If your fantasy football team has three or more wins right now, this small sermon isn’t for you. If you have a 2-3 record, one win, or maybe you are winless, HEAR ME NOW!
THIS ISN’T THE TIME TO FOLD! THIS ISN’T THE TIME TO RETREAT!
It’s time to FIGHT! To dig deep and find the best version of yourself as a Fantasy GM.
Grinding the waiver wire. Capitalizing on trades. Starting high-upside, matchup-based plays. This season is far from over, and YOU CAN COME BACK and sniff fantasy football glory.
So…let’s get to it. Welcome to the Week 6 Primer. Enjoy.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
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Fantasy Football Primer
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
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- SF -3, O/U 49.5
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The 49ers continue to do 49ers things with the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the 14th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Seattle continues to operate in a fantasy-friendly manner, with the fastest neutral pace and second-best neutral passing rate.
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Brock Purdy | QB | QB1/2 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB1 |
| Isaac Guerendo | RB | RB5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | WR2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | WR2 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | WR5 |
| George Kittle | TE | TE1 |
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
| Geno Smith | QB | QB1/2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | RB1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | RB4 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR3 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | WR4/5 |
| Noah Fant | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Purdy has been his usual efficient self, but passing touchdown luck has hurt his fantasy production as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks first in yards per attempt and CPOE and fifth in passing yards per game, but he is only 12th in passing touchdowns this season. This could be the boxscore stuffing game for Purdy. Seattle’s pass defense has shown cracks in the pavement. They have allowed the 14th-highest passer rating and CPOE while also struggling against a 49ers’ offensive staple. San Francisco loves utilizing motion in their game plan. Purdy has the seventh-most pre-snap motion dropbacks. Seattle has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating and the highest CPOE to pre-snap motion.
Chef Geno continues to cook as the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Much of his success has been volume-driven in Seattle’s pass-happy attack, but Smith has stood out in some efficiency metrics. He is first in passing attempts and passing yards per game while also ranking fifth in CPOE and sixth in catchable target rate. Smith should also benefit this week from Seattle’s use of pre-snap motion (Smith is 13th in pre-snap motion dropbacks). San Francisco can be passed on as they have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied). They have also surrendered the sixth-highest passer rating and CPOE and the third-highest yards per attempt to passing plays that involved pre-snap motion.
The Brandon Aiyuk bounceback game occurred last week as he finished as the WR10 in weekly PPR scoring which pulled him up to WR47 in fantasy points per game for the season. Aiyuk now has a 22.8% target share, a 26.6% air-yard share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share while ranking second in end-zone targets (four). Seattle has the seventh-highest single-high rate (59.1%). Aiyuk leads the 49ers in TPRR (25%) and YPRR (2.68) against single-high while ranking second in first-read share (26.4%). Aiyuk will run about 81% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72% catch rate and 86.1 passer rating) and Tre Brown (66.7% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Seattle has been run of the mill against perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most receiving yards per game.
Samuel is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20.5% target share, a 21.3% air-yard share, and a 25.3% first-read share with 1.89 YPRR. He is fourth on the team with five red-zone targets and he hasn’t drawn an end-zone target. Seattle has the seventh-highest single-high rate (59.1%). Samuel ranks third on the team in target share (21.7%), second in YPRR (2.24), and first in first-read share (29.3%) against single-high. His usage against single-high has dropped some recently as Aiyuk has resumed his status as the go-to receiver for this offense against single-high. Since Week 4, against single-high, Samuel is fourth in TPRR (18%) and second in YPRR (2.03). Aiyuk should lead the way again this week against Seattle. Samuel will run about 52% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72% catch rate and 86.1 passer rating)and Tre Brown (66.7% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Seattle has been run of the mill against perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most receiving yards per game.
Smith-Njigba is the WR36 in fantasy points per game with three top 36 weekly finishes this season (WR8, WR32, WR28). Smith-Njigba has a 20.1% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 1.34 YPRR, and a 19.7% first-read share. He leads the team in red-zone and end-zone targets with three a piece. Over the last two games, San Francisco has leaned more into single-high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (61.1%). Against single-high, Smith-Njigba ranks second on the team in target share (19.8%) and first-read share (22.4%), but he has been relatively ineffective with only 1.10 YPRR (fifth on the team). He could get an efficiency bump this week, though, against a 49ers’ secondary that has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers. Smith-Njigba will run about 89% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (58.3% catch rate and 69.4 passer rating).
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Lockett is the WR51 in fantasy points per game, but he has displayed a decently high floor. He has at least four receptions and 61 receiving yards in three of his five games, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, so it’s pulling his fantasy status down. Lockett has had a 14.6% target share, a 22.9% air-yard share, 1.62 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share. Over the last two games, San Francisco has leaned more into single-high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (61.1%). Against single-high, Lockett’s numbers have remained largely unchanged while noting that his first-read share has increased mildly to 19.4%. Lockett will run about 72% of his routes against Isaac Yiadom (68.8% catch rate and 115.9 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (56.5% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating). Lockett is a sit this week against a pass defense that has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Fant remains a fantasy ghost this season. He has only a 9% target share, 0.96 YPRR, and an 11.8% first-read share. He has drawn only one end-zone target. The 49ers have held tight ends in check with the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards allowed to the position. Sit Fant.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears
Pace and playcalling notes
- Jacksonville’s offense finding its footing means great things for Fantasy GMs, as they are ninth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.
- Over the last two weeks, Chicago has continued to run fast on offense (seventh in neutral pace), but they have leaned run heavy (third in neutral rushing rate).
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB2/3 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB2/3 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR3 |
| Gabe Davis | WR | WR5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR2/3 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TBD |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TBD |
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB1/2 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | RB2 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | RB3/4 |
| DJ Moore | WR | WR2 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | WR3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR4 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | TE1 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Last week Williams showed some life as the QB6 in fantasy. We’ll see if he can build upon the last two weeks with a soft secondary matchup this week. Since Week 4, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams has ranked second in yards per attempt, 14th in CPOE, 18th in passing yards per game, and 17th in highly accurate throw rate. Not amazing but also an improvement over what we saw in his first three games. I will note that he also still had the 12th-highest off target throw rate in that sample, so it’s not all sunshine and dreams come true over the last two weeks. Jacksonville has been a bottom of the barrel pass defense all season and a wonderous fantasy point injection for quarterbacks. They have allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the most fantasy points via passing this season.
Swift has been awesome over the last two games as the RB3 in fantasy points per game, averaging 65% of the snaps, 23 touches, and 142.5 total yards per game. Over that span, among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 22nd in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Good matchups and volume have been the engines of his production, while his tackle-breaking has remained modest. Swift will be running into brick walls this week on the ground, so he’ll need all the passing game usage he can get. Jacksonville has kept rushers in check with the eighth-lowest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Swift has an 11.2% target share while ranking ninth in YPRR and seventh in receiving yards per game (33) among 35 qualifying backs. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs.
Etienne is dealing with a shoulder issue, and it has drastically affected his playing time. Over the last two games, he has averaged only 45% of the snaps with 12 touches and 60 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. The Bears run defense has been up and down. While they have the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they have also been exceptionally vulnerable to gap runs. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the 11th-highest success rate to this run play type (Etienne 64% gap). With this snap rate cut, he’s a dicey RB2, but the path is there for him to pay off this week, even with limited volume.
Bigsby exploded in Week 5 with a 40% snap rate, 14 touches, 129 total yards, and two scores. He played 60% of the rushing play snaps and had a 33% red zone snap rate. In the three games this season, Bigsby has played at least 29% of the snaps, he has averaged 11 touches and 97.3 total yards. He’s been absolutely electric. Among 57 qualifying backs, Bigsby is putting up efficiency stats that would make De’Von Achane blush last year, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. The Bears run defense has been up and down. While they have the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they have also been exceptionally vulnerable to gap runs. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and have given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs and the 11th-highest success rate to this run play type (Bigsby 67.6% gap). Bigsby is a strong flex play this week that could finish with RB2 numbers.
Moore has been Caleb Williams‘ go-to receiver as the WR20 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 24.7% target share, a 33.1% air-yard share, and a 28.4% first-read share with 1.65 YPRR. Moore is sixth in the NFL in red-zone targets while also tying for the team lead in end-zone targets (five). Jacksonville has been scorched by wide receivers, allowing the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Jacksonville has the eighth-highest rate of two-high (49%). Against two-high, Moore has seen his YPRR jump to 1.94 while his other baseline market share metrics have remained relatively stable. Moore will run about 80% of his routes against Ronald Darby (75.9% catch rate and 135.1 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (65.7% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating).
Allen has had an immensely disappointing season to date. He hasn’t managed more than 6.9 PPR points or 33 receiving yards in any game. He has drawn a 21% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, and a 26.4% first-read share with a sad 1.13 YPRR. Allen is fourth on the team in red-zone targets and third in end-zone targets. Jacksonville has the eighth-highest rate of two-high (49%). Against two-high, Allen is second in TPRR (24%) and first in first-read share (31.3%). This could be a great matchup to get Allen going after an injured and quiet start to the season. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Allen will run about 57% of his routes against Jarrian Jones (73.3% catch rate and 105.1 passer rating).
Odunze’s rookie season has been overall disappointing as the passing game has floundered for most of the season and Odunze has been the third wheel. Odunze is the WR64 in fantasy points per game with a 16.5% target share, a 20.2% first-read share, and 1.30 YPRR. Over the last two games, he has been running neck and neck with Keenan Allen with both, drawing 17.3% target shares and 21.2% first-read shares. Jacksonville has the eighth-highest rate of two-high (49%). Against two-high, Odunze is third on the team with a 22% TPRR and a 1.42 YPRR, but he is second in first-read share (26.3%), tied with D.J. Moore. It’s a great matchup for the Bears receivers, but with Odunze being the third wheel for the passing attack, it’s tough projecting him to have a big day. He’s still worth flex consideration, though, just based on the matchup. Jacksonville has been scorched by wide receivers, allowing the sixth-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Odunze will run about 65% of his routes against Ronald Darby (75.9% catch rate and 135.1 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (65.7% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating).
Thomas Jr. has been sprinting out the gate as the WR13 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 3, with Kirk factoring into the passing offense more, Thomas has tied for the team lead with a 23% target share, led the team with 2.78 YPRR, and ranked second with a 28.8% first-read share. Chicago has the eighth-highest single-high rate this season (58.7%). Against single-high, Thomas Jr. led the team with a 24.2% target share, a whopping 3.64 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. He’ll stress a strong Chicago secondary that has limited perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target. This is a case of strength versus strength, and let the best win the matchup this week. Thomas Jr. will run about 78% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (52.9% catch rate and 33.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (51.4% catch rate and 70.5 passer rating).
Since Kmet’s big performance in Week 3, he has had a 63% route share, a 17.3% target share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 17.9% first-read share. His route share is passable, but the rest of his market share metrics are strong, considering the current fantasy landscape for the tight-end position. Overall, Kmet is the TE8 in fantasy points per game who ranks third on the team in red-zone targets. Kmet sits at the fringe of TE1 status again this week against a Jacksonville defense that has held the position to the 12th-fewest receiving yards.
Engram might be back this week, but we need to see his practice participation this week. We were sold the same bag of goods last week only for Engram to be held out. Sue me. I’m skeptical of everything that Doug Pederson says these days.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Lawrence finally displayed a pulse in fantasy football last week. He logged his first game with more than 15 fantasy points as the QB10 for the week (22.2 fantasy points). Unfortunately for Lawrence, his stay among the QB1s in fantasy will be short-lived as he is banished back to the basement this week. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt, 20th in passer rating, 29th in CPOE, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Chicago has been a brutal matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback and fantasy points via passing and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt. Lawrence is an easy sit in 1QB leagues.
Johnson’s role has remained the same as a handcuff or backup to Swift. Johnson has averaged 34% of the snaps, 8.5 touches, and 25.5 total yards with three total touchdowns over the last two weeks. He has only had 32% of the rushing play snaps and 26.7% of the red zone snaps during that period. Johnson’s value had been highly touchdown-related. He’s an easy sit this week in a tough rushing matchup. Jacksonville has kept rushers in check with the eighth-lowest rushing yards per game, the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed.
Since Week 3, Kirk has been heavily involved in the passing offense as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Over this stretch, he has tied for the team lead with a 23% target share, led the squad with a 32.9% air-yard share and 30% first-read share, and produced 2.48 YPRR. Chicago has the eighth-highest single-high rate this season (58.7%). Since Week 3, Kirk is second on the team in target share (21.5%), YPRR (1.76), and first-read share (26.9%) against single-high. Temper expectations for the Jaguars’ talented slot receiver this week. Chicago has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Kirk will run about 82% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (65% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating).
Since Week 3, Davis has only drawn a 13.3% target share and a 13.8% first-read share while producing a measly 0.59 YPRR. Davis is still searching for his first week of the season with double-digit PPR points, and I doubt he will break the bottom-of-the-barrel streak this week. Chicago’s secondary has limited perimeter wide receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game. Sit Davis.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and playcalling notes
- Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay has continued to move slowly (sixth-slowest neutral pace) and pass often (11th-best neutral passing rate).
- This game will crawl as New Orleans has the tenth-slowest neutral pace while operating with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1/2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2/3 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB3 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1/2 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TBD |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE1/2 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Spencer Rattler | QB | QB2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | RB1 |
| Kendre Miller | RB | RB5 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | RB4 |
| Chris Olave | WR | WR2/3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | WR2/3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE2 |
| Taysom Hill | TE | TBD |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Mayfield has been having arguably his best season as a pro in 2024. He is the QB3 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks second in passing touchdowns, third in passer rating, and 11th in CPOE. He faces a Saints pass defense that has been allowing a ton of yardage (seventh-most passing yards per game allowed) but has cracked down in every other category. New Orleans has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (only one) in the NFL, the 13th-lowest CPOE, and the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback. Mayfield should post another solid stat line in Week 6 but don’t expect smash numbers.
Olave has been disappointing this season (WR43) as he has been operating as the team’s WR2 behind Rashid Shaheed. This is definitely not how we thought Olave’s 2024 season would unfold, but this is where we are currently. Olave has garnered a 19.9% target share with a 24.7% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 25.3% first-read share. He remains tied for the team lead in end-zone targets and red-zone targets with two apiece. The Bucs have the third-highest rate of Cover 3 in the NFL (43.5%). Against Cover 3, Olave has seen his market share metric stay consistent with his overall numbers while his YPRR has jumped to 3.21. Olave will run about 69% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (48.1% catch rate and 92.1 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (66.7% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). This is a decent bounce-back spot for Olave against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Shaheed has been operating as the team’s WR1 this season (WR25 in fantasy points per game). If you take out his Week 3 performance, where he was blanked in the fantasy points column, his production stands at 17.8 PPR points per game, which would have him tied with Chris Godwin for WR8 for the season. Shaheed leads the team with a 25% target share, a ridiculous 50.2% air-yard share, 2.82 YPRR, and a 32.2% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead in end-zone targets and red-zone targets with two apiece. The Bucs have the third-highest rate of Cover 3 in the NFL (43.5%). Against Cover 3, Shaheed’s team-leading market share metrics all look similar to his overall usage numbers while noting that his YPRR has increased to 3.26. Shaheed will run about 76% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (48.1% catch rate and 92.1 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (66.7% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). Shaheed could keep the train rolling this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Johnson has seen his usage tick up over the last two games, with at least 68% of the snaps in each contest. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has had a 63.2% route share with an 11.3% target share, 0.92 YPRR, and a puny 9.8% first-read share. Johnson is a low-end matchup-based streamer this week against a Bucs team that has allowed the 13th-most receptions and receiving yards to the tight end position.
Otton has become the team’s trusted WR3 in the offense over the last three weeks. In that period, Otton has had a 19.2% target share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 16.4% first-read share. He is third on the team with three red zone targets. Since Week 3, he has been the TE11 in fantasy points per game. Otton should be a TE1 again this week against a Saints defense that has permitted the third-most receiving yards and the fourth-most receptions to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Rattler will draw the Week 6 start in place of Derek Carr, who will be sidelined for a few games (oblique). Rattler will have his work cut out for him this week. He wasn’t exactly impressive in the preseason. Among 60 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 48th in passing grade, 46th in yards per attempt, and 38th in adjusted completion rate. Before Kirk Cousins ripped this pass defense apart, this same secondary allowed the fourth-lowest passer rating and CPOE, the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest fantasy points via passing. Rattler will be tested early and often against a defense that is eighth in blitz rate.
White has been disappointing this season as the RB38 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two games, he has been conceding work to Bucky Irving, as White has averaged a 61% snap rate with 13 touches and 75 total yards per game. In those two games, he has had a 53% snap rate on rushing plays and retained his pass game usage with a 67.5% snap rate on passing downs, but he has lost the red zone battle with only a 48% snap rate (Irving 64%). I’m usually penning words in the Primer about White’s woeful per-touch efficiency, but I am happy to report that he has flipped the script in 2024. Among 59 qualifying backs, White has really stepped up his game in the last few weeks, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Sadly, this week’s matchup likely doesn’t help him improve or maintain those numbers. New Orleans continues to be a tough run defense, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Irving has eaten into White’s workload over the last two weeks with a 42-43% snap rate while averaging 11 touches and 55.5 total yards. He has accounted for a 51% snap rate on rushing plays and a 64% red zone snap rate since Week 4. Irving has been extremely efficient with his touches (among 59 qualifying backs), ranking seventh in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. This isn’t the week to flex him, though. New Orleans continues to be a tough run defense, allowing the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Sit Irving.
Hill missed last week’s game with rib fractures. I don’t expect him to suit up for Week 6.
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Arizona’s pace and passing rate approach has been snooze-worthy. The Cardinals are 15th in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- With Jordan Love back, Green Bay has moved swiftly (tenth-best neutral pace) but has leaned run-heavy (seventh-highest neutral rushing rate).
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kyler Murray | QB | QB1 |
| James Conner | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Benson | RB | RB5 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | WR1 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR4 |
| Greg Dortch | WR | WR5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1/2 |
| Christian Watson | WR | TBD |
| Jayden Reed | WR | WR1 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | TBD |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR2/3 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | TE1 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Harrison Jr. is the WR27 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 24.6% target share, a 43% air-yard share, and a 28.4% first-read share with 1.96 YPRR. Harrison Jr. leads the team with six end-zone targets. He has three weeks with WR3 or better finishes (WR1, WR20, WR26). Among 111 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 22nd in route win rate. Green Bay has the 12th-highest rate of single-high (58.2%). Against single-high, his numbers have ballooned with a 30.8% target share, a 45.3% air-yard share, 3.14 YPRR, and a 35.4% first-read share. Harrison Jr. should be the focal point of Arizona’s passing attack this week. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week didn’t pan out the way we all hoped for Wicks. I’m not fading Wicks after one down game where the Rams changed up their corners and found success in stopping Green Bay. He had a 62% route share while tying Jayden Reed for the team lead in target share (23.1%) while leading the way with a 44.2% air-yard share and ranking second in first-read share (23.8%). Wicks is second on the team in red-zone targets while leading the way in end-zone targets. This week, we should get the Wicks game that we all pinned for last week. Since Week 3, Arizona has had the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against single-high, Wicks leads the team with a 34% TPRR while posting a solid 2.18 YPRR and 0.105 FD/RR. Arizona has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Wick will run about 59% of his routes against Starling Thomas (55.6% catch rate and 119.9 passer rating) and Sean Murphy-Bunting (76.5% catch rate and 102.1 passe rating).
Kraft is a stone-cold baller. He is the TE4 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 13.5% target share. Among 41 qualifying tight ends, he is fifth in YPRR, eighth in receiving yards per game, and 14th in FD/RR. He leads the team with five red zone targets. Since Week 3, Arizona has had the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59.2%). Against single-high, Kraft is second on the team with 2.69 YPRR and third in FD/RR (0.093). Arizona is a middle-of-the-road matchup, allowing the 13th-highest yards per reception and 16th in receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 6 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Wilson has two WR3 weekly fantasy finishes this season (WR28, WR32). He has commanded an 18.8% target share with 1.60 YPRR and a 20.6% first-read share. Green Bay has the 12th-highest rate of single-high (58.2%). Against single-high, his target share has remained steady (18.5%), but his effectiveness (1.35 YPRR) and his first-read share (18.8%) have declined. Wilson is on the flex radar, but he isn’t a priority. He’s more regulated to deep league formats or if you find yourself in a bye-week pickle. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 2, Dortch has only seen a 13.1% target share with 1.12 YPRR and a 12.3% first-read share. Across his last four games, he hasn’t eclipsed 38 receiving yards in any game and has drawn only one red zone target. Sit Dortch and consider dropping him. Green Bay has held slot receivers to the fourth-lowest PPR points per target.
We’ll see if Doubs returns this week. Depending on the news, I’ll update his outlook on Friday.
I doubt we’ll see Watson suit up this week. He didn’t practice at all last week (ankle).
SF vs. SEA | JAC vs. CHI | TB vs. NO | ARI vs. GB | IND vs. TEN | CLE vs. PHI | HOU vs. NE | WAS vs. BAL | LAC vs. DEN | PIT vs. LV | ATL vs. CAR | DET vs. DAL | CIN vs. NYG | BUF vs. NYJ
