Week 6 featured dominant offensive performances from familiar faces. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers all look to be in mid-season form. On the other hand, the 2024 season includes teams searching for consistency. Each week we dive into the good and bad offensive trends across the NFL.
Below is the Week 7 review of NFL offensive pace and efficiency including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 6
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have been resurgent in their ability to move the ball efficiently since Week 4. Through six games, Tampa Bay is third in the NFL in scoring (29.7) and is seventh in EPA/play (0.05).
Tampa Bay prefers to pass first, but they are more efficient offense on the ground. The Bucs are a top-10 team in rush yards per game (136.8), rush yards per play (5.3), EPA/rush (0.07), 10-plus yard runs (27) and rushing success rate (43.2%).
Rookie running back Bucky Irving leads the team in attempts (58) after Rachaad White did not play in Week 6 with a foot injury. Irving has been more valuable than White carrying the ball, out gaining him per attempt (5.7) and leading him in total rush EPA (0.4) by a wide margin. White’s status must be monitored in forecasting Irving’s usage ahead of Week 7, but the rookie may be forcing his coaching staff’s hand. He is just as viable as White in the passing game and looks more explosive with nine runs of 10-plus yards against only four from White. Sean Tucker did pop up with 14 carries this past week, but this was a product of game script in a blowout win for Tampa Bay. Irving is the running back for managers to target.
The Bucs provide plenty of fantasy value through the air as well. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown throws (15) with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin tied for the league lead in touchdown catches (5). Evans and Godwin are holds for managers unless there is a vital need in another slot. With health, they should both finish as top-10 fantasy WRs.
Green Bay Packers
The recent surge in Green Bay has come through the air. From Weeks 5 to 6, the Packers moved from 18th to ninth in the NFL in EPA/pass (0.03). The Packers are now fourth in the NFL in yards per game (400.8).
Jordan Love‘s completion percentage has not been great (58.9%), but he is still finding the end zone. His 12 touchdown throws tie him for second among all quarterbacks. In his first season as a starter in 2023, his completion percentage was 64.5%. Love has a monster fantasy ceiling on arm talent alone if his completion percentage comes up. He is an interesting trade target coming off an injury and has thrown for at least two touchdowns each time he has played this season.
The pass-catching group for the Packers is deep, but Jayden Reed is the alpha. Reed leads the Packers in targets (34) and is incredibly efficient with his chances carrying a reception rate of 79.4%. Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson all offer value as spot starts, but their opportunities will be split up. Matchups and availability will be key in deploying them in lineups. Tucker Kraft has ascended nicely at tight end, he is currently eighth at his position in receiving yardage (231) and tied for second in touchdowns (3).
The Packers are running at the fourth-highest rate in the league (51.3%) and are second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (167.2). Josh Jacobs will hoard the carries for this team but will need to find the end zone to improve for his managers. He is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (464) but has scored only once. If that trend continues, he is a nice asset to test in trade markets.
Chicago Bears
The Bears’ offense is headed in the right direction after scoring well into the 30s in consecutive games. Chicago is now 12th in the NFL in points per game (24.7).
Caleb Williams has been much more efficient recently. After Week 3, Chicago was 31st in the NFL in EPA/pass (-0.39) and they are now 21st (-0.1). Williams has completed at least 69% of his throws in each of the past three games and thrown only one interception. The sharper quarterback play has opened things up for this receiving unit, which includes DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet. Moore leads the team in targets (45) and receiving yards (314), and looks to be the most trustworthy for fantasy managers. Kmet is an interesting option at tight end, he is tied with Moore for the team lead with three touchdown catches and carries a reception rate of 89.7%.
Chicago has struggled on the ground this year, but their EPA/run (-0.07) has improved in the past three games. D’Andre Swift is the top option in Chicago at running back with 91 attempts on the season. Swift needs volume to remain effective as a runner with the Bears coming in at 30th in yards per rushing play (3.7). Nonetheless, Swift is useful for fantasy managers with his role in the passing game. He has received 22 targets on the year and logged 193 receiving yards which has made him the fantasy RB9 in point-per-reception formats.
The Bears are a team to monitor for fantasy managers as the season develops. If they can find more consistency in the run game, it should help them reach the red zone more often where they are converting touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (70.6%).
Offenses Trending Down
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys dropped to 3-3 after a blowout loss at home against the Lions in Week 6. Dallas fell from 15th to 25th (-0.13) overall in EPA/play after scoring only nine points against Detroit.
The Cowboys are throwing at the second-highest rate (65.6%) in the NFL through six games. The problem is they are inefficient through the air and finished Week 6 at 25th in EPA/pass (-0.16). The inefficiency stems from Dak Prescott‘s interceptions, sacks and a lack of separation from this Dallas receiving group. Prescott has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 16 times, the seventh most across the NFL this season. The Cowboys’ average target separation (2.9) is the second-lowest in the league.
Prescott needs help from someone other than CeeDee Lamb on the outside, and the Cowboys need to improve in protection to replicate their offense from this past season. Lamb should be fine in fantasy lineups moving forward and both Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson are worth rostering due to the massive throwing volume from this team. Prescott must clean it up for this unit to make any noise though, his completion percentage (62.9%) is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2017.
With so few rushing attempts, it’s no surprise the Cowboys are dead last in the league in rushing yards per game (77.2). This makes using Rico Dowdle or Ezekiel Elliot risky for fantasy managers. The Cowboys are 25th in EPA/rush (-0.08) and have scored on the grounded only twice this season.
Cleveland Browns
It’s going to be a long year in Cleveland on offense. The Browns are 32nd in total yards per game (240.2) and traded their best receiver, Amari Cooper, to the Buffalo Bills this week.
Perhaps the biggest issue for this offense is protection. The Browns have allowed an NFL-leading 31 sacks through six games. For reference, the second-highest sack total belongs to the Patriots with 23. The gap between Cleveland and the field here is alarming, and if this offensive line does not improve, Deshaun Watson‘s adjusted net yards per attempt may only drop from 3.56.
The Browns are 29th in EPA/pass (-0.24) making Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore scary for fantasy managers. Jeudy has the most upside in flex slots as the new target leader after the departure of Cooper. However, managers should steer clear of this passing attack unless something changes, Watson is the worst-qualified QB across the NFL in total EPA (-73.3).
Cleveland is much better on the ground with an EPA/run of -0.07. Jerome Ford is the team leader in rushing attempts (50) but is not an anchor running back for fantasy managers. He is on pace for 750 rushing yards and has scored only once. With Nick Chubb recovering, it is hard to find fantasy value anywhere with this offense as is.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders fell to the Steelers this past week and now sit at 2-4 on the season. Las Vegas traded star receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets earlier this week and are 28th overall in EPA/play (-0.23).
The running game in Las Vegas is about as bad as it gets. Their EPA/run (-0.37) is the worst in the league by a significant margin. Neither Zamir White nor Alexander Mattison have been able to get it going with both under 3.5 yards per attempt. The Raiders are also stuffed at the fourth-highest rate (21.1%) in the NFL so this running attack could be a lost cause. Managers are better off starting a RB from the waiver wire than trying to lean on White or Mattison.
The Raiders passing game has its own headwinds. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell have thrown a combined seven interceptions and have spawned the 26th-ranked EPA/pass (-0.16). Las Vegas has also allowed 18 sacks, hampering its ability to move the ball consistently. Brock Bowers is a valuable asset at tight end for his managers, he should be held considering the depth of the position and carries a reception rate of 80.4%. Jakboi Meyers would be the other fantasy asset to keep stashed on benches. Meyers will be the new target leader on the exterior and the Raiders are throwing on 64.2% of their plays.
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-6)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Washington Commanders | 29.7 | 378 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 57.7% | 7.36 | 15 | 30.9% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 29.5 | 453.7 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 75.0% | 8.7 | 7 | 31.0% | 5 |
| Detroit Lions | 30.2 | 416 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 56.5% | 7.92 | 10 | 31.4% | 4 |
| Buffalo Bills | 27.5 | 309.7 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 68.2% | 7.89 | 8 | 32.8% | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 27 | 420 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0 | 44.4% | 7.94 | 13 | 38.4% | 8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26.2 | 349.8 | 0.07 | 0.13 | -0.03 | 64.7% | 7.63 | 15 | 25.3% | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29.7 | 367.2 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 65.2% | 7.07 | 17 | 27.9% | 7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23.6 | 354.6 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.09 | 38.9% | 6.12 | 9 | 26.5% | 8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 27 | 400.8 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 50.0% | 7.48 | 8 | 32.0% | 8 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 24.8 | 368.3 | 0.02 | 0.1 | -0.09 | 45.5% | 6.8 | 10 | 33.8% | 7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 21.2 | 366.8 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 44.4% | 6.1 | 14 | 35.3% | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | 27.8 | 319.8 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 71.4% | 5.98 | 10 | 36.1% | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 23.2 | 336.8 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.01 | 57.1% | 6.12 | 10 | 30.1% | 8 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 22.2 | 332.2 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 58.8% | 6.59 | 11 | 26.3% | 8 |
| Houston Texans | 23.8 | 375.2 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.16 | 75.0% | 6.52 | 17 | 37.5% | 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 24.3 | 373.2 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 64.3% | 5.59 | 19 | 34.4% | 10 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 20.7 | 298.3 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 50.0% | 5.97 | 16 | 39.2% | 4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 18.8 | 324 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 45.0% | 5.51 | 16 | 33.3% | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 27.8 | 323.2 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.1 | 68.8% | 7.05 | 15 | 37.9% | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 18.8 | 319.5 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 0 | 47.6% | 5.73 | 17 | 28.0% | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | 24.7 | 301.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.07 | 70.6% | 5.18 | 20 | 36.2% | 7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 18.2 | 281 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.14 | 41.7% | 6.05 | 12 | 42.7% | 2 |
| New York Jets | 18.8 | 304.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.16 | 52.9% | 5.3 | 16 | 26.0% | 7 |
| New York Giants | 16 | 319.3 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.16 | 44.4% | 5.22 | 14 | 34.4% | 8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 336.5 | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.08 | 37.5% | 5.52 | 16 | 29.5% | 11 |
| Denver Broncos | 18.7 | 278.2 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.04 | 50.0% | 4.35 | 9 | 31.4% | 9 |
| Carolina Panthers | 17.2 | 298.5 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.06 | 53.3% | 4.31 | 12 | 28.6% | 10 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 18.2 | 293.3 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.37 | 66.7% | 4.73 | 18 | 35.4% | 12 |
| Cleveland Browns | 15.8 | 240.2 | -0.24 | -0.24 | -0.07 | 66.7% | 3.56 | 31 | 40.6% | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 19.2 | 253.2 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 0 | 61.5% | 2.91 | 16 | 41.8% | 10 |
| New England Patriots | 13.8 | 257.5 | -0.26 | -0.26 | -0.12 | 35.7% | 3.87 | 23 | 48.1% | 8 |
| Miami Dolphins | 12 | 302.4 | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.24 | 36.4% | 4.45 | 16 | 26.9% | 6 |
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