Imagine living in a world where we could draft our teams over again with the knowledge we have from the first eight weeks of the season. Well, I regret to inform you that I am not capable of time travelling, but it’s fun to pretend. Not only are these insights helpful if you find yourself with a time machine, but they also help tell the story of this season and where it is going.
Let’s take a look.
If Your Fantasy Football League Drafted Today
Lamar Jackson Would Be The Only Elite Quarterback Worth Taking Early
The top two fantasy-scoring quarterbacks, far and away, are Lamar Jackson with 204.1 points and Baker Mayfield with 193.5. Mayfield will continue to be a QB1, but it’s difficult to see him sustaining this pace after losing Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for the foreseeable future. Jackson, on the other hand, is positioning himself to be a top MVP candidate yet again and just added Diontae Johnson to his arsenal of weapons. Jayden Daniels comes in at QB3, but the difference between QB3 and QB12 is just 34 points. The difference between QB3 and QB16 is roughly 40 points. Some of these players have missed games due to injury. Some have had bye weeks while others have not, to be fair. If we look at points per game, Jackson and Mayfield are at 25.5 and 24.2 points, respectively, while Jalen Hurts sits at 21.6, Daniels at 20.5, and Josh Allen at 20. There is less than a three-point differential between QB3 Jalen Hurts and QB12 Jared Goff (17.8). Scrolling all the way down to C.J. Stroud at QB22 shows a 6.3 PPG difference between him and Jalen Hurts. Don’t get me wrong, these points matter, but in terms of positional value, they can be made up at other positions with more certainty. Bo Nix is ascending, Russell Wilson is looking sharp, Tua Tagovailoa just returned from a concussion, and Drake Maye looks like a star. You have many options as the position is relatively flat after the top tier.
Get Yourself A Hero RB, And Then Get Uncomfortable At The Position
Of the top 12 drafted running backs, six of them are currently RB1s in total points, and six of them are RB1s in PPG. If we look at PPG, only six of the top 24 running backs were drafted outside of that range, and only three were taken outside of the top 31 picks at running back. This includes Kareem Hunt, J.K. Dobbins, and Chuba Hubbard. The order of these running backs is where it gets weird, as Derrick Henry is RB1 in PPG after going as RB8, and Joe Mixon is RB2 after going at RB15. Breece Hall, taken as the RB2, is down at RB16 in PPG but RB8 overall, while the drafted RB1 Christian McCaffery has yet to play this season.
Whether you prefer Henry, Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs or one of the other names near the top, it’s best for business to snag one of them early and rely on them, as things get weird as they usually do at running back. After drafting your top back, it’s perfectly acceptable to wait for a run on the position, but after that, we get uncomfortable with guys outperforming their pre-season projections. Tyrone Tracy is the RB33 overall and RB37 in PPG, but he is just getting started as the feature back in the Giants backfield after being drafted as the RB58. Alexander Mattison was being drafted as the RB60 but is currently RB25 overall and RB28 in PPG, while Bucky Irving and Tank Bigsby sit at RB27 and RB29, respectively, after being drafted as RB53 and RB59. Who would you take the rest of the season between Bigsby and Travis Etienne, who was drafted as the RB7 and is currently RB40? It’s time to get uncomfortable! The RB3 range is littered with players who were drafted much later prior to the season, and many of them still have an upward trajectory.
Take A Top Wide Receiver, It Gets Unpredictable After That
Spoiler alert: I’m not a doctor. I’m not here to predict or analyze injuries, but they’ve unfortunately become a big storyline of the NFL season, particularly among wide receivers. Not only have top targets like Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp missed time, but we’ve also seen quarterback injuries have an impact on receivers in Miami and New Orleans, among others. Chris Godwin, who was having a career year, suffered another season-ending injury, Mike Evans is on IR, and Brandon Aiyuk‘s week 7 ended with a torn ACL and MCL. The list goes on and on, but we’ve also seen many WR2s and WR3s stumble through the first eight weeks of the season.
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave, all highly drafted, have struggled thus far, in part due to the quarterback play. Keenan Allen, drafted as WR33, currently sits at WR78 overall and WR56 in PPG. Tank Dell was drafted as the WR29 but is WR59 overall and WR60 in PPG. It’s a similar story with players like Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Calvin Ridley, and Amari Cooper. You can make the case that some of these players have recently improved their surroundings, but they were drafted to be reliable WR2/3s in your lineup on a weekly basis. Would Davante Adams still go as WR10 while sitting at WR37 in PPG, even after reuniting with Aaron Rodgers?
So, who is filling these spots? More injured players like Rashid Shaheed and Rashee Rice were outperforming their ADPs before landing on IR. Jauan Jennings stepped up with various 49ers injuries. In addition, we’ve seen some “boring” picks return a massive payoff. Darnell Mooney, drafted as WR68, has found his home in Atlanta with Kirk Cousins, delivering WR2 numbers. We’ve finally gotten our Jameson Williams breakout, Khalil Shakir has stepped up in the Bills offense, and Jakobi Meyers has been his steady, consistent self with Adams out of the way. Josh Downs saw his value deflate with the arrival of Adonai Mitchell, but Downs has been the Colts best wide receiver and is posting WR2 numbers. Allen Lazard went from an afterthought to fantasy relevant, while Brian Thomas Jr. is that dude, currently sitting at WR5 overall and WR10 in PPG.
It’s typical to see this kind of mayhem at the running back position but wide receiver tends to be more predictable. Many of the top receivers, like A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb, are still delivering high value. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and D.K. Metcalf have all been very good, while players like Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers, and Jayden Reed have taken a leap forward. If we were drafting today, you would likely need one, possibly two, of these guys to compete truly. Outside of the top-end receivers, however, it’s mostly unpredictable. Will Shakir continue to be the guy in Buffalo? Will Zay Flowers take a step back with Diontae Johnson in town? Can Darnell Mooney continue his hot start? Will Pittman, Olave, or any of the Bears wide receiver trio get going? There are more questions than answers in this bucket, so you’d better get a bankable, top-flight wide receiver.
There’s No Consensus At Tight End – You’re Better Off Waiting
I mean, what did you expect? Do you think your sleeper tight end would take off this season? That probably hasn’t happened, but more significant is the drop-off from a few of the elite tight ends. George Kittle has been the top tight end, and it’s not remotely close. He’s the only tight end with over 100 half-PPR points, and he’s averaging nearly 4.5 PPG more than the next closest player, Brock Bowers. Kittle was drafted as the TE6, Bowers as the TE11, and Trey McBride, who is third in PPG, was drafted at TE3. After that, it gets interesting.
Tucker Kraft, who wasn’t even the highest-drafted tight end on his own team and was going as the TE38, is now the TE4 in PPG. David Njoku is TE5 in PPG which is not a big surprise, but he was going as the TE10 while our old friend Kyle Pitts is TE6 in PPG. Cole Kmet and Cade Otton are next in PPG and have some of the better rest of season outlooks.
Our routine elite tight ends, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, currently sit at TE9 and TE12 in PPG but were drafted as TE1 and TE4, respectively. Sam LaPorta was supposed to be en route to the consensus TE1 but sits at TE17 in PPG, while breakout favourite Dalton Kincaid is TE16. There are 15 tight ends averaging more than 7 half-PPR PPG, and six of them were drafted outside of the top 15 tight ends. Kraft, Kmet, and Otton are among them, along with Zach Ertz, Hunter Henry, and Isaiah Likely.
The depth at tight end is still extremely flat, and we’ve seen a step back from guys like Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, and Pat Freiermuth, but more than ever, you can piece the position together. In terms of total points, there is just a 19-point difference from TE3 to TE12. With PPG, we see a three-point difference between TE2 and TE12, while there is only a 1.2-point difference between TE13 and TE22. Bowers and McBride are worth considering taking early, but Kittle is the only one that seems truly worth it. Outside of that, you can piece the position together with later picks.
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