As much as we love to analyze this game, and some may be better at doing so than others, nobody could have predicted what we’ve seen so far this season. Did anybody, and I mean anybody, have Alvin Kamara as their RB1 through four weeks? I was higher than the consensus on Nico Collins and Malik Nabers, but I certainly didn’t anticipate them being the top two wide receivers after four weeks.
As much as we love to analyze this game, and some may be better at doing so than others, nobody could have predicted what we’ve seen so far this season. Did anybody, and I mean anybody, have Alvin Kamara as their RB1 through four weeks? I was higher than the consensus on Nico Collins and Malik Nabers, but I certainly didn’t anticipate them being the top two wide receivers after four weeks.
Four weeks is a small enough sample size to be uncertain if these trends will continue, but we can all agree that the low game totals have had a huge impact on our favorite fantasy football players. NFL teams are collectively averaging 21.6 points per game thus far, which would be the lowest total since 2009. To put that in perspective, Daunte Culpepper started five games for the Detroit Lions, Miles Austin was the most improved player and the Broncos still owned the Chiefs (happier times for me).
With all of that in mind, there are many things you would likely do differently if your league drafted today. Let’s zoom in on a few of those.
Early 2024 Fantasy Football Lessons Learned
Fade Early/Elite Tight Ends
Currently, there is just one tight ranked in the top 100 in half-PPR scoring. He was drafted in the 10th round — Dallas Goedert. Goedert as the TE1 can mostly be attributed to his 22-point outburst in Week 3 with no A.J. Brown. Only six tight ends who were drafted have outperformed their average draft position (ADP) slot. Of the top eight tight ends who were drafted within the first six rounds, only George Kittle is averaging over 10 points per game (PPG). Trey McBride is averaging 8.4 PPG. After that, none of those tight ends are above 6.4 PPG. Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta are averaging just 5.9 and 5.2 PPG, respectively, while Mark Andrews looks dusty (2.4 PPG).
Kyle Pitts is as frustrating as ever (5.4 PPG) and Evan Engram hasn’t played since Week 1. Dalton Kincaid‘s breakout is still on hold. The best scoring group of tight ends are the ones who were drafted in the TE12 to TE24 range. Even if you don’t believe in any of those guys for the rest of the season, have you seen anything to make you believe the top tight ends will suddenly pick up the scoring? I have my doubts.
Draft Top Rookies Earlier
This primarily applies to wide receivers and Jayden Daniels. Washington’s quarterback is currently the QB1 and passes the eye test with flying colors. We all knew his rushing could provide immediate value, but his accuracy and touch downfield has taken him to another tier. Outside of Daniels, the biggest rookie impacts have come from the highly touted wide receivers. Marvin Harrison is somewhat of an outlier, as he was being drafted as the 15th overall player. While he hasn’t lived up to that ADP, his drafters are feeling good about him going forward. Plus, what rookie could live up to that kind of hype? Malik Nabers, that’s who.
Nabers was drafted 48th overall and is currently the WR2 and the 12th-highest scoring player. I wrote about my preference for Nabers over Harrison, and have also stated that Brian Thomas Jr. is going to surprise many this year. Thomas currently sits at WR14 after being drafted as the WR46. Although Trevor Lawrence has struggled, Thomas has operated as his top option. Xavier Worthy is the only player to currently sit as his exact ADP rank in terms of scoring, as he was drafted as the 87th player and is currently 87th overall in scoring. He’s WR21 as it stands now. With Marquise Brown and now Rashee Rice out for the foreseeable future, his stock will continue to rise. Ladd McConkey is starting to pop and is the WR31 despite being drafted as the WR45.
Quarterbacks Would Be Drafted Very Differently
As mentioned above, Jayden Daniels is currently the QB1 overall. Lamar Jackson is next. After that, a lot of names line up you likely wouldn’t have believed a few months ago. Josh Allen is the QB5, but ahead of him sits Baker Mayfield at QB3 and Sam Darnold at QB4. After Allen? Justin Fields is QB6, Dak Prescott is QB7 and Geno Smith is QB8. As such, five of the top eight quarterbacks were drafted 98th or later, and six of the eight were picked 72 or later.
After that, things normalize a bit with names like Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and CJ Stroud. Perhaps you would still take those guys ahead of Darnold and Mayfield. I wouldn’t blame you, but you’re certainly taking them ahead of Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford, all of whom were drafted much higher.
Zero RB Running Backs Would Go Much Earlier
The Zero RB draft strategy is loved and hated. It’s hot and cold, ice and fire. But it’s tough to argue with the results through four weeks of this season. With Alvin Kamara standing as the RB1 after being drafted as the RB17, he might as well be the poster child. While the rules of Zero RB can vary, 13 of the top 24 scoring running backs were drafted in the fifth round or later. In the sixth round or later, 20 of the top 36 scoring running backs were drafted.
Of course, there have been plenty of injuries, but aren’t there always at the running back position? Bucky Irving, who was drafted as the 171st player is outscoring teammate Rachaad White, who was being drafted 35th overall. Outside of injuries, none of the top running backs have completely whiffed, but Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs are currently the RB26 and RB27, respectively, after being drafted at RB7 and RB12. Bijan Robinson, the third running back drafted, is currently the RB21. Breece Hall is RB16 after being drafted at RB2. Maybe these guys will get things going. After all, it’s only been four weeks, but there’s no doubt that players like Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins and Brian Robinson would be going a whole lot higher.
