The NFL regular season is now a quarter complete. As offensive identities are established, fantasy managers must monitor the player pool as the season evolves. Being on the right side of efficiency surges and declines can define the trajectory of a fantasy lineup. It also shrinks the number of players to target in waiver and trade markets.
Below is the Week 6 review of NFL offensive pace & efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down, and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 6
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table below is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
Atlanta Falcons
After plenty of anticipation, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons’ offense broke out last Thursday night. Atlanta jumped from outside the top 20 in EPA/play (-0.1) to 12th overall (-0.01) in Week 5.
The Falcons scored 36 points against their divisional rival Buccaneers on the arm of Kirk Cousins. The veteran logged a colossal 509 yards through the air, going 42 of 58 for a completion percentage of 72.4%, which brought the Falcons’ EPA/pass (0.09) from 16th overall up to seventh.
With Atlanta throwing at the fifth-highest rate in the league (63.5%), Drake London managers must be cautious with trade offers. He is the WR8 in half-PPR scoring and is unlikely to leave the top 10 if Atlanta continues to lean on the passing game that helped it find its footing last week. The other target leaders on the team, Darnell Mooney (39), Ray-Ray McCloud (28), and Kyle Pitts (22) will also benefit from this type of throwing volume; both WRs are options for flex starts and trade packages, while Pitts has a chance to salvage his season at TE. Atlanta finished Week 5 at sixth overall in passing yardage per game (260.6).
However, the Falcons EPA/run (-0.2) is a different story, currently sitting at 28th overall. Bijan Robinson commanded a ton of fantasy draft capital in the preseason and has not popped for managers. Offers for Robinson should be considered, with the Falcons having only one rushing touchdown in five games. His opportunities will be limited with Atlanta running the ball on only 36.5% of plays.
Indianapolis Colts
Despite losing to the Jaguars on Sunday, the Colts offense is showing signs of health. Indianapolis is now a top 10 team in EPA/play (0) with another chance to improve against the Titans in week 6.
The efficiency of this offense comes from their ability to run the ball. The Colts are in the top 10 in both yards before contact per attempt (2.08) and rush yards per play (5.0). This offensive line is creating gaps for Jonathan Taylor and he has plenty of time to make his reads. Taylor is still the fantasy RB11 despite missing Week 5. He has scored four rushing touchdowns and should be considered an anchor RB for the rest of the season barring injury. The Colts’ EPA/run (0.06) is the sixth-best in the NFL.
Joe Flacco has given this passing attack life in the game and a half he has played this season. After Anthony Richardson struggled with accuracy, Flacco has thrown five touchdowns against zero interceptions and carries a top 10 completion percentage (70.0%) on 70 attempts. While Flacco’s sample is smaller than most starting QBs, there is no question that Colts’ ability to throw has improved with him in there. Indianapolis’ EPA/pass has jumped from 23rd to 15th (-0.04) in the past two weeks.
Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce have accounted for most of the production at the wide receiver position in Indy. They will be more viable in fantasy lineups with Flacco as the starter, along with Josh Downs, who received 12 targets last week. Pittman could now be heading to IR with a back injury, boosting the stock of Pierce and Downs. However, the QB situation must be monitored if these players are to be used in fantasy lineups.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars’ offense has struggled to start the year, but Week 5 was a notable step in the right direction. Jacksonville gained 497 total yards, with a balanced offensive attack, and scored 37 points.
The Jags are on to something with Tank Bigsby as their lead RB. In the last two games, Bigsby passed Travis Etienne in rushing yardage (272), matched him in rushing touchdowns (2), and nearly doubled him up in yards per carry (8.0). The Jags are 25th in run rate (38.5%) but are second in rushing yards per play (5.7). Doug Pederson may implement the run game more with this trend, and Bigsby is the most likely focal point. The second-year RB is rostered in only 38.4% of ESPN fantasy leagues and should be added if available.
Trevor Lawrence had his best game of the season last week, going 28 of 34 (82.4%) and throwing two touchdowns. The Jacksonville EPA/pass (-0.17) still has room for improvement, sitting at 25th in the league, but Lawrence proved he can produce with his arm in this offense. After Week 5, Jacksonville jumped from 28th to 15th overall in total yards per game (327.8), much of which was from the 371 yards from Lawrence through the air against the Colts. Brian Thomas is continuing his stellar rookie year and should be held tightly by managers, particularly in dynasty formats. The Jaguars are doing well limiting QB pressure and turnovers. If these trends hold up with Lawrence throwing the ball well, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis will become fantasy-relevant.
Offenses Trending Down
New Orleans Saints
After a white-hot start, the Saints have not replicated their early offensive production in recent weeks. New Orleans has watched their points per game (28) and EPA/play (0.06) shrink consistently since Week 2 and Derek Carr now has a torn oblique.
The Saints utilized an efficient passing game and a high-volume running game in the first two weeks. The passing game has lost much of that efficiency due to an increase in QB pressure rate (37.0%) and Derek Carr throwing interceptions in each of the last four games. New Orleans’s EPA/pass (0.09) has shrunk by over 68% since Week 2.
These trends will not blend well with backup QB Spencer Rattler. Chris Olave‘s inconsistency will be amplified with Rattler under center; if managers have an offer they like for Olave, it should be seriously considered. Rashid Shaheed will continue to serve as a potential spike week flex start with his ability to win down the field, but Rattler must accurately deliver to ball deep. This pass-catching group is hard to trust until Carr is ready to return.
The running game has been more consistent for the Saints and they are likely to go to the ground even more now with the introduction of Rattler. The Saints are already fifth overall in run rate (52.0%) with Alvin Kamara‘s workload due to increase, making him a hold for managers.
New York Jets
After Week 3, the Jets’ offense was heading in the right direction. Over the past two games, New York has scored 28 points total, including a nine point outing against the Broncos in Week 4. Head Coach Robert Saleh was fired this week after the Week 5 loss in London.
The Jets throw the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL (64.2%). The issue is that Aaron Rodgers‘ completion percentage is on pace to be one of the worst of his career (61%). The QB pressure rate (27.8%) and sacks allowed (13) are above average for the Jets. They are, however, 25th in the NFL in separation per target (3.4), and Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard will need help from the new scheme post-Saleh to get open and help Rodgers complete more passes. New York has fallen from fifth overall to 21st in EPA/pass (-0.18) since Week 3.
Efficiency-wise, the run game has been even worse all season for the Jets. They have fallen to 27th in the NFL in EPA/run (-0.18). The lack of volume is severely costing Breece Hall in fantasy football. The Jets are gaining only 80.4 rushing yards per game, which is dead-last across the league. Hall will still have value in the passing game, but the lack of explosive runs will hinder him from getting anywhere near his preseason ADP.
Carolina Panthers
Andy Dalton gave the Carolina offense CPR back in Week 3, but this unit has crashed down after a brief honeymoon stage. The Panthers are negative across the board in EPA categories, with their EPA/pass (-0.32) sitting in the bottom five league-wide.
Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette managers had a glimmer of hope that vanished after the Week 5 loss to the Bears. Carolina managed only 172 yards through the air from both Dalton and Bryce Young. Dalton is 31st in the NFL in time to throw (2.45) and 26th in yards per attempt (6.4). He must get the ball out quicker and his WRs need to create more separation, but Dalton has been turnover-happy as well. He has fumbled twice and thrown a pair of interceptions, accounting for half of the eight turnovers from the team this year. That is a top five total in the NFL.
The Panthers need to introduce more running to their game plan, especially considering how difficult it has been to extend drives. They have converted only 17 of 60 third downs this season. Carolina is significantly better playing through Chuba Hubbard, with him averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. He is the safest fantasy play on this team.
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-5)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Washington Commanders | 31 | 392.6 | 0.21 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 56.5% | 7.27 | 12 | 29.2% | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 29.4 | 447.6 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 75.0% | 8.44 | 5 | 29.4% | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 26 | 397 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 55.6% | 6.94 | 7 | 30.7% | 4 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 28 | 359 | 0.09 | 0.17 | -0.04 | 68.8% | 7.96 | 11 | 21.5% | 5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 28.4 | 299.8 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 66.7% | 7.63 | 6 | 32.7% | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | 323.2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 76.5% | 6.81 | 5 | 37.0% | 6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23.6 | 354.6 | 0.04 | 0 | 0.09 | 38.9% | 6.12 | 9 | 26.5% | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 25.2 | 407.4 | 0.04 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 40.9% | 7.39 | 13 | 36.6% | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25.4 | 321.8 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 61.1% | 7.07 | 16 | 29.1% | 4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 23.8 | 350.4 | 0 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 61.1% | 6.43 | 10 | 31.1% | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | 338 | 0 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 64.3% | 6.43 | 11 | 27.8% | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 22.2 | 357.4 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.2 | 42.9% | 6.59 | 10 | 33.9% | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 21.5 | 365.5 | -0.02 | -0.11 | 0.09 | 47.1% | 5.15 | 13 | 34.0% | 8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 24.4 | 376.2 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.05 | 63.6% | 5.87 | 18 | 33.6% | 7 |
| Green Bay Packers | 25.6 | 376.6 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 50.0% | 7.14 | 8 | 31.5% | 7 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 23.4 | 353.6 | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.07 | 46.2% | 6.5 | 12 | 26.3% | 6 |
| Houston Texans | 20.4 | 376.6 | -0.04 | 0.08 | -0.23 | 69.2% | 6.67 | 15 | 37.0% | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 27.8 | 323.3 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 68.8% | 7.05 | 15 | 37.9% | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 18.8 | 324.4 | -0.06 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 45.0% | 5.51 | 16 | 33.3% | 6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 18.4 | 299.4 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.1 | 50.0% | 6.31 | 13 | 35.2% | 4 |
| New York Giants | 17.8 | 321.4 | -0.1 | -0.01 | -0.22 | 43.8% | 5.63 | 12 | 35.2% | 7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 19.4 | 327.8 | -0.1 | -0.17 | 0.02 | 44.4% | 5.86 | 13 | 27.5% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 22.6 | 287.2 | -0.15 | -0.2 | -0.09 | 61.5% | 4.7 | 17 | 37.4% | 6 |
| New York Jets | 18.6 | 286.6 | -0.15 | -0.13 | -0.18 | 61.5% | 4.98 | 13 | 27.8% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 17 | 263.8 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.15 | 44.4% | 5.87 | 9 | 41.0% | 2 |
| Denver Broncos | 19.2 | 270.6 | -0.21 | -0.34 | -0.05 | 43.8% | 4.06 | 7 | 27.6% | 7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 16.6 | 291.2 | -0.22 | -0.32 | -0.06 | 50.0% | 4.27 | 12 | 28.3% | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 12.4 | 250.8 | -0.23 | -0.34 | -0.1 | 30.8% | 3.65 | 19 | 48.3% | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 19.2 | 297 | -0.24 | -0.18 | -0.33 | 66.7% | 4.74 | 17 | 37.2% | 9 |
| Cleveland Browns | 15.8 | 239.4 | -0.27 | -0.38 | -0.05 | 75.0% | 3.34 | 26 | 40.7% | 6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 12 | 302.4 | -0.28 | -0.31 | -0.24 | 36.4% | 4.45 | 16 | 26.9% | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 19.8 | 256.3 | -0.3 | -0.49 | -0.05 | 54.5% | 2.98 | 16 | 45.0% | 9 |
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