We have a month of regular-season NFL football behind us. Four weeks of two-high coverage, Derrick Henry‘s long-distance runs, Malik Nabers‘ highlight reel catches, Jayden Daniels‘ wizardry, and more. It has been a topsy-turvy season already. Every Fantasy Football GM in every league is scrambling to find a tight end that will score any points.
Don’t worry. The spreadsheets are open, and the fantasy football data is ready. The Primer is back for Week 5 to help as we begin to navigate NFL bye weeks like seasoned FantasyPros. Enjoy.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
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Fantasy Football Primer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
- ATL -1.5, O/U 44
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Each of these teams loves passing. Tampa Bay ranks 11th in neutral passing rate, followed by Atlanta at 13th. Their approaches to pace vary greatly, though. Tampa Bay has the slowest neutral pace in the NFL, while the Falcons lead the league in neutral pace.
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1/2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2/3 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB3/4 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR1 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | Out |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE2 |
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kirk Cousins | QB | QB2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | RB1/2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | RB3 |
| Drake London | WR | WR2 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | WR3/4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | WR | WR5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Mayfield is humming along as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 11th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. Atlanta has been a middle-of-the-road matchup overall as a pass defense. They have held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and the 11th-fewest fantasy points via passing, but this secondary also has allowed the ninth-highest CPOE and sits at 15th in passer rating. Mayfield should return strong QB1 numbers again this week with plenty of time in the pocket to deliver accurate passes. Atlanta is 15th in time to pressure and 18th in pressure rate.
Robinson has been disappointing thus far this season as the RB22 in fantasy. It’s tough to blame his offensive line for the shortcomings, as they are ranked sixth-best in yards before contact per attempt. Robinson simply hasn’t been breaking tackles at the same rate during this rookie season. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 19.7 touches and 85 total yards. During that stretch, he owned the backfield with 72% of the rushing play snaps, 91% of the passing down snaps, and 78% of the red zone snaps. Last week, his market share of the backfield volume fell off. He played only 47% of the rushing downs and 67% of the passing downs, with 11 touches and 74 total yards. This is a fantastic spot for a bounceback for Robinson. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been like Swiss cheese. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL.
Allgeier is a viable flex this week. Last week, he played a season-high 38% of the snaps with ten touches and 80 total yards. Overall this season, Allgeier is tied with Bijan Robinson with six red zone rushing attempts. Among 55 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Atlanta should lean on their ground game this week against the Bucs. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if Allgeier finishes the week as a low-end RB2 (if he gets into the end zone).
Otton has a 15.5% target share, 0.99 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. He is third on the team with three red zone targets. Atlanta has utilized single-high on 55.9% of their defensive snaps.Against single-high, his target share has bumped to 16%, while his first-read share has also increased to 17.9%. Otton is on the streaming radar this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receptions to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Cousins has been slowly acclimating to his new surroundings, but the early returns haven’t been amazing. He is the QB30 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in CPOE, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. He is a must-sit this week against a strong Bucs’ pass defense. Tampa Bay has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points via passing. Quarterbacks have had a tough time facing a secondary that has allowed the fourth-lowest CPOE.
White saw his role change in Week 4. Yes, maybe this was because of the food poisoning he was dealing with last weekend, but it also could be related to his relative ineffectiveness so far this season. Last week was the first time his snapshare has dropped below 70% this season (58%). White had 12 touches and 84 total yards. He had a near-even split with Bucky Irving on the rushing play snaps (54% vs. 50%) while he still dominated the passing down snaps (64%). White did lose the red zone battle with only a 40% snapshare (Irving, 67%). Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt, and he has the sixth-highest stuff rate. Atlanta hasn’t been an easy team to run on this year, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (White 68% zone).
Last week, Irving saw his role in the Bucs backfield increase. He played a season-high 42% of the snaps with 11 touches and 55 total yards. Irving had a 50% snap share on rushing plays and a 34% snap rate on passing downs, and he led the way for Tampa Bay with a 67% snapshare inside the 20-yard line. White was dealing with food poisoning last week, so maybe we can attribute this to that. It’s equally possible he is eating into the workload of one of the NFL’s most inefficient rushers. Irving has been explosive when he has gotten opportunities. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh-best in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Irving has a tough task on early downs this week. Atlanta hasn’t been an easy team to run on this year, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The lone sliver of hope for Irving is that Atlanta has also given up the second-highest success rate to gap runs (Irving 54% gap).
London has been seeing a massive amount of volume as the clear WR1 for Atlanta. He has a 26.1% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share as the WR31 in fantasy. He leads the Falcons with three end-zone targets. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, London’s volume and efficiency metrics have stayed stable near his overall output, while his first-read share has crept up to 38.6%. London will have to overcome a tough Week 5 matchup with volume. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. London will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).
Mooney is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two top 36 weekly finishes (WR18, WR36) this season. He has drawn a 19.3% target share with a 32.9% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a strong 24.3% first-read share. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, his target share has dropped slightly to 17.6%, and his YPRR has cratered (0.94). Mooney is best left on the bench this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mooney will run about 58% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).
McMillan has been ruled out for Week 5 (hamstring).
Just as Pitts offered some hope last week with a season-high five targets and 59 receiving yards, he followed that game up with his worst outing of the season. Pitts only saw three targets last week and failed to secure any of them as he blanked the box score. Pitts has only managed a pitiful 10.9% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. That minuscule first-read share ranks fifth on the Atlanta depth chart. Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 15th in receptions per game allowed to the position. Sit Pitts this week.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings
- MIN -2.5, O/U 40.5
- New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Jets rank 17th in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral passing rate.
- Minnesota has the eighth-slowest neutral pace while rocking the fifth-best neutral passing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | RB1 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | RB3 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | WR2 |
| Mike Williams | WR | WR4/5 |
| Allen Lazard | WR | WR3/4 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | TE2 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB1 |
| Ty Chandler | RB | RB4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR6 |
| Johnny Mundt | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jones continues to crush this season as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 20 touches and 116.1 total yards. Among 53 qualifying running backs, he ranks seventh in explosive run rate and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Jones should be the engine of the Vikings offense this week. The strength of the Jets’ defense is their secondary, but you can run on this defense. The Jets have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the tenth-highest success rate to zone runs (Jones 56.3% zone).
Conklin’s box score explosion was short-lived. In Week 4, he came crashing back to earth with 17 receiving yards despite drawing eight targets. Overall, he has a 12.5% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a paltry 7.5% first-read share. He has drawn only one red zone target. Conklin could see an elevated role again this week and produce with his volume. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Conklin has seen his target share increase to 16.4% while his YPRR has bumped to a strong 1.75. His first read share remains a watered-down 8.9%, so it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Conklin. The matchup is wonderful, though. Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Darnold has been playing absolutely amazing football as the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, tenth in CPOE, and ninth in highly accurate throw rate. This will be a huge test to see how much of his growth this season is real. We’ll see if he can keep the ghosts at bay against his former team. The Jets pass defense remains among the best in the league. They have allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, the lowest CPOE, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback.
Rodgers has had moments where he looks like prime Aaron Rodgers this season. The problem is that they haven’t been frequent enough. This isn’t a week to consider starting him and hoping for the old magic to resurface. Rodgers is the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, 33rd in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Minnesota has been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Quarterbacks facing them have had the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the second-lowest EPA per dropback.
Allen has played 32-36% of the snaps weekly, averaging 10.7 touches and 56.7 total yards. Allen is the RB37 in fantasy points per game. He has been extremely efficient with his touches, ranking fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. Despite that fact, this isn’t a week to consider flexing Allen. Minnesota has been incredible as a run defense, allowing the lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the second-fewest rushing yards per game.
Wilson has had a tough run to open the season. Whether it has been defenses scheming up to stop him, Wilson receiving tough shadow coverage, or him and Rodgers not syncing up, it has been rough. Wilson is the WR43 in fantasy points per game despite a 25% target share, a 34% air-yard share, and a 31.2% first-read share. Wilson has produced only 47.8 receiving yards per game and 1.36 YPRR. Wilson is tied with Allen Lazard for the team lead with five red zone targets. This week doesn’t look any more promising. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Wilson will run about 61% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
Last week, Addison made his return to the lineup and was very efficient with his work. He had a 69.7% route share, a 14.3% target share, a 29.8% air-yard share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. He scored two touchdowns (one through the air and a rushing score). I can’t count on Addison to continue that type of efficiency with his limited volume this week. The Jets have allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Addison will run about 69% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (70% catch rate and 137.9 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (36.4% catch rate and 44.9 passer rating).
Lazard has surprised this season as the WR24 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets while also registering a 17.6% target share, a 23.5% air-yard share, 1.66 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Lazard has seen his target share and first-read shares increase to 19.4% and 24.4%. He leads the team in FD/RR against two high (0.095). With all that said, he also has a tough matchup this week, so temper your expectations. Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Lazard will run about 56% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
Williams is a sit this week. Since Week 2, he has had a 54.8% route share, a 9.3% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (78.6%). Against two high, Williams has a mild increase to this target share to 13.7% with 2.03 YPRR and an 18.2% first-read share (third on the team). Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Williams will run about 82% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (77.3% catch rate and 92.6 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (47.1% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).
With Jordan Addison back, Nailor’s route share dropped to 33.3%, and his target share crumbled to 7.1%. In deeper formats, he’s worth holding on your rosters, but in 12-team leagues, Nailor is droppable, and he’s not startable unless his route share comes back up.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pace and playcalling notes
- Baltimore continues to sprint while remaining run-heavy. They rank third and ninth in neutral pace and neutral rushing rate.
- Cincinnati has operated contrary to Baltimore’s approach. They have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at third in neutral passing rate.
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
| Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
| Justice Hill | RB | RB3/4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | WR3 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | WR4/5 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | WR6 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | TE2 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | TE2/3 |
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Burrow | QB | QB1/2 |
| Zack Moss | RB | RB2/3 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | WR1 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | WR2/3 |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR4 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | TE1/2 |
| Erick All | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Burrow should have another strong week as a QB1. Burrow is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and 14th in highly accurate throw rate. He faces a Baltimore pass defense that handled its business against the Bills, but overall, this season, it has been lacking. They have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing yards per game, and the tenth-most fantasy points to passing. Burrow should have time in the pocket as Baltimore has the 14th-lowest time to pressure and the 13th-lowest pressure rate.
Hill has been a viable flex this season, averaging 7.5 touches and 59.3 total yards per game. The bulk of that has come through the air, as Hill has averaged four receptions and 40.3 receiving yards per game. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hill ranks fifth in target share (15.6%), third in YPRR, and fourth in receiving yards per game. Cincy has allowed the ninth-most receptions to running backs this season.
Since his return to the lineup, Higgins has had a 21.7% target share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share (leads the team). He also led the team over the last two games with two end-zone targets. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore is fifth in two-high usage (55.1%). Over the last two weeks, Higgins ranks second on the team with a 16.3% target, fourth in TPRR (18%), and tied for first in first-read share (22.2%) against two-high. Higgins will run about 82% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (54.2% catch rate and 84.7 passer rating) and Nate Wiggins (75% catch rate and 110.4 passer rating). Baltimore has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Flowers still leads the Baltimore passing attack with a 23.9% target share and a 29% first-read share despite only producing 1.41 YPRR. Flowers has averaged only 39.5 receiving yards per game, and his puny 7.4 aDOT can be partially to blame. There’s hope this week that he can create some big plays and yards after the catch against a defense that has allowed the 13th-most missed tackles. Cincy has the seventh-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single high, Flowers has seen his target share jump to 27.3% and his YPRR increase to 1.57. Since Week 3, Cincy has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers.
Bateman has only seen a 12.8% target share (1.45 YPRR) and a 13% first-read share as Baltimore’s deep threat. He has a 29.3% air-yard share (15.4 aDOT) and leads the team with four deep targets. There’s some hope that Bateman can offer some flex appeal this week against a Bengals’ secondary that has allowed the 12th-highest passer rating and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Cincy has the seventh-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single high, Bateman has seen his target share climb to 15.9% and his first-read share bump to 20%. Since Week 3, Cincy has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the 11th-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. If you’re dealing with injuries or bye week hell, consider Bateman for a flex spot.
Last week, Gesicki only managed one target, but he was still Cincy’s starting tight end with a 53% route share. Overall, this season, Gesicki has a 14.2% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 17.8% first-read share. Gesicki has two end zone targets as the TE14 in fantasy points per game. Gesicki is a fringe TE1 again this week. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week Brown played a season-high 40% of snaps producing 92 total yards and two scores with his 17 touches. He ate into Moss’s workload with a 50% rushing play snap rate and a 67% red zone snap rate. Brown has been lightning in a bottle. When he has received touches, he has made the most of his opportunities. Among 55 qualifying backs, Brown ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, he’s tasked with a horrendous matchup for Week 5. Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Moss is the RB21 in fantasy points per game, but Week 4 saw the rug get pulled out from under him as Chase Brown was more involved. It was the first game that Moss played less than 65% of the snaps (60%). Moos still finished with 19 touches and 78 total yards. In Week 4, he saw his rushing snap rate fall from 71.2% (in Weeks 1-3) to 50%, and his red zone snap rate plummet to 36.4% (Brown 63.6%). Moss hasn’t been overly impressive on a per-touch basis. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. This is a horrible matchup for Moss. Baltimore has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Over the last two weeks with Tee Higgins back, Iosivas has earned an 11.6% target share with 1.42 YPRR and a 9.5% first-read share. He’s seen a target squeeze with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins soaking up so much of the volume. Over the last two weeks, Baltimore is fifth in two-high usage (55.1%). This season, against two high, his numbers have improved versus his last two-game sample. Against two high, Iosivas has had a 14.6% target share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share. None of these numbers are amazing. Iosivas is tied for second on the team with two end zone targets against two high. Iosivas will run about 72% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (60.9% catch rate and 65.5 passer rating).
Andrews’ fantasy appeal is on life support. Last week, he only had a 30% route share and a 5.3% target share. Even if we expand our gaze to the last two weeks, the outlook isn’t any prettier. Since Week 3, Andrews has had a 27% route share, a 5.9% target share, and zero receptions. I just don’t get it, but this is where we are with the Baltimore passing attack. At this point, we need a prove-it game from Andrews in order to trust him in a fantasy lineup. That’s a sentence I never thought I’d type, but it’s true. Cincy doesn’t offer a rosie outlook for Andrews this week. The Bengals have held tight ends to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards.
Last week, All had a season-high 60% snap share, but much of that was just blocking, as his route share was 28.1%. Yes, he drew a 12.9% target share and produced 3.11 YPRR, but he doesn’t see enough routes to be fantasy-viable (yet).
Likely isn’t playable in fantasy right now. Since Week 2, he has a 43% route share, an 8.8% target share, and has averaged only 18.7 receiving yards per game. If you need the room on your bench, he’s droppable. The Bengals have held tight ends to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
- CHI -4, O/U 41.5
- Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- It’s not working well, but Chicago continues to play fast and lean pass-happy. They rank fifth-best in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
- With Andy Dalton under center, Carolina ranks 10th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Andy Dalton | QB | QB2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | RB2 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | RB4 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | WR2 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jonathan Mingo | WR | WR6 |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | TE2/3 |
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB2 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | RB2/3 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | RB4 |
| DJ Moore | WR | WR2/3 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | WR3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR4 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Williams has had a rough transition to the NFL, no matter how you slice it, as the QB28 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 30th in CPOE, and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks from a clean pocket, Williams ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and he has logged the seventh-highest off-target rate. Williams has another juicy pass defense to face this week, but it’s worth seriously considering if he can take advantage of it at this point. Carolina has allowed the 14th-highest CPOE, the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the third-most fantasy points to passing.
With Dalton under center, Hubbard has been the RB4 in fantasy points per game, averaging a 66% snap rate, 24 touches, and 145 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs this season, Hubbard ranks 18th in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard faces a run defense this week that has done a solid job of shutting down zone rushers. Overall, Chicago has allowed the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They have also held rushers to the seventh-lowest zone success rate (Hubbard 76.4% zone).
Last week taught us simply to start all your running backs against the Rams this season. Before Week 4, Swift hadn’t had more than 30 rushing yards or 24 receiving yards in any game this season. Last week, he played 63% of the snaps with 23 touches and 165 total yards as the RB3 for the week. Swift played better last week with a 25% missed tackle rate, but his 1.50 yards after contact per attempt is more telling. The wonderful matchup last week really helped him, as he had 4.3 yards before contact per attempt. He legit was able to chew up four yards per carry before encountering any resistance. Overall, among 53 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 27th in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 53rd in yards after contact per attempt. Carolina offers another juicy matchup for Swift to pad his stats this week. Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the sixth-highest success rate to zone runs (Swift 57% zone).
Last week’s “extended look” at Roschon Johnson looked eerily similar to Week 3. Johnson didn’t see an expanded role in the offense, as he had the exact same snap rate (37%) while handling seven touches and producing 26 rushing yards. Swift took back the red zone snap lead, too (54.5% vs. 45.5%). We found out last year that this coaching staff can’t be trusted with running back usage and reporting. Well, it remains early in the 2024 season, but once again, we have been “Eberflused.” Johnson rolls back into the desperation flex play or RB3 area code. Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
With Dalton under center, Johnson has been cooking with a 32.1% target share, a 57.2% air-yard share, 2.89 YPRR, and 43.1% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has been the WR3 in fantasy points per game. In just those two games, he has seen an insane six end-zone targets. Chicago has the tenth-highest single high rate (56.5%). Since Week 3 against single-high, Johnson has seen his target share balloon to 38.3% with a 69.7% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 50% first-read share. Chicago will be a formidable challenge for Johnson. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson will run about 85% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8% catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6% catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
Moore has been held down by the lackluster play of Williams thus far this season. Moore is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with a 24.1% target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 31.1% first-read share. Moore ranks seventh in NFL in red zone targets (tied). He faces his former team, which is third in single-high rate (68.8%). Against single-high, Moore’s target share has increased to 25.3%, and his first-read share has jumped to 34.5%. Carolina has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Moore will run about 82% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (60% catch rate and 73.8 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (63.3% catch rate and 82.2 passer rating).
Since Week 3, Kmet has had a 59.8% route share, an 18.7% target share, 2.67 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Kmet is second in red zone targets for Chicago. Kmet is a borderline TE1 this week against a Panthers’ pass defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Dalton is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 12th in passer rating, 21st in CPOE, third in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Despite this glittering production, Dalton remains a QB2 this week. Chicago has been really tough against quarterbacks this season. They have held passers in check, allowing the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, the 13th-lowest CPOE, and the second-fewest fantasy points via passing.
Last week, Allen returned to the lineup with a 69% route share, a 13% target share, 1.06 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Last week, Williams was locked onto D.J. Moore (42.9% first-read share) and no one else. Hopefully, Allen can bounce back this week, but it’s tough to trust him and to be honest, it’s not really an Allen thing. It’s the fact that Williams isn’t playing well enough to support one receiver weekly, much less 2-3 wide receivers. Carolina is third in single-high rate (68.8%). Against single-high, Allen has a 23.3% target share and a 28.6% first-read share. The Panthers have been tougher against slot receivers, ranking 15th in PPR points per target and allowing the 12th-lowest passer rating when targeted. Allen will run about 56% of his routes against Troy Hill (88.9% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating).
Last week Legette finally got unleashed as a full-time player in the Panthers’ offense. He had an 81.4% route share, a 24.4% target share, a 33.8% air-yard share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 31% first-read share. Last week, among 74 qualifying receivers, Legette ranked 15th in separation and 12th in route win rate. It was a wonderful breakout game for a talented rookie who could use this as a springboard to a solid rest of the 2024 season. Chicago has the tenth-highest single-high rate (56.5%). Against single-high, Legette ranks second on the team with a 20% TPRR and 2.19 YPRR. Legette will have a tough matchup this week, so we’ll see how he responds. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson will run about 63% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8% catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6% catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
Odunze isn’t playable in fantasy right now. In Allen’s two active games this season, Odunze has had only an 11.5% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, and an 8.8% first-read share. He’s been an afterthought in a passing offense led by a struggling rookie quarterback. Until Williams reverses course, Odunze is tough to fit into any fantasy lineup.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC