Happy Halloween, fantasy football managers. Hopefully, this season has not scared you from the game and you’re primed to close out the fantasy schedule strong. With nearly half of the season in the books, the “Who’s Who” of NFL offenses in 2024 is taking shape.

Below is the Week 9 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down, and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all 32 NFL teams.

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*For more details on expected points added (EPA), click here. The table at the bottom of this article is sorted by EPA/play.

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are running away with the AFC East. Buffalo improved to 6-2 last week after walloping the Seahawks in Seattle. The Bills are third in EPA/play (0.14) and have turned the ball over only three times this season.

The Bills have a balanced offense, throwing on 51% of their plays. They are a top-five team in EPA/play, EPA/pass (0.20) and EPA/run (0.08). Josh Allen is having one of his best seasons concerning accuracy. His completion percentage (64.1%) is higher than his career average and he has thrown 14 touchdowns to only one interception. Allen’s throwing volume is down considerably in 2024, but it is allowing this offense to remain efficient by limiting sacks and turnovers.

Allen has been sacked only 10 times, the lowest total in the NFL. He is also averaging 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground, helping maintain his elite fantasy production. Allen is the fantasy QB4 ahead of Week 9 and should only be shopped by managers lacking depth throughout their lineups.

The receiving production in Buffalo comes from Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid. Shakir is ridiculously efficient, catching 36 of his 37 total targets this season. He trails only Kincaid (43) in targets on the team. If his usage near the goal line expands, Shakir will be an awesome trade target. Coleman is developing nicely as a rookie — averaging 18.9 yards per reception with three touchdowns. Coleman is a good spot-starter. In dynasty and keeper leagues, though, he is a great stash player as he will be paired with Allen for multiple seasons. Kincaid has had a slow start but has received at least six targets in each of the last four games.

James Cook is the alpha of the Buffalo backfield. He is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and zero fumbles. With Cook’s ability to catch the ball, it will be hard to get similar value back for him in the trade market. (Use our trade analyzer tool to gauge value and trade ideas.) He is an anchor-type fantasy RB and currently ranks seventh at his position.

Los Angeles Chargers 

The Chargers are a bottom-half NFL team in EPA/play (-0.07), but they have improved in throwing the football over the past four games. After Week 5, Los Angeles ranked 23rd in EPA/pass (-0.14) but now ranks 16th (-0.02) after beating the Saints last week.

Justin Herbert has turned in back-to-back games that opened things up for this offense. He averaged nearly nine yards per attempt in Week 7 and Week 8 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Chargers are 24th in pass rate ( 51.4%), but things look to be ramping up with Herbert’s top three games in attempts (34, 39, 32) coming in the last three weeks. Herbert has thrown only one interception and the Chargers’ offense has turned the ball over only four times. If they continue to take care of the football alongside these throwing trends, an increase in production is coming for this team.

Rookie WR Ladd McConkey leads this team in targets (44), yards (376) and touchdowns (four) through the air. McConkey will benefit the most if the Chargers continue to throw and could prove to be an important asset for his managers as a rookie on a developing offense.

J.K. Dobbins is the clear lead RB for the Chargers. He is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt despite the Chargers being 31st in light box percentage (31.9%). The pressure on the Chargers’ run game may drop with Herbert throwing more. Dobbins is the fantasy RB18 and is a premier buy-low target.

Miami Dolphins

It has been a long year in Miami, but the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa last week immediately impacted this offense’s ability to move the ball. They moved from 32nd in EPA/play (-0.28) to 29th (-0.21), gaining 377 total yards and scoring 27 points against the Cardinals.

Tagovailoa went 28-for-38 for 234 yards and a touchdown in his first game since Week 2. Miami improved in EPA/pass from -0.29 to -0.2. The Dolphins are allowing their passers a clean pocket, as they are seventh in the NFL in QB pressure rate (28.9%). In 2023, Tagovailoa posted a completion percentage of 68.2% and threw 30 touchdowns while healthy. If he stays on the field in 2024, he should deliver the ball accurately on an offense with a history of explosiveness. Miami is 12th in the league in average target separation (3.6).

The Dolphins are the epitome of a buy-low roster. The pass-catching group includes Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith. Hill is currently the fantasy WR45. This may be the best opportunity to buy low on him since he broke out in Kansas City in 2017. He received nine targets from Tagovailoa last week and tallied 72 yards. Waddle is second on the team in targets (36) and carries a catch rate of 72.2% on the season. This is up from his career average and an impressive number for a receiver who does not play out of the slot. Waddle could become a serious deep threat in the back half of the fantasy schedule, and similar to Hill, has a discounted price tag.

With this roster regaining its health, the two primary RBs will be De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. The Dolphins rank 31st in EPA/run (-0.23), but the return of Tagovailoa should take some attention off the running game. Achane will be harder to acquire because of his role in the passing game. Mostert will serve as the goal-line threat for fantasy managers.

Offenses Trending Down

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks scored only 10 points in Week 8 against the Bills, a game in which they had only 32 rushing yards. Seattle moved from 13th to 17th in EPA/play (-0.05) in the 31-10 loss.

The 2024 Seahawks’ offense is totally out of balance. They are throwing on over 66% of their plays, the highest rate in the NFL. This has kept their running game stationary and the Seahawks are now 21st in EPA/run (-0.09) and 29th in rushing yards per game (89.3). Opponents are picking up on this with Seattle ranking eighth in light box percentage (48.2%). Kenneth Walker is an elite athlete out of this backfield and has managed fantasy RB11 production despite the low volume. Walker has scored six touchdowns, but his production will be capped unless this unit adopts the run game more.

For a team that goes to the air so often, the Seahawks are a mid-level throwing team concerning efficiency. They are 15th in passing yards per play (6.4) and 17th in EPA/pass (-0.03). Geno Smith has thrown eight touchdowns along with seven interceptions. This is a large chunk of the team’s 12 total turnovers, which places them in the top 10 in the NFL. Smith will need to take care of the football and get help from the run game to take the pressure off. For now, DK Metcalf and Walker are the only usable fantasy assets for managers with Seattle being one-dimensional.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints lost their sixth straight game on Sunday, scoring only eight points against the Chargers. New Orleans has tumbled from sixth in EPA/play over the last four games to 22nd (-0.1).

The most alarming component of this offense is the passing game. This team has not adapted to the absence of Derek Carr. Spencer Rattler has taken the majority of the snaps since Carr went down in Week 5. He has a completion percentage of 60.2% with a touchdown and two interceptions. Rattler has been sacked 15 times in the three games he has started with the Saints, carrying the 11th-highest QB pressure rate (36.8%) in the league. They need to adjust up front or this amount of pressure will continue to drag this unit down. New Orleans is 22nd in passing yards per play (5.8) and 25th in EPA/pass (-0.18).

The Saints’ running attack is holding up from an efficiency standpoint. The team is ninth in EPA/rush (0.0) and has scored exactly half (10) of their total touchdowns (20) on the ground. Alvin Kamara‘s managers should hold him. New Orleans is better running the football but is only 18th in run rate (43.7%). They may increase their attempts on the ground and Kamara also leads the team in targets (53). He is averaging 4.2 yards per attempt with six scores.

The focal point of the WR group in New Orleans is Chris Olave. Managers should be listening to offers for him. His inconsistency and inability to get in the end zone have him pacing well behind his preseason average draft position (ADP).

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have major offensive issues. Their point differential over their first seven games is -76 and they have won only once this season. They enter Week 9 ranked 32nd in EPA/play (-0.27).

Tennessee has been horrific through the air. Their EPA/pass (-0.4) is dead last in the NFL, yet the team is throwing on nearly 56.0% of its plays. Will Levis is an outlier with how poor his EPA (-64.5) has been and the Titans are 31st in passing yardage per game (161.9). Levis is seeing a ton of pressure with Tennessee carrying the second-highest QB pressure rate in the league (43.1%). It is clear the better option is running the ball. If this team is serious about winning in 2024, they will shift in that direction.

Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd command the majority of targets for the Titans’ offense. Unfortunately for their managers, these players are almost unusable with a combined 500 receiving yards and one touchdown. With the struggles of this passing attack, boom-or-bust options off the waiver wire are every bit as credible as a Titans WR.

The Titans’ EPA/rush (-0.1) is currently 25th. Tony Pollard is the only reason this category is not toward the bottom of the league like the others. Of his 494 rushing yards, 443 have come after contact. Pollard is salvaging 4.3 yards per attempt and three touchdowns out of this mess. He is the only trustworthy player in Tennessee for managers but is capped as a back-end Flex player when making fantasy start sit decisions.

Efficiency Statistics