Week 9’s most appealing game stacks are littered with high-salary studs. So, it’s pricey to stack them. Fortunately, there are appealing value options to sprinkle around the most attractive game stacks. In addition, gamers can build skinny stacks from the two highlighted games. The featured studs have two players from the first game stack as well as an underpriced running back. The values/punts have one of the quarterbacks from the two featured game stacks and a pair of bargain wideouts. Finally, a few player props from Sleeper and Underdog stood out as the most enticing in Week 9.
NFL Week 9 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Falcons vs. Cowboys
Spread/Total: ATL -2.5/52.0 Points
The Cowboys at the Falcons have the only game total above 50.0 this week. It's 3.0 points higher than the next closest contest, and the game's spread is slight. This is an obvious contest to stack. Nevertheless, it's also an outstanding game to stack.
According to RotoViz's pace app, since Week 5, Atlanta has played at the third-fastest pace, and Dallas was tied for the fourth-fastest pace. The game's pace should be mouthwatering.
The defenses are dreadful. According to Sumer Sports, the Cowboys are tied for the fourth-most Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per play, and the Falcons have allowed the 10th-most EPA per play. Additionally, per Pro Football Reference, Dallas has the second-worst scoring defense (28.3 points per game), and Atlanta's tied for the 13th-worst (24.4).
Bijan Robinson and CeeDee Lamb are my two favorite players from this game and a dreamy skinny-stack. They're featured among the core studs, so I'll get to them shortly.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts are also exciting exposure to the Falcons. Since Week 5, Atlanta's 61% situation-neutral pass rate is tied for the sixth-highest mark. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in that period, London had a 31.4% air-yard share, 24.0% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, 33.6% first-read percentage, 28 receptions (7.0 per game), 325 receiving yards (81.3 per game), 2.32 yards per route run, three touchdowns and two end zone targets.
Pitts is also in excellent form. Since Week 5, he's had a 19.9% air-yard share, 17.5% target share, 0.23 targets per route run, 11.8% first-read percentage, 21 receptions (5.25 per game), 314 receiving yards (78.5 per game), 2.71 yards per route run, two touchdowns and one end zone target. Pitts is behind Darnell Mooney in the pecking order, but the salary gap is too large, and Pitts is also a tight end.
The Cowboys were tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) since Week 5, and they had a 68% situation-neutral pass rate on 38 plays in their first game out of the bye in Week 8. The Falcons have coughed up the 10th-most DraftKings points per game and tied for the eighth-most FanDuel points yielded per game to quarterbacks this year. Dak Prescott can take advantage of this matchup.
Jake Ferguson should absorb most of the targets that are not directed at Lamb. Dallas's No. 2 pass-catching weapon has a decent matchup this week. Atlanta has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season.
Game: Seahawks vs. Rams
Spread/Total: LAR -2.0/48.5 Points
I've included this game stack in anticipation of DK Metcalf playing. If he's out, the Seahawks are riskier after faceplanting without their alpha wideout last week. Among 88 wideouts with at least 125 routes this year, Metcalf is seventh in air-yard share (43.0%), seventh in receiving yards per game (81.1), 23rd in yards per route run (2.16) and tied for 10th in end zone targets (six). Metcalf's vertical usage and juicy role in the red zone make him a blow-up candidate if he returns from his knee injury.
Noah Fant is intriguing cheap exposure to Seattle's pass-happy offense. The Rams have permitted the third-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends this season.
Kenneth Walker is the top stud from the Seahawks. Among 43 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Walker is sixth in explosive run percentage (8.1%) and second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.32). The third-year pro is slick and can rip off long runs. Moreover, Walker is setting new career highs in receptions per game (4.5) and receiving yards per game (32.2), insulating him from a bad game script derailing his DFS potential.
Kyren Williams was nearly featured as a core stud below, but Robinson edged him out for those honors. Still, Williams is an elite selection this week. LA's lead running back is a bell-cow in every sense.
This season, his 86% snap share is nine percent higher than the second-highest mark among running backs. Williams has also handled 82.2% of LA's backfield's rush attempts. Furthermore, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Williams has played 239 passing snaps and run 164 routes versus 18 and 10 for Ronnie Rivers and 10 and five for Blake Corum.
Williams has a massive ceiling and is a model of consistency, scoring at least one touchdown in every game this year and clearing 100 scrimmage yards four times in his previous five games, tallying 76 with two touchdowns in the outlier. Williams can reach his ceiling against a defense permitting the sixth-most DraftKings and the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this season.
Matthew Stafford is the triggerman in LA's offense, but he's featured below. So, I'll analyze him shortly. When Stafford takes to the air, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should be on the receiving end of his targets. In two partial games together this year, Kupp has 0.38 targets per route run, and Nacua has 0.37. The duo each played at least 60% of snaps in 12 contests together last year. The following table has their stats in the 2023 12-game sample via the data suite at Fantasy Points.
Kupp and Nacua had excellent underlying data and coexisted just fine. They're each superb one-off choices in skinny stacks or high-upside picks of a double stack with Stafford.
Core Studs
- Robinson is on fire. He's had at least 105 scrimmage yards and reached paydirt in three consecutive games. During that period, Robinson piled up 354 scrimmage yards, 13 receptions and four touchdowns. He's unlikely to slow down against the Cowboys. Per Sumer Sports, Dallas has allowed the most EPA per rush. The Cowboys have also yielded the fourth-most DraftKings and the second-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. The second-year pro should clown the Cowboys.
- Lamb was decent through Dallas's first six games this year. However, he was force-fed the ball out of the club's Week 7 bye. In Week 8, Lamb had 17 targets, 13 receptions, 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Last week, he was sixth in air yards (149) and first in target share (45.9%). Lamb's workload is mouthwatering, and he has a sweet matchup. The Falcons have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings and the 12th-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season. The lineup optimizer projects him as the WR1 at DraftKings and tied for the WR1 at FanDuel.
- D'Andre Swift is maddeningly inconsistent, and I was among the pundits throwing dirt on his fantasy football and DFS grave earlier this season. He's proven me wrong by going on a heater. Swift has had at least 119 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in four straight games. Among 44 running backs with at least 30 rush attempts since Week 4, Swift is ninth in yards per carry (5.36), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.79), 19th in yards after contact per attempt (2.57), sixth in explosive run percentage (8.3%), fifth in rushing yards per game (96.5) and tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (four). During that stretch, he also averaged 3.25 receptions per game and 36.75 receiving yards per game. Swift has a desirable matchup this week. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings and the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year. Swift is underpriced at both DFS providers, making him a value in cash games and an enticing pick in GPPs.
Value Plays/Punts
- Cedric Tillman is a repeat visitor to this section after putting together his second DFS-friendly showing since the Browns traded Amari Cooper. Since Week 7, Tillman is third in air yards (278), tied for 27th in target share (22.6%), tied for third in receptions (15), 12th in receiving yards per game (90.5) and tied for third in touchdown receptions (two). Tillman's salary hasn't caught up to his production, making him a no-brainer pick in cash games and a high-upside choice in GPPs.
- The Rams have an implied total of 25.0 points, and Stafford has all his weapons at his disposal. The arrow is pointed upward for the veteran gunslinger. Stafford torched the Vikings for 279 passing yards and four touchdowns last week. He also passed for 317 yards in Week 1 against the Lions when Nacua was healthy for part of the contest, and Kupp played the entirety of the game. Perhaps noteworthy, Stafford carved up Mike MacDonald's defense last season when Seattle's current head coach was Baltimore's defensive coordinator. Stafford passed for 294 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Ravens last year.
- The Panthers traded Diontae Johnson, but Adam Thielen could return this week. Nevertheless, the youth movement is on in Carolina's receiving corps. Jalen Coker has stepped into a more prominent role lately and flashed his potential. The undrafted rookie free agent set new highs for targets (six) and receiving yards (78), tied his previous high for receptions (four) and scored his first professional touchdown in Week 8. Coker is a big-bodied wide receiver with an eye-catching RAS. Despite his size and speed combo, the Panthers haven't stuck him on the perimeter. Instead, per Fantasy Points, Coker has a 73.0% slot rate this season. Meanwhile, since Week 5, the Saints have faced the fifth-highest target share (35.8%) to the slot. As a result, Coker is an appealing punt and can build on last week's promising showing.
Week 9 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Bijan Robinson: 73.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.73x)
Bijan Robinson: 73.5 Rushing Yards Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Robinson has exceeded 73.5 rushing yards in two of his previous three games and faces a leaky run defense. Per Pro Football Reference, the Cowboys have coughed up 109.4 rushing yards per game to running backs this season.
De'Von Achane: 31.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.67x)
De'Von Achane: 32.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
De'Von Achane has thrived as a pass-catching weapon in Tua Tagovailoa's three starts this year. In those three games, he had an 18.4% target share, 0.39 targets per route run, 20 receptions, 195 receiving yards (65.0 per game), 3.61 yards per route run and a 13.6% first-read target share.
Achane has the ideal matchup for his receiving outlook this week. The Bills have allowed the most receiving yards per game (54.3) to running backs this year. They've also faced the highest target share to running backs (23.8%) since Week 5. Finally, Achane exceeded 32.5 receiving yards in all of Tua's starts, including hanging 69 on the Bills in Week 2.
Elijah Moore: 39.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.74x)
Elijah Moore: 40.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Tillman wasn't the only wideout in Cleveland's offense to benefit from Jameis Winston starting. Instead, Elijah Moore also awoke from his slumber. In Week 8, Moore had a 26.8% target share, 0.34 targets per route run, a 29.4% first-read percentage, a 25.7% air-yard share, eight receptions and 85 receiving yards. Moore has ample room to regress from last week's explosion while still clearing his low lines for receiving yards at Sleeper and Underdog.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
