NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)

Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

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Week 4 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Dontayvion Wicks‘ 200 air yards down to Josh Downs‘ 60. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 4. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 4 Air Yards Data

Sticky Wicks

With Christian Watson going down to an ankle injury on Sunday, it became the Dontayvion Wicks show in Green Bay. Wicks saw 200 air yards over 13 targets, which was good for a 24% target share and a 34.8% air yards share. As you can see above, Wicks' day could have been much bigger. He led the league in air yards but only caught five of 13 targets for 78 yards. Add in a few more receptions and we would be talking about one of the season's greatest wide receiver performances.

We don't have an exact timeframe for how long Watson will be out, but Wicks is going to get a boost in usage regardless. Wicks jumped from 46% of the snaps in Week 3 to 76% in Week 4. He had more targets in that game than in his other three games combined. Can we count on 13 targets and 200 air yards every week? No, but with some increased efficiency, even 8-10 targets and 125 air yards could mean big things for Wicks.

Are We Going to Die on That Hill?

The discrepancy between Tyreek Hill's 129 air yards and his actual 23 receiving yards sticks out on this table. The problem is, with no other option right now besides Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson, how much do we expect positive regression for Hill in the weeks to come?

The fact Hill had a very strong 18.4 aDOT but caught just four passes for 23 yards speaks to how inaccurate Huntley was with deep balls on Monday night. The Dolphins have to find a way to get Hill in more crossing screens or underneath plays where he can just have his speed take over.

Tyreek Hill only had 35 air yards in Week 3, so this is certainly an improvement, but he managed 40 receiving yards on three receptions. Maybe Hill's path to success doesn't rely on deep throws in the weeks to come, but on lower air yards and higher success rate throws.

George Pickens Emerges

Which player led the entire NFL in percentage of his team's air yards in Week 4 (non-Dolphins edition)? It wasn't Wicks or Courtland Sutton or Malik Nabers. George Pickens has emerged in Pittsburgh as a real threat based on how well Justin Fields is playing. He added to an already strong season with 11 targets for seven catches and 113 yards on Sunday.

At 54.7%, George Pickens now leads the entire NFL in air yards share over the first four weeks. He has a strong 12.9-yard aDOT, which is a good number and puts him in the company of players like Nico Collins, Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin. It's noticeable Pickens doesn't have an aDOT in the neighborhood of 15+ yards as he has in the past. His more manageable and catchable targets are leading to massive production while teams have to focus on making sure Fields doesn't scramble in the open field against them.

Acquire Jakobi Meyers

Davante Adams wanting a trade is potentially extremely important for Jakobi Meyers' fantasy prospects. Whether or not that trade happens remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be shocked it Adams does not play another down for Las Vegas. He wants out. Why would Antonio Pierce play him? Perhaps already preparing, Meyers saw 10 targets on Sunday for a strong 104 air yards.

It was not Gardner Minshew's most accurate game as a pro. Meyers caught just five passes for 49 yards. Brock Bowers had his first dud game. But Meyers got 41.7% of the team's targets and 52.5% of their air yards. Las Vegas is currently calling pass plays on almost 64% of their snaps (fourth in the NFL), so potentially 25% of targets opening up for Meyers would be huge for him and make him an easy fantasy start sit option.