NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)

Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

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Week 5 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Justin Jefferson‘s 214 air yards down to Christian Kirk‘s 60. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 5. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 5 Air Yards Data

Vikings Hit By Some Jets

Both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison were in the top six among all receivers in total air yards in Week 5. Jefferson finished with a league-high 214 while Addison was not far behind with 153. Together, they also saw 22 targets. The problem, however, was all that volume only resulted in nine catches for 128 total yards and zero touchdowns. The New York Jets are a notoriously tough team to pass against, but Sam Darnold took that to another level, finishing his first game of the season with zero touchdown passes.

The positive takeaway from this game is that the Vikings are passing more and will continue to do so with Aaron Jones banged up. On the season, the Vikings pass at a 51% clip, which was up to 55% on Sunday. The Vikings are third in yards per pass attempt this year (8.2) and fifth in yards per completion (11.8), so the big play opportunities are there for Jefferson and Addison. Once they add T.J. Hockenson back to the mix in a couple of weeks this could evolve into one of the more pass-friendly and explosive offenses in football. Yes, even with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

The Amari Cooper Conundrum

This Amari Cooper situation is getting out of control. Once again, he had a massive number of air yards — 183 in Week 5. This time, they only resulted in 60 receiving yards because he has the corpse of Deshaun Watson throwing him the football every week. Amari Cooper leads the NFL in air yards with 653 — 83 more than Rashid Shaheed. He also is first in unrealized air yards with 344. A full 53% of his air yards have been either uncatchable or dropped. It's simply unreal at this point.

Cooper is third in targets, 11th in target share and first in routes run. Those numbers plus the air yards should be generating top-five receiver numbers. However, Cooper is 86th in yards per route run and 35th in total fantasy points. The only reason he is that high is because of one week where he scored more than 20 points. Otherwise, it's been eight points or fewer every week. I think Deshaun Watson is broken and can't see how Cooper can maintain even WR2 status unless he continues to have overwhelming volume every single week.

Brian Thomas Jr: YAC Monster

The day Brian Thomas Jr. had against the Indianapolis Colts looks very good in fantasy football box scores. He caught five of his eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. He had 109 air yards, which was top-20 at the position in Week 5. But while those numbers are impressive, it doesn't quite tell the story of how much of a breakout season Thomas is having as a rookie. With this performance, Thomas is now the WR7 in total fantasy points in half-PPR formats and there is one clear reason why: Yards after the catch.

Among wide receivers with at least 25 targets this season, Thomas ranks seventh in yards after the catch per reception (6.77). He is ninth with 149 total yards after the catch despite seven of the eight players above him having more targets this season. In terms of yards per route run, Thomas is sixth among wide receivers in yards per route run (2.88 yards). Three of the names above him (Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, Jauan Jennings) are hurt or moved back to part-time roles. Thomas has a very real shot of ending the year as a top-five fantasy wide receiver in his rookie season.

Buy Low on Rams Pass-Catchers

Will we see Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the next couple of weeks? That is still to be determined, but if they are slower to return, there is a buying opportunity on Rams pass-catchers who are playing. The contest against Green Bay in Week 5 was an awful showing all the way around despite what could have been a much bigger day for guys like Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Colby Parkinson. Those three players amassed 290 air yards but just 91 total receiving yards.

Jordan Whittington had his day plagued by a couple of horrific drops. His seven catches for 89 yards could have been much better. Whittington, Parkinson and Atwell each saw at least 10 targets. That kind of focused distribution should continue until the big two (Kupp & Nacua) return. There have been rumblings about Matthew Stafford losing a step or two, but he is fifth among quarterbacks in accuracy rating and second in clean-pocket completion percentage. There is positive regression coming for all.