The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
Bye weeks start this week and with multiple teams on bye, we have our first 10-game slate. (11 if playing on FanDuel)
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 5 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2024)
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) vs. IND | $5,700 (DraftKings)
Allow us to begin with some honesty. Trevor Lawrence has been disappointing…again…for fantasy purposes this season. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game just once and has yet to break the 15 fantasy point margin this season. While none of this is building a positive case for dropping him in lineups, we are going to take a short turn on Narrative Street where it briefly intersects with Statistics Boulevard.
Lawrence is averaging 63.8 completion percentage through his first three seasons. To start this season, he has yet to break 58% or greater. He is due for regression to the mean. Thus far he has faced the Miami Dolphins (2nd), Cleveland Browns (7th), Buffalo Bills (11th), and the Houston Texans which rank as the 24th most difficult matchups against the position. His best game through that opening series was his only one not against a top-twelve defense.
This week, the winless Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts in a matchup that has a 46-point Over/Under. The Colts are the third friendliest defense for quarterbacks to start this season. They surrender an average of 257.8 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Lawrence is not a slate-breaking value. However, he is someone a lot of DFS players are avoiding, and he just so happens to have come off of a fairly difficult beginning of the season. The ownership will be low, the matchup is great, and Lawrence can play better than we have seen if it’s against the right defense. Obviously, he is to be avoided in cash games. For players who only submit single entries, he is better to avoid as well. Lawrence is the cog in a contrarian build for multi-lineup players this week.
Brock Purdy (QB – SF) vs. ARI | $7,700 (FanDuel)
Through the first four weeks of the season, Brock Purdy has finished as a QB14 or better in three games, including a QB5 finish in Week 3. He is averaging a healthy 282.5 passing yards per game and has five touchdowns with only two interceptions. The low touchdown rate is central to his reduction in overall appeal for fantasy purposes.
The Cardinals have allowed eight total touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, including two games of multiple touchdown passes. Purdy has built his career on efficiency and will look to continue that trend against a friendly defense that allowed rookie Jayden Daniels to both throw for one and run one in last week.
Purdy’s salary allows for some roster construction around him. He can be used in cash games as well as GPP contests. This game features a 49-point Over/Under, which is one of the highest on this slate.
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson (RB – NE) vs. MIA | $5,100 (DraftKings)
The writing has been on the wall for those who have paid attention to the usage in the Patriots’ backfield over the last couple of weeks. Rhamondre Stevenson continues to be a liability as a ball carrier. He has fumbled once in all four games and lost two of them. Stevenson began the season with a 78% running back rush share to 68% in last week’s loss. Meanwhile, Gibson has continued to see meaningful targets and produce with them. In last week’s contest, Gibson turned three receptions into 67 receiving yards.
Head coach Jerod Mayo stated that he had a conversation with Stevenson and that he “won’t be starting … I’ll be upfront and transparent. But he will play. And he understands he has to protect the football going forward…” Gibson will get an opportunity as a starter for at least this week.
The Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including an average of 113 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing touchdowns. Gibson excels as a pass-catcher out of the backfield and therefore has even more appeal at cost in DraftKings full-point-PPR scoring system. Due to the cost against the possible upside in an expanded role, Gibson has appeal in GPP contests over cash games this week.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) vs. CAR | $6,400 (FanDuel)
Just when it felt like the whole fantasy world had turned their backs on Swift, he decided to play football again. Swift impressed last week with 165 scrimmage yards and a score. While no one was predicting that nor should we expect that tier of production this week, Swift is intriguing on this slate. Perhaps Swift felt Roschon Johnson nipping at his heels in this offense. Perhaps it was the offense having a day pretending they were cohesive. Either way, last week Swift looked like the player the Bears pursued in free agency.
The matchup is fantastic. The Panthers pave the turf with red carpet for running backs, allowing the second most fantasy points and rushing yards to the position. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns through four weeks, for those who math at home, that is good.
Swift is usable in both cash and GPP contests. For the truly contrarian play, Roschon Johnson is $5,800 and could allow for roster construction elsewhere. With the tantalizing matchup, sprinkling both into multiple lineup contests due to cost versus potential upside is a workable approach.
Wide Receivers
Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB) vs. LAR | $5,000 (DraftKings)
While the DFS world flocks to Jayden Reed ($6,500), savvy players are looking for the values that could be had in this offense and matchup. Not that Reed isn’t a solid play this week, he is, but there is solid value a little further down the salary board. Dontayvion Wicks was already tied with Reed for total targets, even with Christian Watson in the lineup. Now, with Watson out, there are a few more targets to be distributed and Wicks and Romeo Doubs (Doubtful to play) would be the immediate beneficiaries.
The Rams allow the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. They allow 1.8 receiving touchdowns, on average per game and just recently allowed Juan Jennings to torch them for 175 yards and three scores. While not implying that Wicks could perform to those standards, the situation is eerily similar.
Wicks has value baked into the cost. He should be in lineups, whether cash or GPP this week.
Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) vs. WAS | $6,200 (FanDuel)
Regression is a funny thing to discuss. People have an idea of what regression means; typically it is negative in its connotation. In its simplest mathematical definition, regression translates to a return to a mean in value. With an established mean, Amari Cooper has been Mark Andrews‘s level of underperformance. Cooper has had some shoddy misses, but Deshaun Watson has not exactly played up to the dollar-level of his contract either. Regression is coming.
The Commanders are friendly to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. They allow the most fantasy points to the latter and an average of 2.5 receiving touchdowns per game. Here is the kicker, the Commanders can put up points, necessitating an aerial approach to offense. More passing means more targets for Mr. Cooper, who has broken slates before, just not with Deshaun Watson. Yet.
Cooper is far from a chalk play and honestly speaking, the price tag is surprising given the production thus far. He is best utilized in GPP contests as the upside pick at a slightly reduced cost.
Tight Ends
Colby Parkinson (TE – LAR) vs. GB | $3,700 (DraftKings)
The mess that is the tight end landscape for fantasy continues. Between bye weeks, a skinny slate, and bad matchups for the position, it is time to dig deep. The process with this slate is to recognize that the position has largely underperformed for fantasy points this season. Therefore, play the better matchups at the reduced salary and just hope for double-digit PPR points. Parkinson has 19 targets through the first four weeks, which is not paramount but per Rotowire’s route data, he has the fourth-most routes among tight ends. His involvement should continue while both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp remain sidelined. Not to mention, there still has been little news on Tyler Higbee.
The Packers are friendly towards tight ends, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points and receiving yards to the position.
This is a punt play at a position that has largely disappointed to start the season. Based on usage, he can be played in both cash and GPP’s with the same tempered expectations for the position while not paying enough to be truly disappointed.
Mike Gesicki (TE – CIN) vs. BAL | $5,300 (FanDuel)
As mentioned, tight ends are gross. Not as people or a position, mind you, just for fantasy purposes this season. This season, for DFS purposes, it is not always about who can score the most. It is about who can hurt my lineup the least given the salary. I have personally spent more time crawling the TEs on DFS sites this season than I did back in the day in the $5.00 movie bin at WalMart. And I am ashamed of both. But, I digress…
I cannot quit Mike Gesicki. If he is on the field, it is for pass-catching purposes. He had a touchdown called back in Week 1 and 91 receiving yards in Week 2.
The Ravens practically ignore opposing tight ends in the same manner in which most people ignore the butt-end of the bread loaf. Thus far, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position, despite not allowing a touchdown yet. That’s right, the Ravens have faced Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Kincaid and not allowed a touchdown.
This one is crazy, but for long-shot, upside builds in multiple lineup tournaments, Gesicki should be on the radar as that off-the-wall play.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
