The bye-pocalypse is looming. We only have two teams sitting out this week, but look at the bye schedule for the next six weeks:
- Week 9: PIT, SF
- Week 10: CLE, GB, LV, SEA
- Week 11: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB
- Week 12: ATL, BUF, CIN, JAC, NO, NYJ
- Week 13: No Byes
- Week 14: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WAS
This means, while we’re all jockeying for playoff spots in the closing weeks of the fantasy regular season, tons of players are going to be on bye, making bench spots and waiver priority extremely valuable. It’s going to be very hard to justify a bench spot for a defense in weeks 10-12 and 14, so it’s very worth planning ahead this week and again in Week 13. As such, here is a list of defenses that I think could be worth rostering right now to target their matchups in weeks 10-12.
- Minnesota Vikings: The vikings are a good start against the Colts this week, and follow that up with two more good matchups @JAC in Week 10 and @TEN in Week 11.
- Los Angeles Chargers: This week is the start of three good matchups for an excellent defense: @CLE, vs TEN and vs CIN in weeks 9-11.
- Buffalo Bills: If you can hold them through this week’s game against Miami, the Bills have an excellent matchup @IND in Week 10.
- Houston Texans: The Texans are playable against the Jets this week, and if you do that I suggest holding them through the Lions matchup to get to Week 11 @DAL and Week 12 vs TEN.
- Detroit Lions: The Lions have back-to-back tough matchups this week and next week @GB and @HOU, but they should pay off in Week 11 vs JAC and Week 12 @ IND.
- New York Giants: The Giants are not usable against the Commanders this week, but their pass rush should terrorize the Panthers at home in Week 10.
Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 9)
There are only two teams on bye this week (PIT and SF), but it’s still not the juiciest week for streaming, due to a dwindling number of truly awful offenses, and many of the better defenses facing tough matchups. Fortunately a few of the top options are available in a majority of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter and Threads.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | NO | @CAR | Bryce Young | 19 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.32 | 33% |
| 2 | WAS | @NYG | Daniel Jones | 20 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 6.95 | 12% |
| 3 | TEN | NE | Jacoby Brissett | 17.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 6.88 | 2% |
| 4 | MIN | IND | Anthony Richardson | 19.75 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 6.79 | 85% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 5 | KC | TB | Baker Mayfield | 17.75 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6.76 | 90% |
| 6 | CIN | LV | Gardner Minshew II | 18.75 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.75 | 31% |
| 7 | HOU | @NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 19.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.51 | 57% |
| 8 | LAC | @CLE | Jameis Winston | 20.25 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 6.48 | 65% |
| 9 | PHI | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 19.25 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 6.45 | 52% |
| 10 | NE | @TEN | Mason Rudolph | 20.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.43 | 5% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | BAL | DEN | Bo Nix | 17.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.33 | 91% |
| 12 | ARI | CHI | Caleb Williams | 21.75 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.32 | 2% |
| 13 | NYJ | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 20.25 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.10 | 88% |
| 14 | CLE | LAC | Justin Herbert | 22.25 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5.83 | 49% |
| 15 | CHI | @ARI | Kyler Murray | 22.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.67 | 59% |
| 16 | LAR | @SEA | Geno Smith | 23.75 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5.66 | 11% |
| 17 | SEA | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 24.75 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5.63 | 15% |
| 18 | LV | @CIN | Joe Burrow | 26.25 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5.37 | 6% |
| 19 | BUF | MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 21.25 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.36 | 78% |
| 20 | DET | @GB | Jordan Love | 22 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.30 | 72% |
| 21 | IND | @MIN | Sam Darnold | 25.75 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.24 | 15% |
| 22 | NYG | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 23.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.10 | 6% |
| 23 | ATL | DAL | Dak Prescott | 24.75 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.82 | 10% |
| 24 | DEN | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 27 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.75 | 88% |
| 25 | GB | DET | Jared Goff | 25.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.69 | 55% |
| 26 | DAL | @ATL | Kirk Cousins | 27.25 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 4.57 | 36% |
| 27 | JAC | @PHI | Jalen Hurts | 26.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.54 | 7% |
| 28 | MIA | @BUF | Josh Allen | 27.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.30 | 29% |
| 29 | CAR | NO | Derek Carr | 26 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4.29 | 1% |
| 30 | TB | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 26.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.25 | 12% |
Matchups
- NO @ CAR: Bryce Young returned to the Panthers’ starting QB job last week, while Andy Dalton was sidelined with a thumb injury resulting from a car accident. Young exceeded expectations against an excellent Broncos defense, but that just speaks to how low expectations were. The Panthers managed just 14 points with Young, who also threw two interceptions. The Saints might be a bottom-5 defense in a real world sense, but that is still good enough to handle a matchup as good as the Panthers as long as Young is playing. If Dalton is able to return this week I’m not particularly interested in the Saints defense, but they are a locked-and-loaded starter against Young.
- WAS @ NYG: The Commanders were supposed to be one of the worst defenses in football, but week over week they continue to defy that narrative. Last week they met a Bears team where Caleb Williams had been making a strong rookie of the year case and held them to just 15 points. Washington has shown they can take care of three good matchups in the last five weeks against Arizona, Cleveland and Carolina, and they get another good one this week. The Giants seem committed to running their entire offense through a single highly-drafted skill player. It didn’t work when that was Saquon Barkley, and it doesn’t work with Malik Nabers now. Daniel Jones offers high sack potential and not a lot of scoring, even if he doesn’t turn the ball over as often as we’d like.
- TEN vs NE: Drake Maye left last week’s game against the Jets with a concussion, so we saw Jacoby Brissett return to action. Brissett was awful in five starts earlier this season, taking 3.4 sacks per game and failing to take the team over 20 points. Maye has shown flashes of being able to cope with New England’s terrible offensive line, Brissett has not. If Maye fails to clear concussion protocol and Brissett starts again, the Titans are an excellent play this week. If Maye starts, the Titans are still a decent fantasy play, but a much less exciting one. Maye reminds of early-season Bo Nix a bit, in that he’s figuring out how to avoid turnovers and sacks, but has yet to put up a scary point total.
- MIN vs IND: Since Deshaun Watson vacated the title, Anthony Richardson is officially the worst quarterback in football. If the goal was to win games, the Colts would just be starting Joe Flacco, but it does make sense that they’d give their 2023 fourth overall pick a long leash – he is basically a rookie still, with just 10 games under his belt. While he might be an athletic runner and have a big arm, Richardson is just not operating as a passer at the NFL level, completing just 20/56 (35.7%) of his passes in his last two games since returning from an oblique injury.
- KC vs TB: Last week we got our first look at the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin at receiver. The news is… good for Cade Otton‘s fantasy managers. The Bucs were still a real offense against a so-so Falcons defense, but they have tougher test this weekend against an undefeated Chiefs defense that just upgraded their pass rush by trading for Joshua Uche from the Patriots.
- CIN vs LV: Gardner Minshew II had his best game of the season in a statistical sense last week, but that only resulted in 20 team points while making the Chiefs the #6 defense in fantasy, thanks largely to 5 sacks. The Bengals have had their struggles this year, but they should still be able to handle a matchup this good while playing at home.
- HOU @ NYJ: The Jets’ plan to turn over control of the franchize to Aaron Rodgers is an abject failure. This is not a surprise – why would recreating all the personnel of an offense that was good in 2020 work four years later? Good defenses like the Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Steelers have turned in solid fantasy performances against the Jets this year, and the Texans are next in line. I expect to see Aaron Rodgers on the ground a lot against a Texans team that’s third in sacks this season.
- LAC @ CLE: Jameis Winston proved everyone right when he turned out to be a huge upgrade over Deshaun Watson, taking the Browns over 20 points for the first time this season in a big upset win over the Ravens. Winston is every bit the player we saw in Tampa Bay – he is going to sling the rock downfield without too much concern over which team is going to catch it. The Ravens are an extremely unbalanced defense – one of the best against the run and one of the worst against the pass. I expect him to face more resistance and get punished for his errors against a Chargers defense that’s quite good.
- PHI vs JAC: The Jaguars have an offense that I would describe as “mid,” and they received a downgrade last week when WR Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending broken collarbone. Trevor Lawrence might not be the most consistent source of turnovers and sacks, but he has reached the 3 sack mark in 4 out of 8 games this season, and is coming off a performance with an interception and a fumble against the Packers last week.
- NE @ TEN: I don’t know if this week will see the return of Will Levis, who has missed two games with an AC sprain. This rank reflects an expectation that Mason Rudolph will start again. Rudolph has fit our expectations for a backup quarterback in two pretty terrible matchups against the Bills and Lions. The Patriots are not on that level, but should still be a reasonable low-end fantasy starter against either of the Titans’ quarterbacks. At just 5% rostership, you shouldn’t need to dig any deeper than the Patriots for a streaming defense.