The NFL’s offense is finally getting back to what we know and love, passing attacks that put up big points and let us stack them like crazy. With another fun week on tap, let’s look at the best looking plays for GPP’s (tournaments) on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Week 6 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 6.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,800 vs. WAS
Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are two of the top QBs in scramble rate when trailing, with both registering double-digit scrambles, which will likely further push the fantasy points up in this one, in what is already one of the highest game totals of the year (52.5). The Ravens average the fifth most red zone drives per game (4.0) and own the second-best red zone TD success rate (75%), per Underdog Fantasy’s Josh Norris. Jackson is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game and has scored over 23 points in four out of five games.
The Commanders play two-high safeties at the fourth-highest rate (per Fantasy Points) and Jackson has taken the second-most deep throws against these looks and is second in fpts/dropback (0.66). The Commanders also play Cover-2 at the fourth-highest rate, a look which Lamar ranks second in deep throw rate against (29%) and has the fifth-highest yards per attempt against (10.47). Three of the five quarterbacks to face Washington finished as top seven quarterbacks that week. Jackson will likely be popular, but that doesn’t make the current fantasy QB1 unplayable by any means.
OMG LAMAR JACKSON ???????????????? pic.twitter.com/EIrmbRpKfU
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 6, 2024
Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,700 vs. DET
The Cowboys haven’t hit their stride just yet, much akin to last year when they only really got going over the second half of the season, but this matchup feels like a get-right spot with two offenses with opposing philosophies meeting. Dallas leans into the pass at the third-highest rate and Detroit does so at the seventh-lowest rate. On paper, this helps both teams with the Cowboys ranked 31st in run defense DVOA and the Lions allowing plenty of points to both WRs and QBs. Dak Prescott has averaged 21.0 points per game over the last three weeks and is a fine play against a Lions defense that’s given up 300 passing yards in 50% of their games this year and allows the ninth-most points to the position. Stacking Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and using either Lions running back on the other side is a nice building block.
FanDuel
Daniel Jones (NYG): $6,800 vs. CIN
Much like Kirk Cousins who was also coming off a season-ending injury, Daniel Jones has found his feet after a bumpy Week 1. Jones has been a top-12 quarterback in three of the last four games, which is all the more impressive when we consider he did so in Week 5 without Malik Nabers. It remains to be seen if Nabers clears concussion protocol in time to play against the Bengals, but it might not matter for Jones with the Bengals ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Jones ranks seventh in completion rate and top-10 in passing yards per game. The Bengals have given up 29 or more rushing yards to QBs in four of their five games and Jones can hurt them similarly here.
Daniel Jones passing chart via @NextGenStats for weeks 1-5 pic.twitter.com/tSFlwBirc0
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) October 9, 2024
Joe Burrow (CIN): $8,100 vs. NYG
In games with both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase in the lineup, Joe Burrow is averaging 316 passing yards, 3.3 touchdowns and 25.2 fantasy points. The Giants have been a reasonable team on defense this year, but likely won’t be a match for Burrow here, who was nearly perfect against the Ravens and if the Giants can keep up, this game has sneaky shoot-out potential. Keep rolling out Burrow double-stacks until they become to expensive to do so.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Bijan Robinson (ATL): $6,600 vs. CAR
The Panthers allow the second-most running back fantasy points, giving up a top-six RB finish in every week aside from Week 3 when the best the Raiders could offer was Alexander Mattison‘s RB18 finish. Bijan Robinson is dealing with niggling injuries which should help to keep his rostership levels to a reasonable amount. In five games the Panthers have given up 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs and it feels inevitable that Robinson enjoys this get-right spot. We can correlate Robinson with Diontae Johnson who likely sees steady volume if the Panthers are playing catchup to the Falcons.
James Conner (ARI): $6,800 vs. GB
James Conner continues to tick over well for fantasy production, with four top-18 performances and 100 yards or a touchdown in four of five games. The Cardinals run inside the 20 at the fourth-highest rate which has helped Conner see the fifth-most RZ rush attempts (16) and he’s turned them into three red zone touchdowns to date. Trey Benson had zero offensive touches in Week 5 and has yet to finish as a top-48 RB, while Emari Demercardo occasionally spells Conner, but has 12 total touches this year.
How I see James Conner as heart and soul of the #AZCardinals offense in a single play. Workhorsing his way to 8 yards. pic.twitter.com/t1m7hnCUaH
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) October 9, 2024
FanDuel
Tony Pollard (TEN): $7,000 vs. IND
The Titans backfield has consistently been a 60-40 split in favor of Tony Pollard who averages 15.2 rush attempts per game and 4.0 targets, compared to Tyjae Spears‘s 6.7 rushes and 3.0 targets. Pollard for his part has been solid, averaging 4.0 missed tackles per game and ranking seventh in yards after contact per game. The Colts allow the ninth most running back fantasy points and three different running backs have gone over 100 total yards against them, including most recently, Tank Bigsby in Week 5.
Chase Brown (CIN): $5,400 vs. NYG
Zack Moss is struggling for health, banged up and missing practice on Wednesday before a very limited practice on Thursday. Moss has also seen his opportunity share decline for four straight weeks to a season-low 46% in Week 5, meanwhile, hit a season-high 53% in the loss to the Ravens. Brown has consecutive games with 16 or more PPR points and has bagged three touchdowns in that time. If Moss can’t play or is limited in anyway, it’s wheels up for Chase Brown.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (BAL): $6,500 vs. WAS
Through five games Zay Flowers has established himself firmly as the Ravens lead target in the passing game with three double-digit target games. The Commanders allow the sixth-most wide receiver fantasy points, including four top-eight finishes in five games and rank 27th in passing defense DVOA. People seem hesitant to play the Ravens in the passing game due to Derrick Henry‘s prowess, for GPP contests that should be music to our ears, particularly when the over/under is above 50 like this one.
Zay Flowers straight NASTY
Everything is vertical, until it's not pic.twitter.com/8gcAyxFqNS
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 9, 2024
Jayden Reed (GB): $7,000 vs. ARI
The Packers haven’t really hit their stride yet with Jordan Love yet to recreate the magic he did in 2023, but that hasn’t stopped Jayden Reed who has 97 or more yards in every game with Love this year. Reed leads the league in yards per target (14.8) and faces a defense allowing the third-highest yards per target (8.14). While the rest of the Packers receivers fight for relevancy we can stick to the upside and known commodity of Reed. Stacking Reed with Jordan Love and Tucker Kraft makes for a great stack, with the ability to add James Conner as a bringback potentially giving you access to a huge amount of this games points.
FanDuel
Diontae Johnson (CAR): $6,900 vs. Falcons
Despite the Panthers being miserable on offense till Andy Dalton took to the lineup, Diontae Johnson leads the league in red zone targets (10) and has averaged 11.0 targets per game with Dalton at the helm. Last weeks game against the Bears was always a potential disappointment spot with their pass defense grading out excellently so far, but the Falcons are a less-daunting opponent ranking 14th against the pass having given up five performances of 16 points or more.
Darnell Mooney (ATL): $6,500 vs. CAR
Speaking of the Falcons, much attention will rightly be on Drake London as he ascends to the top-tier of wide receivers but it shouldn’t be ignored what Darnell Mooney is doing. Mooney is averaging 9.25 targets per game since Week 2 (15th most) and plays a Panthers defense allowing the tenth-most WR points and ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA. Mooney can be used either as leverage against the more expensive London, or double-stacked with him in the hopes this game explodes in fantasy value.
Tight Ends
DrafKings & FanDuel
Jake Ferguson (DAL): $5,000 vs. DET ($6,100 on FanDuel)
The Cowboys are depleted when it comes to pass-catchers with Brandin Cooks on injured reserve, further the opportunities that can be afford to Jake Ferguson. After missing Week 2, Ferguson has been very consistent at an inconsistent position finishing as TE3, 6 and 7, averaging 6.3 catches for 71.3 yards. Ferguson has done all this without getting into the end zone, which is somewhat surprising given he hit 24 red zone targets in 2023. If the Cowboys remember how good Ferguson is in the red zone it can truly be wheels up for him.
Jake Ferguson is looking like the best value TE you can get this year for fantasy football! pic.twitter.com/pBxwxt6jAp
— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) October 11, 2024
Tucker Kraft (GB): $4,800 vs. ARI ($6,000 on FanDuel)
The path is now clear for Tucker Kraft to be a top-5 option for the rest of the season with Luke Musgrave on injured reserve for at least the next four weeks. Musgrave averaged 7.3 PPR points per game over the first 11 weeks of the 2023 season, finishing with double-digit points on only two occasions, while playing on 70% of the snaps, which kept fellow rookie tight end, Kraft down to a 31% snap share. Kraft went on to play well in Musgrave’s absence from Week 12 onwards, while Musgrave dealt with a lacerated kidney, Kraft averaged 10.5 PPR points and had double-digit points in four of the six games. Musgrave might have started 2023 as the clear TE1 in Green Bay, but it was clear Kraft had bigger potential and we’ve seen that carry into this year with Kraft having back-to-back TE1 performances and now faces a defense that just allowed George Kittle to put 8/64/1.
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