second-lowest gap success rate (Gibson 62.9% gap). New England’s offensive line won’t help Gibson much, as they have the 11th-lowest yards before contact per attempt generated.
Diggs has been a surprise this season as the WR12 in fantasy points per game. He has a 21.1% target share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 26.2% first-read share. He has drawn one end-zone target while ranking second on the team in red-zone targets (three). New England has the sixth-highest rate of two-high this season (51.3%). Against two-high, Diggs is second on the team in TPRR (21%) and first-read share (24.7%) while producing 1.50 YPRR. Last week, Diggs played even amounts on the perimeter and in the slot after Nico Collins was out. This is important because this week, he is likely to be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez (55.6% catch rate and 65.2 passer rating). He won’t be able to get away from Gonzalez in the slot, as Gonzalez has moved into the slot on 17.3% of his snaps this season. Gonzalez has followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk on 53.8-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf finishes with more than 60 receiving yards in his coverage. Diggs should be fed volume this week, but I’m not incredibly high about his Week 6 outlook.
Douglas is the WR73 in fantasy points per game with two top 36 weekly finishes (WR26, WR36). Douglas has one red zone target this season. He has been a dependable weapon for the passing attack when they have featured him. This season, he has a 16.8% target share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 3, Houston has had the 12th-highest rate of single-high (58.8%). Against single-high, Douglas has seen his target share increase to 18.8% and his first-read share jump to 23.3%. Douglas will run about 77% of his routes against Jalen Pitre (65% catch rate and 92.3 passer rating).
Over the last two weeks, Polk has had an 84.2% route share, a 19.7% target share, a 45.2% air-yard share, 0.67 YPRR (ewwww), and a 27.7% first-read share. He hasn’t done much with the volume, with only 21.5 receiving yards per game. Polk has two red zone targets this season. Polk is a worth a stash in deeper leagues, but he’s not a player I’m rushing to get into any lineups. Houston has allowed the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 3, Henry has faded into the background of this offense with a 9.8% target share, 17.7 receiving yards per game, 0.71 YPRR, and a 9% first-read share. He’ll continue to prepare for Halloween with his ghost costume this week against a pass defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pace and playcalling notes
- Baltimore keeps sprinting (fourth in neutral pace) while relying on their run game (sixth in neutral rushing rate).
- Washington mirrors Baltimore’s run-heavy approach (first in neutral rushing rate), but they have the third-slowest neutral pace in the NFL.
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jayden Daniels | QB | QB1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Out |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | RB2/3 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WR1/2 |
| Noah Brown | WR | WR5 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | WR6 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | WR4 |
| Zach Ertz | TE | TE1/2 |
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | RB3/4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR2/3 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Hill is a decent flex play. He is the RB37 in fantasy points per game, averaging 7.2 touches and 52.4 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 29th in explosive run rate and 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt. The matchup doesn’t bode well for Hill’s receiving upside, but he could make the most of this rushing work. Hill has a 12.6% target share, ranks fourth in receiving yards per game, and fifth in YPRR among 35 qualifying backs. Washington ranks 16th in receiving yards per game to backs while giving up the 13th-lowest yards per reception. They have also allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game and the second-highest explosive run rate.
Mclaurin is the WR32 in fantasy points per game as Daniels’ alpha wide receiver. He has been a volume hog with a 26.1% target share, a 55.1% air-yard share, 2.20 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share. Daniels’ progression has been noticeable for McLaurin’s fantasy stock. Since Week 3, McLaurin is the WR13 in fantasy points per game. McLaurin leads the team with four end-zone targets. Baltimore has been giving to perimeter wide receivers, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest passer rating when targeted. McLaurin will run about 80% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.5% catch rate and 88.1 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (62.5% catch rate and 90.2 passer rating).
Flowers is the WR39 in fantasy points per game with three weeks of WR3 or higher production on his 2024 resume (WR35, WR11, WR14). Flowers has earned a 25.2% target share with 1.77 YPRR and a 31.3% first-read share. Flowers should be able to take advantage of a still suspect Washington secondary that has allowed the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted and the 12th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Flowers is tied for third on the team in red zone targets. Flowers will run about 66% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (59.5% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating) and Mik Sainristil (73.7% catch rate and 137.3 passer rating).
Bateman is the WR61 in fantasy points per game with a 14.6% target share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 14.6% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with two end-zone targets. Washington has the fourth-highest two-high rate (59.6%). Against two-high, Bateman’s market share has dipped with a 12.9% target share and an 11.5% first-read share, but his per-route efficiency has increased with 1.87 YPRR. Bateman is a bye-week or desperation flex this week. Washington’s secondary has allowed the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted and the 12th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Batema will run about 90% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (59.5% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating) and Mik Sainristil (73.7% catch rate and 137.3 passer rating).
Last week, McCaffrey had a 61.1% route share. This was only the second time this season that he has eclipsed a 60% route share (Week 1). This is a perfect matchup for Washington to ramp up McCaffrey’s usage further. He has only a 7.5% target share, 1.18 YPRR, and a 7.1% first-read share this season. Baltimore has been gashed by slot receivers all season, allowing the third-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to the position. McCaffrey is a deep league flex play that could pay off immensely in Week 6.
Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 1.30 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. Ertz continues to get open and defy Father Time. Among 41 qualifying tight ends, he is fourth in separation and second in route win rate. Ertz should flirt with TE1 stats this week against a Ravens pass defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
If you’re itching to start a Baltimore tight end this week, it should be Likely. Over the last two weeks, he has had a solid 60% route share. Washington has the fourth-highest two-high rate (59.6%). Against two-high, Likely is second on the team in TPRR (25%), YPRR (2.32), and first-read share (17.3%). Likely could operate as the team’s WR2 against this coverage matchup. Washington has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per reception and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Robinson Jr. has been ruled out for Week 6 (knee).
Ekeler has played 43% or higher in three of his four games this season while averaging 7.6 touches and 75.3 total yards. He is the RB29 in fantasy points per game. The decreased volume this season has helped some of his former efficiency creep back into his game. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks fifth in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Ekeler is an RB2/3 volume play in a terrible matchup. He should operate as a workhorse with bell-cow upside this week. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Ravens have allowed some production to receiving backs, though, with the 14th-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most receiving yards per game allowed. Ekeler has a 10.6% target share while ranking second in receiving yards per game (37.8) and first in YPRR (3.08) among 35 qualifying backs.
Andrews remains a dicey tight-end play for fantasy. Despite drawing an 11.9% target share and finishing with four receptions and 55 receiving yards last week, he only had a 48.9% route share as Todd Monken continues to play the roulette wheel with player usage. Across his last two game, his usage looks even worse, with a 42.6% route share and only a 9.8% target share. It continues to fluster me to see Andrews used like this because the talent is still there. Among 41 qualifying tight ends, he ranks second in separation and third in route win rate. It’s a week to continue to sit Andrews, as Washington has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per reception and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
