Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favour in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start-sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in Fantasy Football air yards.
Week 8 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below is a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards are a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Zay Flowers‘ 195 air yards down to Parker Washington‘s 57. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us many takeaways from Week 8. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.
Top Takeaways From Week 8 Air Yards Data
Joe Flacco To The Rescue
Just look at the air yards for all of the Indianapolis Colts receivers compared to their actual receiving yards in Week 8. Michael Pittman has 132 air yards and 16 receiving yards. Alec Pierce is at 99 air yards and 11 receiving yards. Adonai Mitchell with 81 air yards and nine receiving yards. The only reason Josh Downs looks good is because he caught the only long pass that connected against the Texans in Week 8 (a 69-yard touchdown). We can have a debate about whether or not Anthony Richardson needs to throw long passes or whether or not the receivers have had too many drops. But these numbers make it clear that moving to Joe Flacco right now is the best move.
Flacco gives an immediate boost to all Colts' receivers moving forward. Flacco has already completed 66% of his passes this year for seven touchdowns and one interception. Compare that to Richardson, who is at 44.4% and has thrown four touchdowns and seven picks in six games. Not only will the receivers see better targets, but my prediction is the Colts will begin to throw the ball more. They are 19th in the league with a 54% pass-play percentage. If that even creeps up two or three percentage points, the sky is the limit for Indianapolis wide receivers under Joe Flacco.
Won't You Be My Nabers?
Seeing 13 targets and 191 air yards, Malik Nabers is a thing of beauty and certainly what we want out of him for our fantasy football rosters. What is becoming concerning, however, is that there are too many weeks where Daniel Jones can not convert that massive volume into catchable targets for Nabers. Yes, there is an issue with double teams as well (I mean, who else are defensive backs against the Giants going to cover?), but Jones needs to deliver better balls to Nabers. According to Player Profiler, Nabers has a 102.6 quarterback rating on the targets thrown to him this year, which is 34th in the NFL.
Malik Nabers is second to only Terry McLaurin in total air yards this season, and that is with Nabers missing two full games with a concussion. However, he is only 15th among wide receivers with 498 receiving yards. Traditionally, this much volume and usage (he has a 27.3% target share) will result in strong fantasy numbers, especially in PPR formats. The gauntlet of games against the Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers is now over, and the schedule is about to really open up. His next four contests are against the Commanders, Panthers, Buccaneers, and Cowboys. Those are all good matchups for wide receivers and might propel Nabers to the fantasy finishes we have been hoping for.
Calvin Ridley Last Man Standing
What did Calvin Ridley do in his first game in the post-DeAndre Hopking era? Just 15 targets for 167 air yards which led to 10 catches and 143 receiving yards (plus one rush attempt). All other pass-catchers on the Titans saw 19 combined targets. Yes, this was with Mason Rudolph playing and not Will Levis. And yes, the Titans were down about 80 points for this entire game, but it shows just how much the Tennessee Titans will prioritize Ridley moving forward.
For the week, only CeeDee Lamb had more targets and receiving yards than Ridley. During the season, Ridley has gotten up to 802 air yards, ranking fourth in the entire NFL. What has been disappointing is that all the volume and usage have resulted in just one touchdown through the air this year. Part of that is quarterback play, but really it's just bad luck to have just 318 receiving yards on 802 air yards. That should regress somewhat back to a positive outcome, and we should reasonably expect more touchdowns for Ridley in the second half.
Pick Up Parker Washington
All the way at the bottom of the list is backup wide receiver Parker Washington for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He saw 57 air yards in Week 8, mostly after Christian Kirk went down with a collarbone injury. And that's where things get interesting for Washington for the rest of the season. Before he left the game, Kirk had five targets for 105 air yards. Some crude math can show us that if we combine what Washington and Kirk did in this game, it would be an elite showing of nine targets and 162 air yards. I don't expect there to be a one-for-one exchange with Washington taking over for Kirk for the rest of the season, but if he made it through your waiver wire somehow, Washington is a receiver worth grabbing.
Last season in a part-time role when players were injured, Washington turned 21 targets into 16 receptions and two touchdowns. He had a 76% catch rate and averaged over eight yards per reception. The Jaguars - partly because they are always trailing - are passing at the 10th-highest rate in the league this year, so a cheap piece of this passing game can make for a nice WR3 of FLEX option in many weeks.
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