The current week of DFS is always my favourite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
With a few more teams on bye, it is another 10-game slate on DraftKings and 11 on FanDuel.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 7 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton (QB – CAR) vs. WAS | $5,200 (DraftKings)
The Red Rifle rides once more in the world of fantasy football. Albeit, only in the right matchups, and this one qualifies. Dalton is not a slate-breaker or an elite talent, but he is serviceable for fantasy purposes at times and can elevate some of the skill position players. Since assuming the starting mantle, he has had two QB1 finishes, including a QB8 finish against the Raiders in week three. Overall, he is the QB23 in fantasy points per game, again, since taking over as the starter.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are less than frugal against quarterbacks, surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game. Chuba Hubbard has played above his skill level, keeping the pass game honest. They are allowing the second-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
While Dalton’s salary looks good, he is better utilized in GPP contests over cash games. For those who do not mind the pay-up mentality at the position, Jayden Daniels ($7,600) represents both a high-floor and high-ceiling, however it comes at not only the salary but the ownership for this slate.
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) vs. LV | $7,100 (FanDuel)
Amidst the injuries to his top two wide receivers, Stafford has not put up the fantasy points that typically inspire DFS players. He is currently averaging 11.4 FD points per game. However, some of that can be misleading regarding future production. Over his career, Stafford averages 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. This season, he only has three through five weeks played. Regression is coming and could come as soon as this week, especially if Cooper Kupp returns to action.
The matchup is enticing. The Raiders allow the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.
Stafford fits better into GPP contests and slotting him is partially based on the availability of Kupp. Assuming Kupp is a go, Stafford could easily outperform his salary on this slate.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. BUF | $6,300 (DraftKings)
As the weeks go by, Tony Pollard is starting to look more and more like the dynamic back we remember from his days as a Cowboy. The burst and shifty cuts paired with his prowess as a receiver make him the kind of back that is coveted in full PPR scoring formats. Pollard is the RB18 in fantasy points per game and has not been utilized properly as a receiver, given his ability. Thus far, he is averaging just over 84 scrimmage yards per contest, a number which could be higher this week.
The Bills allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Tyjae Spears has already been ruled out and the Titans could be facing a negative game script. With Pollard’s ability as a short-yardage target, the game script favours his usage in this matchup.
Pollard has the role and the right matchup to outperform his middling salary this week. He is usable in both cash and GPP contests.
Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS) vs. CAR |$6,600| $6,900 (FanDuel)
As of the time of this writing, Brian Robinson Jr. is still listed as questionable for a juicy matchup against a barely relevant Carolina Panthers team. Even if Robinson suits up, he will be playing at less than 100% and Ekeler is capable both as a runner and as a pass catcher.
The Panthers are both giving and generous and allow the most fantasy points to the position. Thus far, they allow 133.8 rushing yards, 31.5 receiving yards, and 2.0 rushing touchdowns on a per-game basis. Only two backs have rushed for more than 100 yards against them, but nine backs have rushed for touchdowns. Three of those nine rushed for two in the same game.
Touchdowns are flukey things to predict, however, Ekeler scoring once through the air even if Robinson plays is not out of the realm of possibility.
Ekeler fits better in GPP lineups, especially if Robinson is active.
Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) vs. MIN | $6,000 (DraftKings)
Williams’ continues to move forward on his breakout season. He has at least 76 receiving yards in all but one game this season and is the WR18 in fantasy points per game. In four of five games, he has finished as a WR2 or better. What better to dial up the intensity than a divisional matchup against a susceptible defense?
The unbeaten Vikings allow the third-most fantasy points to receivers. Through five games, the Vikings have allowed three receivers to clear the 100-yard mark, two of which are perimeter receivers. They have also allowed five total touchdowns to the position. His on-paper matchup would set him up against Stephon Gilmore, who also shadows on 58% of his snaps. If he spends any time following Amon-Ra St. Brown, that would free Jamo to break coverage downfield.
In a game that features a 50.5 over/under and is beatable from the perimeter, Williams should be in GPP lineups.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL) vs. SEA | $6,300 (FanDuel)
Healthy and on a new team, Mooney is shaping up as one of the more quietly productive team WR2’s the league has to offer. Granted, his involvement can be a little more situational. Thus far, we have seen him succeed as a possession-style receiver and as more of a vertical threat. Thus far, he is operating with a 97.6% route participation and 11.2 yards for average depth of target.
The Seahawks have been more stingy to receivers, offering the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game. However, they have been more susceptible to field stretchers than across the middle. Since week four, the Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to perimeter receivers.
If properly deployed and Drake London receives the attention he is due, Mooney could be in for a game that exceeds the salary. Consider him of the one-off players that could be in winning GPP lineups for this slate.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. LAR | $5,800 (DraftKings)
If there is a week to pay up at the position, this is one of the better ones we have seen this season. After week six, Bowers is the TE2 in fantasy points per game (13.8) and first in total targets with 46. He has had four top-five positional finishes this season and continues to be moved around the formation. The Raiders offensive scheme has included finding ways to exploit mismatches.
Meanwhile, the Rams are generous to tight ends, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. They are allowing an average of 58.5 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns to tight ends.
Bowers was already making noise with Davante Adams still on the roster. Adams has moved on, freeing up a few more targets that should go in the direction of the talented rookie. His expected ownership is better suited for cash games. That being said, Bowers finishing as the TE1 for the week is certainly within the realm of possibility.
David Njoku (TE – CLE) vs. CIN | $5,300 (FanDuel)
While it is a good week to pay up at the position, there are some values lurking a little deeper. Has the Browns offense been good for fantasy? No.
Has Deshaun Watson elevated the production of his weapons? Also no.
Does that mean there is no value to the Browns fantasy options this week? Very much, no. However, there is value here and a skinnier target tree to work with due to the recent trading of Amari Cooper.
There are not a lot stats to support Njoku as a start-worthy play this week, other than the matchup and perceived target share. The Bengals allow the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends. From week five on, they have allowed three touchdowns.
Let’s be honest, Watson has been difficult to watch and impossible to trust for fantasy purposes. Not just for himself, but for his skill position players. He must know he is on the hot seat with a W-hungry Jameis Winston lurking. If there is 0.5PPR safety blanket to look to, it’s Njoku. The matchup is good and the game script is favorable for the Browns to be playing from behind. Njoku is the immediate beneficiary in this offense sans Amari Cooper.
Njoku is a GPP play best used for roster construction in multiple lineup contests.
Kraft is usable in both cash and GPP contests this week and also feels like a safe-floor type of production candidate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
