This has been a rough year for Fantasy Football managers. How do I know this?
During my Fantasy Games Won tracking, I created a parallel statistic (dFGW) for draft slot. Regular FGW will not raise expectations for a player based on draft slot, while dFGW will. It’s a tough rubric for fantasy players as it uses replacement players whenever a player isn’t in starting lineups – but if a player has positive dFGW, it’s pretty inarguable that they are having a good season.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Who Won & Lost Week 7?
Though 7 weeks in 2021, 42 non-kicker/-non-defensive players had positive dFGW. The first 7 weeks of 2022 we had only 21 players over the threshold. Last year we had 24. This year? We’re down to 18. Not to mention only 1 QB (Lamar Jackson) is making the grade.
2024: The year we had to lower the bar for fantasy football expectations.
A quick Fantasy Games Won (FGW) primer:
- FGW is a statistic that converts fantasy points into fantasy wins.
- Players get positive FGW points for outscoring average fantasy starters and negative points for below-average scores.
- A player can score up to +0.5 FGW for increasing your chances of winning from 50% to 100% or down to -0.5 for dropping your chances from 50% to 0%.
- Percent started matters – 0% started throttles your FGW down to 0.
For a longer explanation, check out the 2023 FGW launch on my blog. The stat hasn’t changed since its inception.
Who Won Week 7?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 39.4 | 100% | 0.35 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 30.0 | 96% | 0.32 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 25.7 | 99% | 0.26 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | RB | 24.7 | 100% | 0.24 |
| 5 | Joe Mixon | RB | 25.4 | 91% | 0.23 |
| 6 | Breece Hall | RB | 23.1 | 98% | 0.21 |
| 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 21.2 | 99% | 0.20 |
| 8 | Bijan Robinson | RB | 21.8 | 99% | 0.18 |
| 9 | Denver | DEF | 20.0 | 69% | 0.18 |
| 10 | Kenneth Walker | RB | 22.3 | 89% | 0.17 |
| 11 | Kyren Williams | RB | 19.6 | 100% | 0.14 |
| 12 | Cameron Dicker | K | 21.0 | 51% | 0.14 |
| 13 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 17.9 | 100% | 0.13 |
| 14 | Mark Andrews | TE | 18.1 | 65% | 0.13 |
| 15 | DK Metcalf | WR | 17.9 | 93% | 0.12 |
- Big Monday Night for the Ravens – Lamar wins the week, Derrick Henry gets a top 5, and Mark Andrews is seemingly back from the dead in time for Halloween. Was probably a weird Tuesday morning for casual NFL fans that forgot there was a 2nd Monday Night game. They were distracted by an awesome display from Cameron Dicker, the Kicker.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, only 96% started. Inexcusable. I will even accept Joe Mixon at 91%. Gibbs at 96% better means we had 4% retirement by Gibbs owners so far this year.
- Breece Hall had a pretty good game given that the Jets oh played about half of one…oh man, my nausea’s coming back.
- I need something to settle my stomach. Let’s look at Kyren Williams. He’s scored 12.9 or more half-PPR points in every game he’s played this year. He’s the Tums of fantasy football. Let me just dwell on his stats for a moment and imagine he was on all my fantasy teams.
Who Lost Week 7?
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | FGW |
| 15 | Jameson Williams | WR | 0.1 | 53% | -0.13 |
| 14 | David Montgomery | RB | 6.5 | 89% | -0.13 |
| 13 | Younghoe Koo | K | 2.0 | 100% | -0.14 |
| 12 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 3.3 | 73% | -0.14 |
| 11 | Stefon Diggs | WR | 4.8 | 92% | -0.15 |
| 10 | Zay Flowers | WR | 3.5 | 85% | -0.16 |
| 9 | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5.4 | 94% | -0.16 |
| 8 | Tank Dell | WR | 0.0 | 69% | -0.17 |
| 7 | Tyreek Hill | WR | 1.8 | 82% | -0.18 |
| 6 | New York Jets | DEF | -3.0 | 81% | -0.18 |
| 5 | Jayden Reed | WR | 2.0 | 90% | -0.19 |
| 4 | DeVonta Smith | WR | 0.3 | 81% | -0.20 |
| 3 | Deebo Samuel | WR | 0.0 | 84% | -0.21 |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | QB | 5.3 | 82% | -0.26 |
| 1 | Jayden Daniels | QB | 5.2 | 95% | -0.30 |
- Jayden Daniels: Got hurt.
- C.J. Stroud: Didn’t get hurt? Rough week to be trotting out Texans.
- Deebo Samuel: Didn’t get hurt? His 84% started due to his illness not showing up on the injury report won me at least one fantasy matchup.
- The Jets: Didn’t get hurt? Oh, no, wait, just about all the Jets did get hurt.
- I have to stop this bit before I get to a sombre injury like Brandon Aiyuk. At least Aiyuk is will no longer keep chasing down the fantasy LVP. You can’t keep getting negative FGW if you’re not playing.
Week 7 Junior Varsity All-Stars
| # | Player | Pos | Pts | %St | bFGW |
| 1 | Rachaad White | RB | 26.1 | 11% | 0.24 |
| 2 | Jonnu Smith | TE | 19.1 | 0% | 0.22 |
| 3 | Rashod Bateman | WR | 20.1 | 7% | 0.16 |
| 4 | Tank Bigsby | RB | 23.8 | 34% | 0.15 |
| 5 | Javonte Williams | RB | 24.6 | 44% | 0.13 |
| 6 | Russell Wilson | QB | 26.9 | 1% | 0.13 |
| 7 | David Njoku | TE | 18.6 | 51% | 0.10 |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | QB | 30.0 | 52% | 0.09 |
| 9 | Cade Otton | TE | 14.0 | 20% | 0.09 |
| 10 | Hunter Henry | TE | 13.2 | 15% | 0.08 |
| 11 | Kareem Hunt | RB | 21.3 | 54% | 0.08 |
| 12 | George Pickens | WR | 19.6 | 54% | 0.08 |
| 13 | Brian Thomas | WR | 19.6 | 55% | 0.08 |
| 14 | Will Dissly | TE | 12.1 | 0% | 0.07 |
| 15 | Mark Andrews | TE | 18.1 | 65% | 0.07 |
- Last week, it was Sean Tucker. This week, it was Rachaad White. These aren’t the steady fantasy starters you’re looking for. Not to mention Bucky Irving might actually be the best back in Tampa.
- Jonnu Smith – that’s a name I haven’t heard in a long, long time.
- Rashod Bateman with his first ever 20 half-PPR game. Now he may cross into double-digit percent started for the first since Week 8 of 2022, when he put up 0 points at 43%. It’s a trap!
- Scruffy-looking Baker Mayfield still with only 52% started. He’s averaging over 30 fantasy PPG over his last 4. He’s having a Junior Varsity season for the ages – at 0.70 bFGW, he’s almost at the mark of the season leaders last year.
Midseason MVP Leaderboard (Total FGW)
| # | Player | Pos | Week 01 | Week 02 | Week 03 | Week 04 | Week 05 | Week 06 | Week 07 | FGW |
| 1 | Derrick Henry | RB | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1.26 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | QB | 0.11 | -0.08 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.32 | -0.03 | 0.35 | 0.89 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.35 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.26 | 0.85 |
| 4 | Brandon Aubrey | K | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 | -0.06 | 0.64 |
| 5 | George Kittle | TE | -0.06 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| 6 | Justin Jefferson | WR | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.62 |
| 7 | Ja’Marr Chase | WR | -0.06 | -0.14 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.41 | -0.05 | 0.07 | 0.62 |
| 8 | Nico Collins | WR | 0.06 | 0.23 | -0.03 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| 9 | Kyren Williams | RB | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.59 |
| 10 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.32 | 0.53 |
| 11 | Alvin Kamara | RB | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.02 | 0.17 | -0.08 | 0.04 | -0.16 | 0.51 |
| 12 | Joe Mixon | RB | 0.24 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| 13 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | K | 0.16 | 0.22 | -0.14 | -0.05 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.50 |
| 14 | Kenneth Walker | RB | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.19 | -0.04 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| 15 | Chris Godwin | WR | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.04 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.33 | -0.04 | 0.41 |
| 16 | A.J. Brown | WR | 0.18 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| 17 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | -0.20 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| 18 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | -0.06 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| 19 | Drake London | WR | -0.19 | 0.05 | 0.07 | -0.05 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| 20 | Malik Nabers | WR | -0.05 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 0.30 |
This is the biggest lead any player has had in the season-long FGW race through 7 weeks since I started tracking the stat in 2021. Last year, Tyreek Hill had 1.44 at this point, but he was only 0.27 ahead of Christian McCaffrey. In 2022, Josh Allen (1.29) led Travis Kelce (1.23) by a slim margin. In 2021, Derrick Henry (1.49) and Cooper Kupp (1.46) were nearly tied.
When you can look at the top 20 fantasy players and see multiple kickers, two wide receivers who have missed multiple weeks (Nico Collins and Malik Nabers), and a running back who has barely played in half the games (Jonathan Taylor), you’re reminded of how unpredictable Fantasy Football can be.
Let’s hope that the second half of the 2024 fantasy regular season gives us success beyond what is predictable. Otherwise, at least we’re all going down in the fantasy football ship together. Good luck in Week 8.
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