The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
Bye weeks continue this week and with multiple teams on bye, we have another 10-game slate. (11 if playing on FanDuel)
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 6 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2024)
Quarterbacks
Will Levis (QB – TEN) vs. IND | $4,800 (DraftKings)
Will Levis has not finished better than QB18 in any matchup this season. He has more games with multiple interceptions than with multiple touchdowns and averages just 151 passing yards per game. If those little stats do not get players all hot and bothered, he has also absorbed 15 sacks, which puts him in the top ten for the season.
Sure, none of this is probably wetting the DFS whistle for a lot of players out there, but there are some positives that at least make him look interesting in a swing-for-the-fences kind of way. Firstly, he played a difficult schedule to open the season, starting off against the Bears, then the Jets, followed by the Packers and Dolphins. Three of those matchups are in the top five most difficult matchups against quarterbacks.
This week, they play a divisional tilt against the Colts who allow the third-most fantasy points to the position. In three of their five games, they have allowed a top-ten quarterback performance, one of which was highlighted (Trevor Lawrence) in last week’s article. They’ve allowed their last three opponents to throw for more than 300 hundred yards and surrendered multiple touchdown passes three times.
The top of this salary board has a lot of enticing options to pair with the higher salaries. Levis is maddening to watch at times. This is not a recommended cash-game play. This is for building high-powered (at the skill positions, anyway) tournament rosters. Furthermore, best used for players who enter multiple lineups on the back of a cheap quarterback in a plus matchup.
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) vs. CIN |$6,800 (FanDuel)
Daniel Jones is quietly having himself a solid opening segment of the season. Through five weeks, he averages more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes, has the same amount of touchdowns, more rushing yards, and fewer interceptions. Despite that, he is still cheaper than Joe Flacco, Justin Herbert, and Andy Dalton. If only he had a good matchup…
The Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. The downside is that Jones will be without his talented rookie, Malik Nabers, but that did not stop him from finishing as the QB11 last week.
Jones is production at value pricing on this slate and is in a good matchup to ice the proverbial cake.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) vs. NO | $5,400 (DraftKings)
At the time of this writing, Rachaad White has not yet been officially ruled out. However, he has been downgraded to doubtful. Irving is steadily carving out a role for himself in the Buccaneers’ backfield with a healthy White to split touches with. Over the last two contests, Irving saw more than 42% of the snaps and averaged 11 touches. With White expected to be sidelined, Irving’s role should increase to a very usable rate for this slate.
The Saints are not the friendliest matchup, allowing 12th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. That being said, they allowed Kareem Hunt to essentially come off the couch and drop over 100 rushing yards and a score on them last week.
Irving’s efficiency numbers will most likely take a hit with an increase in volume, but the volume is the allure of this play at the cost. He is a volume-based play better suited for GPP’s than cash games this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET) vs. DAL | $7,800 (FanDuel)
This is one of those plays where the feeling is that not only is paying up recommended, it is condoned. The only hesitation is picking which back from this backfield is going to be the most productive for the salary. David Montgomery is reprising his role from last season as a goal-line monster and Gibbs has finished as RB9 or better over the Lions’ last two contests. What is most impressive about that is that Gibbs did so, in both contests, with zero targets after seeing 13 through his first two games. Which leads some analysts to believe that there was uneaten meat on that bone.
The Cowboys’ run defense exists, on the field. However, it has not been showing up on the stat sheet. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs while playing against backs like Jerome Ford, Devin Singletary, and a really disappointing Najee Harris.
Again, the only hesitation is choosing which back to use. Gibbs is $100 cheaper than Monty but either back can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this week.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) vs. WAS | $6,500 (DraftKings)
Zay Flowers is the hit-or-miss receiver who is frustrating to roster in redraft leagues. Through five weeks, his best finish was as WR11 back in Week 2. Coincidentally, he also scored his first touchdown in that same game. Flowers remains Lamar Jackson’s primary read among the receivers on this team and this play is more than just about his individual statistics.
Washington is generous to the receiver position. They allow the sixth-most fantasy points and an average of 158 receiving yards to go along with their 2.0 touchdowns, on a per-game basis. And, it gets better. It is not just how much they allow, it is also how much they will fight. The Commanders can and will score in this game. In fact, the Ravens allow the third-most fantasy points to receivers.
In a game that features a 51.5 Over/Under, pieces of both offenses should be in play. Flowers is usable in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) vs. PHI | $6,200 (FanDuel)
Ugh…this call has more volatility than Doge crypto when Elon Musk opens his Twitter app. On the plus side, Cooper has seen at least eight targets in every game this season and double-digit targets twice in the last three games. The downside is they are coming from Deshaun Watson. Despite the target share, Cooper has hit double-digit FanDuel points in only one contest. Has Cooper lost a step? Possibly. Is his quarterback good? Umm…no. Which is where the volatility comes into play.
The Eagles allow the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They’re surrendering an average of 183 receiving yards and 1.8 touchdowns to the position. This is a plus matchup.
Here is where I veer left on Narrative Street. Watson and Jameis Winston are separated by $300 on FanDuel and the same salary on DraftKings. Should Watson get benched, hurt, need to evacuate his bowels, or leave the game in a fashion made famous by Antonio Brown, Cooper could explode. The pricing makes one raise their eyebrows.
If players need a high-variance outcome that is sub-ten points with a ceiling of 20-plus, Cooper is the man for the job at a reasonable salary.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) vs. BAL | $3,700 (DraftKings)
Punt and pray should be our new motto when it comes to tight ends and DFS. Pay up and prepare for disappointment. Pay down and shrug when the play does not come through. Zach Ertz rides in the middle of value, opportunity, and production. He is 14th in targets, 18th in yards, and has yet to come down with a touchdown this season. However, he is averaging 4.8 targets per game and has yet to drop a Mark Andrews donut on us yet…though he came close last week.
As mentioned earlier, points are going to happen in this game. The Ravens are the seventh-friendliest matchup for the position.
Ertz is not a slate-breaker this week but he is safe in the opportunity department. At cost, he is a fringe cash play that allows for roster upgrades elsewhere.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB) vs. ARI | $6,000 (FanDuel)
Tucker Kraft continues to solidify his role in the Green Bay offense with a 13.5% target share. Over the last two weeks, he has finished as the TE2 and TE1, respectively. Overall, he is the TE3 in half-point PPR scoring.
Arizona is not the TE pushover they once were, currently surrendering the 14th-most fantasy points to the position. However, the allure here is that the Packers offense features a lot of capable pass-catchers and Kraft can operate from multiple alignments creating potential mismatches.
Kraft is usable in both cash and GPP contests this week and also feels like a safe-floor type of production candidate.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
