Two games with totals above 50 points are the most eye-catching stacks this week. A few players from those contests are represented among Week 6’s core studs and values/punts, but some one-off choices are also intriguing in both sections. Finally, the most appealing player props at Sleeper and Underdog are from players in the highlighted game stacks and also include a core stud.
NFL Week 6 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Ravens vs. Commanders
Spread/Total: BAL -6.5/51.5 Points
Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are two of the most tantalizing dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL. The former is first among quarterbacks this year in rushing yards (364) and has two rushing touchdowns, and the latter is second in rushing yards (300) and has four rushing touchdowns.
Their rushing production isn't entirely the product of scrambling, either. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jackson has 53 designed runs and 17 scrambles, and Daniels has 56 and 28. Daniels will be featured below. Jackson is best utilized in GPPs because his talented backfield mate should be the offense's focal point in a cushy matchup.
Baltimore's not-so-mystery bulldozing running back will be featured below. Zay Flowers isn't a terrible selection in stacks with Jackson. However, I excluded him from the table because his salary isn't appealing, and Jackson can pay off his salary with his legs and a big play to Rashod Bateman or a touchdown pass or two to Isaiah Likely. Jackson has attempted 11 passes inside the 10-yard line this year and Likely has team highs in targets (four) and touchdown receptions (two) in that area of the field.
Terry McLaurin is Daniels' best weapon through the air by a wide margin, and Zach Ertz is a mainstay on the field. Per PFF, McLaurin's 152 routes are first for the Commanders, and Ertz's 140 are second. No one else has exceeded 100 routes.
Noah Brown was an addition to the club late in the offseason after the Texans cut him at final cutdowns, and he was out last week. He was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, which is encouraging for his odds to return this week. In Week 3, Brown's 18 routes were the second-most among Washington's wide receivers. He's Washington's most appealing low-salary wide receiver.
Game: Cowboys vs. Lions
Spread/Total: DET -3.0/52.0 Points
Sometimes, offensive and defensive tendencies align well, and the matchup between the Cowboys and Lions is a textbook example. According to RotoViz's pace app, Dallas's 57% situation-neutral pass rate this season is tied for the ninth-highest, and Detroit's 48% situation-neutral rush rate is tied for the 13th-highest. Meanwhile, the Lions are tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) against them, and the Cowboys are tied for the 14th-highest situation-neutral rush rate (44%) against them.
Thus, Dak Prescott and his pass-catching weapons are the most appealing stacking choices from the Cowboys, and Detroit's backfield is in a superb situation. Still, gamers shouldn't and won't sleep on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
Core Studs
- Bijan Robinson hasn't met preseason expectations, and Tyler Allgeier has mixed in. Nevertheless, Robinson has handled 67% of the backfield's rush attempts, and he's run 116 routes versus 38 for Allgeier. So, Robinson's underlying data is stellar. The second-year running back has a mouthwatering get-right matchup this week. Per Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (120.6), the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.80), 4.0 receptions per game, 35.2 receiving yards per game and 0.20 receiving touchdowns per game to running backs this season. The Falcons are 6.0-point favorites this week. Therefore, Robinson should be in a favorable game script and feast on Carolina's pitiful run defense.
- I teased Derrick Henry above. He's in an eruption spot against the Commanders. Washington's allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game (116.2) at a blistering 5.3 yards per carry to running backs. They've also coughed up three rushing touchdowns, 22 receptions (4.4 per game) and 162 receiving yards (32.4 per game at 7.4 yards per reception) to the position. King Henry is first in rushing yards per game (114.4) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (six) this season. Sometimes, fantasy football and DFS are straightforward.
- I highlighted Daniels' rushing exploits above. Yet, that's only half of his dual-threat ability. Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season, Daniels is seventh in PFF's passing grade, second in yards per pass attempt (8.7), first in completion percentage (77.1%) and third in adjusted completion percentage (80.5%). Daniels' passing prowess should be on display against a leaky pass-funnel defense. Baltimore's 64% situation-neutral pass rate against them this year is tied for the second-highest mark. Unsurprisingly, the Ravens have allowed quarterbacks the most passing yards per game (304.0) and nine touchdown passes versus three interceptions.
Value Plays/Punts
- Jalen Tolbert isn't an elite talent. Nonetheless, he's decent and has a drool-inducing matchup. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, since Week 2, Tolbert has had a 16.0% target share, 0.18 targets per route run, a team-high 28.1% air-yard share, 4.8 receptions per game, 58.8 receiving yards per game, 1.65 yards per route run, three end zone targets, two receiving touchdowns and a 19.3% first-read percentage. Meanwhile, the Lions have yielded the second-most DraftKings points per game and the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
- Jalen Coker is a GPP-only suggestion unless Dave Canales reveals the rookie wide receiver will start this week. However, Canales has already made the bold move to bench last year's No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young, so sitting unproductive second-year wideout Jonathan Mingo for Coker wouldn't be surprising. Canales shouted out Coker on Monday after the undrafted rookie's eye-catching performance against the Bears in Week 5. He's a freakish athlete, but the big-bodied wideout hasn't been pigeonholed as a perimeter wide receiver. Instead, Coker has a 70.0% slot rate, which is ideal for this week's matchup. The Falcons have faced the third-highest slot target percentage (39.3%) this year. Coker has an opportunity to build on securing four receptions for 68 yards last week.
- Derek Carr is out with an oblique injury. Spencer Rattler will make his first professional start against the Buccaneers this week. The Buccaneers are 3.5-point favorites, and the game's total is only 41.5 points. Todd Bowles has often utilized blitzes, and he'll almost certainly be aggressive against a fifth-round rookie making his first start, especially if the Saints are in a negative game script.
Week 6 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Bijan Robinson: 67.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.76x)
Bijan Robinson: 67.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Robinson is a holdover from the core studs. I won't rehash all the same points. Atlanta's featured runner should smash against a defense that's permitted Alvin Kamara (83 rushing yards), J.K. Dobbins (131 rushing yards), Chase Brown (80 rushing yards) and D'Andre Swift (73 rushing yards) to exceed 67.5 rushing yards against them this season. The only game the Panthers didn't allow more than 67.5 rushing yards to a running back was their lone victory this year against the Raiders in Week 3. We project Robinson to have 68.4 rushing yards this week.
Derrick Henry: 81.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Commanders are tied for the third-highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%) against them this year. The Ravens don't need to be begged to feed King Henry, and as a 6.5-point favorite, Baltimore should have a positive game script. Henry has averaged 114.4 rushing yards per game, with a median of 92 this year. He's eclipsed 81.5 rushing yards per game in four straight contests and should keep rolling.
CeeDee Lamb: 81.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
As I noted above, the Lions have a pass-funnel defense, and the Cowboys have a pass-leaning offense. The combination is a recipe for a big day for CeeDee Lamb. Moreover, the Lions have faced the second-highest slot target percentage (41.7%) this year, and Lamb's had a 48.9% slot rate this year. Thus, we project Lamb to have 85.1 receiving yards against the Lions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
