We’re a third of the way through the season, and while we have a good idea of the quality of most of the offenses in the NFL. But a few are still in flux, including two teams that saw a rookie quarterback make his first start. So let’s check in on the five rookie QBs playing in the NFL right now:
- Drake Maye, the third overall pick, made his first start for the Patriots last week against the Texans. The Patriots offense had been horrible with Jacoby Brissett, and a big part of that was the awful offensive line. Maye played extremely well considering the circumstances and lived up to his draft spot, relative to what we usually see from even the best rookie QBs in their first game. Maye threw three touchdowns and two interceptions, but only one of those picks was really his fault. One was a tipped pass followed by a really impressive catch by the defender. The Texans pass rush pressured Maye a ridiculous 34 times, so it’s honestly impressive that he only took 4 sacks. He won’t have to play the Texans every week, but he will have to play behind this same line every week, so I expect plenty more sacks in his near future. Maye is looking like he’ll develop into quite a good quarterback, but for now – and possibly for the rest of the season – he’s a reasonable target for fantasy defenses.
- Spencer Rattler, a fifth-round pick, made the start for New Orleans in the absence of Derek Carr. Carr sustained an oblique injury in Week 5 and is expected to be out multiple weeks, so we’ll see Rattler at least a couple more times. Rattler showed some positive signs including with his legs, but has some room to improve with his throw accuracy, which led to two interceptions in the 4th quarter. Rattler also took 5 sacks, which is quite the contrast with Carr who had exactly 1 sack per game this season. Rattler is a good fantasy defense target as long as he is starting.
- Bo Nix was drafted 12th overall by the Broncos and has been starting all year. He has shown some promising signs in areas where rookies usually struggle. With the help of a pretty good offensive line, he’s taken just 1.5 sacks per game. With interceptions he had a rocky first couple of games, but has thrown just 1 pick in his last 4 games. Despite this the offense has been very hot and cold, and ultimately been 4th-worst in yards per game and in the bottom third of the league in points per game. The Broncos are a reasonable target for good defenses, albeit one with a low ceiling due to the sack and turnover situation.
- Caleb Williams, the Bears’ first overall pick, has been getting better every game and by Week 6 that has reached the level of genuinely very good. Last week against the Jaguars, Williams displayed some excellent decision making and threw four touchdowns, including a couple of very tight throws to Keenan Allen. His only real mistake was an underthrown deep ball for an interception. With Caleb Williams and a good defense the Bears are genuine contenders, and firmly in the “avoid” category for even the best fantasy defenses.
- Jayden Daniels, second overall pick for the Commanders, is him. Daniels is a quick and decisive runner, but to call him a running quarterback would undersell the fact that he is an excellent passer. The connection with Terry McLaurin is starting to click and I expect great things from them going forward. Not only is Daniels the frontrunner for rookie of the year, but he’s an actual contender for NFL MVP, currently 6th in odds for that award. The Commanders are not an offense you can start any fantasy defense against.
Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice (Week 7)
There is a merciful lull in the byes this week, with just two teams sitting out – Chicago and Dallas. Neither is an offense we really want to target with defenses, so the impact on streaming is low. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter and Threads.
Week 7 D/ST Projections
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | DEN | @NO | Spencer Rattler | 17.75 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.90 | 80% |
| 2 | BUF | TEN | Will Levis | 17 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.88 | 79% |
| 3 | CIN | @CLE | Deshaun Watson | 19 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.22 | 16% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 4 | NYJ | @PIT | Justin Fields | 17.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 7.18 | 86% |
| 5 | JAC | NE | Drake Maye | 18.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 7.17 | 4% |
| 6 | PHI | @NYG | Daniel Jones | 20 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.62 | 86% |
| 7 | PIT | NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 19 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.22 | 97% |
| 8 | LAR | LV | Aidan O’Connell | 19 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6.17 | 2% |
| 9 | LAC | @ARI | Kyler Murray | 20.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.15 | 56% |
| 10 | NO | DEN | Bo Nix | 19.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.91 | 34% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | CLE | CIN | Joe Burrow | 24 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 5.84 | 61% |
| 12 | BAL | @TB | Baker Mayfield | 22.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.79 | 78% |
| 13 | GB | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 22.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5.70 | 46% |
| 14 | WAS | CAR | Andy Dalton | 22.25 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.69 | 4% |
| 15 | IND | MIA | Tyler Huntley | 20 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5.67 | 26% |
| 16 | LV | @LAR | Matthew Stafford | 24.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5.62 | 16% |
| 17 | NYG | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 23 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.55 | 3% |
| 18 | ATL | SEA | Geno Smith | 23.75 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5.52 | 23% |
| 19 | DET | @MIN | Sam Darnold | 26 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 5.34 | 14% |
| 20 | ARI | LAC | Justin Herbert | 23 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.33 | 1% |
| 21 | MIN | DET | Jared Goff | 23.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.25 | 77% |
| 22 | NE | @JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 24 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5.24 | 9% |
| 23 | SF | KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 22.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.09 | 97% |
| 24 | MIA | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 23.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5.04 | 31% |
| 25 | KC | @SF | Brock Purdy | 24 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.03 | 60% |
| 26 | TB | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 25.75 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.93 | 35% |
| 27 | TEN | @BUF | Josh Allen | 25.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.91 | 3% |
| 28 | SEA | @ATL | Kirk Cousins | 26.75 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4.81 | 28% |
| 29 | HOU | @GB | Jordan Love | 25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.80 | 83% |
| 30 | CAR | @WAS | Jayden Daniels | 29.75 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3.74 | 1% |
Matchups
- DEN @ NO: The Broncos lost superstar cornerback Pat Surtain to a concussion early in last week’s game and his absence was felt immediately. PS2’s quality in man coverage is a big part of how the Broncos were able to blitz at the highest rate in the league, and that fell off with him sidelined. The Broncos play on Thursday this week which means there is zero chance of Surtain clearing protocol in time. Fortunately they get to face rookie QB Spencer Rattler in his second career start. Rattler is not bad relative to expectations for a 5th-round rookie just starting out, but he still provides high potential for both sacks and interceptions for a good defense.
- BUF vs TEN: Will Levis, for all his silly mistakes, has managed to avoid taking a sack in two consecutive games. That does not mean he played well, and indeed Levis has continued his streak of throwing at least one interception every game, bringing him to a total of 10 turnovers (7 picks, 3 lost fumbles) in five games. I expect the Bills defense can bring him down a few times and capitalize on mistakes.
- CIN @ CLE: Deshaun Watson is playing on a level we don’t usually see in the NFL for any extended period of time, because any other player would lose their job pretty quickly playing like this. Watson is the exception because of the guaranteed $92 million on his contract, which would take up over a third of next year’s cap space if they cut him this season. As fantasy players, all we can do is point and laugh at the Browns’ misfortune, and take advantage of the great matchup for defenses.
- NYJ @ PIT: Justin Fields has played well enough to keep the starting job, at least for now, despite Russell Wilson being healthy enough to play. Fields has kept the turnovers to a minimum and led the team to a 4-2 record, but done it without operating a particularly high-powered offense. Last week’s 32 point result was only their second time exceeding 20 points, and Fields has had a steady diet of 2.7 sacks per game on average. This is a medium-good matchup for a good defense, and that adds up to a very reasonable start in fantasy.
- JAC vs NE: Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye lived up to his draft pedigree as the third overall pick in the draft last week, but he still had to contend with playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Jaguars pass rush is not on the level he faced against the Texans last week, but they should be able to get to him a few times and take advantage of the turnover potential.
- PHI @ NYG: Daniel Jones is in that awkward spot where he’s just barely good enough to be an NFL starter. He keeps the sacks and turnovers to reasonable levels, but leads an offense that put up a truly embarrassing 7 points against the Bengals last week. The Eagles are better on defense than the Bengals, and a clear fantasy starter this week.
- PIT vs NYJ: Aaron Rodgers has really only looked like his old self in one game against a struggling Patriots team. The Jets’ poor performances have been against some quality defenses like the 49ers, Broncos and Vikings. I expect the struggles to continue against a Steelers defense that is also quite good. The Jets just traded for Davante Adams, reuniting him with Rodgers. Their experience together should mean this is a legitimate upgrade – we’ve seen what Allen Lazard has been able to do with Rodgers. But I don’t really expect the impact to be huge in the very first game.
- LAR vs LV: Aidan O’Connell has not played well enough to clearly capture the starting job from Gardner Minshew II, but I’m expecting that he will start again this week. O’Connell does not offer a ton of sack potential, but a weak offense that just traded their best receiver (Davante Adams) is still a good matchup.
- LAC @ ARI: Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have really struggled this season. Even though Murray might not offer a ton of sacks and turnovers himself, as a team they are tied for second-most fumbles per game with 1.7. Rookie superstar receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. left last week’s game with a concussion. This is a Monday night game so he has one more day to clear protocol, but I would not be surprised if he sat out this week. The Chargers are a top-5 defense and startable in a lot of matchups, and the Cardinals certainly qualify.
- NO vs DEN: Bo Nix has been hot and cold so far this year. He has done well to keep the sacks and turnovers down, but at the end of the day he’s still a rookie QB with a long way to go before reaching franchize QB status. This is a reasonable matchup for a Saints defense playing at home.