At the end of this week, the fantasy regular season will be approaching the back nine, with every week here on out being one week closer to the playoffs and the season’s climax.
Fantasy managers have seen their rosters battered by injury, coaches’ decisions, bye weeks and trades. It is time to get to work and grind out some wins by taking advantage of the potentially big week that some of these receivers will have. And, to cap the expectation for some of your favorite stars as they face some of the league’s biggest and best in coverage.
At the end of this week, the fantasy regular season will be approaching the back nine, with every week here on out being one week closer to the playoffs and the season’s climax.
Fantasy managers have seen their rosters battered by injury, coaches’ decisions, bye weeks and trades. It is time to get to work and grind out some wins by taking advantage of the potentially big week that some of these receivers will have. And, to cap the expectation for some of your favorite stars as they face some of the league’s biggest and best in coverage.
Romeo Doubs has burned both fantasy managers, and myself, this season. However, this week he looks like he has a matchup that could make amends for previous heartache. Doubs is up against D’Angelo Ross this week. Ross has allowed the joint-third most fantasy points per route run against him so far this season. He is allowing 0.38 fantasy points per route run against him, according to Fantasy Points.
However, it is not just the singular matchup that is appealing to Doubs owners this week. Houston allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback when they play in zone coverage. They play in zone coverage 64.4% of the time and allow 0.40 fantasy points per dropback, according to Fantasy Points.
Doubs is also extremely good against zone coverage. Among the 100 players in the NFL who have run 74+ routes against zone coverage, Doubs ranks ninth with an average separation score of 0.154. He also ranks seventh in win rate. Win rate is a route where the receiver achieves a positive separation score. Doubs “wins” on nearly 20% of his routes.
Expect Jordan Love and company to attack both Ross and the zone coverage the Texans will play in with Doubs. This could be a really good WR2 week once again for the receiver who found the end zone twice last week following his one-game suspension.
Jordan Addison has only played three games so far this season, due to injuries and the bye week. He appeared to get injured in those two games. However, with the week’s rest, we can only hope he is fit and healthy again.
This week, Addison has a matchup against Carlton Davis. Regular readers of this column will recognize Davis’ name as he has appeared multiple times this season. He is tied for seventh in fantasy points allowed in routes run against him this season and has allowed some big weeks to fantasy receivers so far this season.
In his limited appearances, Addison has been excellent in gaining separation. Out of players who have run more than 20 routes against man coverage, Addison has an average separation score of 0.391. This ranks, believe it or not, fourth among qualifying players. In zone coverage, out of receivers who have run 30+ routes against the coverage, Addison ranks third in separation score. His separation score of 0.255 is bettered only by Brandon Aiyuk and Noah Brown. As the Lions are one of the more balanced teams in the NFL in terms of their man vs. zone coverage balance, it is good to see Addison win against both.
This should be a good week for Addison as he bids to show more of his 2023 form.
It is sometimes hard to tell fantasy managers which receiver is the one to target for fantasy start sit decisions. However, this week it appears Quentin Johnston is the one to fire up and start.
Johnston is up against Starling Thomas, who is tied for the ninth-most fantasy points allowed (0.35) on routes run against him. Johnston is scoring 0.36 fantasy points per route run.
With Gus Edwards on injured reserve (IR), Justin Herbert threw the ball 34 times last Sunday. This was the most he has thrown the ball so far this season, eclipsing the 27 pass attempts he mustered against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.
With potentially more targets and a good matchup, Johnston is a Flex-worthy play this week for fantasy managers.
This Thursday night matchup between the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints has the lowest over/under of the week. According to Vegas Insider, the over/under line is just 37 points. The Saints will be without Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave and Derek Carr. The Broncos have been in two games under 20 points so far this season and there could be a chance this one makes three.
Sutton will be a fine option in PPR leagues as he is receiving 23.2% of his team’s targets. However, he will struggle to make big plays against Marshon Lattimore, who has the lowest fantasy points per route run against him (0.12) out of any cornerback playing in Week 7.
Darnell Mooney is having a fine season and is currently the fantasy WR18 for the season. However, the Atlanta Falcons have a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week.
While Drake London has a favorable matchup, the same cannot be said for Mooney. Riq Woolen is only allowing 0.13 fantasy points per route run against him — third-lowest of any cornerback playing in Week 7. He is also only seeing targets on just 8.8% of routes run against him.
Mooney should firmly be in the sit camp for fantasy managers this week.
Amari Cooper joins the Buffalo Bills and gives them a big play threat. However, this will be a real baptism of fire for the former five-time Pro Bowler.
L’Jarius Sneed has been, statistically, one of the best corners in the NFL this season. He is only allowing 0.21 fantasy points per route run against him. With Cooper only just getting the playbook and needing time to create chemistry with Josh Allen, it could be a rough week for Cooper.
Expect Cooper to be in the WR3/Flex territory or worse this week. It is hard to see the ceiling for him this week.
8+ years writing about fantasy football. Member of the FSWA.
@5yardrush on Twitter. I run a podcast called 5 Yard Rush and I co-author a book every year called the Fantasy Football Playbook
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