The totals aren’t through the roof this week. Thus, the suggested game stacks have totals under 48.0 points. Nevertheless, both games have shootout potential. The first has many avenues for stacking, while the second is more narrowly focused. The core studs and values/punts also have a mini-game stack as a bonus. Finally, a few player props at Sleeper and Underdog were the most eye-catching for Week 8.
NFL Week 8 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Seahawks vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -3.0/47.0 Points
The Seahawks are hosting the cross-country traveling Bills in what could be a fun shootout. According to RotoViz's pace app, Seattle and Buffalo have played at the fourth and eighth-fastest situation-neutral paces this year. The pace should be DFS-friendly.
The Seahawks have had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) this year, which would be ideal for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant if Seattle doesn't adjust their offensive tendencies and DK Metcalf is ruled out with his knee injury.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, JSN is first on the Seahawks in route participation (84.9%) and second in target share (19.3%). Yet, the second-year pro is inefficient. Smith-Njigba has PPR-scam appeal appeal. However, Lockett is the more efficient wideout and has an 11.1-yard average depth of target versus 8.3 for JSN, making him the better bet for a big play. Lockett has accounted for 22.0% of Seattle's air yards.
Lockett and Fant should also benefit from a shift in how teams have attacked the Bills since slot cornerback Taron Johnson returned in Week 6. In Buffalo's previous two games, 38.8% of targets have gone to players aligned wide against the Bills, 28.2% have gone to the slot, 15.5% have gone to players aligned inline and 18.3% have gone to players aligned in the backfield. Meanwhile, Lockett has aligned wide 67.0% of the time and in the slot at a 33.0% rate compared to 13.2% and 86.8% for JSN. Fant has aligned wide 17.3% of the time, in the slot 54.8% of the time and inline at a 24.4% clip. Kenneth Walker is a featured core stud. So, I'll get to him soon.
Josh Allen had season highs for pass attempts (33) and passing yards (323) last week. He also tossed two touchdowns. Buffalo had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate in Week 7 compared to 52% in the first six weeks.
Amari Cooper was tailor-made for Buffalo's offense. Buffalo's new No. 1 wideout had only a 34.3% route participation percentage after receiving a crash course in learning the playbook last week. Cooper made the most of the limited role, turning his 12 routes into 63 air yards, five targets, four receptions, 66 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on a red zone target and a 20.0% first-read percentage. Cooper's route participation should take a substantial step forward after another week of learning the playbook.
Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid also benefited from the flip to a more pass-happy offense last week. Shakir caught all seven of his targets for 65 yards. Coleman had seven targets, four receptions and a season-high 125 yards. Kincaid rounded things out with six targets, three receptions and 52 yards, but I'll have more on him in the punts/values since his salary is inexplicably the minimum for a tight end at FanDuel.
James Cook was Buffalo's lead running back after a one-week absence in Week 6 when Ray Davis shined. Cook had 12 of Buffalo's backfield's 17 rush attempts last week, and he ran 13 routes compared to 10 for Ty Johnson and seven for Davis.
Cook has a mouthwatering matchup for the favored Bills. According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have coughed up the second-most rushing yards per game (129.0), 0.86 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.29 receptions per game, 33.6 receiving yards per game, the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (26.3) and the 10th-most FanDuel points per game (23.0) to running backs this season.
Game: Dolphins vs. Cardinals
Spread/Total: MIA -3.0/46.5 Points
Tua Tagovailoa is back this week, and while Miami's offense didn't fire on all cylinders the first two weeks of the season with him as a starter, he's a massive upgrade under center for the Dolphins. They had season highs for yards of offense (400) and points (20) in Week 1, and Tua instantly revives the value for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane. The following table shows the trio's receiving data via Fantasy Points through Miami's first two games this year.
Hill is featured among the core studs below. Waddle is also an intriguing pick, albeit behind Hill and Achane in the pecking order. In addition to Achane's receiving exploits, he had 32 rush attempts, 120 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown through Week 2. The Cardinals are also a run-funnel defense, facing a 49% situation-neutral rush rate this season.
James Conner and Trey McBride are exciting bring-backs in this game stack or as part of skinny stacks with one of Miami's speedsters. Conner is a workhorse, averaging 15.6 rush attempts per game, 72.0 rushing yards per game, 2.0 receptions per game and 19.9 receiving yards per game. Conner has also splashed paydirt three times this year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have faced a 48% situation-neutral rush rate this year and coughed up the ninth-most DraftKings points per game and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs.
McBride hasn't had a monstrous follow-up to his breakout sophomore campaign. Nevertheless, he's one of the NFL's best tight ends. Among 37 tight ends with at least 75 routes this year, McBride is first in route participation (81.9%), third in air-yard share (23.2%), first in target share (25.3%), fourth in targets per route run (0.27), third in receptions (33), fourth in receiving yards per game (53.7), seventh in yards per route run (1.98) and first in first-read percentage (27.6%).
Core Studs
- Calling this a vintage Derrick Henry season would be disrespectful to the King. Instead, it's a career year. According to Pro Football Reference, he averaged a career-high 126.7 rushing yards per game in 2020, when he rumbled for 2,027 yards and a career-high 17 rushing touchdowns. This year, King Henry is averaging an NFL-high 124.7 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per carry -- higher than the 5.4 yards per carry he had in 2020 -- while splashing paydirt eight times, putting him on pace to surpass his previous high. The Ravens are 9.0-point favorites, and Henry should steamroll the Browns.
- Hill's numbers highlighted in the table above speak for themselves. Furthermore, among 100 wideouts with at least 250 routes last year, Hill was third in air yards (1,950), fourth in air-yard share (43.4%), third in target share (30.4%), first in targets per route run (0.37), fourth in first-read percentage (37.2%), third in receptions (124), first in receiving yards per game (109.5), first in yards per route run (3.96) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (14). Hill's salary was reduced in DFS for his underwhelming numbers without Tua, making him a screaming value in Tua's return.
- Walker is an exceptionally explosive runner and opposes a defense guilty of coughing up explosive runs at a high rate this year. Per Fantasy Points, among 42 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Walker has the second-highest explosive run rate (9.2%). Conversely, the Bills are tied for the seventh-highest explosive run rate (6.6%) allowed this season. Walker is also game-script proof after getting entrusted with passing-down duties this year. The third-year pro is averaging 74.0 scrimmage yards per game and 4.2 receptions per game with five touchdowns this season. He should feast against a defense coughing up the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Cedric Tillman made the most of Cleveland's post-Cooper opportunities. Among wideouts in Week 7, Tillman was tied for third in air yards (126), tied for 18th in target share (23.1%), tied for first in receptions (eight) and tied for 11th in receiving yards (81). He's paired with a gunslinger in a cupcake matchup this week. The Ravens have surrendered the third-most DraftKings points per game and the second-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this year. Tillman doesn't need to duplicate last week's performance to provide value at his tiny salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Jameis Winston is starting for Cleveland this week. He completed only five of his 11 pass attempts last week for 67 yards and a touchdown. The veteran gunslinger should benefit from working with Cleveland's first-team offense in practice this week after serving as their emergency No. 3 quarterback last week. Winston is a volatile, risk-taking quarterback. When he started three games for the Saints in 2022, he averaged 286.0 passing yards per game with four touchdown passes and five interceptions. He also infamously threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions for the Buccaneers in 2019, averaging an NFL-high 319.3 passing yards per game. Winston should provide massive surplus value on his punt salary against a defense coughing up the most passing yards per game (287.1). Baltimore has also yielded 14 passing touchdowns this year.
- Without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Cade Otton should be the most significant beneficiary. The third-year pro tied his career-high for targets (10) and set new highs for receptions (eight) and receiving yards (100) last week. Otton has surpassed 40 receiving yards in four of his previous five games, hauling in at least six receptions three times during that period and posting two receptions for 15 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 6. Otton is in a groove and will undoubtedly be chalky at DraftKings, where he's a no-brainer punt in cash games and a stellar selection in GPPs.
- Kincaid is a GPP pick at DraftKings. Yet, he's a no-brainer punt in all game types at the minimum salary on FanDuel. I triple-checked his salary because I was in disbelief. The second-year pro hasn't lived up to the expectations that accompany being a first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Still, Kincaid has been rock-solid this year and could benefit immensely from having a coverage-drawing No. 1 wide receiver. Kincaid's box-score production in Cooper's debut for the Bills last week was decent. However, his underlying data was arguably more impressive. In Week 7, Kincaid had an 18.2% target share, 0.29 targets per route run, a 26.1% air-yard share, 2.48 yards per route run and a 24.0% first-read percentage. Finally, Kincaid has a favorable matchup. The Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this year.
Week 8 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Tyreek Hill: 82.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.77x)
Tyreek Hill: 81.5 Receiving Yards Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In 19 games with Tua since last year, Hill has averaged 106.1 receiving yards per game, exceeding 82.5 receiving yards 11 times and clearing 81.5 12 times. Hill should torch Arizona's secondary, especially since the Cardinals will struggle to pressure Tua. According to Pro Football Reference, the Cardinals have the fourth-lowest pressure rate (16.0%) this year. Furthermore, Dennis Gardeck, Arizona's leader in sacks (3.0), was ruled out for the rest of the year earlier this week. We project Hill to have 86.4 receiving yards against the Cardinals this week.
Trey McBride: 48.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.78x)
Trey McBride: 47.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In six games this season, McBride has averaged 53.7 receiving yards per game, with a median of 52.0. He's surpassed 48.5 receiving yards four times this year, including three straight entering this contest. We project McBride to have 51.7 receiving yards this week.
Kenneth Walker: 62.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Walker's explosiveness could allow him to exceed 62.5 rushing yards on one run. Obviously, that's unlikely. Still, the Bills have coughed up the 13th-most rushing yards per game (105.7) to running backs this season. The third-year pro has averaged 46.8 rushing yards per game. However, Walker has had a median of 69 rushing yards this season, exceeding 62.5 three times.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
