Heading into Week 5, NFL fans were anticipating a slate of games that had the potential to be among the most exciting of the 2024 season. With Week 5 now in the rearview mirror, it’s safe to say that these matchups did not disappoint. Several high-profile contests between NFL juggernauts resulted in a plethora of points being scored across the league. Fantasy managers finally got the high-scoring Sunday they’ve been craving all season.
This past weekend’s offensive explosion coincided with a number of players outperforming their weekly projections by a comfortable margin. However, a few key players still managed to disappoint amidst this offensive frenzy.
In what follows, I’ll highlight the top performers and those who fell short while providing insights into their rest-of-season fantasy football outlook.
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Fantasy Football Risers
Over the offseason, the common narrative was that Drake London’s fantasy output has always been limited by sub-par QB play. London was expected to flourish with Kirk Cousins now in the fold. Despite the shaky start, these narratives seem to be developing exactly as London truthers would have hoped. Kirk Cousins appears to have fully recovered from his Achilles injury and has developed a rock-solid rapport with London. The latter has earned a minimum of nine targets in three consecutive contests.
From an efficiency standpoint, Pro Football Focus (PFF) metrics would suggest that London has taken a sizeable leap in his third year in the NFL. Among 65 WRs with at least 20 targets, London ranks 11th in receiving grade and 13th in contested catch percentage.
While the likes of Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are intriguing secondary options, there are no true competitors to London’s target share. Expect the Falcons’ offense to continue to rely heavily on London and his pass-catching prowess. Consider him a top-15 WR moving forward.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride for D’Andre Swift’s fantasy managers. After a calamitous start that saw Swift perform as the RB42 through the first three weeks of the year, the veteran RB seems to have found form. He’s scored a minimum of 19 half-PPR fantasy points in two consecutive weeks.
What’s most encouraging about Swift’s fantasy outlook is the team’s clear commitment to making him a focal point of the offense. After signing a lucrative three-year, $24-million contract over the summer, Swift has operated as the unquestioned RB1. He’s averaged 17.8 touches per game this season.
While Swift’s efficiency has left much to be desired – averaging an underwhelming 1.86 yards after contact per attempt in 2024, according to PFF – his athleticism and explosiveness pose a significant threat to opposing defenses. The Chicago offense has significantly improved in recent weeks, with rookie QB Caleb Williams growing more comfortable at the NFL level. A more efficient offensive ecosystem could open up bigger and more frequent running lanes for Swift to exploit.
The one caveat to Swift’s fantasy value is his lack of touchdown upside. During his tenures in Detroit and Philadelphia, Swift never managed to earn a consistent goal-line role. History seems to be repeating itself in Chicago, where Roschon Johnson has earned the role as the team’s primary goal-to-go running back. Johnson scored two touchdowns in Sunday’s matchup against Carolina.
Swift’s volume vaults him into weekly RB2 consideration. However, his fantasy upside is nevertheless limited by inefficiencies and a lack of red-zone usage.
Fantasy Football Fallers
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Breece Hall, who was once considered a consensus first-round draft selection. The third-year RB has now failed to surpass 5.5 half-PPR fantasy points in two consecutive weeks. While this lack of production can partially be explained by the stout defenses the Jets have faced, certain underlying factors are far more concerning.
For one, rookie Braelon Allen‘s involvement has increased steadily since the start of the year. He’s averaged 10 touches per game over the past three weeks. The rookie has also out-performed Hall in terms of run grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating (per PFF). Allen has proved to be an effective change-of-pace back, and, at this point, it’s highly unlikely that Hall earns the carry share that fantasy managers would have hoped for during the offseason.
The Jets’ offense has struggled this season. Whether it’s Nathaniel Hackett’s questionable play-calling or the porous offensive line performance, this team has struggled to sustain drives.
As the Jets’ schedule starts to lighten up, I’d expect the team to make great improvements on offense. After all, Aaron Rodgers is a Hall-of-Fame QB with an intriguing group of weapons at his disposal. Breece Hall’s touchdown upside remains high. Hall has received all of the team’s carries from within the five-yard line and remains the clear goal-line back for the Jets.
Hall managers shouldn’t panic just yet. While we may have to slightly temper expectations, he remains a rock-solid RB1. This is, nevertheless, an explosive RB who figures to earn valuable receiving and goal-line touches in a Rodgers-led offense.
Travis Etienne is yet another RB who, like Breece Hall, has surprisingly started to cede touches to the younger player in his backfield. However, there is more cause for concern in Etienne’s case.
Etienne’s calling card has always been his elusiveness in space. However, he’s yet to demonstrate this trademark play-making ability in 2024. Among RBs with at least 20 carries, Etienne ranks 44th in run grade and 41st in elusive rating (per PFF). This has led the Jaguars to explore their other backfield options, most notably the sophomore RB Tank Bigsby.
Tank Bigsby out-snapped Travis Etienne for the first time in his career today.
Bigsby in Week 5:
– 41% snap rate
– 13-101-2 rushing
– 60% snap rate and both rush attempts from inside of the 10-yard line— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 6, 2024
Bigsby has been one of the few bright spots in this Jaguars’ offense that has struggled mightily in 2024. He’s been a far more effective runner than Etienne who, according to PFF, has produced fewer missed tackles forced and yards after contact per carry.
Thus far, Etienne’s saving grace has been his production as a pass-catcher. To this end, he’s accumulated 22 targets for 16 receptions and 91 receiving yards. With TE Evan Engram set to return from injury soon, Trevor Lawrence‘s short-area targets may also be headed elsewhere.
Etienne finds himself in a backfield trending closer and closer towards a timeshare. He’s struggled to maintain any level of efficiency as this Jaguars’ offense has been among the league’s worst. At this point, Etienne should be considered an RB3 for fantasy.
Week 5’s Thursday night matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons did not disappoint. The teams scored a total of 66 points as overtime was needed to crown a winner. It was a dream contest for fantasy football managers, except for those who roster Bijan Robinson, who only managed 9.2 half-PPR fantasy points during the shootout.
It’s hard to pinpoint why Robinson has struggled to deliver from a fantasy football perspective. The Atlanta Falcons’ offense is clearly thriving, with Cousins under center. The team has also made a concerted effort to make Robinson a focal point of the offensive scheme. The sophomore RB has averaged 17.0 touches per game this season.
The Texas product’s “struggles” are simply arbitrary touchdown luck. Despite the elite usage, Robinson has only found the end zone once in 2024. With the Falcons’ offense producing at a high rate, Robinson is due for some positive touchdown regression.
The eye test would suggest that Robinson is one of the league’s most talented RBs. The underlying metrics would support this assertion as well. Per PFF, he’s averaged 2.85 yards after contact per carry and has forced 14 missed tackles.
All things considered, Robinson managers should not be concerned about their first-round investment. He is due to benefit from positive regression that will vault him back into elite RB1 consideration.
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