The first week of byes is here, and the Sunday morning game in London also removes two teams from the main slate. As a result, the player pool is the smallest it’s been for a main slate this season. Still, two games stand out as the most appealing to stack, and this piece has three core studs, three values/punts and suggestions for player props at Sleeper and Underdog.
NFL Week 5 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Texans vs. Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -1.0/47.5 Points
The Texans clawed back to win against the reeling Jaguars in Week 4, and the Bills got steamrolled by the Ravens in Baltimore. Despite lackluster showings from each team last week, putting it mildly for Buffalo, they have eye-catching DFS options, starting at their quarterbacks.
C.J. Stroud is a traditional pocket passer, but he's averaged 10.9 rushing yards per game. So he can add a point with his legs. Nevertheless, Stroud will likely need to support two pass-catching weapons if he provides value at his salary. Thus, gamers using Stroud in GPPs should double-stack him with two of his wide receivers.
Nico Collins is Houston's alpha wide receiver and one of the best in the NFL. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 75 wide receivers with at least 75 routes this season, Collins is eighth in air-yard share (46.0%), fourth in target share (27.6%), tied for 11th in targets per route run (0.28 TPRR), fifth in yards per route run (3.22 Y/RR), tied for first in end-zone targets (seven), ninth in first-read percentage (34.7%) and fourth in first downs per route run (0.164). Collins has parlayed his absurd usage into the third-most receptions per game (7.5), the most receiving yards per game (122.3) and two touchdowns. Collins is a stud and the best stacking option with Stroud or an elite standalone choice.
However, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell have compelling cases for usage. According to Fantasy Points, the Bills have faced the fourth-highest slot target percentage (41.1%). Meanwhile, Diggs' 62.0% slot rate this year is the highest among Houston's wide receivers, and Dell has a 29.6% slot rate. Diggs has had the better box-score numbers, and people who believe in the revenge narrative could increase the percentage of rosters he's on. However, Dell shouldn't be dismissed as a big-play threat and GPP option if he can return from a one-game injury absence.
Joe Mixon is also attempting to return from an injury. He's missed the previous two games with an ankle injury. Buffalo's defense was gashed on the ground last week, and Mixon had a massive output in Week 1 against the Colts. He could be leaned on heavily if his ankle doesn't sideline him again.
Josh Allen is the focal point of Buffalo's offense, and his mobility is critical for his ceiling. In addition, Allen's ability to score fantasy points on the ground means he doesn't need to support multiple pass-catchers to provide value. So, gamers can double-stack or single-stack Allen.
The Bills are no longer the same pass-first offense as under Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey. Still, according to RotoViz's pace app, their 56% situation-neutral pass rate is in the middle of the pack. Furthermore, the Bills are tied for the ninth-most plays per 60 minutes in a neutral game script (62). Interestingly, Houston is second, running 71 plays per 60 minutes in a neutral game script. The play volume for both offenses is ideal for the fantasy-scoring potential of all their critical contributors.
The most appealing ways to stack James Cook are as a bring-back from a double-stack with Stroud or in a skinny stack with one of Houston's wide receivers. This year, Cook has handled 50 of Buffalo's backfield's 83 rush attempts. Notably, Cook has also emerged as Buffalo's most-utilized back inside the 20, inside the 10 and is tied for the backfield's lead in rushes inside the five.
Cook is also an asset through the air. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cook's 61 routes are more than Ty Johnson's 31 and Ray Davis's 10 combined. This season, Cook has been targeted on 0.19 of his routes and tallied 2.3 receptions per game, 26.5 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown. Therefore, Cook can be stacked with Allen.
Still, Khalil Shakir, if his ankle injury doesn't prevent him from playing this week, Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are Allen's most appealing stacking partners. Shakir is first on the Bills in receptions per game (4.5), receiving yards per game (57.5), receiving touchdowns (two), target share (18.3%), yards per route run (2.80 Y/RR), first-read percentage (21.1%) and first downs per route run (0.134).
Kincaid has been Buffalo's No. 2 pass-catching weapon this year. Additionally, he's been decent relative to his peers at tight end. Among 35 tight ends with at least 50 routes this season, Kincaid is 10th in target share (16.3%), ninth in targets per route run (0.22 TPRR), eighth in yards per route run (1.71 Y/RR), seventh in yards after the catch per reception (7.38) and sixth in first-read percentage (19.3%). He can be stacked with Allen, used as a bring-back from a Stroud double-stack or skinny-stacked with Mixon or Houston's wideouts.
Game: Bengals vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -2.5/49.5 Points
The Bengals and Ravens are a perfect example of styles making fights. More importantly, they're an ideal matchup for DFS scoring potential if both offenses play to their capabilities.
First, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Bengals are tied for the 11th-highest situation-neutral pass rate (57%) this year, and Baltimore's defense is tied for the second-highest pass rate (64%) faced. Second, the Ravens are tied for the 10th-highest situation-neutral rush rate (50%), and Cincinnati's defense has faced the second-highest situation-neutral rush rate (53%).
The most straightforward way to stack this contest is with Joe Burrow double-stacked with two of his pass-catchers and a Derrick Henry bring-back. However, skinny-stacking Henry with one of Cincinnati's pass-catching options is appealing.
Of course, being contrarian can pay off in GPPs, too. Lamar Jackson always has slate-breaking potential. Therefore, if the Ravens end up in a negative game script and need to shift more opportunities to Jackson's plate, he could lead the slate in scoring. Jackson can be single-stacked since he can score points with his legs or double-stacked with two of his pass-catching weapons. Jackson could also explode in a neutral game script if he's responsible for Baltimore's touchdowns. Thus, the reigning MVP has multiple paths to a blow-up performance.
And, of course, this game has the highest over/under total, which makes it an eye-catching stack. Still, some of the game's key contributors are forthcoming among the studs and values/punts.
Core Studs
- King Henry is in vintage form this year. He's first in rushing yards per game (120.0) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (five). Among 49 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Henry is fourth in explosive run percentage (8.8%), 19th in yards after contact per attempt (2.69) and third in yards before contact per attempt (3.31). When given a runway, he's a runaway freight train, and Baltimore's offensive line, fullback and tight ends have given him room to operate and get up to speed. The Bengals are a cushy matchup for Henry. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Cincinnati is tied for the ninth-most DraftKings points per game (25.6) allowed to running backs and has allowed the 12th-most FanDuel points per game (21.5) and the ninth-most rushing yards per game (114.3).
- Tee Higgins didn't play in the first two weeks but has performed admirably in the last two weeks. However, Higgins' underlying data indicates an explosion might be on the horizon. Among 98 wideouts with at least 25 routes since Week 3, Higgins is 20th in air-yard share (37.4%), 22nd in air yards (172) and tied for 30th in target share (21.7%). Higgins' downfield usage should play well against a defense yielding the ninth-most DraftKings points per game (37.9) and the ninth-most FanDuel points per game (30.1) to wide receivers this year.
- Diontae Johnson's season was saved by the Panthers pulling the plug on Bryce Young. He's exploded in two games with Andy Dalton as Carolina's starting quarterback. According to Fantasy Points, among 98 wide receivers with at least 25 routes since Week 3, Johnson is third in air-yard share (57.2%), second in air yards (287), fourth in target share (32.1%), tied for sixth in targets per route run (0.35 TPRR), second in expected DraftKings points per route run (0.71) and second in expected FanDuel points per route run (0.71). Johnson's performed at an elite level and is grossly underpriced at both DFS outlets. As a result, according to the lineup optimizer, Johnson has the highest value score among wide receivers at DraftKings and the 14th-highest value score among wideouts at FanDuel.
Value Plays/Punts
- Dontayvion Wicks was the easiest choice for this section. Christian Watson suffered an ankle injury last week, paving the way for Wicks to get more playing time in a mouthwatering matchup. The Rams have coughed up the eighth-most DraftKings points per game (38.2) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (30.9) to wide receivers this year. Wicks is a target earner who can barbecue them. Among 97 wide receivers with at least 50 routes this year, Wicks is tied for first in expected DraftKings and FanDuel points per route run (0.67).
- Coleman is a GPP-specific suggestion. The big-bodied rookie wide receiver hasn't lit the NFL on fire. Coleman has exceeded 50 receiving yards twice and scored a touchdown in one of the outlier games. He most intrigues me because of his deployment and how teams attack the Texans. Per Fantasy Points, Coleman's 96.2% aligned wide is first among Buffalo's receivers, and the Texans have faced the third-highest wide target percentage (50.5%). Coleman is in deep waters if he sees Derek Stingley in coverage, enhancing the risk of using Coleman. Yet, the rookie wideout could have a breakout contest if he makes the most of opportunities against Houston's other cornerbacks. The Texans have allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points per game (36.6) and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (30.2) to wide receivers.
- This year, the tight end landscape has been dreadful, increasing the appeal of punting the position. Fortunately, Erick All is an inviting punt, namely at DraftKings. The Bengals have rotated multiple tight ends. However, they've also used multiple tight ends on the field together. According to Sumer Sports, the Bengals are tied for the ninth-highest 12-personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers) percentage (26%) this season. As a result, All has carved out a role for the Bengals and earned routes at an exceedingly high rate. Among 58 tight ends with at least 25 routes this season, All is first in targets per route run (0.35). He's also tied for 15th among tight ends in receptions (12) and tied for 24th in receiving yards (82). Even if All doesn't siphon more snaps from his teammates at tight end, he should earn a few cheap points on short receptions. If All can reach paydirt in a shootout, he'll be a steal at his salary.
Week 5 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Derrick Henry: 88.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Henry had only 46 rushing yards in Week 1, but he's gained steam since then, amassing 84, 151 and 199. King Henry is averaging an NFL-high 120.0 rushing yards per game, and Cincinnati's run defense is leaky. The Bengals have allowed 120 rushing yards to Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1, 90 to Isiah Pacheco in Week 2 and 104 to Chuba Hubbard in Week 4. Henry is a better running back than the aforementioned trio and should steamroll the Bengals.
Joe Burrow: 251.5 Passing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
A positive game script for Henry would be optimal for Burrow's passing outlook. Moreover, Burrow is in good form and has a favorable matchup. Since a shaky opener, Burrow has passed for 258, 324 and 232 yards. Conversely, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (257.5) this season.
Tee Higgins: 52.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.76x)
Tee Higgins: 53.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Higgins should eat if Burrow dices up Baltimore's defense. Among Cincinnati's pass-catchers, since Week 3, Higgins is first in air yards (172), first in air-yard share (37.4%), first in target share (21.7%) and tied for third in targets per route run (0.23). Finally, Rashee Rice (103 receiving yards), Davante Adams (110 receiving yards), CeeDee Lamb (67 receiving yards) and Shakir (62 receiving yards) have each exceeded 53.5 receiving yards against the Ravens this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
