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I had a great Week 4 with some of my good calls being Justin Fields, Diontae Johnson and Brian Thomas Jr., but no one ever hits on everything, I whiffed on Roschon Johnson, Buffalo Bills D/ST and Cam Akers. It’s onto Week 5, so let’s jump in…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 5
DraftKings
Quarterback
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): $5,900 vs. NYG
Coming into Week 5 before Kirk Cousins‘ Thursday night explosion, Geno Smith led all quarterbacks in dropbacks, attempts, completions and yards. He is second to Jayden Daniels in completion percentage. The Giants ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA on the season and will be traveling to the West Coast to play in one of the best “home fields” in the NFL.
Others to consider: Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE): $5,900 @ WAS | Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX):$5,700 vs. IND
Running Back
Tyrone Tracy (RB – NYG): $4,300 @ SEA
Devin Singletary is currently listed as doubtful, leaving Tyrone Tracy as the de facto No. 1 running back for the Giants. Tracy is a converted wide receiver and a good athlete who had already been getting some usage behind Singletary. He’s expected to get the lion’s share of the workload. At his price and with his receiving ability, Tracy makes for a good salary saver, so you can pay up for some of the studs on the slate. He’s game-script proof because even if the Giants get down in this game, he is their best pass-catcher among the running backs and won’t need to come off the field.
Others to consider: Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR): $6,100 @ CHI | Antonio Gibson (RB – NE): $5,100 vs. MIA
Wide Receiver
Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB): $5,000 @ LAR
Dontayvion Wicks is going to be the chalk cheap play at wide receiver this week. An injury to Christian Watson has opened the door for Wicks to become a large part of this passing offense. The Rams give up the eighth-most points to wide receivers on this slate and rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Others to consider: Tre Tucker (WR – LV): $4,100 @ DEN | Jordan Whittington (WR – LAR): $4,600 vs. GB | Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG): $5,600 @ SEA
Tight End
Erick All Jr. TE – CIN): $2,700 vs. BAL
Tucker Kraft is the chalk play here, but I wanted to shout out Erick All as a bottom-of-the-barrel type play at tight end. He has had four targets and four receptions in each of his last three games. For the first time this season, he out-snapped Mike Gesicki last week, playing 60% of the snaps.
Others to consider: Tucker Kraft (TE – GB): $3,500 @ LAR
Defense
Denver Broncos D/ST: $2,900 vs. LV
This might be the easiest play of the day. The Broncos defense is not the reason they aren’t winning games. Their defense has been legit this season. Now they get a Davante Adams-less Raiders team with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. The Broncos have had double-digit fantasy points in every game except one this season, including an 11-point showing last week against the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets.
FanDuel
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX): $7,000 vs. IND
The Colts give up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. Ironically, only the Jaguars give up more. Lawrence has not looked good this season. Maybe with the likely return of tight end Evan Engram and a great matchup he can finally put together a solid game.
Others to consider: Geno Smith (QB – SEA): $7,400 vs. NYG
Running Back
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE): $6,300 @ WAS
Finding cheap running backs on FanDuel is much harder than it is on DraftKings due to the half-PPR scoring format. A lot of the cheaper guys get their value from the passing game. Ford is one of the few cheap guys who get the first- and second-down work in addition to passing-down work. The Commanders’ run defense ranks 28th DVOA on the season, meaning Ford could have a nice game this week.
Others to consider: D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI): $6,400 vs. CAR
Wide Receiver
Jordan Whittington (WR – LAR): $5,400 vs. GB
Jordan Whittington has stepped into a major role in this offense playing 97% of the snaps last week on his way to six catches on eight targets for 62 yards. His price point, usage and the fact this game is expected to be high-scoring all make Whittington one of the more chalky players on the slate. For good reason, though.
Others to consider: Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB): $5,900 @ LAR | Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX): $6,300 vs. IND
Tight End
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB): $5,300 @ LAR
Here we are at this game again. The stacking options, if you decide to use Jordan Love as your QB, are great in this game. We haven’t even mentioned Jayden Reed. With all the injuries to the passing offense — Christian Watson ruled out, Romeo Doubs suspended and Luke Musgrave questionable — Kraft is an easy pick for value at tight end. Getting nine targets last week, Kraft has good chemistry with Love in a plus-matchup with the Rams.
Others to consider: Erick All (TE – CIN): $4,400 vs. BAL
Defense
Carolina Panthers D/ST: $3,100 @ CHI
I’m paying down this week on FanDuel. The Bears offense has struggled at times and the Panthers haven’t been terrible with two five-point games already this season. At $3,100, we just need a few sacks and maybe a turnover or two.
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