Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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• PIT -2.5, O/U 44
• Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Dallas has operated with the 11th-best neutral pace while ranking 15th in neutral passing rate. The Steelers will look to slow the game down as they have the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• CeeDee Lamb

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Fields (QB)

Well, hello there, Justin Fields. After Fields’ monster Week 4 performance, he’s the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields ranks 12th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, third in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. Add this passing prowess on top of the fourth-most carries per game, the second-most red zone carries, and the seventh-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks, and you will heaping mounds of fantasy goodness. Fields is a strong QB1 this week, facing a Dallas pass rush that has been decimated by injuries and an ailing secondary. The Cowboys’ pass defense ranks 15th in EPA per dropback while allowing the tenth-highest yards per attempt and the eighth-highest CPOE.

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens is the WR38 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t tell the entire story, as he has two top 24 weekly finishes (WR24, WR22). He has drawn a whopping 26.6% target share, a 54.7% air-yard share, and a 35.3% first-read share with 2.63 YPRR. Pickens is tied for seventh in the NFL in red zone targets with D.J. Moore and Drake London. Dallas has utilized single-high with 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Pickens’ volume has exploded with a 36.2% target share, a 64% air-yard share, a 52.6% first-read share and 3.08 YPRR. Dallas has allowed the 14th-highest PPR points per target and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Pickens should enjoy another huge game in Week 5.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth is the TE7 in fantasy points per game. He is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. Freiermuth has a 17.6% target share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 19.1% first-read share. These are all extremely strong metrics, ranking seventh, ninth, and seventh among 35 qualifying tight ends. Dallas has utilized single-high with 56.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Freiermuth’s target share has increased to 20.7%, and his first-read share has bumped up to 21.1%. Dallas has faced the fewest targets to tight ends (tied), but they have allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Dak Prescott (QB)

This week is one to consider sitting Prescott, depending on your quarterback options. Prescott is the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 20th in yards per attempt, fourth in passing yards per game, 32nd in CPOE, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a strong Pittsburgh pass defense that simply had a hiccup last week. Overall, Pittsburgh has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-lowest passer rating, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Prescott also won’t have a ton of time to survey the field against a defense that has the seventh-best time to pressure and ranks 13th in pressure rate.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris has been solid but unspectacular this season as the RB34 in fantasy points per game. He has played at least 56% of the snaps in three of four games while averaging 19.5 touches and 78 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 38th in missed tackle forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris faces an up-and-down Dallas run defense. They locked down the Giants last week, but overall, they have been unimpressive. Dallas ranks 17th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt allowed.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Over the last two weeks, Dowdle has slowly earned more work in this backfield. He has led the way with a 53% snap share on rushing plays while playing 43.4% of the passing down snaps and logging a 55.6% snap rate inside the red zone. Dowdle has averaged 11.5 touches and 58.5 total yards. In that same period, among 40 qualifying backs, he has shown some tackle-breaking hope, ranking 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. With all that said, Dowdle is a touchdown-dependent flex this week. Pittsburgh has kept backs in check, allowing the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing yards per game, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Warren has been ruled out for Week 5.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB)

Elliott is droppable in all formats. He hasn’t played more than 19% of the snaps over the last two games while averaging only five touches and 18 total yards.

Jalen Tolbert (WR)

Tolbert is the WR58 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn an 11.8% target share, a 20% air-yard share, and a 14% first-read share with 1.27 YPRR. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. With CeeDee Lamb residing in the slot, Tolbert will match up with Joey Porter Jr. (69.2% catch rate and 124.2 passer rating) and Donte Jackson (52.9% catch rate and 45.2 passer rating) with about 69% of his routes. Porter Jr. has followed receivers to the slot on only nine snaps this season. Prior to last week’s poor showing, Pittsburgh had allowed the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game and the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks is sidelined this week and potentially longer as he is recovering from a knee infection.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying tight ends, he ranks third in target share (20.9%), fourth in YPRR (2.01) and receiving yards per game (53), and fourth in first-read share (19.8%). Ferguson hasn’t drawn a red zone target yet. Temper your expectations for Ferguson this week. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards and the fifth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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• KC -5.5, O/U 43.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New Orleans has the 11th-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Chiefs have picked up the pace, ranking ninth in neutral pace, but they are still lagging in passing, ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Kelce
• Alvin Kamara

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kareem Hunt (RB)

Hunt took over as the team’s leadback last week. He played 45% of the snaps with 16 touches and 85 total yards. Hunt led the way with a 58.3% snap share on rushing plays and split the red zone snaps with Perine (50% for each player). He conceded the passing game work to Perine with only a 32.4% passing down snapshare. Hunt looked good in his first game back, with a 21% missed tackle rate and 2.71 yards after contact per attempt. We’ll see if he can maintain that level of tackle-breaking as the volume piles up. Hunt has a decent matchup this week against the Saints, who have allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while also surrendering the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt. The Chiefs’ offensive line has done a decent job of opening up room for the backs, ranking 14th-best in yards before contact per attempt.

Chris Olave (WR)

Olave is the WR26 in fantasy points per game, and since Week 2, he’s been leading the way for New Orleans. He leads the team with a 27.3% target share and 3.58 YPRR while ranking second to only Rashid Shaheed in air-yard share (43.2% vs. 52.6%) and first-read share (34% vs. 36%). Olave and Shaheed are tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate (65.4%). The Saints’ attack plan for two-high has been equal measured doses of Olave and Shaheed. Their usage versus two-high is nearly identical. Olave has a 23.8% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 3.08 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share against two-high. Against two-high, Shaheed has a 23.8% target share, a 55.8% air-yard share, 3.03 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. This is a tough matchup for both players, but they have been so good against two-high that they could both easily succeed. Kansas City has allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Shaheed is the WR28 in fantasy points per game, and since Week 2, he’s been Olave’s running mate. Over the last three games, Shaheed has had a 26% target share, a 52.6% air-yard share, 2.56 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. Shaheed is tied with Olave for the team lead in red zone targets. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate (65.4%). The Saints’ attack plan for two-high has been equal measured doses of Olave and Shaheed. Their usage versus two-high is nearly identical. Olave has a 23.8% target share, a 38.6% air-yard share, 3.08 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share against two-high. Against two-high, Shaheed has a 23.8% target share, a 55.8% air-yard share, 3.03 YPRR, and a 32.1% first-read share. This is a tough matchup for both players, but they have been so good against two-high that they could both easily succeed. Kansas City has allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

After losing Rashee Rice to injury, Kansas City will be forced to lean more on Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. Overall, he has an 11.6% target share, a 28.4% air-yard share, 1.57 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. Last week, after Rice was sidelined, Worthy’s route share bumped up to 82% while he had a 12.5% target share, a 36.7% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (second to only Kelce). Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has the eighth-highest two-high rate (50.4%). Against two-high, Worthy’s market share has stayed stable with his overall numbers, but his YPRR has jumped to 2.20, and his first-read share has increased to 19.4%. Worthy could have a strong game this week. New Orleans has held perimeter wide receivers to the sixth-lowest PPR points per target while also surrendering the most receiving yards per game. Mahomes will lean on Worthy and Kelce.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Over the last two games, Johnson has seen his usage increase with a 52.3% route share. The bump in playing time hasn’t equaled more targets, as he’s had only a 4.9% target share and a 2.6% first-read share. This requires a leap of faith, but if you’re struggling at tight end this week, Johnson is on the match-up-based streaming radar. Kansas City has allowed the more receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Patrick Mahomes II (QB)

Yeah, sadly, this is where we are right now. Mahomes has fallen from must-start status. No, this isn’t an overreaction. He’s currently the QB16 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he has flashed his usual excellence, ranking ninth in CPOE and seventh in highly accurate throw rate, but it hasn’t equated to fantasy success as he’s 15th in yards per attempt, 20th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Depending on your options at quarterback this week, it’s worth considering streaming another quarterback over Mahomes. New Orleans has allowed only one passing touchdown this season, the lowest passer rating, the 11th-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points via passing.

Derek Carr (QB)

How fast the mighty have fallen. Carr is now the QB16 in fantasy points per game after back-to-back outings with less than 10 fantasy points. On paper, he’s still playing at a high level, ranking sixth in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Carr should have a mild bounce-back game this week against a middle-of-the-road Chiefs pass defense. Kansas City has allowed the 16th-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and ranks 15th in fantasy points via passing surrendered. The Chiefs’ pass rush could wreck Carr’s day if they get home in Week 5. The Chief’s pass rush has generated the third-best pressure rate. Over the last two weeks, Carr has the fifth-fastest time to pressure.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill has been ruled out.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

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• ATL -1.5, O/U 44
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Each of these teams loves passing. Tampa Bay ranks 11th in neutral passing rate, followed by Atlanta at 13th. Their approaches to pace vary greatly, though. Tampa Bay has the slowest neutral pace in the NFL, while the Falcons lead the league in neutral pace.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield is humming along as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 11th in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. Atlanta has been a middle-of-the-road matchup overall as a pass defense. They have held quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and the 11th-fewest fantasy points via passing, but this secondary also has allowed the ninth-highest CPOE and sits at 15th in passer rating. Mayfield should return strong QB1 numbers again this week with plenty of time in the pocket to deliver accurate passes. Atlanta is 15th in time to pressure and 18th in pressure rate.

Bijan Robinson (RB)

Robinson has been disappointing thus far this season as the RB22 in fantasy. It’s tough to blame his offensive line for the shortcomings, as they are ranked sixth-best in yards before contact per attempt. Robinson simply hasn’t been breaking tackles at the same rate during this rookie season. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 19.7 touches and 85 total yards. During that stretch, he owned the backfield with 72% of the rushing play snaps, 91% of the passing down snaps, and 78% of the red zone snaps. Last week, his market share of the backfield volume fell off. He played only 47% of the rushing downs and 67% of the passing downs, with 11 touches and 74 total yards. This is a fantastic spot for a bounceback for Robinson. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been like Swiss cheese. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Allgeier is a viable flex this week. Last week, he played a season-high 38% of the snaps with ten touches and 80 total yards. Overall this season, Allgeier is tied with Bijan Robinson with six red zone rushing attempts. Among 55 qualifying backs, Allgeier ranks 11th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Atlanta should lean on their ground game this week against the Bucs. They have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest rushing success rate. The Bucs have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL. Don’t be surprised if Allgeier finishes the week as a low-end RB2 (if he gets into the end zone).

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton has a 15.5% target share, 0.99 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. He is third on the team with three red zone targets. Atlanta has utilized single-high on 55.9% of their defensive snaps.Against single-high, his target share has bumped to 16%, while his first-read share has also increased to 17.9%. Otton is on the streaming radar this week against a Falcons defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receptions to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Cousins has been slowly acclimating to his new surroundings, but the early returns haven’t been amazing. He is the QB30 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 25th in CPOE, and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. He is a must-sit this week against a strong Bucs’ pass defense. Tampa Bay has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points via passing. Quarterbacks have had a tough time facing a secondary that has allowed the fourth-lowest CPOE.

Rachaad White (RB)

White saw his role change in Week 4. Yes, maybe this was because of the food poisoning he was dealing with last weekend, but it also could be related to his relative ineffectiveness so far this season. Last week was the first time his snapshare has dropped below 70% this season (58%). White had 12 touches and 84 total yards. He had a near-even split with Bucky Irving on the rushing play snaps (54% vs. 50%) while he still dominated the passing down snaps (64%). White did lose the red zone battle with only a 40% snapshare (Irving, 67%). Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt, and he has the sixth-highest stuff rate. Atlanta hasn’t been an easy team to run on this year, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (White 68% zone).

Bucky Irving (RB)

Last week, Irving saw his role in the Bucs backfield increase. He played a season-high 42% of the snaps with 11 touches and 55 total yards. Irving had a 50% snap share on rushing plays and a 34% snap rate on passing downs, and he led the way for Tampa Bay with a 67% snapshare inside the 20-yard line. White was dealing with food poisoning last week, so maybe we can attribute this to that. It’s equally possible he is eating into the workload of one of the NFL’s most inefficient rushers. Irving has been explosive when he has gotten opportunities. Among 55 qualifying backs, he ranks seventh-best in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Irving has a tough task on early downs this week. Atlanta hasn’t been an easy team to run on this year, allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The lone sliver of hope for Irving is that Atlanta has also given up the second-highest success rate to gap runs (Irving 54% gap).

Drake London (WR)

London has been seeing a massive amount of volume as the clear WR1 for Atlanta. He has a 26.1% target share, a 37.1% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 37.8% first-read share as the WR31 in fantasy. He leads the Falcons with three end-zone targets. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, London’s volume and efficiency metrics have stayed stable near his overall output, while his first-read share has crept up to 38.6%. London will have to overcome a tough Week 5 matchup with volume. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. London will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two top 36 weekly finishes (WR18, WR36) this season. He has drawn a 19.3% target share with a 32.9% air-yard share, 1.97 YPRR, and a strong 24.3% first-read share. Tampa Bay has utilized single high on 55.7% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, his target share has dropped slightly to 17.6%, and his YPRR has cratered (0.94). Mooney is best left on the bench this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Mooney will run about 58% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (37.5% catch rate and 43.0 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (68% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating).

Jalen McMillan (WR)

McMillan has been ruled out for Week 5 (hamstring).

Kyle Pitts (TE)

Just as Pitts offered some hope last week with a season-high five targets and 59 receiving yards, he followed that game up with his worst outing of the season. Pitts only saw three targets last week and failed to secure any of them as he blanked the box score. Pitts has only managed a pitiful 10.9% target share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. That minuscule first-read share ranks fifth on the Atlanta depth chart. Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 15th in receptions per game allowed to the position. Sit Pitts this week.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*