A pair of games with totals north of 50 are the most exciting stacks this week. Fortunately, both games have intriguing players at all salary levels, and each game has a variety of ways to attack it. Four players in those games are among the best studs and values/punts. Yet, a pair of one-offs are also highlighted as a stud and a value/punt, respectively. Finally, a few pick ’em selections are the most inviting at Sleeper and Underdog.
NFL Week 7 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Falcons vs. Seahawks
Spread/Total: ATL -3.0/51.5 Points
The Seahawks at the Falcons is a recipe for a shootout. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Falcons take the fewest seconds per snap (25.1) in neutral game scripts and are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%). Meanwhile, the Seahawks take the second-fewest seconds per snap (25.4) in neutral game scripts and pass at the highest situation-neutral rate (64%). Thus, Geno Smith is first in passing yards per game (296.3), and Kirk Cousins is fifth in passing yards per game (266.3).
Both pass defenses are in the middle of the pack in DraftKings and FanDuel points allowed per game to quarterbacks. However, neither pass defense is imposing. Atlanta's allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game (193.0) but could get thrashed this week. Per Pro Football Reference, the Falcons are tied for the second-lowest pressure rate (14.0%) and have the fewest sacks (five) this season. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Smith has completed 77.8% of his passes on 167 dropbacks when kept clean, passing for 1,264 yards, 7.8 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, five big-time throws and two turnover-worthy plays.
Drake London and Darnell Mooney are Atlanta's top pass-catching weapons. They're excellent DFS selections. Kyle Pitts is less trustworthy. Yet, he's a matchup-driven suggestion. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, the Seahawks have faced the fourth-highest target share (14.0%) to players aligned inline, and Pitts has aligned inline 42.1% of the time. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game (13.7) and tied for the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (10.5) allowed to tight ends this season.
Seattle's pass-happy offense has allowed DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant to post fantasy-friendly numbers to varying degrees. Metcalf is their unquestioned top pass-catching weapon, and he's featured among the core studs. JSN and Lockett are rock-solid options, too. Per Fantasy Points, JSN has an 88.5% slot rate and Lockett has a 33.5% slot rate, and the Falcons have faced the second-highest target share (40.6%) to the slot. Fant isn't an elite talent. Still, he has a bargain salary and an adequate 64.5% route participation rate, which is good enough to put him on the radar at tight end.
Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker are also alluring DFS picks. Robinson is another player in the core studs. So, I'll analyze him later. According to Fantasy Points, among 45 running backs with at least 45 rush attempts this season, Walker is third in explosive run rate (9.8%), first in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.35) and has handled 80% of Seattle's rush attempts inside the five-yard line. Walker's also trusted on passing downs, resulting in 5.3 receptions per game and 34.0 receiving yards per game.
Game: Commanders vs. Panthers
Spread/Total: WAS -7.5/51.5 Points
The Commanders have the highest implied total (30 points) on this week's NFL DFS main slate, and Jayden Daniels is the triggerman. The dual-threat rookie is second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (322) and rushing touchdowns (four). Daniels is also a talented passer. Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Daniels is fifth in PFF's passing grade, first in completion percentage (75.3%), third in adjusted completion percentage (80.5%) and has a 7.8-yard average throw depth. So, he's not inflating his completion percentage with shallow throws. Daniels is the top quarterback on the slate and an elite pick in all game types.
Terry McLaurin is Washington's best pass-catching weapon. He's also having a stellar season. Among 97 wideouts with at least 75 routes this year, McLaurin is second in air-yard share (50.7%), 14th in target share (24.9%), tied for 20th in targets per route run (0.25), tied for 26th in yards per route run (2.09), tied for sixth in end zone targets (six), 19th in first-read percentage (29.6%) and 20th in expected DraftKings points per route run (0.49).
Noah Brown has emerged as Washington's No. 2 wide receiver. Zach Ertz is a forthcoming value/punt suggestion. Austin Ekeler can also be stacked with Daniels because of his pass-catching prowess or used because of his well-rounded skill set and mouthwatering matchup. The Panthers have coughed up the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs this year.
The Panthers have a trio of enticing bring-backs to stack with the favored Commanders. Chuba Hubbard is game-script proof. He's handled 86 of Carolina's backfield's 120 rush attempts this year and run 118 routes versus 77 for Miles Sanders. Hubbard can pile up rushing yards if the Panthers keep this contest close. Washington has permitted the sixth-most rushing yards per game (119.2) to running backs at a juicy 5.3 yards per carry this season.
Diontae Johnson is Carolina's top option in the passing attack and has thrived since Andy Dalton was promoted to Carolina's starting gig. Among 71 wide receivers with at least 75 routes since Week 3, Johnson is eighth in air-yard share (43.3%), sixth in target share (27.2%), tied for sixth in targets per route run (0.29), 17th in yards per route run (2.19), 11th in receiving yards per game (76.5), first in end zone targets (eight), tied for first in first-read percentage (39.6%) and tied for sixth in expected DraftKings points per route run (0.59).
Johnson has performed at a WR1 level with the Red Rifle and has a drool-inducing matchup this week. The Commanders have yielded the fifth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season. Jalen Coker has the same sweet matchup and will be included below among the values/punts.
Core Studs
- Tyler Allgeier won't go away. Nevertheless, Robinson is an elite selection this week. He blew up last week for 95 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions and 10 receiving yards and has another tantalizing matchup this week. The Seahawks have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (124.5), 4.3 receptions per game, 31.0 receiving yards per game, five touchdowns, the 12th-most DraftKings points per game and the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this season. Robinson should build on his best game of the season and is an optimizer darling, sporting the second-highest value score among running backs on the main slate at DraftKings and the third-highest at FanDuel.
- Metcalf isn't just Seattle's No. 1 receiver. He's also having a stellar season relative to his peers around the league at wide receiver. Among 78 wideouts with at least 100 routes this year, Metcalf is 11th in air-yard share (42.5%), 25th in target share (21.5%), tied for 26th in targets per route run (0.23), 24th in yards per route run (2.00), tied for 18th in end zone targets (four), 29th in first-read percentage (25.5%) and tied for 22nd in expected DraftKings points per route run (0.46). Metcalf's per-route stats are especially exciting since the Seahawks have a pass-happy offense, enhancing their utility and resulting in 5.2 receptions per game, 78.2 receiving yards per game and two receiving touchdowns. Finally, there might be a squeaky-wheel narrative in play this week after Metcalf was captured on video using NSFW language about a need to throw past the sticks last week.
- Kyren Williams is a workhorse again this season. He's handled 95 of LA's backfield's 118 rush attempts (80.5%) and run 129 routes versus 10 for Ronnie Rivers and three for Blake Corum. Williams has amassed 72.0 rushing yards per game, 2.8 receptions per game, 14.2 receiving yards per game, six rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. Williams has reached paydirt every game this year. He has an ideal matchup and should be force-fed the ball in a positive game script since the Rams are 6.5-point favorites against the spiraling Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game and the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year. Thus, Williams is projected as the RB2 at DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Value Plays/Punts
- JuJu Smith-Schuster is a rock-solid value at FanDuel. However, he's a must-use player in cash games at DraftKings and a stellar selection in GPPs. He turned back the clock in his return to the Chiefs in Week 5. Smith-Schuster erupted for seven receptions and 130 receiving yards, earning a target on 27.6% of his routes. Smith-Schuster doesn't need to repeat his outburst to provide value at his bargain salary, but it's optimal to know an explosion is still within his range of outcomes. Smith-Schuster's 2.98x value score is the highest among flex options at DraftKings this week.
- Ertz is an ideal punt at tight end. He's attached to the week's highest implied total and a projected shootout. The veteran tight end is arguably Washington's No. 2 passing-game weapon, ranking second on the team in route participation (71.2%), third in air-yard share (20.0%), second in target share (16.6%), second in receptions per game (3.5) and fourth in receiving yards per game (38.0). Finally, the Panthers have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game and tied for the seventh-most FanDuel points per game allowed to tight ends this season.
- I whiffed on my Coker pick last week, but I'm going back to the well after a meaningful role change in Week 6. Jonathan Mingo started for the Panthers in Week 6 but dropped behind Coker in the pecking order. Coker ran 30 routes, the third most for the Panthers, versus 14 for Mingo. Sadly, Coker had only three targets, three receptions and 30 receiving yards last week. Still, his 68 yards in Week 5 were one less than Mingo's career-high 69 in 21 games, and Coker's 30 receiving yards in Week 6 were more than Mingo's had in 14 of his 21 career games. Coker could siphon more work from the ineffective Mingo in a mouthwatering matchup. Coker's usage is also nifty for this matchup. Coker aligned in the slot a team-high 74.6% of the time, and the Commanders have faced the eighth-highest slot target rate (36.3%). The freakishly athletic undrafted free agent is worth another dart throw this week, namely in GPPs. However, Coker's a palatable punt in cash games this week after another step forward in route participation.
Week 7 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Geno Smith: 260.5 Passing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.69x)
Again, Smith has averaged an NFL-high 296.3 passing yards per game on an NFL-high 251 pass attempts this year. He's exceeded 260.5 passing yards five times in six games, with a median of 300.5. Smith shouldn't have trouble eclipsing 260.5 passing yards against a defense incapable of generating pressure.
Justin Jefferson: 6.5 Receptions - More (Sleeper) (1.65x)
Justin Jefferson: 6.5 Receptions - Higher (Underdog) (0.9x)
Speaking of not generating pressure, the Lions might struggle to get after Sam Darnold after Aidan Hutchinson suffered a gruesome leg injury last week. Darnold can pepper Justin Jefferson with targets if the Lions can't pressure him.
Among 78 wide receivers with at least 100 routes this year, Jefferson is second in target share (31.2%) and first-read percentage (38.9%). Darnold and head coach Kevin O'Connell know where their bread is buttered and have force-fed Jefferson the ball.
Jefferson hasn't surpassed 6.5 receptions in a game this year but should do so this week. The Lions have allowed the most receptions per game (19.0) to wide receivers, and Jefferson hung a dozen receptions on them in Week 18 last season. So, we project Jefferson to have 6.6 receptions this week.
Kyren Williams: 92.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.74x)
Kyren Williams: 91.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
LA's offensive line was gutted by injuries in the first few weeks of the season. Fortunately, they've had the same starting five for three consecutive games and could get Joe Noteboom back this week. Perhaps it was a coincidence Williams's rushing production climbed as the offensive line gelled, but he had 89, 94 and 102 rushing yards in LA's last three games.
Williams should be fresh after the team's bye last week, and he has a sweet matchup. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game (110.8) to running backs this season. Las Vegas's run defense could also falter further without Christian Wilkins. Najee Harris steamrolled the Wilkins-less Raiders for a season-high 106 rushing yards last week at a blistering 7.6 yards per carry. Harris's previous high was 70 rushing yards, and he had only 3.3 yards per carry before last week's outburst. Williams should eviscerate the Raiders.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
