Part of what makes fantasy football so exhilarating is the inherent unpredictability that comes with it. With each passing week, certain players emerge from fantasy football irrelevance to become week-winners in subsequent matchups. On the flip side, we often see players who, once considered mainstays in lineups, become unstartable as their usage and production face a steep decline.
Savvy managers should examine the underlying factors driving these changes in production trends. Doing so paints a clearer picture of a player’s outlook for the remainder of the fantasy football season. Are the players’ struggles likely to persist? Or is he due for some positive regression in the coming weeks? Those who accurately answer these questions throughout the season will be primed for long-term success.
The following list contains players who, through four weeks of the NFL season, have seen significant shifts in their perceived value since draft season. For each player, I’ll underline whether the player’s current outlook will be prescriptive for the rest of the fantasy football season.
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Fantasy Football Risers
Over the offseason, Jayden Reed was somewhat of a polarizing fantasy football profile. Those who were bullish on Reed’s fantasy upside cited the undeniable play-making ability he demonstrated throughout his rookie season. He emerged as a true weapon in Matt LaFleur’s scheme that utilized Reed’s ability as both a rusher and a receiver. On the other hand, the skeptics pointed to Reed’s usage as a slot-only WR who often left the field in 2-WR sets. With a plethora of intriguing pass-catching options in Green Bay, many questioned whether Reed would receive the requisite volume to enjoy a true sophomore breakout.
At this point, it’s fair to dismiss any doubts about Reed’s fantasy outlook. He’s developed an excellent rapport with franchise QB Jordan Love, who’s targeted Reed an average of seven times during his two starts. In games with Love under center, Reed has averaged 5.5 receptions and 138.5 receiving yards. Additionally, he continues to earn volume on the ground. He’s accumulated 91 yards and a touchdown as a rusher thus far in 2024.
From an efficiency standpoint, Reed has clearly made significant strides in his second season in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ranks second in yards per route run and first in yards after the catch per reception among WRs with at least 15 targets. He managed to maintain elite levels of efficiency despite having sub-par QB play in Weeks 2-3 of the season. With a fully healthy Love back in the fold, Reed should be ranked on the WR1-WR2 border for weeks to come.
After three weeks of wildly disappointing production, Travis Kelce finally delivered his breakout performance of the 2024 season. He set season-highs in targets, receptions and yards as the reigning Super Bowl champions improved to 4-0.
In the first three weeks, the Chiefs seemed content to lean on their younger pass-catchers, including the likes of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. It was in the Chiefs’ best interest to preserve their 35-year-old TE during the regular season to prepare for yet another championship push in the winter. However, injuries to both Rice and Marquise Brown have likely forced Andy Reid’s hand to increase Kelce’s usage for the rest of the season.
While his most efficient years are certainly behind him, Kelce still possesses the ability and wherewithal to be a key weapon in the Chiefs’ offense. Expect him to see a drastic increase in targets in upcoming games. The perennial red zone threat is also due for positive touchdown regression, as he has yet to find the end zone through four contests in 2024. Kelce managers may now breathe a sigh of relief with fantasy start sit decisions as he returns to rock-solid TE1 production in the coming weeks.
In a year that’s seen historically low levels of overall passing production, the QB position has been a collective disappointment in fantasy football. However, rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been one of the few bright spots. He currently leads the position in total fantasy points.
Heading into his rookie season, no one doubted Daniels’ rushing acumen. Throughout his collegiate career, he demonstrated levels of athleticism that could only be compared to the likes of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. These skills have translated seamlessly to the NFL field, where he’s accumulated 218 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns thus far.
Daniels’ efficiency as a passer has been particularly eye-catching. Among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, Daniels ranks in the top 10 in both passing grade and turnover-worthy play percentage, per PF). He and star WR Terry McLaurin have developed a great rapport over the past two weeks as well. The two have combined for 11 receptions, 152 yards and two touchdowns since the Commanders faced the Bengals in Week 3.
Daniels’ ceiling is truly sky-high. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has the Washington offense firing on all cylinders at the moment. As the rookie grows accustomed to the NFL, he’ll continue to provide elite fantasy production. Daniels should be considered a top-six QB option for the rest of the season.
Fantasy Football Fallers
It’s hard to find a silver lining in Mark Andrews’ abysmal start to the 2024 season. Week 4 marked Andrews’ second consecutive game without a reception. Simply put, the Ravens’ offensive scheme no longer requires Andrews’ services as an excellent pass-catcher. The team has opted for a run-heavy offensive scheme that has seen QB Lamar Jackson throwing at an alarmingly low rate. When Jackson does drop back to pass, the likes of Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely are being prioritized above the veteran TE.
Andrews’ efficiency metrics have left much to be desired. According to PFF, he’s currently on pace to set career lows in receiving grade, yards per reception and yards per route run. At this juncture, it’s fair to question whether age and attrition have taken a toll. It’s important to recall that his 2023 season was cut short due to a severe cracked fibula injury. Early performances would suggest Andrews is still dealing with the lingering effects of this ailment.
Ultimately, it’s evident the Ravens’ offense runs through Jackson and Derrick Henry. They’ll continue to decimate opponents on the ground and limit Jackson’s attempts through the air. Unless there is a drastic shift in offensive philosophy in Baltimore, Andrews cannot be started in fantasy football.
It’s officially time for Brandon Aiyuk fantasy owners to panic. The outlook has been grim since the offseason, and it’s only getting worse. From contract disputes to poor on-field performances and even mid-week practice attire controversies, the narrative around Aiyuk continues to be a concern.
Many held hope the injuries to both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel would help Aiyuk get back on track. The presumed increase in volume was meant to help Aiyuk break out of his early slump. However, Jauan Jennings emerged as the primary benefactor of these vacated targets. Despite the missed games, Aiyuk remains behind all of the aforementioned pass-catchers in total receptions this season.
It’s hard to pinpoint the cause of Aiyuk’s sharp decline in production. The lack of a proper offseason regimen likely played a significant role. However, we are now approaching the quarter mark of the season and Aiyuk’s trademark explosiveness and route-running prowess are nowhere to be seen. Among WRs with at least 15 targets, Aiyuk ranks 45th in receiving grade and 51st in yards per route run, according to PFF.
Nevertheless, Aiyuk is a talented WR who’s primed to see valuable targets in one of the league’s most potent offenses. As frustrating as his lack of production has been thus far, his upside still warrants a weekly start. If these struggles persist for another couple of weeks, managers may have to weigh their options. In the meantime, Aiyuk should be ranked as a top-20 WR.
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