With the NFL trade market heating up and players returning from early season injuries, offenses around the league are being impacted for better and for worse. This trickles down to fantasy football managers, especially as they prepare strategic moves in their lineups to push for the playoffs in the second half of their schedules.
Below is the week 8 review of NFL offensive pace & efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 8
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are coming off back-to-back victories, including a 28-3 rout of the Giants on Sunday. The Philadelphia offense has been more efficient over the past three games; they are now eighth in EPA/play (0.02) in the NFL.
The Eagles have an exceptional run game, and they know it. The Birds are running at the fourth-highest rate in the league (51.3%) and are second overall in EPA/ rush (0.12). There is little for Saquon Barkley‘s managers to worry about, his 108 attempts on the season dwarf the totals of his teammates. Barkley is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and has scored five touchdowns. He is one of the most reliable fantasy RBs available.
Jalen Hurts has impacted fantasy lineups with his legs scoring four touchdowns, but he is turning the ball over. His six fumbles are cutting into his production and hurting the efficiency of this offense. However, if Hurts reigns this in, he is poised for a strong fantasy football finish. The Eagles are elite in total rush EPA (23.5) on the season and production will come for their ball-carriers.
Philadelphia is only 19th in EPA/pass (-0.09), but they were missing star WRs AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith for multiple games early this season. With both healthy, the Eagles can address their issue of getting the ball out quickly. Jalen Hurts is third-slowest in the NFL in time to throw (3.08), but he should cut into that with Brown and Smith creating more separation on the exterior. Smith and Dallas Goedert are good buy-low targets as this Eagles’ passing game has its best days in front of it. AJ Brown leads all WRs in fantasy points per game this season and should be held tightly by his managers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers improved to 5-2 on Sunday night and have quietly claimed the second-best point differential (+60) in the NFL through seven games. They jumped from 17th to 12th in EPA/play (-0.02) between weeks 6 and 7, their first game starting Russell Wilson at QB.
Pittsburgh throws at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (46.8%), but Russell Wilson propelled them into the top 10 in EPA/pass (0.01) last week throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith may be more inclined to throw with Wilson as the starter. Historically he is efficient with a career completion percentage of 64.4% and he has thrown over three touchdowns to every interception since 2012. George Pickens could be looking at a fantasy revival, he leads the team in targets (51), receptions (31) and yardage (474). Pickens also carries a deep average depth of target (13.5), which pairs well with Wilson’s ability to throw the ball downfield. Pat Freiermuth would be the other pass-catcher for fantasy managers to watch over the next few games, he is second in all receiving categories to Pickens and leads the team in receiving touchdowns (2).
The running game in Pittsburgh is average concerning efficiency; it is currently 16th in EPA/run (-0.04). The introduction of Wilson should reduce the volume needed from the running game and boost its effectiveness. Najee Harris owns this backfield, he leads the team in attempts (117) and yardage (478) and is ahead of his career mark in yards per attempt (4.1). Harris has eclipsed 100 yards and scored in his last two games. As a volume RB performing well, Harris could yield valuable assets in the trade market.
With a new starting QB, the Steelers are an offense to observe. They have turned the ball over only four times this season and both Pickens and Harris could see substantial usage through the end of 2024.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ offense is off to a torrid start this season. This unit is averaging over 460 yards a game, is second in the NFL in EPA/play (0.19) and converts in the red zone at a rate of 75.9%.
To say the Ravens are throwing the ball efficiently would be an understatement. After week 7, they are throwing at the lowest rate in the league (46.5%) but lead the NFL in passing yards per play (8.4), are third in throwing touchdowns (15) and rank fifth in passing yardage per game (250.6). This has returned the best EPA/pass (0.29) in the league and Lamar Jackson is on pace to set a career high in completion percentage (68.2%) while throwing 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions in the first seven games.
Now is the time for fantasy managers to acquire players from the Ravens pass-catching group with its low-volume usage. Zay Flowers is the team leader in targets (45), receptions (34) and yardage (412), but Rashod Bateman is not far off. Bateman trails Flowers by only seven and a half fantasy points in point-per-reception formats and is rostered in only 17% of ESPN leagues. Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews have produced similarly from the TE spot. Andrews has scored three touchdowns in the past two games on only eight targets. His second half could differentiate his managers’ lineups significantly against their competition.
Derrick Henry is the king of the Ravens’ backfield, and will continue to be barring injury. He has over 800 rushing yards with eight touchdowns. The Ravens are third overall in EPA/run (0.1), lead the NFL in rushing yards per play (6.2) and have logged 40 runs over 10 yards. Do not shop Henry.
Offenses Trending Down
New York Giants
The Giants have lost consecutive games scoring only 10 points in the aggregate. New York’s EPA/play has retreated to 26th overall and they are averaging only 14.1 points per game this season.
The Giants’ passing game has fallen off noticeably over the past two weeks. It finished week 5 12th overall in EPA/pass (-0.01) and now ranks 25th (-0.17). The season-ending injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas looks to be affecting their ability to throw. Daniel Jones is seeing significant pressure with the Giants allowing 22 sacks thus far, the third-highest total in the NFL. This has dropped this offense’s adjusted net yards per attempt (4.66) to 26th overall.
These trends are headwinds for managers of Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson, who are the target, reception and touchdown leaders on the team. Nabers should be shopped in leagues that are not dynasty or keeper formats. He is the most reliable fantasy player on this offense in its current state, but the ceiling for his season could be sinking by the week.
New York is even less efficient on the ground, they are 29th overall in EPA/run (-0.15). The Giants may need more diversity in the run-game, nearly 70% of their running plays are between the tackles. Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy is an interesting addition if available off the waiver wire. He is averaging 4.4 yards per attempt and has 14 catches averaging 7.7 yards on each of them.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals offense is respectable, but in the last two weeks, it has been less effective. They have moved from fifth overall to eighth in EPA/play (0.02) since week 5.
The falloff in production for Cincinnati is coming from the passing game. This team elects to throw on the majority of its plays (60.8%) but its EPA/pass (0.09) has shrunk by nearly 50% in its last two games. Joe Burrow‘s attempts were down against the Browns and the Giants, and two of Cincinnati’s lowest point totals (21,17) followed. The Bengals need to increase their pace and up the volume for their franchise QB. There is no reason to panic for managers of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but this situation is worth monitoring when setting a lineup. If this offense continues to sputter, more boom or bust plays in fantasy lineups need to accompany Chase and Higgins.
The running game is the weaker spot for the Bengals. This offense claims the 24th-best EPA/run (-0.09) in the NFL. This backfield is as even as it gets concerning fantasy production. Both Chase Brown and Zach Moss have carried the ball and been used in the passing game. Brown is likely to receive more carries if the Bengals go to the ground more to open things up for Burrow to throw. He is averaging five yards per carry and has outgained Moss by nearly 100 yards on three fewer carries.
Los Angeles Rams
Throw the Rams into the “uncharacteristic offensive season” category with the Dolphins. Los Angeles is 2-4, in last place in the NFC West and is 21st in EPA/play (-0.1).
The Rams are struggling through the air. They have thrown only three touchdowns on the season, which ties them for dead last across the NFL. This team has simply not had enough opportunities in 2024 to pace with their opponents. They have run 367 plays, which ranks 29th in the league. Injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have not helped, but the future is not looking bright with rumours of Kupp and potentially Matthew Stafford being traded. If the Rams pivot to a rebuild, this passing game must be abandoned by fantasy managers. Jimmy Garoppolo would be set to take over with Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson and Colby Parkinson as his main targets.
The one fantasy bright spot with the Rams is Kyren Williams. He is the fantasy RB5 in point-per-reception formats with over 400 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. The Rams are tied for the ninth-best EPA/run (0) in the league and are second in success rate (49.7%). The running game has been more consequential for the Rams and its volume would likely increase if this roster gets blown up.
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-7)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Washington Commanders | 31.1 | 384.1 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 56.2% | 7.62 | 16 | 29.4% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 31.1 | 461.4 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.1 | 75.9% | 9.44 | 9 | 30.2% | 6 |
| Detroit Lions | 30.3 | 411.8 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 58.3% | 8.22 | 14 | 34.3% | 5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 28.4 | 321 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 67.9% | 8.32 | 9 | 33.9% | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29.9 | 383.4 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 64.3% | 7.02 | 20 | 26.6% | 9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 25.7 | 404.3 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0 | 45.2% | 7.16 | 14 | 37.2% | 11 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24.3 | 350.3 | 0.03 | -0.04 | 0.1 | 47.8% | 5.5 | 11 | 27.7% | 10 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22.3 | 362.2 | 0.02 | -0.09 | 0.12 | 52.4% | 5.93 | 19 | 36.2% | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25.4 | 331.7 | 0.02 | 0.09 | -0.09 | 66.7% | 7.59 | 18 | 26.5% | 6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 26.6 | 383.1 | 0 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 54.2% | 7.04 | 11 | 31.8% | 11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23.3 | 370.7 | 0 | 0.05 | -0.07 | 50.0% | 6.39 | 13 | 36.0% | 10 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 | 314.1 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.04 | 54.2% | 6.55 | 17 | 39.6% | 4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 21.4 | 331.3 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0 | 57.9% | 6.34 | 11 | 26.9% | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 25.7 | 368.3 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 62.5% | 5.95 | 20 | 36.2% | 10 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 28 | 333.2 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.05 | 68.8% | 7.05 | 19 | 37.2% | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20.7 | 325.9 | -0.05 | -0.09 | 0 | 50.0% | 6.14 | 17 | 26.8% | 7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 22.1 | 329.3 | -0.06 | -0.07 | -0.05 | 54.2% | 6.04 | 10 | 33.9% | 9 |
| Houston Texans | 23.6 | 349.7 | -0.06 | 0 | -0.13 | 70.0% | 6.11 | 21 | 38.6% | 7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 25.3 | 312.9 | -0.08 | -0.16 | 0.01 | 69.6% | 5.65 | 16 | 37.2% | 11 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 17.7 | 300 | -0.08 | -0.03 | -0.14 | 38.5% | 6.5 | 16 | 39.6% | 4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 19 | 313.2 | -0.1 | -0.16 | 0 | 47.8% | 5.36 | 17 | 32.9% | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 24.7 | 301.5 | -0.1 | -0.11 | -0.07 | 70.6% | 5.18 | 20 | 36.2% | 7 |
| New York Jets | 18.3 | 307 | -0.1 | -0.07 | -0.17 | 55.0% | 5.26 | 17 | 25.2% | 9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 336.5 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.08 | 37.5% | 5.52 | 16 | 29.5% | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | 20.7 | 294 | -0.15 | -0.26 | -0.01 | 52.4% | 4.57 | 9 | 30.0% | 10 |
| New York Giants | 14.1 | 290.7 | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.15 | 42.1% | 4.66 | 22 | 34.9% | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 14.1 | 262.9 | -0.22 | -0.29 | -0.12 | 43.8% | 4.49 | 25 | 46.5% | 8 |
| Cleveland Browns | 15.6 | 253.9 | -0.24 | -0.33 | -0.06 | 72.7% | 3.53 | 35 | 38.4% | 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 15.7 | 281.6 | -0.25 | -0.37 | -0.07 | 56.2% | 3.93 | 14 | 29.8% | 12 |
| Tennessee Titans | 17.7 | 259.2 | -0.26 | -0.39 | -0.09 | 56.2% | 3.16 | 19 | 43.9% | 12 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 17.7 | 296.7 | -0.26 | -0.23 | -0.31 | 58.8% | 4.16 | 20 | 37.1% | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11.7 | 308.2 | -0.28 | -0.29 | -0.27 | 35.7% | 4.67 | 18 | 28.9% | 8 |
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