Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Pace and playcalling notes
- Denver ranks 12th in neutral pace with the 13th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The Raiders have slowed their pace (13th-slowest) in close games while remaining pass happy (seventh-highest neutral passing rate).
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
| Gardner Minshew II | QB | QB2 |
| Zamir White | RB | Out |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | RB3 |
| Davante Adams | WR | Out |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR3/4 |
| Tre Tucker | WR | WR4/5 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | TE1 |
| Michael Mayer | TE | TE2 |
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB2 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB3 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB5 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR3 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | WR6 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | TE3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Williams is a solid volume-based flex this week. He has played at least 51% of the snaps weekly, averaging 13 touches and 52.3 total yards. Unfortunately, his tackle-breaking juice is seemingly gone. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. The Raiders have proven that they can’t stop anyone on the ground, though. They have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, yards after contact per attempt, and rushing yards per game.
Sutton was the only Denver receiving option to log at least an 80% route share in Week 4. Sutton is the WR47 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 25.4% target share, a 49% air-yard share, and a 32.6% first-read share with 1.57 YPRR. Sutton is tied with Diontae Johnson for the most red zone targets in the NFL. The Raiders have the ninth-highest two-high rate in the NFL (49.7%). Against two-high, Sutton has seen his numbers jump even higher with a 29.5% target share, a 67.3% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. Sutton will run about 81% of his routes against Jack Jones (66.7% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (40% catch rate and 55.1 passer rating).
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Minshew is an easy sit weekly. He is the QB31 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in yards per attempt and passer rating, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and 29th in fantasy points per dropback. Denver has stepped up their pass defense, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE.
I’d like to say NIx has been struggling, but struggling doesn’t effectively cover it. It has been tough football to watch weekly as the QB26 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 29th in passing yards per game, 35th in yards per attempt and passer rating, and 32nd in fantasy points per dropback. As bad as it has been, Nix could return decent QB2 numbers this week. The Raiders pass defense has been porous. They have allowed the ninth-highest passer rating, the second-highest CPOE, and the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied).
White has been ruled out for Week 5 (groin).
Mattison should be the Raiders’ workhorse this week with White out. Mattison has averaged 6.1 touches and 41.8 total yards this season as his snapshare has fluctuated from 22-60%. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. While he has 5.1 yards per carry this season, don’t let that fool you. His tackle-breaking ability hasn’t improved. He has been solid in a small sample in the passing game. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in YPRR. Denver is a middle-of-the-road matchup at best on the ground for Mattison. Denver has held running backs to the sixth-lowest rushing success rate and the 13th-lowest explosive run rate despite ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt.
Adams is not expected to play in Week 5, whether a trade occurs or not. His hamstring issue will keep him out again this week.
Last week, without Adams in the lineup, Meyers had a 41.7% target share, a 53% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 45% first-read share. How much does all of this volume matter in Week 5? Very little. Without Adams in the lineup again this week, Meyers will be shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who is a coffin nail for his fantasy value. Surtain has followed D.K. Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Garrett Wilson this season on 60-95% of their routes, and none of them eclipsed 30 receiving yards in his coverage. Sit Meyers this week.
Last week without Adams, Tucker had a 25% target share, an 18.4% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. He’s likely to see substantial volume again this week with Meyers locked up with Surtain. This means Tucker will match up with Riley Moss (64% catch rate and 92.9 passer rating) for most of the day. Denver is fifth in single-high rate (57.9%). Tucker’s numbers against single-high aren’t great, as he has logged a 13% TPRR and only 1.05 YPRR. Tucker does hold some deep PPR league flex appeal if you’re in a pinch.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Arizona ranks 16th and 17th in neutral pace and passing rate. At the same time, the 49ers have operated in their usual manner with the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Kyler Murray | QB | QB1/2 |
| James Conner | RB | RB1 |
| Trey Benson | RB | RB4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | WR1/2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR5 |
| Greg Dortch | WR | WR5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TBD |
49ers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Brock Purdy | QB | QB1 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | RB1 |
| Isaac Guerendo | RB | RB5 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | WR2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | WR2 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | WR5 |
| George Kittle | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Purdy is a strong play yet again this week. The QB14 in fantasy points per game has been excellent this season. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy ranks second in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, second in CPOE, and third in hero throw rate. Purdy should shred Arizona’s secondary that has given up the second-highest yards per attempt and the third-highest passer rating and CPOE. He should have plenty of time to do it against a pass rush that has generated the sixth-lowest pressure rate.
Aiyuk has disappointed so far this season as the WR67 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 19.7% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, and a 21.8% first-read share while producing 1.34 YPRR. I’m not worried about Aiyuk at all, though. His per-route metrics are still amazing, and better days are ahead. Among 111 wide receivers, he ranks fifth in separation and first in route win rate. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Aiyuk has only a 17.4% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. That first-read rate is second on the team, behind only Deebo Samuel. Working in Aiyuk’s favor is the fact that Arizona’s outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Last year, Aiyuk was the team’s go-to receiver against Cover 3 and Cover 4, with a team-leading 24.4% target share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Aiyuk will run about 84% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating). The big Aiyuk game could happen in Week 5.
Harrison Jr. is the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 25% target share, a 43.8% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Harrison Jr. leads the team with six end-zone targets. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Harrison has been a target hog with a 31.9% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 3.30 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. Harrison Jr. will run about 80% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (52.6% catch rate and 92.2 passer rating), Isaac Yiadom (71.4% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating), and Renardo Green (only one career target in his coverage).
If this isn’t the Aiyuk breakout game, then it’ll be another Samuel smash outing. Samuel is the WR17 in fantasy points per game, rocking along with a 25% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 27.3% first-read share. Samuel is tied for second on the team in red zone targets. He’s seen his usual rushing usage with four attempts per game and a rushing score. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Samuel has led the way this year with a 31.4% target share, a 36.6% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. The biggest question of this game is, “Does San Francisco lean on their year’s Cover 3 and Cover 4 beater or last year’s?” It is a coin flip. My gut tells me it is Aiyuk, as this is a wonderful opportunity to get him going, but it could easily be Samuel. Arizona’s outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Samuel will run about 52% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating).
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Murray’s Week 2 explosion is helping him immensely from an optics perspective. Without that game against one of the league’s worst secondaries, Murray has averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game, which would be good for QB24 this season. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 24th in passing yards per game, 12th in CPOE, and he has the 14th-highest off-target rate. Murray will have to work hard this week against a 49ers’ secondary that has held passers to the sixth-lowest CPOE, the 13th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the tenth-lowest EPA per dropback.
Wilson is the WR65 in fantasy this season with one game on his 2024 ledger with more than eighth PPR points. He has commanded an 18.5% target share, 22% air-yard share, and a 21.3% first-read share while producing 1.27 YPRR. He has one end-zone target this season. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Wilson has seen his target share slightly increase to 19.1%, but his YPRR fall to 0.80, and his first-read share fall slightly to 20%. This isn’t a week to consider flexing Wilson. The 49ers’ perimeter corners have held wide receivers to the fifth-lowest PPR points per target this season.
Sit Dortch this week. He hasn’t had more than eight PPR points in any game since Week 1. The 49ers have utilized single-high on 54.2% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Dortch has had a 12.8% target share, 0.43 YPRR, and a 17.1% first-read share. None of these metrics say, “Hey, flex me!”
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
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Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last week, Green Bay had the slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate with Jordan Love back.
- The Rams are eighth in neutral script pace and have the highest neutral passing rate in the NFL.
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jordan Love | QB | QB1 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | RB1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | RB5 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | WR1/2 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | Out |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR | WR2 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | TE1 |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | TE3 |
Rams Players & Weekly Rankings
| Matthew Stafford | QB | QB2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | WR5 |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | WR3/4 |
| Jordan Whittington | WR | WR3 |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Stafford is playing good football, especially when you factor in all of the injuries the Rams have endured this season. While he is the QB33 in fantasy points per game, it doesn’t really tell the entire story. He has only two passing touchdowns, which has capsized his fantasy output. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks eighth in passing yards per game, 14th in yards per attempt, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate. This could be an underrated spot to stream Stafford, especially if the Rams get down early. This game could easily turn into a shootout. Green Bay has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
Last week Wicks blew up after Christian Watson was sidelined with an injury. He finished as the WR3 in fantasy, drawing a 24.1% target share, a 40.3% air-yard share, and a 30.6% first-read share with 1.86 YPRR. He led the team with four end-zone targets. He was fantastic. In Week 5, he should destroy the Rams secondary. The Rams utilize single-high at the seventh-highest rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Wicks leads the team with a 33% TPRR and ranks second to only Jayden Reed with 2.70 YPRR. Last year, he logged a 22% TPRR and 2.10 YPRR against single-high. Wicks will run about 66% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (69.2% catch rate and 147.8 passer rating) and Cobie Durant (56.3% catch rate and 70.3 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
In the two games Jordan Love has played, Reed has finished as the WR1 and the WR2 in weekly fantasy scoring. In those games, Reed has had a 15.7% target share, a 22.7% air-yard share, 4.07 YPRR, and an 18.3% first-read share. The Rams utilize single-high at the seventh-highest rate (57.9%). Against single-high in those two games, Reed has seen his YPRR jump to an eye-popping 5.56 while his air-yard share has also increased to 38.3%. Reed is fourth on the team in red zone targets with two (tied). Reed will run about 84% of his routes against Quentin Lake (66.7% catch rate and 104.3 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers this season.
Last week, in his first full starting opportunity, Whittington had a 27.6% target share, a 29% air-yard share, 2.21 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share (third on the team). He had one end-zone target. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Whittington ranks first on the team with a 30% TPRR and second with 2.24 YPRR. Whittington could lead the team in targets in Week 5 as Stafford’s WR1. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, Atwell was third on the team with a 17.2% target share while leading the way with a 36.7% air-yard share, 3.28 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Atwell has drawn one red zone target this season. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, he ranks second on the team with a 24% TPRR and leads the team with 4.16 YPRR and a 31% first-read share. Atwell should be the WR1B in the Rams’ offense this week. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Last week, with Love back, Kraft had an 84% route share, a 13% target share, 1.13 YPRR, 53 receiving yards, and an 11.1% first-read share. Overall, this season, Kraft is the TE12 in fantasy points per game. Kraft is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with four. Kraft is a low-end TE1 this week against a Rams pass defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Parkinson is a match-up-based streamer when the match-up is right. It’s right this week. Green Bay has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Parkinson is the TE21 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 13.7% target share with 0.97 YPRR and a 14.1% first-read share. He’s second on the team with four red zone targets.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, Robinson was fourth on the team, with a 10.3% target share, only 1.48 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. Green Bay has the 11th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (56.2%). Since Week 2, against single-high, Robinson is sixth on the team with a 12% TPRR, fourth in YPRR (1.40), and fifth in first-read share (10.3%). Sit Robinson this week. Atwell and Whittington should lead the passing attack this week.
Doubs has been ruled out and suspended for Week 5.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pace and playcalling notes
- Seattle continues to blaze a trail ranking fourth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
- New York is 19th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
| Daniel Jones | QB | QB2 |
| Devin Singletary | RB | Doubtful |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | RB2/3 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | Out |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | WR | WR3/4 |
| Darius Slayton | WR | WR5 |
| Theo Johnson | TE | TE3 |
Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings
| Geno Smith | QB | QB1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | RB1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | RB3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | WR1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR2 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | WR3/4 |
| Noah Fant | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Chef Geno is BACK! Smith is the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 16th in yards per attempt, second in passing yards per game, fourth in CPOE, 13th in hero throw rate, and eighth in catchable target rate. Smith should have no issues posting another QB1 week against the Giants. New York has allowed the 13th-highest EPA per dropback, the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest CPOE.
Smith-Njigba has seen his target volume level out after Week 4. He has a 20.8% target share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share as Seattle’s WR2 and the WR33 in fantasy. Smith-Njigba is second on the team in deep targets and has seen one red zone target. New York has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59%). Against single-high, Smith-Njigba has seen his first-read share increase to 25% while the rest of his metrics mirror his overall numbers. The Giants have been relatively untested against slot receivers facing the third-fewest slot targets in the NFL. He will run about 87% of his routes against Cor’Dale Flott, who has been a turnstile, allowing an 81.3% catch rate and 128.4 passer rating. Smith-Njigba should be busy again this week.
Fant is the TE22 in fantasy points per game. He has been a distant fourth-wheel in the Seattle passing attack with a 9.4% target share, 1.05 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. He has one red zone target this season. Fant is a low-end tight-end streamer this week against a Giants’ pass defense that has allowed the ninth-most receptions and the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Jones is an easy sit this week. He’s been serviceable this season but not outstanding as the QB21 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 29th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback. Seattle got ripped apart by Jared Goff, but they have still allowed the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, the ninth-fewest passing yards per game, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points to passing.
Singletary is dealing with a groin issue and has been listed as doubtful. Tracy looks like the favorite for the backfield work for New York this week. Tracy has been a part-time player for the Giants this season so far, playing only 21-31% of the snaps weekly. With his 12 carries, the results haven’t been pretty, with 2.4 yards per carry, zero missed tackles forced, and only 1.50 yards after contact per attempt. He’s performed a tad bit better in the passing game, but still, it’s nothing to write home about with his 1.21 YPRR and 18% TPRR. Tracy will be the lead back with the stranglehold on passing down work. He’s an RB/flex play that is volume-based. The matchup isn’t great, and his per-touch metrics this season don’t offer hope that Tracy will be efficient with his touches. There is a small ray of hope for Tracy, though. Seattle has held rushers to the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, but they have also yielded the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs, and the sixth-highest success rate to gap runs (Tracy 58.3% gap). If the Giants and Tracy can take advantage of Seattle’s gap run defense issues, then he might outperform my modest expectations for Week 5.
Singletary is dealing with a groin issue and has been listed as doubtful.
With Malik Nabers out, Robinson should operate as the Giants WR1 this week. Robinson is the WR28 in fantasy points per game with three WR3 or better outings this season (WR31, WR35, WR17). Robinson has been a volume magnet with a 25.5% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 26.5% first-read share. Robinson leads the Giants in red zone targets and is tied for the second-most red zone targets in the NFL. Seattle has the ninth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (57.0%). Against single-high, his target share and YPRR have increased to 27.1% and 1.95. Robinson has a tough slot matchup this week as Seattle has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Robinson will run about 80% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72.2% catch rate and 90.3 passer rating).
Lockett has become the definitive WR3 for Seattle. He has a 15.1% target share, an 18.3% air-yard share, 1.54 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. New York has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (59%). Against single-high, his numbers have fallen with a 12.7% target share, 1.16 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. Sit Lockett this week.
TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC
