Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings & Projections: Defenses (DST)

In Week 4 we learned a few new things about which quarterbacks and offenses are worth targeting, so let’s check in.

• Tyler Huntley got his first start for the Dolphins, and it didn’t go particularly well. He was only signed a week prior so it stands to reason that he’ll get a bit better as he plays in this system more. But right now it feels like everything needs to go right for Mike McDaniel’s offense to look competent, and that includes Tua Tagovailoa being on the field. The current ETA for Tua’s return is Week 8, so we will see at least two more weeks of Huntley under center (the Dolphins have their Bye in Week 6). Until he’s back, I’m comfortable starting most defenses against Miami.
• In Andy Dalton‘s second week as the Panthers’ quarterback, he had a solid game, but not on the level of his hot start in Week 3. Dalton’s ball security and sack avoidance limit the fantasy upside for opposing defenses. For me this lands the Panthers in that middle tier where I’m willing to start good defenses against him, but not with much excitement.
• Patriot’s Coach Jerod Mayo re-affirmed that Jacoby Brissett is their starter despite the bad results, and Drake Maye is still a prospect. We’ll see how long this holds up, but I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if they stuck to this plan all season, and that’s great news for us defense streamers. The Patriots’ offensive line is quite porous, so the sack upside is significant each week, and a quarterback change wouldn’t really change that. The Patriots are a streaming target for basically any defense.
• Caleb Williams continues to progress in the right direction, from the Bears’ perspective. Last week he avoided turning the ball over and picked up a solid 24-18 win against the Rams. We haven’t seen enough to completely remove him from the streaming target conversation, but a couple more results like last week would get there. It helps that the bears aren’t facing any particularly scary defenses for the next few weeks.
• Bo Nix might have only led the Broncos to 10 points last week, but he did it while recording his second straight game with zero sacks and zero turnovers. Because fantasy scoring weights those two categories so heavily, you really need to be prone to at least one of them to be a good fantasy target. He might not be doing it nearly as well as Jayden Daniels, but Nix has successfully exited the must-target rookie club.
• Jordan Love had a rocky return to action for the Packers last week, with a rough first half that included two of his three interceptions. But Love turned it on in the second half, and ultimately made it close against an excellent Vikings defense, who he held out of the top 10 fantasy defenses for the week, despite four team turnovers. I expect Love to continue to improve as he gets more distance from his Week 1 knee injury, and I’m not interested in starting defenses against the Packers.

Streaming Defenses Start/Sit Lineup Advice

Week 5 is when defense streaming really begins. The picture of which offenses are worth targeting is coming into focus, and options are more limited thanks to byes beginning this week. So competition for defenses on the waiver wire is elevated and should stay high for most of the rest of the season. I think $1 FAAB bids for streaming defenses are worthwhile, and a bit more for the Vikings. In leagues where streaming is popular and you have at least 6 bench spots, I think it can often be worth stashing a defense to plan ahead.

There are four teams on bye this week, DET, LAC, PHI and TEN. That’s at least one great offense to target and a couple good defenses absent, so the squeeze is on for streaming. There are aren’t a ton of different defenses I feel comfortable starting this week, but fortunately four of this week’s best options are available in a majority of leagues. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter and Threads.

Week 5 D/ST Projections

Matchups

1. DEN vs LV: The Broncos’ offense might be a work in progress, but their defense has been excellent. In back-to-back weeks they’ve held two offenses to under 10 points that previously looked great – the Buccaneers and Jets. The Raiders’ offense has not been it this season, with Gardner Minshew II‘s job security feeling low, and trade rumours swirling around star receiver Davante Adams. I’m expecting a low-scoring slog with potential for plenty of sacks by the Broncos at home.
2. SEA vs NYG: Last week, Daniel Jones and the Giants proved to be a get-right game for a struggling Cowboys defense. Now they must cross the continent to face a Seahawks defense that has turned in good fantasy performances in every game not against the Lions. Sure, that was against the struggling Denver, New England and Miami offenses, but the Giants are every bit as bad as those three.
3. WAS vs CLE: The Commanders’ defense was supposed to be the worst in the league, and they were through three weeks. But a funny thing happened last week – while Jayden Daniels was playing like an MVP candidate on offense, the Commanders held a pretty good Arizona Cardinals team to just 14 points, and sacked Kyler Murray four times. One game does not make them a great defense, but it helps me feel confident starting them in the best possible matchup – the Browns. Deshaun Watson is the most-sacked quarterback in the league this year by a decent margin, hitting the dirt 19 times when the next-most-sacked QB is Caleb Williams with 16. At 1% rostership the Commanders are an excellent streaming option.
4. MIN vs NYJ: If you’re a regular reader you know that I put significantly more weight on the quality of the QB matchup than I do on the strength of the actual defense. Every year there are one or two defenses that rise above that paradigm and become undroppable, and it’s looking like the Vikings might be that defense. This week they get to face an Aaron Rodgers-let Jets offence which has shown flashes of strength, but failed to reach double-digit points against the Broncos. The Vikings are a good start this week, and are absolutely worth a bench spot through Weeks 6 and 7 when they have a Bye and a game against Detroit. Starting in Week 8 they have an excellent schedule and should be viable starters for the entire rest of the season.
5. NE vs MIA: Last week was Tyler Huntley‘s first start for the Dolphins, after signing only a week prior in response to Tua Tagovailoa‘s injury. Tua is on track to return Week 8, but it’s not Week 8 yet and this offense looks totally hapless without him. Huntley didn’t put up the huge sack and turnover numbers we like to see from backup quarterbacks, but a fumble, a safety and a measly 12 points where enough to make the Titans the #7 defense in fantasy for the week. The Dolphins are a good if not great defense target for at least three more weeks, and the Patriots are certainly in the category of teams that can capitalize on that.
6. CHI vs CAR: Andy Dalton, in his second start for the Panthers, proved that he is better than Bryce Young, but that’s a pretty low bar to clear. He doesn’t offer a ton of mistake upside, with just one turnover and two sacks in two games. But he’s still commanding one of the weaker offenses in the league and the Bears are the best defense he’s had to face yet this year.
7. MIA @ NE: The Patriots’ decision to protect Drake Maye by continuing to start Jacoby Brissett is probably a good long-term move and good for us defense streamers, even if it means there’s little fantasy value to find from offensive Patriots players. Last week against the 49ers Brisset committed his first two turnovers of the season, and raised his sacks taken total to 15, which ties for third in the league. The Dolphins have a real problem on offense and might not have the best defense, but their defense was able to turn in two solid fantasy weeks against the Jags and Seahawks, both better offenses than the Patriots.
8. SF vs ARI: Kyler Murray‘s Cardinals have fallen short of expectations in back-to-back games now, including against a Commanders defense that was supposed to be terrible. Their schedule’s not getting any easier as they visit the 49ers this week. The turnover probability might not be the highest, but I see a lot of potential for Sacks from a good 49ers pass rush.
9. CAR @ CHI: Caleb Williams played his best game yet against the Rams last week, where he avoided turnovers and tied a season-high 24 team points. He still took a healthy 3 sacks, and one game is far from enough to declare his turnover problem solved. In a week without tons of better options, the Panthers could be a sneaky low-end streamer if you’re down to bet against the Rookie.
10. BAL @ CIN: Alarm bells were blaring for a struggling Bengals offense before they picked up their first win against the Panthers. The Ravens’ defense seemed awesome last week, shutting down a Bills offense that had Josh Allen looking like an early MVP candidate. To be the #3 defense in fantasy against Josh Allen, without a defensive touchdown, is no easy feat. I think the quality of Baltimore on defense and the struggles of Cincinnati’s offense overlap into playable territory here.