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Last week was not my best week, unfortunately, but in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) that is bound to happen. All you can do after a bad week is lick your wounds, learn from it and move on to the next week. That’s exactly what I’m going to do…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 7
DraftKings
Quarterback
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG) vs. PHI: $5,400
Daniel Jones gets his favorite weapon back this week in Malik Nabers, and it’s a great matchup. The Eagles’ secondary ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA. When you combine that with Jones’ rushing upside and his price, he makes for a great salary saver this week.
Others to consider: Geno Smith (QB – NYJ): $5,800 at ATL | Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL): $6,300 vs. SEA
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) @ WAS: $6,500
There are no uber-cheap running backs on the slate this week, so I’m going back to Chuba Hubbard, who is still underpriced. At 51.5 points, this game has the highest total on the slate, so there will be some points scored. Hubbard is involved in the passing game, getting at least four targets a game since Week 2. Even if the Panthers fall behind he will still get some usage.
Others to consider: Chase Brown (RB – CIN): $5,900 at CLE | Kareem Hunt (RB – KC): $6,000 at SF
Wide Receiver
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) @ ATL: $5,900
The Falcons struggle to defend slot receivers, ranking 21st in DVOA versus slot receivers, per FTN Fantas. Jaxon Smith-Njigba lines up in the slot 86% of the time. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 50.5 points and is one you will want exposure to. Smith-Njigba is second on the team in targets with 49, slightly behind DK Metcalf‘s 54.
Others to consider: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC): $4,000 at SF
Tight End
David Njoku (TE – CLE) vs. CIN: $4,100
With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, David Njoku could end up as the target leader in this offense for the rest of the season. Make no mistake about it, Deshaun Watson has been downright terrible, but he has to throw it to someone. There is also a small part of me that thinks this could be the week we see backup quarterback Jameis Winston, in which case I love Njoku even more. The Bengals are 25th in pass defense DVOA versus the tight end position this season.
Others to consider: Zach Ertz (TE – WAS): $3,900 vs. CAR
Defense
Miami Dolphins D/ST @ IND: $2,800
Anthony Richardson is expected to get the start. That’s all you need to know as to why I like the Dolphins this week. He will take sacks and could turn the ball over a few times.
FanDuel
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (QB – ATL) vs. SEA: $7,200
Playing in the game with the second-highest total (50.5) is why I like Kirk Cousins this week. He has some great stacking options with Drake London or the cheaper Darnell Mooney. Seattle is good enough to keep pace with the scoring, so we could get a shootout. The Seahawks are middle of the pack in pass defense DVOA at 17, but I think Cousins can have a monster game at home this week.
Others to consider: Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): $7,000 vs. PHI
Running Back
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) @ IND: $6,900
This is more a gut call than anything. De’Von Achane is cleared to play this week and I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game. After getting seven targets in each of the first two games, he has a total of seven targets over his last three games. Look for that to change today.
Others to consider: Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF): $6,000 vs. KC
Wide Receiver
George Pickens (WR – PIT) vs. NYJ: $6,000
With Russell Wilson expected to get the start, George Pickens should see an uptick in targets. Pickens fits the mold of a “Russell Wilson” type wide receiver, one that can win the 50/50 balls, as he had in DK Metcalf and Courtland Sutton in years past. The Jets are a tough pass defense, but I would expect the Steelers to find ways to get the ball to Pickens. They need this Russell Wilson experiment to work.
Others to consider: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): $6,100 at ATL
Tight End
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU) @ GB: $5,200
No team has given up more TE1 games this season than the Packers, who have allowed a tight end to finish in the top 12 at the position in five out of their six games, per Ryan McDowell’s Flow Chart seen below. Schultz was second on the team in target share last week and would have had a much better game had he not let a touchdown pass bounce off his hands and get intercepted.
Defense
New York Giants D/ST vs. PHI: $3,200
The Giants’ defense is cheap and hasn’t been terrible in fantasy this season. They only have one game in which they scored fewer than five fantasy points and two games with over 13 points. They get after the quarterback and Jalen Hurts has been known to take sacks by trying to do too much.
Others to consider: Dolphins: $3,600 at IND
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