Week 6 of the NFL season delivered its usual mix of drama, touchdowns and disappointments. As we approach the halfway point, we’ve accumulated enough data to make informed judgments regarding certain players and teams. Patterns continue to emerge regarding player effectiveness and teams’ defensive strengths. Are your star receiver’s recent struggles due to a lack of volume and efficiency? Or has he simply faced a slew of run-funnel defensive units?
The following list contains players who, based on their recent performances, are likely to see a shift in perceived value. In each case, we’ll outline the underlying causes of their production (or lack thereof) and determine whether fantasy managers should adjust their expectations moving forward.
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Fantasy Football Risers
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
If not for Jayden Daniels‘ otherworldly start to his career, Caleb Williams would be garnering much more praise from the fantasy football community. The rookie has performed as the overall QB3 over the past two weeks as the Chicago Bears have found their offensive identity. After a poor start to the 2024 season, the Bears offense has now scored a minimum of 35 points in two consecutive weeks.
It’s certainly worth mentioning that the Jaguars and the Panthers, the two teams Williams has faced during his impressive run, boast two of the worst defenses in the league. At any rate, Williams’ performances are bound to translate as the Bears’ schedule starts to get tougher.
Williams was viewed by many as a generational prospect heading into the 2024 NFL Draft. While he’s certainly dealt with some rookie learning curves, he’s displayed every ounce of that potential through the first six games of his professional career. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, he ranks in the upper half in terms of adjusted completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). The efficiency metrics are bound to steadily increase as he gains more experience in the NFL.
Williams also has the added benefit of working alongside an impressive group of weapons. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze headline an outstanding wide receiver core. While the veteran Allen has struggled with injury for the vast majority of the 2024 season, his breakout performance in Week 6 suggests he’s finally in full form.
All told, Caleb Williams is nevertheless a rookie and there will inevitably be some poor performances along the way. That said, the offense being run in Chicago adheres perfectly to his strengths and he’ll continue to provide fantasy value. Williams should be considered a weekly startable asset, albeit a riskier proposition against stronger opponents.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX)
Admittedly, Tank Bigsby’s seven-carry, 24-yard performance doesn’t help his status as a riser. Nevertheless, there’s been a distinct trend occurring in the Jacksonville backfield. Travis Etienne has seen a continuous decrease in his workload since the beginning of the season. This has coincided with an increase in Bigsby’s usage. With Etienne now expected to be sidelined for a couple of weeks due to a hamstring injury, Bigsby will inherit a workhorse role.
Tank Bigsby has been the Jaguars’ most efficient rusher this season. Thus far, he’s outperformed Etienne in terms of rushing grade, yards after contact per carry and elusive rating, per PFF. This efficiency, combined with a plethora of carries, should lead to plenty of fantasy production in the coming weeks.
The one limiting factor to Bigsby’s fantasy output is his lack of usage as a receiver. Etienne has consistently operated as the team’s third-down back. Expect D’Ernest Johnson to monopolize most of the pass-catching volume with Etienne out. Johnson has earned more targets, more receptions and a higher receiving grade than Bigsby in 2024, per PFF.
All things considered, Bigsby’s path to elite early-down volume makes him a low-end RB2 while Etienne remains sidelined. That said, his fantasy upside is capped by a lack of receiving usage and an overall struggling offensive unit in Jacksonville.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
After a somewhat disappointing 2023 season, Chris Godwin has bounced back in a big way. He’s currently the WR2 in half-PPR formats and has proven to be the ideal fit in Liam Coen’s offensive system. The Tampa Bay passing attack has always operated through Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. In Coen’s explosive scheme, which has seen Baker Mayfield lead the NFL in passing touchdowns, there is plenty of room for both wideouts to produce at an elite level.
Offseason speculation regarding Godwin’s return to the slot receiver role sparked hope for his fantasy value. According to PFF, Godwin has run 61.1% of his routes from the slot this season and he’s relishing this new role. Among wide receivers with at least 25 targets, the veteran ranks second in receiving grade, sixth in yards after the catch per reception and seventh in yards per route run.
Chris Godwin current 17-game pace:
122 receptions
1,448 yards
14 touchdowns— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 14, 2024
It’s hard to poke any holes in Godwin’s fantasy outlook for the remainder of the season. This is a player at the peak of his powers operating in an ideal role in a fruitful offense. He should be in WR1 consideration for the foreseeable future.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN)
During the offseason, Calvin Ridley seemed poised for a productive season in Tennessee. The team made a significant financial commitment to the veteran during free agency, presumably to operate as the team’s No. 1 WR. With Hopkins showing signs of age and attrition in 2023, the team seemed ready to allocate their targets elsewhere. Fantasy managers simply needed Will Levis to continue his development to support Ridley’s fantasy value.
Unfortunately, Will Levis appears to have taken a step back in his progression as an NFL quarterback. He’s continuously struggled to sustain drives and his turnovers have often been the deciding factor in Titans’ losses. Levis has particularly struggled with the deep ball. According to PFF, he’s earned a horrific 44.4 passing grade on throws 20+ yards downfield. As a result, plenty of Ridley’s so-called targets have been entirely uncatchable.
Did you accidentally drink something poisonous and need to vomit it up quickly? Consider watching all 8 of Calvin Ridley's "targets" in yesterday's game. This is not football. pic.twitter.com/bKbFyxJOWm
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) October 14, 2024
Ridley’s situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Backup quarterback Mason Rudolph is hardly an upgrade over Levis. The Titans’ passing attack will continue to struggle, which will likely force their hand in adopting a run-centric offensive game plan.
Ridley’s talent is undeniable, but he simply finds himself in an offensive ecosystem that cannot support weekly fantasy production. Until there are dramatic changes in Tennessee, he should not be started in any format.
Zach Moss (RB – CIN)
The Cincinnati Bengals backfield split between Zack Moss and Chase Brown was hotly speculated over the offseason. To begin the year, it seemed Moss had a stranglehold on No. 1 RB duties. Brown only featured sparingly as a change-of-pace back in third-down situations. However, the carry distribution has become increasingly even with each passing week. Brown out-carried his running mate 10-6 in the Bengals’ Week 6 win against the Giants.
Moss was benched after a costly fumble on the Bengals’ first drive of the second half. He did not record a single carry or target for the remainder of the contest. It’s become progressively clear the Bengals have not been satisfied with Moss’ performance during his tenure as the starting back. Throughout six games, his PFF rushing grade and elusive rating have both been bested by Brown. The latter has earned more rushing yards despite having 12 fewer attempts.
It’s a matter of time before the Bengals allocate the majority of their backfield touches toward the more effective runner in Brown. As a back who’s always lacked explosiveness and game-breaking athleticism, Moss’ fantasy value is contingent on volume. With a decrease in touches, Moss will be better suited on fantasy football benches. For the time being, Moss should be considered a very risky RB3 when making fantasy start sit decisions. This value is liable to further decrease in the coming weeks.
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