The NFL has provided some surprises on offense during the first four weeks. The Commanders and Vikings are beating expectations, and the Dolphins are in a free fall. Efficiency statistics can help managers cut through narratives surrounding teams that “should” be good or bad offensively.
Below is the Week 5 review of NFL offensive pace & efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down, and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 5
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table below is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals gave their fans a scare in Week 1, scoring only 10 points on 224 total yards. Heading into Week 5, they’re averaging 25.5 points per game on 338.3 yards per contest and have ascended to seventh overall in EPA/play (0.06).
Joe Burrow and this passing attack are set up for success. The offensive line in Cincinnati has performed well, allowing QB pressures on only 19.5% of snaps, which is unquestionably the lowest rate in the league. This has limited their sacks and kept Burrow’s adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) in the top-ten overall. A healthy Joe Burrow with this type of protection is a threat to be a top-five fantasy QB. His career completion percentage is 68.1%, which is higher than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Josh Allen. He has thrown seven touchdowns on the season against just one interception.
The Bengals’ skill players are on the upswing, with the team’s redzone conversion rate climbing steadily in the past three weeks. Unsurprisingly, Ja’Marr Chase leads the team in targets (23), followed by Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, and Tee Higgins. Chase is an anchor WR in lineups for his fantasy managers, and for those with a surplus at RB and who need a WR, Chase is worth buying for big assets, especially considering the outlook. Managers can expect Gesicki and Higgins to be viable at TE and in flex spots; the Bengals EPA/pass (0.07) is their best among EPA statistics. Zach Moss sticks out in this backfield, with 15 targets in the passing game this season which he converted for 12 receptions and an average of eight yards per catch.
Seattle Seahawks
Although the Seahawks lost Monday night, they showed they can play in a shootout if they need to. Seattle has improved in EPA/play during each of the last two weeks; they’re fifth in yards per game (387) and ninth overall in points per game (25.5) through the first four matchups.
The Seahawks throw on 64.4% of their plays and now lead the NFL in passing yardage (1,123). This polarized style of attack is surprising from Seattle, but it bodes well for Geno Smith‘s managers. Geno has an elite 72.1% completion percentage on an NFL-leading 159 attempts; the increased workload is not hurting his accuracy. DK Metcalf is on pace for over 1,500 receiving yards, catching 24 of his team-leading 35 targets. He is Geno’s favorite weapon and has a shot at his best season yet. Jaxon Smith-Njigba screams efficiency from the slot. The second-year WR trails Metcalf by only two targets (33) and has a catch rate of 75.8%, and JSN has breakout potential as the season progresses.
While the Seahawks’ running game has low volume, it is their more efficient method of moving the ball and their EPA/run (0.01) is tied for eleventh in the NFL. In only two games, Kenneth Walker has averaged 5.7 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns. As long as Walker is on the field, he will be a fantasy star.
This offense is in the middle of the NFL in QB pressure rate (33.1%) and sacks allowed (11), but the fantasy production could explode with some improvement from the offensive line this season.
San Francisco 49ers
The start of the 2024 season is a testament to the offensive culture that Kyle Shanahan has built in San Francisco. Despite injuries to many of their skill players, the 49ers are still showing signs of elite offensive efficiency and are sitting at sixth overall in EPA/play (0.07).
Somehow, Brock Purdy‘s efficiency scares people into believing he is overrated. San Francisco is third in EPA/pass (0.18) and second in ANY/A (8.24) despite allowing 11 sacks on a top-five QB pressure rate (39.3%). Purdy is getting his money’s worth on his throws and leads the NFL in yards per attempt with 9.3. This has pushed him to second overall in throwing yardage (1,130), but he is only 16th in attempts. There should be no concerns for fantasy managers with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, even with them all underperforming relative to their ADPs. In fact, these are all buy-low guys at this stage of the season; once the 49ers reign in the protection, the fantasy output for all three should return to what managers have grown accustomed.
That being said, with Christian McCaffrey on IR, the 49ers are down to 19th in EPA/run (-0.05) and 20th in total run EPA (-5.9). In 2023, this team finished second overall in both of these categories, however the running game has been less efficient and less consequential to scoring points with Jordan Mason as the lead RB. After a 2-2 start for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, Shanahan may lean more on Purdy’s arm than Mason if the team struggles in the coming weeks. Mason has filled in well for McCaffrey, but if this offense redefines itself, he will play a smaller role as 2024 unfolds. He is a sell-high candidate for his managers.
Offenses Trending Down
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ offense has backpedaled since Week 1. They have turned into a bottom-ten team in EPA/play (-0.15) and watched their averages in yards per game (263.8) and points per game (17) shrink.
The Bolts are running the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (53%), but it has been inefficient. Los Angeles is 25th in EPA/run (-0.15) and 30th in success rate (30.4%) on the ground. These are not good signs for a team reliant on its running game. Running the ball is not delivering what this team needs to be competitive and has put their offense on a glacial pace, running the 30th most plays (217) in four weeks. JK Dobbins is frozen for his managers, with opposing defenses keying in on the running attack, and he has not eclipsed three yards per carry in the last two games. Both Dobbins and Gus Edwards are risky fantasy starts for the time being, and their managers should be open to suitors for both in trade markets.
Justin Herbert has also been ineffective in throwing the ball this season, to say the least. He trails Deshaun Watson, Bo Nix, and Will Levis in passing yardage and the Chargers are 31st in passing yards per game (136) and 32nd in total first downs. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have salvaged two decent fantasy outings each, but consistency will be a major issue with what is going on for the Chargers offensively.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are 31st in both points per game (13) and total yardage per game (246.3) through four weeks. They have been particularly inefficient in throwing the ball with an EPA/pass of -0.35.
New England has a protection issue. They trail only the Browns in sacks allowed (17) and lead the NFL in QB pressure rate (47.4%). This is not allowing Jacoby Brissett to stretch the field; he is 30th among qualified QBs in yards per attempt (5.3). TE Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in targets and it is hard to see WRs DeMario Douglas or Ja’Lynn Polk as playable for fantasy managers. New England is also 30th in red zone conversion rate (36.4%), so any hope of a spike week in this pass-catching unit is limited.
The Patriots have been better on the ground, but they are still a bottom-ten team in EPA/run (-0.15). Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are making lemonade, and the Patriots are third-best in yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.82). However, their chances of breaking the second level seem slim, with only 12 runs of 10 yards or more this season in over 114 attempts. Stevenson looks to be the most reliable fantasy asset on the team, accounting for two of their four total offensive touchdowns.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos’ offense has struggled under head coach Sean Payton. They have been plagued with the third-most turnovers (7) in the NFL, four of which are interceptions by rookie QB Bo Nix.
The Broncos can’t throw. They are 31st in EPA/pass (-0.41), 27th in passing yardage per game (159.8), and have only one touchdown through the air. Nix doesn’t have the excuse of “no-time to throw” with the Broncos sitting at 16th overall in the category and allowing only four sacks. Even with the limited sacks, Nix has an ANY/A of 3.37. He must find a way to work the ball deeper or Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds could become fantasy-irrelevant in a hurry.
The running game has been more efficient in Denver, with an EPA/run of -0.15. The problem is Javonte Williams sits at 3.2 yards per attempt on an offense in the cellar in both third down conversion rate (24.6%) and red zone conversion rate (33.3%). Even leaning on their strength, there is not enough opportunity for Williams or Jaleel McLaughlin to score for their managers. Something needs to change in order for the Broncos skill players find their way back into fantasy lineups.
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-4)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | Sacks | QB Pressure % | Turnovers |
| Washington Commanders | 30.3 | 410 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 58.8% | 7.54 | 9 | 27.7% | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 30.5 | 413.3 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 73.3% | 8.46 | 5 | 28.9% | 2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26.5 | 387 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 71.4% | 7.89 | 4 | 26.2% | 3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 31.8 | 429.5 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 75.0% | 7.53 | 4 | 30.6% | 5 |
| Detroit Lions | 26 | 382.3 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 55.6% | 6.94 | 7 | 30.7% | 4 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 25.8 | 364.5 | 0.07 | 0.18 | -0.05 | 50.0% | 8.24 | 11 | 39.3% | 5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25.5 | 349 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 61.5% | 7.32 | 8 | 19.5% | 4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 29 | 397 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 66.7% | 8.15 | 11 | 37.1% | 7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23 | 328.3 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 45.5% | 5.92 | 7 | 24.1% | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | 330.8 | -0.01 | 0 | -0.01 | 72.7% | 6.73 | 10 | 29.5% | 4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 25.5 | 340.8 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 60.0% | 6.02 | 11 | 33.1% | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24.3 | 338.3 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 60.0% | 6.68 | 15 | 31.6% | 3 |
| Houston Texans | 19.8 | 317.8 | -0.02 | 0.07 | -0.17 | 72.7% | 6.39 | 14 | 35.6% | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 21.5 | 326.3 | -0.02 | -0.11 | 0.09 | 47.1% | 5.15 | 13 | 34.0% | 8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 26 | 365.5 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.02 | 46.7% | 7.2 | 6 | 32.4% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 18.8 | 294.8 | -0.05 | -0.11 | 0.04 | 41.2% | 5.88 | 13 | 31.9% | 4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21.3 | 319 | -0.05 | -0.14 | 0.03 | 61.5% | 5.58 | 6 | 32.5% | 6 |
| New York Jets | 19 | 296.8 | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.12 | 60.0% | 6.08 | 10 | 27.1% | 3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 24.3 | 333 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.06 | 55.6% | 6.49 | 10 | 26.2% | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 18.8 | 291 | -0.09 | -0.01 | -0.16 | 41.7% | 6.49 | 10 | 35.3% | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 18.8 | 288.8 | -0.1 | -0.04 | -0.19 | 40.0% | 5.81 | 6 | 34.1% | 5 |
| New York Giants | 15 | 256.3 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.21 | 50.0% | 5.14 | 9 | 35.0% | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 17 | 266 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.15 | 44.4% | 5.87 | 9 | 41.0% | 2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 18.3 | 285 | -0.18 | -0.24 | -0.1 | 60.0% | 4.55 | 8 | 24.7% | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 253 | -0.18 | -0.29 | 0.01 | 42.9% | 4.7 | 13 | 32.4% | 3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 19.5 | 309.3 | -0.22 | -0.1 | -0.42 | 70.0% | 5.34 | 14 | 35.7% | 6 |
| Cleveland Browns | 16.5 | 263.8 | -0.23 | -0.35 | 0 | 83.3% | 3.3 | 19 | 40.1% | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 19.3 | 305.8 | -0.24 | -0.32 | -0.12 | 55.6% | 3.46 | 16 | 38.0% | 6 |
| New England Patriots | 13 | 246.3 | -0.26 | -0.35 | -0.15 | 36.4% | 3.52 | 17 | 47.4% | 4 |
| Denver Broncos | 15.5 | 258.5 | -0.27 | -0.41 | -0.07 | 33.3% | 3.37 | 4 | 29.9% | 7 |
| Tennessee Titans | 19.8 | 312.5 | -0.3 | -0.49 | -0.05 | 54.5% | 2.98 | 16 | 45.0% | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11.3 | 238.8 | -0.32 | -0.35 | -0.27 | 33.3% | 4.57 | 13 | 28.7% | 4 |
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