The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
No byes this week, so it is a 13-game slate (14 on FanDuel) this week.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 8 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) vs. CAR | $5,600 (DraftKings)
Through the first seven weeks, Bo Nix is the current QB15 in total fantasy points, and the QB13 in fantasy points per game since week five. In his last three games, Nix has finished as QB8, QB9, and QB18 respectively, averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he is the QB4 in rushing yards. His legs have added value during his arm and processing development. Interesting…that sounds like a couple of rock-solid fantasy QB’s from just a few years ago that folks may have heard of, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
This week, Nix and the Broncos draw a matchup against Carolina Panthers who have struggled on both sides of the ball to a near-historic degree. The Panthers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and the most production to runners. Nix can operate with his legs and though the team may rely on a combination of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin to finish them off, Nix will get his.
For GPP or tournament plays, Nix represents the high-upside/low-cost play that could topple a few contests.
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL) vs. TB | $7,100 (FanDuel)
Cousins played one awful quarter of football last weekend. His trio of turnovers occurred sequentially to open the second half, putting the team in a position to face an awkward loss. However, this type of roller coaster of production is not uncommon for the veteran signal-caller. On the season, Cousins is QB21 in fantasy points per game. However, he has finished as a QB2 or better in five of seven games, and a QB8 or better in two of those. He finished as the overall QB1 back in week five against, yep…you guessed it, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In that game, he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns.
While egregious to expect him to put up an identical stat line, the matchup is still very, very good. The Bucs allow the third-most fantasy points to the position, including 1.6 passing touchdowns per contest. This game features a 45.5 over/under and should operate as a get-right matchup for Cousins. He is usable in both formats and can be both game-stacked and team-stacked.
Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) vs. NO | $6,900 (DraftKings)
It would be difficult to not be into Dobbins for this contest. The new-look Chargers are focused on a run-heavy approach and Dobbins is reminiscent of the rookie that we thought we were getting from 2020 when he rushed for nine touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, he has three already. He is averaging 15.8 rushes, 2.6 targets for 92.4 total yards per game and remains a threat to score.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been gashed on the ground this season. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and have surrendered 80-plus rushing yards or a score (sometimes two if they’re feeling generous) five times through seven weeks.
It certainly isn’t the highest over/under on the slate, but the Chargers are not walking out of this one without an offensive touchdown and Dobbins remains the most likely candidate to strut through the chalk.
Dobbins is a volume play that has multiple touchdown upside in a matchup that could end up higher than the projected total. He is best used in GPP contests but can be utilized in cash games sparingly.
James Conner (RB – ARI) vs. MIA | $8,300 (FanDuel)
A healthy James Conner is a work-horse running back. He averages 17.6 touches for 91.9 total yards per contest and is currently the RB21 in fantasy points per game. He has been one of the more reliable pieces of the Cardinals offense. He has three top-twelve positional finishes this season, including two inside the top ten. He also has the seventh-most rush attempts among his peers.
It just so happens that their opponent this week, though stiff against wide receivers, is far more generous to running backs. The Dolphins allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, including a robust 1.5 rushing touchdowns on a per-game basis.
In a game where the susceptibility is at the running back position, the only threat to Conner’s performance is Kyler Murray. Conner is 13th overall in opportunity share among running backs and facing a team that struggles to defend that facet of an offense. Pencilling him in for a touchdown is well within the range of outcomes, and having more than one would mark the third occurrence of that season.
Conner is playable in both cash and GPP contests this week. His floor is the salary and his ceiling is a top-six running back this week, where my projections currently have him.
Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE) vs. BAL | $4,800 (DraftKings)
If a humble DFS writer is being honest, he would say that this is a desperation play. That assessment would be correct but also the kind of one-off player that has won Milly Makers in the past. So, let’s dive down this long-shot rabbit hole to crazy town and see where we end up. The fact is, it is the ones who are not afraid to get a little gross on the GPP market that sometimes come down with the big pots.
Has Jeudy done anything other than underperform based on his draft stock? No, unfortunately. Does anyone expect me to wow them with statistical insights as to why he’s a good play on this slate? Probably not. His best finish this season is as WR27, in WR2 territory. However, that was with Deshaun Watson who has not thrown for 200-plus yards at any point this season. Watson is no longer the problem. Jameis Winston is slated to make the start and during his career, he has been known to be somewhat of a gunslinger. Jeudy should operate as the top target for that receiving core.
The Ravens allow the most fantasy points to the position. Over their last three games, they surrendered seven receiving touchdowns.
Jeudy is best utilized in multiple-entry GPP contests.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) vs. ARI | $7,600 (FanDuel)
While this weekly breakdown typically features below-the-radar names, Tyreek Hill qualifies as a chalky value for this slate. This is a bounce-back opportunity that DFS players have daydreamed over. His lull in production was directly tied to the absence of Tua Tagovailoa. In his best game, Tua fed Hill all the way to a WR4 finish in week one. Hill has not declined as a dynamic and explosive receiver, the quarterback play just failed at the accuracy and anticipation that is required to unlock him.
At the time of this writing, Tua is fully expected to be back under center for this contest. Meanwhile, the Cardinals allow the seventh-best fantasy production to wideouts. To date, the Cardinals have only allowed one receiver to clear the 100-yard mark. It would be less than shocking if Hill was close to eclipsing that by halftime.
The return of Tua and a good matchup make Hill a chalky play, so best used in cash. That being said, this is probably the cheapest that he will be for the remainder of the season, assuming Tua can avoid further injuries.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton (TE – TB) vs. ATL | $3,500 (DraftKings)
The unfortunate injuries to both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin resulted in Otton seeing a season-high 10 targets last week. While 10-plus targets a week may not be sustainable, Otton was already flirting with lower-range tight end one production. Over their last five games, he has finished as TE8 or better three times.
The Falcons are a middle-of-the-road matchup against the position. In their last meeting, Otton went three for 44 on four targets. Expect that target number to be higher this time around.
Otton’s potential target share outweighs his meagre salary enough that he can be used in both cash and GPP contests this week. He is low-end, volume-based, TE1 this week.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) vs. JAC | $5,900 (FanDuel)
Basically speaking, Brock Bowers is the best play on the board by usage and matchup. However, his $7,400 salary can be complicated to work into lineups. For those looking for production versus cost, Tucker Kraft is certainly a TE to consider for this slate. He has scored four touchdowns over his last four games. He is the overall TE7 in fantasy points per game. Over the last few weeks, his production has only been surpassed by George Kittle and Brock Bowers. (The TE1 and TE2 in salary requirements) Kraft’s cost versus production has not quite caught up yet. Until it does, he should remain in lineups in favorable matchups.
The Jaguars defense has been friendly to opposing tight ends. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Jordan Love likes to spread the ball around between the twenties, but once inside the red zone, Kraft has an edge on targets. Kraft is the TE2 in fantasy points inside the red zone. The matchup is good versus the salary and his usage makes it even more attractive. Kraft is usable in both formats for this slate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
