The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

• BUF -1, O/U 47
• Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Houston is slowly picking up the pace and passing more. They are up to 13th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
• Buffalo has the fifth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 18th in neutral passing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• C.J. Stroud
• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Nico Collins
• Dalton Kincaid

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Cam Akers (RB)

Akers has been Houston’s starting back for the last two weeks, playing 40-43% of the snaps while averaging 11.5 touches and 41 total yards. He’ll be the Texans’ starting tailback again this week in a wonderful matchup for Houston to bump up his rushing usage. Over the last two games, Akers has played 69.7% of the snaps on rushing plays, but sadly, only 27.3% of the snaps in the red zone (Dare Ogunbowale 59.1%). We’ll see if Akers’ red zone usage bumps up this week or if Ogunbowale continues to steal high-leverage snaps. Akers has been surprisingly efficient with his rushing work this season. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth with a whopping 29% missed tackle rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.24). We’ve seen Houston lean heavily into their run game when the matchup presents itself. Well, that’s the case here against the Bills. The Bills have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.

Curtis Samuel (WR)

Samuel will assume the starting slot receiver role this week, with Khalil Shakir sidelined. Samuel has a 24% TPRR, 1.26 YPRR, and a 14% first-read share in limited action this season. Houston has the eighth-highest rate of single-high this season (57.6%). Against single-high, Samuel’s TPRR and YPRR have increased to 27% and 1.73. Don’t be surprised if Samuel leads the team in targets this week. Houston has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Joe Mixon (RB)

Mixon has been ruled out for Week 5.

Dameon Pierce (RB)

Pierce has been listed as questionable, but he’s closer to doubtful. He didn’t practice this week until Friday when he only managed a limited session. I expect him to miss Week 5.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Diggs might not be in his prime anymore, but he still has been good this season as the WR11 in fantasy points per game. Diggs has a 21.1% target share, 1.64 YPRR (6.9 aDOT), and a 25.5% first-read share. He’s second on the team in red zone targets. His old team, the Bills, have the third-highest two-high rate in the NFL (60.3%). Against two high, Diggs has seen his target share fall to 19.4% and his YPRR slip to 1.42. Passing attacks have been shying away from testing Buffalo’s outside corners as the Bills have faced the second-most slot targets and allowed the fourth-most receptions to slot receivers. Buffalo hasn’t allowed slot receivers to do much with the volume, though, as they are 16th in receiving yards allowed to slots. Buffalo has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Diggs could see a lot of volume this week, but it’s questionable what he’s able to produce with it.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman saw his route share increase last week to 67.6% as he had a 12.9% target share, a 26.6% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. Houston has the fourth-highest single-high rate (66.1%). Against single-high, Coleman is fifth on the Bills in TPRR (15%), second in YPRR (2.02), and third in first-read share (15%). Coleman will run about 96% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (60% catch rate and 53.8 passer rating) and Kamari Lassiter (41.2% catch rate and 42.0 passer rating). Houston has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to perimeter receivers, but they haven’t allowed them to do much with the volume, with the eighth-lowest PPR points per target given up.

Tank Dell (WR)

Dell will be back this week. He has been listed with no injury designation. He has only a 14.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.01 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share. Dell has one end-zone target and two red-zone looks this season. Buffalo has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Dell this week.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Shakir has been ruled out.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Schultz has only had a 10.5% target share and a 10.2% first-read share. He has only one red zone target and hasn’t had more than 34 receiving yards in any game this season. I don’t see that changing this week. Buffalo has faced the fourth-most tight end targets, but they have held the position to the 11th-most receptions and the ninth-lowest yards per reception.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -3, O/U 43.5
• Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Cleveland ranks 14th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
• The Commanders have the second-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jayden Daniels

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Deshaun Watson (QB)

Watson is a struggling NFL quarterback who has been helped greatly by his rushing for fantasy purposes. Watson ranks top-ten among quarterbacks in carries per game (eight) and rushing yards per game (ninth). That has helped him to QB19 status in fantasy points per game because his work as a passer has been bottom of the barrel. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 31st in passer rating, 20th in CPOE, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. He has a smash matchup against Washington, but that has been the case numerous times this season only for Watson to underwhelm. Washington has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns and fantasy points via passing, and the highest passer rating to quarterbacks. Watson will likely return decent but not amazing QB2 numbers in Week 5.

Jerome Ford (RB)

Ford has been the Browns’ clear workhorse in three of four games this season, with at least a 75% snap rate. In those three games, Ford has averaged 16 touches and 74.6 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Ford ranks 20th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. He could be the engine for the Browns offense in Week 5. Washington has not only been terrible at defending passing games. They can’t stop the run. The Commanders have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while giving up the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. has been a wonderful RB2 this season. As the RB17 in fantasy points per game, he has averaged 18.5 touches and 93.8 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He hasn’t flashed a massive passing game ceiling, but he does have at least three targets in three of his four games. Robinson Jr. should return RB2 production in Week 5 against a Browns run defense that has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-most rushing yards per game. Robinson Jr. has been listed as a game-time decision after dealing with a knee issue this week. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before sneaking in a limited session on Friday. I’d consider him closer to doubtful, so prepare a backup option for Week 5.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is the WR31 in fantasy points per game, demanding a 25.5% target share, a 54% air-yard share, and a 31.6% first-read share while producing 1.74 YPRR. Cleveland has the highest single-high rate in the NFL (74.3%). Among 78 qualifying receivers, McLaurin ranks 40th in TPRR and 39th in route win rate against single-high. Cleveland has allowed the 12th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but McLaurin could quietly be headed toward a solid Week 5. Kliff Kingsbury keeps McLaurin planted as the left wide receiver in formations, which will work in his favor this week. McLaurin will run about 77% of his routes against Martin Emerson Jr.(65% catch rate and 120.4 passer rating), who has been the weak link in Cleveland’s pass defense.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jeudy has been a WR3 in weekly fantasy scoring in three of his four games this season (WR33, WR27, WR31). He has a 19.6% target share, a 33.2% air-yard share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 21.7% first-read share. Jeudy is tied for the team lead with three red zone targets. The Cleveland passing volume should lean towards Jeudy this week against Washington’s two high coverage scheme (fifth-highest rate, 60.6%). Against two high, Jeudy has seen his YPRR increase to 1.55 and his first-read share bump to 23.3%. Washington has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Jeudy could finally register his first WR2 fantasy scoring week in Week 5.

David Njoku (TE)

Njoku might be back this week. He has been listed as questionable after limited practice sessions on Wednesday and Friday. Njoku left Week 1 due to injury after essentially only playing two quarters. In this limited sample, he drew a 26.7% target share with a 33.3% first-read share. If Njoku is back, I have to wonder what his route share will look like. I lean that they probably hold him out this week, considering he isn’t even healthy enough to practice every day this week and hasn’t logged any full practices yet, but you never know, and this Browns team is sitting with only one win, and possibly staring at another loss this week. Washington has been a terrible pass defense this season, but they have been relatively untested against tight ends. They have faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL (tied), but they have also allowed the seventh-lowest yards per reception to the position. It’s such a small sample that I don’t know how many conclusions we can draw from that, though. Considering the state of the tight end position, if Njoku plays (even in a limited role), he could be your best option for Week 5.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

Ekeler has cleared the concussion protocol. He could be the Commanders’ starting running back in Week 5 if Robinson Jr. can’t go. If Robinson Jr. is out, Ekeler could be a bell-cow, only coming off the field for a breather here and there with Jeremy McNichols filling in. Ekeler has been serviceable on early downs with a 15% missed tackle rate and 2.23 yards after contact per attempt. While his rushing prowess has been passable, his receiving ability remains top-shelf. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks second in YPRR, third in receiving yards per game, and tenth in TPRR. If Robinson Jr. is out, Ekeler is a volume-based RB2. If Robinson Jr. plays, Ekeler is an RB3. Cleveland has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 14th-most rushing yards per game. They have shut down receiving backs, giving up the 13th-lowest yards per reception and the fifth-fewest receptions.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper is the WR46 in fantasy points per game, and much of that was scored against the Giants in Week 3. Outside of his eruption game against New York, Cooper hasn’t surpassed eight PPR points in any week. Cooper continues to soak up the volume, though, with a 25% target share, a 46.8% air-yard share, and a 30.2% first-read share despite producing just 0.92 YPRR and 37 receiving yards per game. Cooper is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with three. The Commanders have the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.6%). Against two high, Cooper’s target share and first-read shares have dipped to 15.4% and 16.3%. Washington has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but it is questionable if Cooper will take advantage in Week 5.

Noah Brown (WR)

Brown has been ruled out for Week 5 (groin).

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 15.1% target share and a 14.5% first-read share while producing 1.55 YPRR and 37.5 receiving yards per game. Ertz’s volume has been a bit hollow as he has yet to draw a deep target or a target inside the red zone. This is a week to consider other streaming options at tight end. Cleveland has given up the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -3, O/U 45.5
• Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Indy has been blazing a trail, ranking second in neutral pace while also having the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Jacksonville ranks fourth and sixth in neutral pace and passing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Flacco (QB)

Last week, in relief of Richardson, he tossed for 168 yards and two scores. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in passer rating, 23rd in CPOE, second in aDOT, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. Flacco is a strong streamer this week. He had no issues with pushing the ball downfield with the huge aDOT. This week the matchup is right for Flacco to step in and fill up a boxscore. Jacksonville can’t stop anyone through the air, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the tenth-highest CPOE, and the second-most passing yards per game. They have also struggled to defend deep passing, and we know Flacco has no issues with chucking it deep. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-highest passer rating, the sixth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence has been objectively bad to begin the season as the QB26 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t eclipsed 15 fantasy points in any game yet this season. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, 34th in CPOE, and 31st in catchable target rate. If there were ever a week for Lawrence to right the ship, it would be Week 5 against Indy. The Colts have been the special sauce for passers. They have allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and passer rating, the sixth-most passing yards per game, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing. Lawrence should post his best boxscore of the season this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne picked up a shoulder issue last week and has opened this week with a limited practice. Last week he played a season-low 52% of snaps 12 touches and 60 total yards. It has been a tough season for Etienne so far as the RB29 in fantasy points per game. He hasn’t rushed for more than 68 yards nor eclipsed 90 total yards in any week. He is 17th in opportunity share and 23rd in weighted opportunities. Some of this has been out of his hands as the team hasn’t leaned on him in the rushing department. He hasn’t received more than 13 carries in any game. On a per-touch basis, among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. This could be the bounceback game for Etienne. Indy has improved as a run defense as the season has moved along, but they still have some holes to their game. Indy is 15th in stuff rate, has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, and has given up the 10th-highest yards before contact per attempt. They have also struggled to defend gap runs giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry and the 12th-highest success rate (Etienne 61% gap). Last week Najee Harris struggled to get going, but he is running behind a line that has the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. That’s not the case for Etienne who will operate behind a line that has the 10th-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Etienne should post his best rushing day of the 2024 season in Week 5.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Bigsby qualifies as a deep league flex play this week. He has played 29-32% of the snaps in two games this season, averaging 10.5 rushing attempts and 82.5 rushing yards. In those two games, he has only managed a 21.4% snap rate inside the red zone, so if he scores, it will likely have to be on a long run. Among 53 qualifying backs, Bigsby ranks first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. Indy is 15th in stuff rate, has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game, and has given up the 10th-highest yards before contact per attempt. They have also struggled to defend gap runs, giving up the 13th-highest yards per carry and the 12th-highest success rate (Bigsby 66.7% gap).

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman has limped out the gate as the WR55 in fantasy points per game. Richardson has been a big part of the problem, but Pittman has still seen a 28.2% target share, a 27.8% air-yard share, and a 31.9% first-read share with 2.12 YPRR. Pittman leads the team with three red zone targets, and he’s gotten involved in the deep passing game (four targets, third on the team). Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped their defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Josh Downs‘ return, Pittman ranks first in target share (23.8%, tied with Downs), first in YPRR (2.47), and second in first-read share (26.7%) against two-high. Pittman will run about 78% of his routes against Ronald Darby (79.2% catch rate and 132.1 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (63% catch rate and 90.2 passer rating). Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Josh Downs (WR)

Since his return to the lineup, Downs is tied with Pittman for the team lead in target share (28%) while posting 2.67 YPRR and a 37.8% first-read share (first on the team). Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped their defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Downs has tied Pittman in target share (23.8%), ranked second in YPRR (1.94), and led the team in first-read share (33.3%). Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Downs will run about 95% of his routes against Jarrian Jones (78.6% catch rate and 111.6 passer rating).

Christian Kirk (WR)

In Week 3, Dougie P woke up and realized that Kirk should be featured more in the game plan. Since that time, he has had a 27.8% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a team-leading 36.4% first-read share. Kirk is tied for second on the team in red zone targets (two) and tied for the team lead with six deep targets. Indy has the 12th-highest single-high rate (56.2%). Over the last two weeks, Kirk is second on the team with a 28.6% target share, has 1.71 YPRR, and leads the team with a 33.3% first-read share against single-high. Indy has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the 13th-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Kirk will run about 84% of his routes against Chris Lammons (83.3% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating).

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

Thomas Jr. has hit the ground running in his rookie season as the WR20 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, after Kirk’s reintegration into this passing attack, Thomas Jr. has had a 22.8% target share, a 28% air-yard share, 2.06 YPRR, and a 27.2% first-read share. Indy has the 12th-highest single-high rate (56.2%). Over the last two weeks against single-high, Thomas Jr. has led the team with a 28.6% target share, a 32.8% air-yard share, 3.18 YPRR, and ranked second with a 30.3% first-read share. Thomas Jr. will run about 78% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (64% catch rate and 60.6 passer rating) and Samuel Womack lll (66.7% catch rate and 122.2 passer rating). Indy has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Since Week 2, Strange has been the starting tight end for Jacksonville in relief of Evan Engram. During those three games, he has had a 13.8% target share, 1.37 YPRR, and a 14.1% first-read share as the TE15 in fantasy points per game. He has tied for the team lead with three end-zone targets. Strange should flirt with TE1 upside this week in a great matchup. Indy has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Richardson has been limited in practice all week. He has been downgraded to doubtful. Joe Flacco has been working with the first team all week. Richardson will eventually be ruled out. This hasn’t been the start to the season many (including myself) had hoped for Richardson. He’s the QB24 in fantasy points per game. Among 37 qualifying passers, he is fourth in yards per attempt and second in hero throw rate, but he also has the second-lowest passer rating and CPOE and the highest off-target rate. Indy hasn’t done a great job of giving him layup throws as well as he has the second-highest aDOT. Richardson will work through growing pains the rest of the season. That should have always been expected. The peaks and valleys will be real for the rest of the year. The stabilizing force for his fantasy production is his rushing, which we need to see a little more of. He still ranks top-ten among quarterbacks in carries per game (tenth), red zone carries per game (fifth), and rushing yards per game (eighth). If Richardson is able to play this week, this could be a get-right game. Jacksonville can’t stop anyone through the air, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, the tenth-highest CPOE, and the second-most passing yards per game. They have also struggled to defend deep passing, which has been Richardson’s bread and butter. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-highest passer rating, the sixth-most passing yards, and the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing.

Trey Sermon (RB)

Sermon will take over as the early down complement of an Indy backfield committee this week. Tyler Goodson will work in with Sermon. With his nine carries this season, Sermon has posted a strong 22% missed tackle rate, but his 1.67 yards after contact per attempt isn’t great. Last year, with a somewhat larger sample (35 carries), Sermon posted a decent 5.7% explosive run rate and 2.69 yards after contact per attempt. Among 80 qualifying backs last year, he ranked 13th and 36th in those statistical categories. Sermon is a touchdown-dependent RB3 this week with a terrible rushing matchup. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce has fallen off since the return of Josh Downs, with only an 8% target share, a 23.3% air-yard share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 10.8% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Jacksonville has flipped its defensive approach with the fifth-highest two-high rate (55.6%). Since Week 3, against two-high, Pierce has been a ghost with a 4.8% target share and a 6.7% first-read share. Sit Pierce this week.

Gabe Davis (WR)

Over the last two games, Jacksonville’s passing attack has been extremely consolidated, leaving Davis on the outside looking in. He has had only a 13.9% target share, a 19.4% air-yard share, 0.25 YPRR, and a 12.7% first-read share. He has averaged only eight receiving yards per game. At this juncture, Davis is droppable.

Evan Engram (TE)

Engram is not expected to return this week.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

• MIA -0.5, O/U 35.5
• Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New England has the fourth-slowest neutral pace while leading the NFL in neutral rushing rate.
• Without Tua Tagovailoa, Miami has the second-fastest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyler Huntley (QB)

Last week, Huntley was the QB19 in weekly fantasy scoring. That can be traced to his eight rushing attempts, 40 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown because his passing was abysmal. Huntley finished with 96 passing yards and 4.3 yards per attempt. He had only an 8.0 aDOT but somehow had 22.7% of his throws off-target. I have a faint sliver of hope that this week will be better for Huntley. The matchup through the air is much better. New England has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, the highest CPOE, and the 13th-most fantasy points via passing. I don’t want to say he’s a “strong start,” necessarily, but I’m hopeful he should return solid QB2 numbers with more life through the air.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

If Hill is getting shadow treatment from Gonzalez this week, Waddle could lead the way through the air for Miami. Last week with Huntley, Waddle had a 27.3% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two high (52.3%). Against two high, Waddle ranks third on the team in TPRR (20%), first in YPRR (2.40), and second in first-read share (18.6%). With Gonzalez stuck to Hill, Waddle will tangle with Jonathan Jones (66.7% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (career: 69.6% catch rate and 115.7 passer rating) for most of the day. New England has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 5 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Things have gone about as bad as they possibly can for Brissett as the QB35 in fantasy points per game. The offensive scheme has been disjointed. The offensive line is leaky. The team has forced players that should not be on the field into prominent roles. It has been disastrous for the solid veteran. Sadly, I don’t think it gets any better this week. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Brissett ranks 33rd in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, 29th in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Brissett is droppable in all formats. Even in Superflex, I’m willing to toss a skill position player into the quarterback spot over playing Brissett.

De’Von Achane (RB)

It has been a tough road for Achane without Tua Tagovailoa. Over the last two weeks, he has played at least 73% of the snaps in each game while averaging 13.5 touches and 45.5 total yards. He has had RB33 and RB45 weekly finishes in PPR scoring. Achane also hasn’t been breaking tackles anywhere close to how he was last year. Among 53 qualifying backs, Achane has ranked 27th in explosive run rate, 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 47th in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line hasn’t done him any favors, with the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Achane has another tough matchup this week. New England might be a dumpster fire in many respects, but their run defense has been good. They have held rushers to the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest rushing yards per game, and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson is the RB26 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.6 touches and 75 total yards. He has languished over the last two weeks in poor game scripts in blowouts. He is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which ranks fifth-lowest in yards before contact per attempt. The things that Stevenson can control ie. breaking tackles, he has done extremely well. Among 53 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Every week is just an uphill battle for him. This, unfortunately, is the case for Stevenson again this week. Miami has allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-lowest rushing success rate, and has the fourth-best stuff rate. Stevenson gets bumped down a peg this week as the team announced he will not be starting in Week 5 as punishment for his fumbling issues (four fumbles this season). We’ll see how long the team will sideline arguably their best offensive player this week. This feels like an overreaction for a player who has only seven fumbles across his three previous NFL seasons. Stevenson is an RB3 this week.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Last week, with Huntley under center, Hill had a 31.8% target share, a 76.2% air-yard share, 1.28 YPRR, and a 38.9% first-read share. Hill remained the number one option in this passing attack and the downfield option with an 18.3 aDOT. Hill likely sees shadow coverage this week from Christian Gonzalez (60% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating), who has followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Brandon Aiyuk on 54-90% of their routes. Only Metcalf surpassed 33 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Hill is fourth on the team in red zone targets with two. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two high (52.3%). Against two high, Hill leads the team with a 26% TPRR and a 25.4% first-read share while ranking second in YPRR with 2.11.

Ja’Lynn Polk (WR)

Last week, New England finally decided to install Polk as a full-time receiver in the offense with an 82% route share, a 21.9% target share, a 62.2% air-yard share, and a 28% first-read share. This almost feels like a trap as New England has been rotating without any semblance of reasoning the focal point of the passing attack weekly. One week it is Hunter Henry, then DeMario Douglas, and now Polk. I’m sure there’s no way the rug gets pulled out from under us in Week 5 (it probably does…). At this point, there’s no way I have any confidence in starting anyone from the New England passing attack unless we possibly see them featured in multiple weeks. This offense is a mess. Polk is worth picking up where you can and stash him, though.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Only Polk, Douglas, and Hunter Henry had route shares above 64% last week. Against a slot funnel defense, Douglas saw only a 9.4% target share, 4.9% air-yard share, and a 12% first-read share. Little of what New England is doing on offense makes sense right now. Again, I’m not trusting anyone in this offense in fantasy in my lineups outside of Rhamondre Stevenson. It has been a roulette wheel weekly with who has been featured that lacks any discernible reasoning. Hold Douglas on the end of your bench as he has proven that when the team decides to feature him, he is immensely talented, but until the usage of players in this offense levels out, there’s no way to feel good about starting them.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Henry leads the team in route share (74.1%), target share (17.4%), receiving yards per game (37), YPRR (1.48) and ranks third in first-read share (13.7%). Outside of his massive Week 2 performance, Henry hasn’t surpassed 18 receiving yards in any game this season. Henry is a must-sit this week. The matchup is brutal. Miami has held tight ends to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game.

TB vs. ATL | NYJ vs. MIN | BAL vs. CIN | CAR vs. CHI | BUF vs. HOU | CLE vs. WAS | IND vs. JAC | MIA vs. NE | LV vs. DEN | ARI vs. SF | GB vs. LAR | NYG vs. SEA | DAL vs. PIT | NO vs. KC